Dave Bergman
Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is now open
Yes, I mean, as you think about running out the rest of the year, I mean, in North America, it is a lot of kind of a put and take between wholesale and DTC a little bit there. And the service levels are really improving which is great. So we are able to ship earlier for those large launches which has been very beneficial for us and we expect that in Q4 of this year. And then, when you just step back and look at the total company for the back half of the year, and you think about Q3 and Q4, just to give you a little bit more color there, on Q3 of 2019, again, we are expecting to be down 2% or 3%. When you break that by region, North America, we are expecting to be down kind of in that mid-single-digit range, which is driven largely by the timing of the off-price sales. They are down significantly in Q3 and then up significantly in Q4. And on the international front, you are probably going to see that Q3 being up in the mid-single-digit range. It is our lower quarter for international this year, but we are working through the Brazil business model change which will be comp as we get into Q4 and then also the distributor order flow for international is very Q4 weighted as well. And then, when you think about Q3 by channel, wholesale is obviously going to have the biggest impact of that lower off-price sales in Q3. And then, DTC, we are expecting Q3 growth to be kind of similar to Q2 growth. Q4 is a different story. Q4 we are expecting to be up low to mid-teen rate. A large driver of that is channel mix with a much higher off price sales in Q4. But again, no change to our overall expectation that full year off price sales will be down. And within North America, it is our easiest comp in Q4. I think we are negative 6% in Q4 of last year and the improving service levels have a big impact for us at the end of the quarter. And then on the international front, the service levels are helping a lot as well. But you also have a larger impact internationally for new door opening both partnered and owned. And then also the normalization of the Latin America business with the Brazil change. So, different puts and takes there, but hopefully that helps a little bit with the Q3, Q4 flow for you.