Scott Donnelly
Analyst · Vertical Research.
Well, I think it is mostly just people saying, "Look, I want to make sure I get it done this year to take advantage of it." And obviously, some customers want to take aircraft now. They want to do it. So those that were thinking, well, maybe I could wait 'til later on it, they want it, they’re incented to try to get it done this year. I think that what was particularly strange about our profile last year, Jeff, was as you recall, we had a very light third quarter and then a very heavy fourth quarter. And so what we're already trying to work on is, say, “Guys, we just don't want to go through that again.” So we're working with customers and say, "Look guys, we just can't do a fourth quarter delivery. We need to move some of these back into the third quarter and not end up with that very difficult hockey stick at the end of the year." So, I think fourth quarter will be a heavy quarter, which is good, but I do think the issue that, really, if I look at last year, we were too light in the third quarter. We need to move some of that volume back and get some of that delivery done. And look, the reality is that the order flow and the level of customer activity is considerably stronger than it was in this time last year. If you remember, last year, we got into this time of year and basically, conversation stopped based on the euro crisis and sovereign debt and all that sort of stuff. We haven't seen that this year. Even though there are some challenges out there, the conversations are happening. So I would expect we will bring a lot more deals to closure earlier on in the year than we did last year, where the market at Cessna and the business jet like this really kind of went quiet for 6 months before it started to pick up again in really the October kind of time frame. And those conversations are happening now. So I would expect from a timing perspective, we won't -- we're obviously not planning on seeing that period of no activity and, therefore, very light deliveries in the third quarter of the year.