Tonya Robinson
Analyst · David Tarantino from Baird. Your line is open
Thanks Kent, and good evening, everyone. For the third quarter of 2018, revenue grew 10% driven by 5.6% store wheat growth and a 4.8% increase in average unit volume. Restaurant margin dollars grew 0.3% to $95.8 million and net income decreased 6.1% to $29.1 million or $0.40 per diluted share as the strong top line growth was more than offset by the expected continuation of commodity and labor inflation, as well as the impact of several adjustments in both this quarter and the prior-year period. I will provide more detail on these items below. For the quarter, comparable restaurant sales increased 5.5% comprised of 4% traffic growth and a 1.5% increase in average check. By month, comparable sales increased 4.7%, 5.3% and 6.2% for our July, August and September periods respectively. As Kent mentioned, comparable sales increased 4% for our October period, including approximately 70 basis points of negative impact primarily from overlapping the post-hurricane sales increase from last year. At the beginning of 2018, we implemented the new revenue recognition accounting guidance which resulted in a reclassification of certain expenses and credits. The reclassifications had no impact on net income and the comparative financial information has not been restated. As a result of the reclassifications, we reduced sales by $1.2 million for gift card fees, net of gift card breakage income, and increased other revenue $0.6 million for franchise related items. Additionally, cost of sales decreased $1.3 million or 15 basis points, other operating costs decreased $1.5 million or 22 basis points and G&A increased $2.2 million or 38 basis points. No direct reclassifications were made in labor, however, the change in sales resulted in an increase of 7 basis points to labor as a percentage of restaurant sales. We currently expect the Q4 2018 impact of the reclassifications related to the implementation to be similar as a percentage of total sales or as a percentage of total revenue to those just quantified. For the quarter, restaurant margin decreased 157 basis points to 16.2% as a percentage of total sales compared to the prior-year period. Cost of sales as a percentage of total sales decreased 35 basis points compared to the prior year period. The impact of approximately 0.75% commodity inflation was more than offset by the benefit of average check and the impact of certain reclassifications. We continue to expect approximately 1% commodity inflation in 2018, which implies approximately 1.5% inflation in the fourth quarter. Labor as a percentage of total sales increased 194 basis points to 33.5%, and labor dollars per store week were up 10.5% compared to the prior-year period. The main drivers were wage and other inflation of approximately 5.3% including the impact of increasing managing partner base pay and growth in hours of approximately 2.8%. The additional 2.4% of labor growth was driven by reserve adjustments associated with our group insurance claims development history and our workers’ compensation claims experience. In total, insurance costs were negatively impacted by $1.8 million of additional expense this quarter along with the overlap of $2.5 million of credits from the prior-year quarter. Overall, total wage inflation and growth in hours this quarter were in line with what we experienced in the first half of the year. We continue to expect labor dollars per store week growth in Q4 2018 to be in the mid-single digit range, excluding the impact of higher guest counts. Lastly, other operating costs as a percentage of total sales were essentially flat compared to the prior-year period. The benefit of an approximately $0.5 million credit related to our quarterly actual reserve analysis for general liability insurance and the impact of certain reclassifications mentioned earlier more than offset higher costs associated with to-go supplies, repairs and maintenance expense and gift card production. Moving below restaurant margin, G&A costs increased $8.9 million to 5.9% as a percentage of revenue, which was a 106 basis point increase. Along with the $2.2 million impact of reclassifications mentioned earlier, the increase included $1.4 million of additional incentive and equity compensation costs related to 2018 bonus targets, $0.9 million of additional legal settlement expense and $0.3 million related to higher group health insurance reserve adjustments. These items, along with the reclassification impact, accounted for 83 basis points of the increase this quarter. In addition, higher share based compensation costs due to increased share price as well as the timing of certain training and development meetings during the quarter more than offset the benefit of average unit volume growth. Depreciation expense increased $2.3 million year-over-year to $25.8 million or 4.3% as a percentage of revenue which was a 1 basis point decline. Preopening costs decreased by $0.2 million year-over-year driven by the timing of openings. As Kent mentioned, we plan to open as many as 11 company restaurants in the fourth quarter, so we currently expect fourth quarter preopening costs to be higher compared to last year when we had seven openings. Finally, our tax rate for the quarter came in at 15.1% compared to the 28.8% rate in the prior-year period. Our full-year income tax rate guidance of 14% to 15% remains unchanged. Our balance sheet remains strong as we ended the quarter with $151 million in cash. During the quarter, we generated $60 million in cash flow from operations, incurred capital expenditures of $44 million and paid dividends of $18 million. We now project 2018 capital expenditures of approximately $160 million to $165 million. As we near the end of 2018, I want to point out that we expect Christmas Eve and Christmas Day to have a positive comparable sales impact for approximately 1% on the month of December with the holiday shifting from Sunday/Monday to Monday/Tuesday. And looking ahead to 2019, our overall expectations include positive comparable sales growth in 25 to 30 new store openings including four Bubba’s 33 restaurants. We currently expect approximately 1% to 2% commodity inflation with fixed prices on approximately 40% of our commodity basket at this time. Our mid-single digit labor inflation expectation includes an estimate of increases due to mandated state wage rates, ongoing market pressure and growth in labor hours due to the hiring initiatives Kent mentioned. Our expectations also include an income tax rate of 14% to 15% and capital expenditures of approximately $165 million to $175 million. Finally, as a reminder, 2019 will be a 53-week year for us. As such, the fourth quarter of 2019 will have 14 weeks versus our normal 13 weeks. We estimate that the additional week could benefit full-year earnings per share growth by approximately 3.5%. Now, I’ll turn the call over to Scott for final comments.