Tonya Robinson - Texas Roadhouse, Inc.
Analyst · Morgan Stanley
Thanks, Kent, and good evening everyone. For the third quarter of 2017, net income increased 20.8% over the prior-year period to $31 million or $0.43 per diluted share on revenue growth of 12.2%. This was driven by an 8.1% increase in store weeks and a 3.9% increase in average unit volume. Strong top line growth and commodity deflation drove restaurant margin dollars up 10.4% year-over-year to $95.6 million. For the quarter, comparable restaurant sales increased 4.5%, comprised of 3.5% traffic growth and a 1% increase in average check. By month, comparable sales were up 4.6%, 4.3% and 4.7% for our July, August and September periods, respectively. Comps for September were negatively impacted by approximately 30 basis points from hurricanes Harvey and Irma whereas Kent mentioned approximately 10 basis points for the quarter. The weather impact includes the negative impact of store closures during the week of each hurricane, offset by the estimated positive impact of a post-storm sales bump as restaurants reopened. The sales bump continued in the first four weeks of the fourth quarter where we estimate that comparable sales growth of approximately 5.3% includes approximately 70 basis points of positive impact from the storms. Restaurant margin for the quarter decreased 31 basis points to 17.8% as a percentage of restaurant sales compared to the prior-year period. Cost of sales as a percentage of sales improved year-over-year by 99 basis points, benefiting from commodity deflation of approximately 2% driven by beef. Overall, total labor per store week grew 7.8% for the quarter compared to the prior-year period, while labor cost as a percentage of sales were up 115 basis points. Continued wage rate inflation of approximately 5.4%, as well as growth in labor hours because of front-of-house hiring initiatives rolled out during the quarter, drove most of the increase. However, the increase was partially offset by decreases of approximately $1.5 million in workers' comp expense and approximately $1 million in group health insurance expense related to our quarterly actuarial reserve analysis. Lastly, other operating costs as a percentage of sales were up 20 basis points, primarily due to lapping a credit of approximately $1.5 million recorded in Q3 of 2016 related to our quarterly actuarial reserve analysis for general liability insurance. For full year 2017 we are updating our guidance on commodity deflation to approximately 2% and updating our guidance on labor inflation to approximately 7% to 8%. Moving below restaurant margin, G&A as a percentage of revenue was 4.8% or 60 basis points better compared to the prior-year period. The improvement was primarily driven by overlapping a $1.2 million charge recorded in the third quarter of last year related to a legal settlement as well as lower expense this year associated with incentive and share-based compensation. Depreciation expense increased $2.6 million year-over-year to $23.5 million or 4.4% of revenue. Also pre-opening expense decreased $0.5 million on a year-over-year basis, driven by the timing of restaurant opening. Finally, our tax rate for the quarter came in at 28.8%, which was lower than the 29.8% rate last year. The decrease was primarily due to the impact in new accounting guidance related to share-based compensation, which went into effect at the beginning of 2017. As part of the new guidance, we now recognize excess tax benefits and tax deficiencies from share-based comp through the income statement rather than the balance sheet in the period in which the restricted shares vest. Our balance sheet remained strong as we ended the quarter with $114 million in cash and $52 million in debt. During the quarter, we generated $60 million in cash flow from operations, incurred capital expenditures of $43 million and paid dividends of $15 million, resulting in a $2 million increase in cash. As we close out 2017, I have a few upcoming calendar shift items to point out. In Q4, our Veteran's Day lunch giveaway will occur on Saturday, November 11 and could have a negative impact on comparable sales. In addition, in Q4, we expect Christmas Eve and Christmas Day to have a positive comparable sales impact of approximately 1% on the month of December, with the holidays shifting from Saturday and Sunday to Sunday and Monday. A similar positive impact is expected in early fiscal 2018 with the shift of New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. Looking ahead to 2018, our overall expectations include positive comparable sales growth and approximately 30 new store openings. This includes up to 7 Bubba's 33 restaurants, a few of which were pushed from 2017. In addition, with fixed prices on approximately 30% of our commodity basket, we currently expect an overall flat food cost environment, with beef deflation offset by inflation on other items in the basket. Mid single-digit labor inflation is expected to continue into 2018, primarily driven by wage rate inflation along with the impact of the hiring initiatives I mentioned earlier. Finally, our expectations also include an income tax rate of 28% to 29% and capital expenditures of approximately $175 million. Now I'll turn the call over to Scott for final comments.