Earnings Labs

Textron Inc. (TXT)

Q4 2007 Earnings Call· Thu, Jan 24, 2008

$88.42

+0.31%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to Textron's fourth earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode, and later we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And as a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. Joining us today are Mr. Lewis Campbell, Chairman, President and CEO and Mr. Ted French, CFO, and Mr. Doug Wilburne, Vice President of Investor Relations. Now, I will turn the meeting over to Mr. Wilburne. Please go ahead.

Douglas R. Wilburne - Vice President of Investor Relations

Analyst

Thanks, Lauri and good morning everyone. Before we begin, I would like to mention our discussion today will include remarks about future estimates and expectations. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risk factors, which are detailed in our annual SEC filings and also in today's press release. A calculation of 2008 ROIC, which we will be discussing today, is also attached to our press release and available on the website in the IR section. Finally, also you can find a slide deck on our website containing key data items that we are going to discuss on today's call. Finally, now moving to our results for the fourth quarter, revenues were $3.8 billion, up 18% from last year's fourth quarter. Earnings per share from continuing operations were $1.02, up 32% from $0.77 a year ago, and compared to our expectation of $0.82 to $0.92. Our EPS performance reflected good delivery execution at Cessna and Bell, which allowed for early delivery of seven jets and five helicopters, generating a $0.07 EPS benefit in the quarter. We also had an unanticipated Canadian tax benefit at TFC, which was worth about $0.02 per share, partially offset by a $0.01 of dilution related to our acquisition of AAI and Columbia Aircraft, all of which were not included in our guidance. On the cash front, full-year cash flow provided by continuing operations was $1.2 billion with free cash flow of $796 million. With that, I will turn the call over to Lewis.

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst

Thank you, Doug Good morning, everyone. Our fourth quarter culminated a year of powerful performance at Textron on many fronts. Full-year revenues were up 15%, about 13% organically by the way. EPS from continuing ops was up 32%. Free cash flow was up 15%. And I think more importantly, each of our manufacturing segments showed year-over-year operating improvement resulting in a 160 basis point increase in overall manufacturing margins. And finally, return on invested capital improved 800 basis points reaching 24.8% in 2007. Now, last year's solid results are evidence of the continuing progress we are making in our journey to become the premier multi-industry company. We fortified and expanded our future growth potential through many transformational actions taken last year, basically in the following four categories, operational improvement, capital investment, strategic acquisitions, and new product developments. Let me say more, we continue to attack operational improvement primarily through the deployment, penetration, and maturation of Textron Six Sigma into the processes by which we manage and improve our businesses. Last year, we certified an additional 153 black belts and 1,429 green belts, which now brings our totals to 890 black belts and 4,200 green belts. Because leadership is so vital in a cultural initiative like this, we've mandated that every member of our global leadership team, which comprises the top 180 leaders from around the world, attain a green belt certification. Continuous systematic business improvement and operational execution are becoming the number one cultural identifier of Textron. Happily as we look at our end-market opportunities over the next five years, we see tremendous growth potential and we are committing the necessary capital to service this demand. Let me give you some examples. At Bell, we are investing for an unprecedented expansion of output and we've made a significant amount of…

Ted R. French - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

Thank you Lewis, and good morning everyone. I want to start by reinforcing Lewis' optimism for growth. Obviously the US economy is now weaker and it is certainly more uncertain. However, we have good revenue visibility based on our solid growing backlogs, plus we continue to observe positive forward signals in the business jet marketplace. So, let me start by looking at an analysis of our fourth quarter results. Quarterly revenues increased 18%, while EPS from continuing ops was up 32%, representing another excellent conversion. Earnings per share were up $0.25 from a year ago. Volume and mix provided $0.14. Higher pricing of about 3.3% added $0.30 a share. And inflation of 3.2% cost us about $0.22. Performance was a positive $0.24. The combined headwinds of engineering, research and development, depreciation, and pension expense collectively cost $0.13, and miscellaneous items, including higher corporate expenses partially offset by favorable foreign exchange and a lower share count cost $0.04. Taxes cost $0.03, and Textron Financial was lower by $0.01. Now, let's review each of our business segments, and I will start with Cessna. Cessna's revenues and profits increased $329 million and $75 million respectively in the fourth quarter. Revenues increased due to higher volume, primarily related to Citation business jets and higher pricing. Profit increased due to the higher pricing along with the impact of higher volume and favorable warranty performance, partially offset by inflation and increased product development expense. Continued strength in orders gives us conviction in our outlook as we now have another record Cessna backlog at $12.6 billion, that's up $4.1 billion or 48% from a year-ago. Moving to Bell. Segment revenues increased $120 million for the quarter, while profit was up $36 million. Profit in the quarter was affected by the following three items, which Lewis referenced earlier.…

Douglas R. Wilburne - Vice President of Investor Relations

Analyst

Thanks, Ted and we'll begin with full year. For 2008, we expect Bell segment revenues will be up about 20%, with margins up about 30 basis points at about 8.9%. The higher revenues reflect the full-year impact and growth at AAI. Revenues also reflect delivery of about 17 V-22s, 10 H-1s, and about 580 ASVs. We are targeting 160 commercial deliveries as we concentrate this year's capacity expansion on pre-assembly production for the large military ramp-up targets in 2010 and beyond. At Cessna, we're expecting revenues to be $5.9 billion, with margins of about 16.5%, reflecting LCC and Columbia Aircraft development costs. Industrial revenue is expected to be approximately flat at $3.4 billion, with margins of about 6%. Finance revenues are projected to come in at about $885 million, with segment profit flat with '07, reflecting lower interest margins, higher loss provisions, and slightly slower portfolio growth. At the corporate level, we are assuming share buybacks of 3 million to 4 million of shares to maintain a flat share account for which we're already ahead of schedule by the way given our recent share price performance. By the way, last year we repurchased 5.9 million shares at a cost of $295 million. We are expecting interest expense of about $141 million, reflecting higher debt levels as a result of last year's acquisitions. Corporate expenses will be about $243 million and we anticipate an ‘08 tax rate of about 32%. The tax rate presents an additional headwind of about $0.06 and it basically reflects the absence of a number of unique tax benefits in 2007, as well as higher '08 income. The additional income results in higher tax rate due to fixed tax credit items, which do not scale up. Let's move to the first quarter now. We expect Bell segment revenues will be about $1.1 billion, with margins of about 8%. First quarter revenues at Cessna should be about $1.35 billion, margins of about 16.25%, reflecting delivery of about 104 jets. Industrial segment revenue is expected to be about $850 million, with a margin expectation of about 5.5%. Finally, Finance revenues should be about $205 million, with profit between $50 million and $55 million. That concludes our prepared remarks. And before we go to questions, we would like to ask that each of you limit yourselves to one question with an optional follow-up to be fair. So, Laurie with that we are now ready to open the lines please. Question and Answer

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. And our first question from the line of Nicole Parent with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Nicole Parent - Credit Suisse

Analyst

Good morning.

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst

Good morning Nicole.

Nicole Parent - Credit Suisse

Analyst

I guess first, Lewis, your bullish outlook for Cessna is appreciated, could you give us a sense when you scrub the last recession? You have international demand that's un-presidented, could you give us a sense of how you assess the quality of that backlog and have you seen any cancellations at all or any kind of customer concerns about what is going on in the marketplace?

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst

Okay. Nicole, I want to give you a really full answer on this one because we've really looked hard at this topic because we knew what we wanted to say on the call this morning, but we want to make darn sure and we have really scrubbed this data. So, let me give you some facts. Used aircraft, which is a pretty good precursor when it starts to go up but things are going to slow down some, still remains at low 10%, keep in mind, the late model aircraft, five years and younger, are just hard to get in the used aircraft market. So, a lot of those aircraft are quietly sitting there for the rest of their lives. We have not seen any observable deterioration in customer orders, we have very low… actually, I'd say almost unusually low cancellation versus normal years. So, that's not there. Net jet orders, which need to be understood in the context of where they are being sold and why, net jet orders and CitationShares are still very good. Net jet US orders primarily are for replacements, so that will continue and then they've really grown strong in Europe and really picking up steam there. I've mentioned order cancellations and then Jack and his team recently had a sales meeting kickoff in the west and the sales force is really bullish on what they see and the customers they have contacted. Another interesting fact, which I find to be kind of cool is, that back in 2000, before we saw 9/11 and the downturn that ended up being just awful through 2003, our backlog for the next three years is now 82% higher than what the backlog was we had for the three-year period. So, the three-year period '01, '02, '03, we had 693 jets on order for delivery. And for '07, '08, '09, we've 1,260 on order. So, [inaudible] look and you mentioned international versus domestic that's also a strong point. So, I would tell you if there is something coming at us, we can see it, and if it comes at us as hard as it did in '01, '02, '03, we firmly believe that we'll be able to meet the numbers that we talked about in the call here.

Nicole Parent - Credit Suisse

Analyst

Great. That's helpful. Thanks. And one other follow-up for Ted. In the charts that you gave us to walk-through from '07 to '08, you said $0.34 of headwind, I think Doug referenced $0.06 of tax and you had $0.14 of capacity. Can you just talk a little bit about what the remaining variables are and how you might be able to offset them?

Ted R. French - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

Let me see if I can find that here quickly. The headwind that’s on the chart is only depreciation and R&D, and so those other pieces are additional…

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst

Pension is actually not a headwind, it's about $0.04 of favorable tailwind this year.

Ted R. French - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

But, that’s half of what we thought it would be when we talked to you back in February at the Analyst Day.

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst

That's true. Did not come in as strongly as we thought, but it's still $0.04 favorable nonetheless.

Nicole Parent - Credit Suisse

Analyst

Thank you.

Ted R. French - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

So, it's all either.... just $0.14 of depreciation, the balance is R&D.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question from the line of Cai von Rumohr with Cowen and Company. Please go ahead?

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst

Hi, Cai.

Cai von Rumohr - Cowen and Company

Analyst

Great quarter. Great quarter. While you gave us kind of the EPS impact of both LCC and Colombia, could you give us kind of... because they're both at Cessna and what we really kind of maybe want to look at is the total [inaudible] of R&D and kind of approximately what was it in 2007 and what do you expect it to be in 2008 for Cessna and kind of going forward what should we, kind of, expect for the R&D now that LCC is launched?

Douglas R. Wilburne - Vice President Investor Relations

Analyst

I got it right here. Let me make sure I understand, you wanted a total R&D change at Cessna?

Cai von Rumohr - Cowen and Company

Analyst

Well, the total R&D at Cessna, '07 and '08, so we can kind of see… there are other things coming off because we know LCC and Colombia are moving up.

Douglas R. Wilburne - Vice President Investor Relations

Analyst

Yes, now there is other additions. Total Cessna R&D goes from a little over $270 million to $340 million. So, it's up about $68 million year-over-year. LCC is $53 million of the $68 million.

Cai von Rumohr - Cowen and Company

Analyst

Okay. And just a general sense going forward now that you have kind of committed to LCC, how much is it in absolute terms this year and kind of what's about the profile going to be over the next couple of years? So, we know… give us some kind of sense as to what this is going to… might do.

Ted R. French - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

In absolute terms, it's $53 million. It was $20 million last year, it's $53 million in '08. In '09… I've got it somewhere here but, can't put my finger on it. It goes higher in '09. We know that. It peaks at about $120 million in 2010.

Cai von Rumohr - Cowen and Company

Analyst

Excellent. Thank you very much.

Ted R. French - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

Yes.

Operator

Operator

Our next question from the line of Shannon O'Callaghan with Lehman Brothers. Please go ahead. Shannon O'Callaghan – Lehman Brothers: Good morning guys.

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst

Hi, Shannon. Shannon O'Callaghan – Lehman Brothers: Can you just give a little more flavor, you mentioned the positive indicators and expecting 570 orders, can you give us a little flavor on what are the components that go behind that?

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst

I can tell you some basic stuff. Of the 570, we got 70 LCC, and...

Douglas R. Wilburne - Vice President of Investor Relations

Analyst

500 plus 70.

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst

So, it’s 500 plus 70. I don't think… you might never hear us say this again, but I don't think we have ever given out that number before. So, whether it’s conservative or optimistic, you’ll have to think for yourself on that subject, but we normally end up at least meeting it not beating in any return out. We have a good mix of international customers, that's good, well over 50% of deliveries. We are not heavily depended on the fractional... is that number 15% approx?

Ted R. French - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

Right.

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst

So, that's fairly low. We have some other things on the horizon, and if they come true, we'll look really good. We really are having trouble meeting demand on some of our products over in Europe, because Europe has really heaten up and so we are wrestling with how we can move production around to be able to deliver a few more products here and there. So, it's just a really good balance of mix, there is nothing unusual in that book.

Douglas R. Wilburne - Vice President of Investor Relations

Analyst

I think what's really misunderstood is the depth and strength of the backlog. We've taken this backlog and torn it apart and we've modeled a scenario where order intake rates fall as... and remember we've looked at every downturn in general aviation since the Second World War and this downturn post 9/11 is by fall the worst of all of those. So, we've taken this existing backlog and we've gone back and modeled the rate of order fall-off from that we saw in the 2001, 2002, 2003 frame, and it’s pretty radical by the way. Orders fell 68% in the first year, so down two-thirds, came back to being down about a third in the second year and got back to about even by the third year. So, we've modeled that in. We've modeled the rate of cancellations, which in that last downturn were 160 some out over three years. But, because our backlog is larger, we've modeled a number twice that big into it. And when you take that and take our production plans for 2008, 2009, and 2010, which grow every year, by the way, if that same event happens to us over that three-year period of time, we'll still end up with 20 months of backlog by the end of 2010. So, it's just very, very deep and I don't think that's well understood. Shannon O'Callaghan – Lehman Brothers: Okay, great. Thanks a lot. And just on the margin on Cessna, I know you have Columbia and the incremental LCC in there, still very strong margin in the quarter, 18.4%, other than maybe slightly higher Mustang mix or anything else you are anticipating in 2008 for Cessna that we should know about in terms of a margin headwind?

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst

Just two things to put it into context. The LCC reduces Cessna's ‘08 margin by 90 basis points and Columbia reduces the margins by 70 basis points, which might be a little surprising to you, but we are adding almost a $100 million worth of revenue with Columbia and we actually will have mid-20s kind of expense next year because while we bought a business, we are also really buying and developing a product line. So, we are investing in '08 and '09 in Columbia in order to get that product offering where we want it to be, the cost structure where we want it to be, the production capability where we want it to be. So, that will be about two years of investment. So, those two things are worth about 160 basis points. So, Cessna's '08 margins would be well up in the north of 18% range, but for those two items. Shannon O'Callaghan – Lehman Brothers: Okay. [inaudible]. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Our next question from the line of Rob Stallard with Banc of America. Please go ahead.

Rob Stallard - Banc of America

Analyst · Banc of America. Please go ahead.

Good morning.

Ted R. French - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst · Banc of America. Please go ahead.

Good morning.

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst · Banc of America. Please go ahead.

Hi Rob.

Rob Stallard - Banc of America

Analyst · Banc of America. Please go ahead.

Lewis, you gave a very strong view on the strength of… with the US economy being what it is. But, I was perhaps a little bit surprised by your confidence on industrial revenues heading into 2008 that they can stay flat; you mentioned the Kautex is tied to the automotive world. Can you give us a little bit more flavor of how you come to that forecast of flat revenues in '08?

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst · Banc of America. Please go ahead.

For industrial?

Rob Stallard - Banc of America

Analyst · Banc of America. Please go ahead.

Yes.

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst · Banc of America. Please go ahead.

We understand the automotive market and we know which models we are on. So, it makes it a little bit easier for us to estimate the Kautex numbers because it's not just auto industry… it is. But it's not jus that, if you are on the wrong model even in an up year, you could be having down revenues yourselves. So, I'd say Kautex is probably pretty dug and well understood. Non-res construction so far is still supporting the Greenlee numbers, although that's not a huge contributor to our overall revenue forecast, but they are a contributor. You've got fluid and power with oil and gas very strong. We did a big field reduction of inventory at Jacobsen, so that really helps us going into '08. So, we are not trying… we don't have to bleed the field down. The new golf car, E-Z-GO should sell well in the market, and we don't really have a strong new golf course opening number out there in '08. So, we feel pretty good about that. What do I miss there?

Douglas R. Wilburne - Vice President of Investor Relations

Analyst · Banc of America. Please go ahead.

We think we reflect the environment we are seeing.

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst · Banc of America. Please go ahead.

It's hard to predict what the US economy is going to do and we try to do the best we could and kind of take it as a negative approach in industrial to make sure we didn't overstate ourselves.

Rob Stallard - Banc of America

Analyst · Banc of America. Please go ahead.

Ted, you mentioned that charge-offs in Finance have been very good. Your forecast for '08, does that imply a more historical charge-off rate?

Ted R. French - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst · Banc of America. Please go ahead.

We had an abnormally low rate, very, very strong performance in 2007. So, we are expecting it to tick up a little bit in '08, but still be at a very good level. The real drivers around the finance business are that we are seeing a little bit slower growth rates in a number of our businesses, primarily in distribution and finance, which have been our fastest growing business, but has a lot of consumer durables. So, we are actually seeing some declines in manufactured housing in marine, growth, but little bit slower in most of the rest of businesses. So, it is still growing overall, but a little bit slower. The main impact on us has been this indices mismatch between prime and labor. It hasn't been credit losses, growth is a little bit slower, but we're still getting growth. It's really been this margin compression issue that cost us about $2.5 million in the third quarter, cost us $7.5 million last quarter... in the fourth quarter. It is going to cost us about $3 million in the first quarter and then we have about $1.5 million bad news baked into the plan for the balance of the year, quarter-by-quarter which things not gone… would stay like they did here in the last two or three days, it could be a little bit of upside to us. So, we've got a fairly conservative forecast out there based on what these rates were looking like when we put this plan together, and as of the last week, they are looking very positive again, but that's fooled us a little bit in the early fourth quarter well, so we will hold on and see what happens.

Rob Stallard - Banc of America

Analyst · Banc of America. Please go ahead.

That’s great. Thanks Ted.

Douglas R. Wilburne - Vice President of Investor Relations

Analyst · Banc of America. Please go ahead.

Just one other detail on that Rob, by the way. Lewis mentioning Greenlee and strong growth we've had in the past, we've had three years in a row of double-digit growth at Greenlee, and when we put our outlook together for next year, we dropped it down into a low-single digit, just to give you an idea of kind of granularity that we are looking at there. So, a flat year at industrial is certainly in the cards unless things get considerably worse than where we are now.

Rob Stallard - Banc of America

Analyst · Banc of America. Please go ahead.

Yes, great.

Operator

Operator

Thank you and our next question from the line of David Bleustein with UBS. Please go ahead.

David Bleustein - UBS

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

Good morning.

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

Hi, David.

David Bleustein - UBS

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

Quick question. Of the 500, Lewis you mentioned, a bunch coming from international, is that similar to your shipment mix?

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

Yes, it is. Right, our delivery mix is about the same as order mix, correct.

David Bleustein - UBS

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

Okay. [inaudible] for '08?

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

Yes, it's been climbing up. It has gone from, international was 30% back probably at the start of the decade, now it's well over 50%, in fact, the order intake I think is forecasted to be about 60%.

Douglas R. Wilburne - Vice President of Investor Relations

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

We did a little over 50% international both order and delivery this year and we think the order intake will be about 60% international for '08.

David Bleustein - UBS

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

Okay. What years are these planes being booked for and are there any deliveries left at all for '08 and what does '09 look like?

Douglas R. Wilburne - Vice President of Investor Relations

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

There is nothing left for '08, there are a few models that are available in the last half of '09. So, most of what we are selling… actually, most of those that are available in '09 are already spoken for, they are just not technically signed up. They've got customers names on them. So, we are really booking 2010 right now. Basically, all products other than new models like the CJ4 are available in 2010.

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

Right now in '09, the only two models available are [inaudible] CJ1+ and the Encore+, and as Ted said, they are really spoken for, for the most part with an order under negotiation, and with respect to Mustang, we are out into 2010 now.

David Bleustein - UBS

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

Terrific. And then the last question. If you have cancellations in your '08, '09 orders books, do you have customers looking to move forward?

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

Absolutely.

Douglas R. Wilburne - Vice President of Investor Relations

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

Dying to.

David Bleustein - UBS

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

That's all I needed. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And our next question from the line of Jeff Sprague with Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Jeffery Sprague - Citigroup

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning.

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Hi, Jeff.

Jeffery Sprague - Citigroup

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Can you give me a sense of… the big picture on the LCC, how you think about the business case, whether you are looking at it on an internal rate of return or just kind of cash flow basis, but kind of the break-even volume case for the airplane?

Douglas R. Wilburne - Vice President of Investor Relations

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead.

I will start on that one. We treated this LCC no different than any other major capital investment we have to make or decided to make. So, we look at it on several different fronts. Intrinsic value is the primary one, IRR is right in there beside it. Return on invested capital, we risk adjusted based on pricing, volumes, etcetera. We even forecast to be conservative some type of downturn in the economy during the devolvement cycle. So, we don't have our head in sand there. And I think the amazing fact here is, I came to Textron in ’92 and except for a very small hiccup in the launch of the Citation 10, which was primarily due the fact we'd never done a total fly by wire aircraft, that was our first one. And come out of car business, I can tell you there are some phantom circuits that exist that you can't really wrestle to the ground until you build a few of those. And so other than the Citation 10, which was a minor, minor deal, operationing brought it up, we just haven't missed on any ship we've decided to do from when started on a piece of paper to when we delivered it to the customer, as I talked about the Mustang example. And I think that because we've done so many of them, we've done… I don't know how many new ships since we began making in jets in the early ‘70s. So, our cycles of learning on new aircraft is very high. And our understanding of the market is very high and our step-up capacity for customers is unusually high at somewhere between… well roughly two-thirds, I might say 70%, but certainly two-thirds. So, those factors allow you to be pretty accurate as it relates to what the pricing ought to be and in turn what kind of volume you should expect. And we know what the customers are doing, not many secrets in this business… sorry, not customers, but we know what the competitors are doing. And so based on all of those facts, our Board approved that for us yesterday, and we are ready to go.

Jeffery Sprague - Citigroup

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Can you give us a sense on in terms of units, what the business case would be built upon?

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead.

We expect to sell, I’ll just say hundreds of units. I don't know that we really want to give that number out. We expect to sell hundreds of units over the course of a decade or so.

Douglas R. Wilburne - Vice President of Investor Relations

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead.

One other fact that we looked at just to make sure that our historical record would support any estimate and that is I don't think there has been a jet certainly in the ‘90s. since I came here, there has not been a jet that was launched that had a forecasted delivery quantity that hasn't far exceeded the delivery quantity or the profits. So, we think we launched on time. We have a track record of keeping our costs in line. We understand how to launch a ship successfully. So, we don't... if you try to produce too many upfront, you can get in trouble, but you've got to satisfy market demand and carefully balance. We've really created a nifty airplane, but we really have been... we are very shrewd about how we did it. I think Jack and his team have done just a wonderful job on this aircraft. We are going to really spend a lot of time on it on February 6 and you can be there on phone or in person, you will find out a lot about it.

Jeffery Sprague - Citigroup

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Could you just clarify the R&D? I think the $20 million in '07 is the absolute, but the $53 million in '08 is the delta.

Douglas R. Wilburne - Vice President of Investor Relations

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead.

No.

Jeffery Sprague - Citigroup

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead.

No?

Douglas R. Wilburne - Vice President of Investor Relations

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead.

The $53 million is in absolute.

Jeffery Sprague - Citigroup

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Okay, and then the $120 million in 2010 is an absolute.

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Jeff, one of the things that we did was why we took our time on this was we wanted to make sure we knew what variance we want to produce and what it was we were designing. And you are probably remembering, because we were using an estimate that could be as much as $85 million.

Jeffery Sprague - Citigroup

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Yes.

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead.

And that's why it's tempting to add the $20 million to the $53 million, but the $53 million is the absolute number.

Jeffery Sprague - Citigroup

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Okay. I got it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And our next question from the line of Ronald Epstein with Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Ronald Epstein - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning guys.

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Hi, Ron.

Ronald Epstein - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Turning that table a little bit. Looking at Bell in a little more detail. The $30 million that you guys took on H-1, what was it up for?

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Pardon me.

Ronald Epstein - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

The $30 million charge on H-1, what's that related to?

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

That is related to the fact that we made a decision year plus ago with our customer that on the Yankee we would no longer try to re-man the cabin on that product and that we would build new cabins, and in fact build that entire helicopter as a new built helicopter. And we went outside to a source to procure those cabins and for a number of reasons I don't want to get into, the cost is higher than what was expected. We are having some discussions with the customer and with the supplier about how we are going to allocate all that additional cost among the three of us. Those discussions are not resolved, so we chose in the quarter to take a charge for the next eight upcoming lots where we would absorb potentially some of that cost in transition to getting into the new built helicopter.

Ronald Epstein - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Ted, on the H-1, when do you expect it to make money?

Ted R. French - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

We expect it to start making money after the fifth lot, which… I don't have the delivery schedule here or maybe I do. About 2010 we would start delivering profitable units.

Ronald Epstein - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Okay. And then one more Bell question, if I can. Kind of looking through some of the DoD documents, it looks like the price of the aircraft per ship potentially has gone up a lot. Does that worry you guys because going from, I guess, about $5 million airplane to something close to $12 million or $13 million, it's creeping up towards the price of a Black Hawk, does that worry you guys or not? How should we think about that?

Ted R. French - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

That’s gone up from $5.5 million to, call it round numbers, approaching $10 million.

Ronald Epstein - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Okay.

Ted R. French - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

And we believe and the customer believes that is still the best economic deal out there.

Douglas R. Wilburne - Vice President of Investor Relations

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Certainly, not something [inaudible], but it is what it is to get the performance that the customers wants to get.

Ronald Epstein - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Okay. And then just one last question. On the LCC, if you guys can answer this, from a CapEx perspective, you guys do to bricks and motor to build... it is a big cabin, right? So there should be a lot of tooling, you probably need space, or is that something you think about outsourcing?

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

We are doing this a little bit differently and that we are going to be buying more of the work outside than what we have traditionally done. So, we will limit that, but if you think about it, the total development program is about $780 million, CapEx is just a little over $100 million of that. So, it is mostly development cost.

Ronald Epstein - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

And our next question from the line of Steve Tusa with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Stephen Tusa - J.P. Morgan

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. Just a [inaudible] little bit with this Cessna margin here, if I look back at '07 and the previous few years, clearly incremental has been pretty good. Even if we strip out the incremental R&D, you are looking at a low 30% incremental margin on revenue growth in 2007 and if we do kind of the same analysis for this year, you are 13 points below that, so you are around 19%. So, that's kind of adjusting for the R&D issue, is the difference there… that big difference that we see in that number, I mean, is that really other investment and I don't know this… I don't even know what the name of this company is, you acquired Columbia again?

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Yes.

Stephen Tusa - J.P. Morgan

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

So, that is the difference?

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Columbia is 70 basis points, the LCC is 90 basis points, other growth and R&D beyond LCC, I don’t have that calculation, that's probably 15 more.

Stephen Tusa - J.P. Morgan

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

I am adjusting the entire R&D increase, so that you guys just give us the pure R&D number, it just seems like a pretty significant degradation in the core incremental margin of the business. I guess the question is, there is nothing unusual going on outside of these items you highlighted that… that number that much?

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Depreciation expense will be the next big one. I mean, this is similar to situation we have at Bell. We went for several years where big steps up in volume were eating up available capacity and coming very, very inexpensively. And as we have now passed that point, we are having to put quite a bit more CapEx into this business in order to grow it, great return by the way, but that is driving our depreciation expense up quite considerably.

Stephen Tusa - J.P. Morgan

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Okay. And just the follow-up on that, I mean, you talk about wanting to be a premier multi-industry company, when I look out at the guidance that a lot of these premier companies have given over the last month, even in the face of this environment you are looking at, certainly north of 10% EPS growth… 10% to 15%, 15% is kind of the bar and who knows if they get there. But, for now, they are saying that that is the right bar, some are putting up 20% EPS growth. You got 7% at the mid-point of the range, now I understand there is investment and all this other stuff, but all these other companies are also investing heavily in there business and doing acquisitions and things like that. Do you think that 7% mid-point of the range is enough to get you to premier status, because you guys have used that word quite a bit over the course of this conference call?

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

You have an interesting definition of premier. How many of them did 32% last year?

Stephen Tusa - J.P. Morgan

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

You guys are talking about a journey here, so it’s…

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

That’s exactly right, we are talking about a journey and we would have 14% growth, but for LCC and the two acquisitions and that’s the way life works. This is not a perfect linear progression, but we will work hard to get to a number that’s very strong, if we can make it in ’08, but we are making investments that we believe are increasing shareholder value, which is really an intrinsic value, which is our ultimate yardstick of what premier looks like.

Stephen Tusa - J.P. Morgan

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Right, I just think the revenue growth you guys have put up over the last couple of year, you have never had or you very seldomly had an EPS growth rate that’s below your revenue growth rates. So, this year just seems a little bit unusual on that --?

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

We wouldn’t have but for those three items.

Stephen Tusa - J.P. Morgan

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Right. Okay. Thanks a lot.

Douglas R. Wilburne - Vice President of Investor Relations

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Let me make two more closing comments real quick. The year is not over yet, but we try give you the best guidance we can, but we don't quit here, 11 more months to run. I want to go back on the Citation 10 because I probably shortcut that answer just a little bit on flight control systems, remember that was the first step well… that is the only aircraft to save the Concorde, which is no longer flying, that flies at Mach 0.92 or higher, and so if you said technically what was going on there, it was more related to the fairly complicated flight control system than actually fly by wire although they are kind of intertwined there. So, I just want to clear that up.

Lewis B. Campbell - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Let me do one other thing too because I finally found my missing piece of paper and I know this is of interest to all of you. The LCC current development cost estimates right now for '08, $53 million, $0.14 of share, for ’09, $97 million, $0.26 a share, for 2010, $120 million, $0.32 a share, and that ought to be at about the peak rate and then it should flatten out, start to drift downward thereafter.

Douglas R. Wilburne - Vice President of Investor Relations

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

All right, operator, if we don't have any other calls in queue, this will conclude our call and we thank everybody for joining us today. Take care.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this conference call will be available for replay starting at 12.30 p.m. Eastern Time today. The replay of the conference runs until the date of April 23, at midnight Eastern. You may access the AT&T teleconference replay system by dialing area code 320-365-3844. The access code is 841349. That number again is area code 320-365-3844. The access code is 841349. That concludes our conference call for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T's Executive Teleconference Service. You may now disconnect.