Earnings Labs

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)

Q1 2021 Earnings Call· Tue, Apr 20, 2021

$90.13

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the United Airlines Holdings Earnings Conference Call for the First Quarter 2021. My name is Brandon, and I'll be your conference facilitator today. Following the initial remarks from management, we will open the lines for questions. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded and is copyrighted. Please note that no portion of the call may be recorded, transcribed or rebroadcast without the company's permission. Your participation implies your consent to our recording of this call. If you do not agree with these terms, simply drop off the line. I will now turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Michael Leskinen, Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead sir.

Michael Leskinen

Analyst

Thank you, Brandon. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to United's First Quarter 2021 earnings conference call. Yesterday, we issued our earnings release, which is available on our Web site at ir.united.com. Information in yesterday's release and the remarks made during this conference call may contain forward-looking statements, which represent the company's current expectations or beliefs concerning future events and financial performance. All forward-looking statements are based upon information currently available to the company. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectation. Please refer to our earnings release, Form 10-K and 10-Q and other reports filed with the SEC by United Airlines Holdings and United Airlines for a more thorough description of these factors. Also, during the course of our call, we will discuss several non-GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the tables at the end of our earnings release. Joining us on the call today to discuss our results and outlook are Chief Executive Officer, Scott Kirby; President, Brett Hart; Executive Vice President and Chief Operations Officer, Jon Roitman; Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, Andrew Nocella; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Gerry Laderman. In addition, we have other members of the executive team on the line available to assist with Q&A. And now, I'd like to turn the call over to Scott.

Scott Kirby

Analyst

Good morning and thank you for joining our call today. My, what a difference a year makes. Last year at this time, demand was almost completely shut down. And we'd been burning up to $100 million per day. Thanks to our people's hard work, dedication and commitment to doing the right thing for our customers we're in a dramatically different place now. We're proud of the fact that after being up over 30 points last year, our Q1 customer NPS scores were the highest quarterly ever in United's history despite severe winter storms and higher load vectors, a testament to the enduring changes we've made to improve the customer experience. We're also pleased to confirm last week that our core cash flow for the month of March was positive and we continue to expect positive core cash flow moving forward. This confirms the view that we first shared in October 2020 that we could see the light at the end of the tunnel. We're more confident than ever in the recovery and in the long-term earnings power of United Airlines. Even with business and long haul international demand is still off by 80 plus percent. We can now squarely focus on returning to positive adjusted EBITDA as our next milestone. In fact, we now see a clear path to reaching that milestone, even with business and long haul down as much as 70%. In addition, we expect to return to positive net income once business and long haul international recover to down 35%. And as we've maintained from the beginning of the crisis, we're increasingly confident that both business and long haul will eventually recover fully. When that recovery begin, no airline is better positioned to capitalize on it than United, which is why we're so confident about returning to…

Brett Hart

Analyst

Thanks, Scott. I want to start by reiterating Scott's comments on how the United team performed in the first quarter. In the face of continued uncertainty and some severe winter storms, our team never failed to pull together but we couldn't be prouder of their performance. As just outlined in the first quarter, United made further progress on our commitment to return to new by once again ramping up investments in our customers experience including, modernizing the gate areas in our hubs, reconstructing and expanding United clubs in Newark and Denver, enhancements to the onboard experience like pre-order meal functionality and providing individualized customer feedback to our flight attendants and hard product investments, such as the continuation of our Polaris seat retrofit program and the overhaul of the interior of our narrow body aircraft. In addition, we continued to innovate and lead the industry in safety and cleanliness. We've developed new tools to deliver a safe travel experience for our customers. We are now offering an expanded COVID testing and preclearance program for travelers to Hawaii partnering with Abbott to pilot at home COVID tests for international travelers, rolling out proprietary industry-leading technology and the creation of our travel-ready center where customers can review COVID-19 entry requirements, upload any required records, including proof of COVID-19 vaccination, have them certified and access their boarding pass in advance of arriving at the airport. United is the only airline to offer this integrated capability. In the first quarter, United additionally achieved hospital grade certification for cleaning and safety from the Airline Passenger Experience Association and simpliFlying. United was the first major U.S. carrier to be certified diamond highest possible certification in this scientifically based assessment. And we continued to pursue more ways to make the flying experience as safe as possible. United is…

Jon Roitman

Analyst

Thank you, Brett, and good morning, everyone. I would first like to thank my co-workers around the globe, as everything I'm going to talk about would not be possible without them. We will return to new as a much more nimble, agile, modern and efficient operation that puts the customer at the center of everything we do. As Jerry will mention later, we are well on our way to meet our $2 billion cost efficiency target. In operations, we've made the most of the downturn and we're able to develop and execute on a number of projects that will drive meaningful and durable efficiencies. We're quick to market with initiatives during the pandemic and we intend to be quick to market with upcoming modernization work as well. I'd like to highlight a few of the most impactful initiatives that are underway. We recently rolled out agent on demand, a platform that allows customers to scan the QR code anywhere in the airport and be connected with a customer service representative live through video chat. This has proven to be a great way for customers to immediately access the care and service they need, especially during weather events. It also allows us to leverage our network of customer service professionals around the globe more efficiently. Technical operations is enhancing our industry leading United tech mobile platform, which puts relevant and critical functionality at the fingertips of our more than 4000 line maintenance technicians, allowing them to return aircraft to service more efficiently than ever. And we are rolling out similar functionality to other areas of the maintenance team as well. By the end of this year, we will have transitioned our global aircraft parts inventory to a modern warehouse tracking system, which will enable us to manage these assets more efficiently.…

Andrew Nocella

Analyst

Thanks, Jon. During March, we finally reached that demand inflection point we've been looking for and we continue to see that resurgence today. Vaccine distribution gains in the U.S. have renewed our desire as Americans to travel. Near-term demand strength was driven by domestic and short haul international leisure and VFR customers, not by our business or long haul customers well, at least not yet. Consumer confidence about air travel is clearly strengthening and we see that in all of our customer feedback. In 2020, United led with the smallest decline in TRASM of every single one of our domestic competitors. And for Q1, we expect that continued great relative [TRASM] [ph], pace of the demand recovery really started to accelerate at the end of the quarter with March passenger revenues up 69% versus February. Overall, our PRASM in Q1 2021 was down 43% and TRASM was down was down 27% versus 2019. Capacity was down 54% and total revenue was down 66% versus the first quarter of 2019. Our ATL balances increased by about $725 million in Q1 versus Q4 as the booking curve began to finally return to normal. It's nice to see the ATL balance moving in this manner, as it's the strongest indication of the strengthening of consumer confidence in travel. About 12% of our new tickets are using credits accumulated largely during the pandemic. Throughout the pandemic we have focused on making it simpler for customers to use their credits by making it easier to find, save, check balances and redeem on united.com and our app. The ease use of credits is yet another example of our customer focus along the elimination of change fees in 2020. The customer focus combined with many other commercial and product initiatives such as the completion of Polaris and…

Gerald Laderman

Analyst

Thanks, Andrew. Good morning, everyone. For the first quarter of 2021, we reported a pre- tax loss of $1.8 billion and an adjusted pre tax loss of $3.1 billion. We ended the quarter with $21 billion of available liquidity, including funds available under our revolving credit facility and the CARES Act Loan program. Average daily cash burn for the first quarter of 2021 was $9 million per day, representing a $10 million per day improvement versus the fourth quarter of 2020. As evidence of the improving demand environment, average daily, cash flow in the month of March was positive and we expect core cash flow to remain positive moving forward. We are excited to reach this milestone and no longer expect to discuss cash burn metrics going forward. Instead, we will begin to discuss metrics such as adjusted EBITDA margin that reflect our focus on the return to profitability. Last week, we priced and expect to close tomorrow, a significant debt transaction that represents the final piece of our COVID liquidity plan. Using our international route franchise and key domestic slots as collateral, we will be replacing the CARES Act Loan with a combination of $4 billion in secured notes and $5 billion in term loans with both better economics and an improved maturity profile. Specifically have we borrowed the full $7.5 billion available to us, under the CARES Act loan and including existing debt maturities, we would have had over $10 billion of debt maturing in 2025. With this new transaction, we've effectively spread these maturities over the period from 2025 to 2029. In addition, with most of the new transaction issued in the term loan market, we retained prepayment flexibility, which will be enormously helpful as we reduce that and strengthen the balance sheet moving forward. Finally, the…

Michael Leskinen

Analyst

Thank you, Jerry. We will now take questions from the analyst community, please limit yourself to one question and if needed one follow up question. Brandon, please describe the procedure to ask the questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] From Raymond James, we have Savanthi Syth.

Savanthi Syth

Analyst

Appreciate the color on how you're thinking about leisure and business recovery. I was curious on the international front, if you could talk about based on what you're seeing and hearing today, how you think the individual three entities will recover over the next couple of years?

Andrew Nocella

Analyst

Hi, Savi. It's Andrew. I'll give it a try. I think short haul Latin is already there. It's not a very business centric region for us. And demand there looks very strong, yields are a little bit weak. But that's moving ahead nicely. I do think we're pretty bullish on that part of the world. In regards to Asia and Europe, it's really hard to say I think at this point, I would tell you, I think Europe is on a faster recovery pace than Asia, but only time will tell. And as I said earlier, we're prepared to begin quite a bit of flying to the U.K. this summer, if that does open up. So I do think Europe is likely a little bit ahead of Asia. Latin America is ahead of both at this point. Hopefully that provides some color for you.

Savanthi Syth

Analyst

That's helpful. And if I might just, a clarifying question from Jerry, on the kind of the last debt raised here is, what do you expect from a kind of the interest expense standpoint looking forward once this is kind of won and done?

Gerald Laderman

Analyst

Hi, Savi. Look, there's no question when you more or less double your debt, you're going to double interest expense. But we're done with our significant debt raising. That's COVID-related and as I said going forward, there will be more routine type transactions and ultimately, we are going to be paying down debt reducing the interest expense. But one thing I point out is that, we got through this crisis, call it 20 billion of debt raise at actually very attractive rates. Historically, when airlines have been dealing with crises like these, you'd see them issue debt at double digit interest rates. All this post-COVID debt we raise had probably a blended interest rate, just over 5%. So extraordinarily attractive rates, even in this environment, no question. We have a lot of debt, more debt than we would like, obviously, and we will focus very hard over the next few years on managing that debt down.

Operator

Operator

From Deutsche Bank, we have Michael Linenberg.

Michael Linenberg

Analyst

I guess two questions here. The first two, Andrew, you talked about having wide bodies, ready to go for the summer, the Max airplanes that have been grounded, how many were grounded due to electrical? When do they come back? And then, the high density 777s that have been grounded do they come back this summer or is the risk that they don't come back at all?

Scott Kirby

Analyst

Thanks for the question, Mike. I think I'll hand it over to Jon Roitman, our Head of Operations and he can talk about the return to service for both aircraft.

Jon Roitman

Analyst

Great. Thank you, Andrew. And thanks for the question. Let's start with the Max, we have 17 of our 30 Max aircraft that are out of our schedule, obviously, due to the electrical grounding issue that Boeing identified. And we have really good collaboration with Boeing, the FAA, we think the solution, once it's formally identified, is relatively straightforward. And we're looking forward to getting those aircraft back in the very near future. Relatively Pratt powered 777, again, really productive collaboration with Pratt, Boeing and the FAA. And this progress and relative to that airplane to look forward to getting that aircraft back to safe operations in the future.

Michael Linenberg

Analyst

Great. And then, just a second question and maybe you can answer this, Andrew. I know, you recently launched the JFK service. And I know that you're out there looking for additional slots, permanent slots. I did see from your recent debt raise that some of the slot that were excluded from collateral pool were I think something on the order of 88 slots at JFK. Are those daily slot and at what point do those slots come back to you? Presumably, they're on some sort of long term lease?

Andrew Nocella

Analyst

That's an awfully complicated question, Mike. I'll try to keep it high level, but we may have to kind of go offline. So the company is engaged in slot transactions over many, many years, quite frankly, long before I got here. So at this point, in JFK, we're operating a few flights per day to Los Angeles and San Francisco, which we're excited to do after our five year absence. And we're looking forward to be able to maintain our JFK slots, and grow our operation. But we are working with the FAA to use idle field capacity that's available to us going forward versus the slots that you were referring to in those documents. But I'll we'll be happy to take this offline, if you need any more answers than that. Slot transactions over many eons are pretty complicated to track in this type of call.

Operator

Operator

From Cowen and Company, we have Helane Becker.

Helane Becker

Analyst

So I have two questions. One is probably for Scott or Brett, I think it's amazing that you guys are going down this path of culture and diversity and increasing the number of women and obviously, I would think that right with women and others in the pilot ranks. And you're being trolled on some social media platforms and other platforms for that decision. And people are saying that it's an unsafe choice. So what do you say to them? To convince them that people like me, I mean, not me, obviously, but people like me can be a safe pilot. And then, the other question is a business related question with respect to how you're thinking about - I think Andrew said that, Latin was outperforming the rest of international right now. Are you thinking about that just in terms of adding more service to the region to capture more travel down there or are you kind of happy with the exposure you have? So thanks very much.

Brett Hart

Analyst

This is Brett. I will take the first question. So we, as you think about, like question, we think that a true untapped, well of talent out there is with women and people of color. That we think that there have been true limitations in terms of their ability to get into this profession and one has been a clear understanding of the path to become a pilot with a major carrier like United, which we are clarifying with the Aviate program -- with the Aviate Academy. But also and most particular, it is the financial impairment and we all know that it can cost upwards of $100,000 to go through the entire process of becoming a pilot and eventually becoming a pilot at a major commercial airline. So we think that at the end of the day, there's an enormous amount of talent out there in these areas where that we can, quite frankly, be advantaged by pursuing. You just have to make sure that people understand that the opportunities are available. And the other thing to keep in mind is that, there's nothing about our selection process, nothing about the certification process and the FAA, nothing about the training program that is changing in any way, shape, or form. We're talking about 5000 pilots over the course of what is the better part of the next decade and up to 50% we're targeting for women and people of color. That is not an outrageous number of people in a country of over 300 million people. And I'm sure you agree with that and I'm sure that most people can understand that logic as well but we're excited. And at the end of the day, we think this will be a competitive advantage for us.

Scott Kirby

Analyst

Helane in regards from the second part of your question, in Latin America, what I would say is, this summer, we're planning to be at our 2019 levels already and there's very few parts of our airline, we're at that level. We have a great Latin American franchise. However, it's been historically very Houston-centric and we've taken the opportunity in the recent months and going forward to diversify that portfolio to now include more out of Los Angeles, Washington and New York and our intention is to keep that. And so we're really excited about that. We're going to take our Latin system from very Houston-centric to more diversified across the entire United network.

Operator

Operator

From Wolfe Research, we have Hunter Keay.

Hunter Keay

Analyst

Believe, this one is first Scott, want to talk about labor for a minute? I'm kind of curious what you might prioritize in a post-COVID world that might be new and out of the box, I kind of look to you is sort of the most likely airline to craft something that's flexible and creative, forward thinking. Is it maybe some flexibility on like, minimum pay maybe like, scope? Well, what are your priorities, if you think about sort of re-crafting these CBAs?

Scott Kirby

Analyst

Well, thanks for giving us the kudos for being the ones that are most likely to think creative. I think you're correct. But unfortunately, we're not -- we have some ideas, but they have to be win-win solutions, I think there are some ways to create win-win solutions. We demonstrated that with our pilots, going through the crisis, where we negotiated a deal with them that's going to turn out quite well for them. Because the payroll support program meant that some of the insurance policy that we bought wasn't really needed. But it was a fantastic and important for us to be able to keep the airline intact and be ready to come back on the other side of the crisis. And it's an example of the kind of win-win solutions that we can have. I think we've created a lot of trust as we've gone through the crisis with our Union partners and with the front line, one of the addition -- in addition to minimizing our cash burn, one of the other benefits of be accurate, about predicting the course of the crisis has been the credibility that we've gained with our team. And because I think we're going to have some opportunities but I'm not prepared to share here today, until we get them nailed down with our teams at a negotiating table. But thanks for the kudos.

Hunter Keay

Analyst

Yes, no problems, guys. Thank you. And then, Jerry, just to follow up on an earlier question, on the debt. Any updated thoughts on how you're thinking about, well, I guess, it's a simple question, I can think about the ATL now that it's building again. And then, how much of these debt maturities over the next few years, you expect to roll versus pay down? Just sort of as you see things right now. Thank you.

Gerald Laderman

Analyst

Hey, look, we're all happy to see the ATL building, as we kind of get back to a healthy industry. In terms of debt maturities, well, certainly this year, we have what I would describe as normal debt maturities, I think it's out somewhere to $1.5 billion and $2 billion. And, we will continue, particularly for aircraft debt as it amortizes and matures, aircraft become unencumbered. That's a good thing. There'll be a mix. We are laser focused on paying down debt. And the pace of that will depend on the pace of the recovery and so we'll balance combination of paying down debt, maybe a little bit of refinancing of some of the debt. And then, the big sort of variable we have is how much new aircraft financing we would do. One of the quickest ways to move to lower debt balances, it's pay cash for aircraft, but even that's not off the table going forward. So we'll see.

Operator

Operator

From JPMorgan, we have Jamie Baker.

Jamie Baker

Analyst

First one for Andrew, when in the absence of much corporate demand, how much of your domestic capacity is allocated to basic economy fares right now? And how does that compare to this point in 2019?

Andrew Nocella

Analyst

Hi, Jamie. I will try to answer it that way, I would say that, given where we are in the pandemic and how demand looks and everything else that we've seen occur over the last 12 months, basic economy is a small portion of our business right now -- below, in single digits is what I'm saying.

Jamie Baker

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. And not meaningfully different this time in 2019, I mean, single digit then as well?

Andrew Nocella

Analyst

In the past, it was a higher number.

Jamie Baker

Analyst

Oh, okay, interesting. And then, second, I'll direct this to Scott. Scott, you've been generous with us in the past in sharing your views on the competitive interplay between your airlines business model and that ultra low cost carriers, how does the COVID experience alter that competitive dynamic in your opinion?

Scott Kirby

Analyst

I don't, well, if anything, I don't think in the long-term, it altered it a whole lot. Other than I would say that as we went through the pandemic, the fact that United Airlines had -- would should have the most exposure to COVID of any airline in the country, we have the biggest business demand, we have the largest international network and those are the two things that are still down over 80%. We should have by all rights been hit the hardest. But we have -- it's hard to sort through all the numbers because everyone reports cash burn and things differently, including us, by the way. But, if I look at cash flow from operations, which I started to do, because that at least is a GAAP metric and there are fewer adjustments to it, then you adjust it for size. We pretty consistently have been the number one or number two airline, not just compared to our big network carrier competitors but compared to a low cost carrier competitors. And that's remarkable and I mean we had a head start in this race and we have managed to stay ahead. And what that means is, we have prepared ourselves and primed ourselves, for when the recovery really comes back. And the fact that, we can be at the front of the pack or near the front of the pack, while we have, essentially two-thirds of our business down 80%, which by the way, just for round numbers, sort of roughly a third of our business is domestic leisure, a third is domestic business, a third is long haul International, those numbers aren't exact, but they're close enough for government work. And, we saw two thirds of our business down 80% and we're still able to put…

Operator

Operator

From Bernstein, we have David Vernon.

David Vernon

Analyst

Andrew, first question for you on the domestic turn environment around leisure, is there a way you can help us understand kind of how fares today for leisure travel on a like-for-like basis or trending relative to maybe 2019 level? Not only just in the quarter, but as you look out in the booking curve for the summer months? I'm just trying to get a sense for -- the industry engaged in sort of demand stimulation here? Or is this just a question of demand is coming back and you're able to take fares up with that rising demand?

Andrew Nocella

Analyst

Sure, I'll give it a try. David, we know we've been really focused on trying to figure out how to manage yields going forward. And quite frankly, as we look forward to this summer, particularly certainly in mid-June, we see our domestic leisure yields as positive versus 2019. And that's one of the things from an RM perspective we've been talking about a long time is how do we get our pricing and yield to -- look, really, sorry, yields to look like they were in the past. And I think we've made incredible progress. That is not necessarily true in Q2. Our yield outlook is, as you see reflected in our revenue, outlook, not as strong, we were selling lower yields in the Q2 period, earlier in the year. But we do see this inflection point it is in mid-June. And I'm really pleased to see that we expect to have low factors that start with [8] [ph] and yield, hopefully from a domestic leisure point of view, that are positive year-for-year. I mean, we still have a long way to go. And this summer is still quite a ways off. But I'm really actually quite bullish that we've turned the corner on that.

David Vernon

Analyst

That's really helpful. Thank you. And then Jerry, maybe to follow up on the question before about the leveraging, if we get to that level of say, 2023 and EBITDA margins are better, can you book end, or is there a way to think about, an annual rate of debt reduction, like how steep should we be thinking about that deleveraging sort of curve happening? And I know, there's going to be a lot of quotes and things with their capital risk, things like that. But if you think about how much cash you might ever want to pay down at that future, even margin level, what number should we be kind of penciling out on an annual basis.

Andrew Nocella

Analyst

And you answered your own question. There are lots of puts and takes. And it will also depend on the cadence of new aircraft deliveries and what we expect to do there. So it's a little premature to answer that, that question. And we have a lot of flexibility in our ability to pay down debt. That's why we kept as much debt as we could free payable to give us that flexibility.

Operator

Operator

From Evercore, we have Duane Pfennigwerth.

Duane Pfennigwerth

Analyst

I wanted to ask you about visibility, just the general concept of revenue visibility, as the booking curve recovers, your visibility should start to recover your capacity plan feels fairly tight out into 2Q, certainly relative to some of your legacy peers. It doesn't sound like you're expecting much of any acceleration close in, which could happen. It could happen in a month like June. So where does visibility stand today versus ‘normal times’. And are we getting back to putting out guides that you hope to exceed.

Andrew Nocella

Analyst

I'll start Duane.. So thanks for that question. You guys on the analysts on this call have been remarkably polite to us today. Because, as we can see, in both the stock price and in our pre-calls, according to Mike Leskinen, then the only thing everyone cared about was, why is the revenue guide different than other airlines, we obviously going to take this opportunity to -- that's close enough to your question to attempt to address it. And first I've rewind to 13 months ago, March 10 of 2020 at the JPMorgan conference, where we talked about the fact that we thought this was going to be deep and last longer and we were the only airline who did that. This now is the fifth quarter in a row since then, where we've been on calls where our outlook felt more are conservative I suppose, than our competitors last four, it's turned out to be true. And on March 10 of last year, we actually, first coined the term hope is not a strategy. And I just happened to be reading another book on Winston Churchill, the splendid and the Vile, I've read a bunch I love Winston Churchill and I came across last night, a quote that I think is relevant for this. The day after -- the morning after Churchill had just been nominated the Prime Minister -- become the Prime Minister of England, in the darkest hour, the whole quote is great, but the end of it is, although impatient for the morning, I slept soundly and had no need for cheering dreams, that are better than dreams. And my God, I couldn't agree more. And we have used facts, data science and logic to guide our approach. And just forcing back already said this on…

Operator

Operator

From Stifel, we have Joseph DeNardi.

Joseph DeNardi

Analyst

Two quick ones, I think. Andrew along the lines of getting back to positive yields and loads with the start with -- that eight by June what percentage of 2019 capacity does that assume you're flying domestically? What's the capacity assumption behind that?

Andrew Nocella

Analyst

As you go through the quarter that June is our inflection point where we add a lot more capacity. We will get back to you with the exact domestic number. But it's in June where we have the inflection change and we're definitely doing a lot more domestic than we are doing international.

Joseph DeNardi

Analyst

Okay. And then just a clarification, I think you said that co-brand spend is now positive versus 2019. Correct me if that's wrong? And then maybe a question for Andrew or Scott, like when you think about kind of the factors that give you confidence that demand will not be structurally impaired as a result of COVID? How much how important is what you're seeing on the Co-brand portfolio? Thank you.

Andrew Nocella

Analyst

To your first one, I did not say that, just to be clear. I think the portfolio is, in many ways, just a great asset for United along with the whole frequent flyer program. And we are pleased to nurture it and grow it. And again, it has not been impacted nearly as much as the top-line passenger revenue number as we thought would be and it is actually the case, you're really pleased by that. So we're really focused on growing it. We've seen things starting to return to normal, though we're not exactly at normal. We've wanted two new cards recently, the most recent is the Quest card. And Chase has been an excellent partner in building all of this. And we think we have a lot of runway in front of us for the card, as well as for the entire program. So a lot more to come on this. We have high expectations, and we think we're going to deliver a lot of value out of the program in the long run.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now take questions from the media. [Operator Instructions] From Reuters, we have David Shepardson.

David Shepardson

Analyst

Thanks for having the call today. I want to follow up on the 777 powered by the Pratt-Whitney engines. Walk us through the schedule that will take to inspect those plans and get them return to service. And when do you anticipate the first planes being returned to service?

Jon Roitman

Analyst

As I alluded to before, it's just too premature for us to outline what that schedule looks like. I'll just tell you that, again, we've had really productive collaboration with and there's progress. And, we're really looking forward to getting the aircraft back in the air safely.

Operator

Operator

From CNN, we have Chris Isidore.

Chris Isidore

Analyst

Yes, as you're talking about doing hiring. When would you expect that you would get totally to 2019 hiring levels mean staffing levels again? Or do you think that even when traffic is bad, you'll be functioning with fewer employees? And how many fewer employees?

Jon Roitman

Analyst

So we do expect when we return to new to be more efficient. We look at things like our management, administrative headcount, and we're going to keep it at a permanently lower level, for example. So I think we will be back to 100% headcount, when we're back to a little more than 100% of our 2019 capacity, which likely happen into this year or sometime in the next year.

Operator

Operator

From Bloomberg, we have Justin Bachman.

Justin Bachman

Analyst

I wanted to ask two part question first on the 737 max and the return there. Could you talk a little bit about what sort of time lengths that work will take and when you expect those to get through and if there are any more max, if you're inspecting for any other issues? And then, secondly, a question for Andrew on yields, could you talk a little bit about how that, through the summer and then change into the fall as far as any capacity cuts that come in the fall and you expect yields to improve then or how's that looking for the winner?

Jon Roitman

Analyst

Thank you. Jon Roitman, again, I'll take the max question is, as I mentioned before, that, we have progress, and the solution seems relatively straightforward, for sure. We're in the space of just getting the service bulletin requirements finalized. And it should be pretty short process, once that's completed. Really looking forward to getting that aircraft back. And there's no other issues with the Mac's other than the 17 of our 30. That are out of our schedule right now to the grounding issue.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And we will now turn it back on Michael Leskinen for closing remarks.

Michael Leskinen

Analyst

Thanks, Brandon. And I'm going to let Andrew finish answering the last question. And then, I'll and then I'll give closing remarks.

Jon Roitman

Analyst

Hi, Justin. Regards to your yield question, as we said, we are seeing a lot more clarity in terms of this summer, where our yields are domestically or leisure oriented business are starting to look positive, which is great to see. As we enter into the fourth quarter, that's really a long time away, particularly in the latter parts of the pandemic. So I don't want to -- my crystal ball is not perfectly clear, to be honest. And a big part of it plays into the rebound in business traffic, which again, we expect to see quite a bit more of as we get into the fall, particularly as the kids go back to schools and folks start to return into their offices in September. So October is usually a very strong business month for United Airlines. And I think the industry and we'll have to see how that works out. But we're carefully managing our capacity and we expect to be significantly larger as we kind of go through the process over the next few months in fall. And we're making sure we do that with the right pricing and yield strategies for United Airlines. So we're moving in the right direction. And I think those are my comments.

Michael Leskinen

Analyst

Thanks, Andrew. And thanks to everyone for joining the call today. Please contact investor or media relations if you have any further questions and we look forward to talking to you next quarter.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.