Sergio Ermotti
Analyst · the media
Thank you. Clearly, I'm not able to predict this ongoing discussion and the outcome of the Basel 4 discussions. So, my remarks were clearly based on the current regulatory environment. Although, as you know we are managing the bank with at least 3% buffer above the minimum requirement, so we are also in that sense taking in account any potential future regulatory changes. And of course, as a consequence of that we would also adapt and change and recalibrate our 13% requirement. So, in that sense we are - if you look at our current binding constraint, it's leverage ratio we always say that we believe that 20, 30 bps in addition to the 3.5 level is sufficient. So, we achieved that level. So, it means that we can - looking forward look at implementing - continue to implement our capital return story with progressive increases of our baseline dividend and complemented with share buyback. And this is going to be driven by profitability. So, if we are able to generate cash and we say at least 50% will be paid out. Of course, we will take into consideration any potential outcomes of the Basel discussion, any other cyclical consideration we need to take in account, any consideration on the growth additions. But we remain firm in our intention not to retain unnecessary capital buffer above what is already a very strong and solid set of overall equity and loss absorbing capacity because I like to reiterate that the 80 billion of capital base we have, a very strong 81 component, very strong TLAC component which by the way is not coming for free. So that's a reason why I think that there is a point in time in which we are keen also to reflect to shareholders the cost of and compensated through a balance, but a rewarding capital return policy. In respect of the outlook, I think that we - I wouldn't read too much on the change of tone other than the seasonality factor. I mean look, you know, unfortunately, I have to say unfortunately, but we have been quite right in our outlook statements in the last few years. And if I look at the incoming or the current quarter, one has to look at the seasonality factor in combination with the fact that we had pretty good run in equity markets in all asset classes and it's quite normal during this quarter to see some people taking profits or being on the sidelines. But it's nothing more than that, you can go back into the time series of what it means the Q4, but the fundamental set up and trend of our wealth management business stays intact. So, as I said, the macro picture is quite clear. But clearly the geopolitical tensions and the very good run investors had this year clearly has to be taken in consideration.