Chuck Eldred
Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead
Thank you, Pat, and good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us today. Let's start with a discussion of tax reform on Slide 7 before getting into the quarterly results, guidance and updates to our growth targets. Since tax reform came out, we've been working through the impacts to our books. As a result deferred tax assets and liabilities on the balance sheet were revalued with a new 21% income tax rate from the previous 35% rate. Changes to the balances that were associated with items collected through regulated rates were reclassified to regulatory liabilities and were returned to customers over time. However, when the change was associated with an item that is not recovered through retail rates, the change was recorded to the income statement. This resulted in a total non-cash non-recurring charge of $57.5 million in 2017. Looking forward, the impact of the lower tax rate is consistent with our message during the past year. The regulated utilities will pass the benefit through to customers beginning in 2018 and corporate and other will have a $0.02 hit to EPS because of the lower tax benefit on the losses in that segment. We continue to believe that we do not have any material exposure under the interest expense allocation methodology for the holding company that is used across the industry and supported by EI. Although no firm guidance has been released by the IRS at this point related to how to apply the 30% EBITDA limitation. With the elimination of bonus depreciation for utility plant placed into service beginning October 2017, booking tax depreciation will start to line-up more closely. As a result, the ADIT liability balances will be reduced and this will cause an increase in rate base compared to what it would have been otherwise. As expected tax reform will reduce cash flows and credit metrics. The impacts are manageable and we have not increased the planned issuance of equity under the Hathway market equity issuance program that we discussed previously. From a rating agency perspective, our financial metrics have been at the high-end of the ranges for our ratings, which helps to counterbalance these effects. As a result, we have been in contact with the rating agencies about tax reform and they are aware of the impacts we expect. Now let's move to Slide 8, to cover the results for both the quarter and the year. As Pat indicated ongoing earnings per share were $0.24 for the fourth quarter of 2017 compared to $0.34 in the fourth quarter of 2016. PNM was down $0.07 primarily due to an expected $0.05 increase in outage cost including planned outages at Four Corners [indiscernible] SERs and at the [acting] [ph] generation station. Similar to the first three quarters, earnings were reduced by higher depreciation and property taxes and reduced low. O&M overall was flat as any increases were offset by our continued efforts to control costs. We also have the additional contributions of PNM Resources Foundation to fund economic development programs that we discussed in our third quarter call. The decrease in earnings was partially offset by higher transmission revenues as we continue to see opportunities arise in this area of our business with renewable developers looking to send their power to California. FEDC and market prices for Palo Verde, Unit 3 were higher than 2016. As a reminder fourth quarter was the final quarter of Palo Verde 3 as a merchant resource that power now has been dedicated to serve the retail jurisdiction. TNMP was down $0.01 as increases from TCOS rate relief, load and colder temperatures were offset by expected increases to O&M and higher depreciation and property tax expenses on capital investment. Corporate and other was down $0.02 as we continue to see increased interest expense from higher debt balances and lower net interest income as a Westmorland loan agreement is paid down. As a reminder, we fixed the interest rate on $150 million of debt last year through interest rate swaps and we will continue to look for opportunities to fix more of our variable rate debt at the holding company. For the full year, we had a strong earnings of $1.94, the changes for the year-over-year results were primarily at PNM. Rate relief from 2016 rate review increased earnings by $0.27. We also had realized gains in PNM's nuclear decommissioning trust. This was due to stronger than expected market performance as we executed our plans to rebalance the portfolio. Our guidance for 2018 and 2019 incorporates a much more conservative asset allocation with returns coming primarily from interest income. We ended 2017 with a $0.02 increase to earnings for these items compared to 2016 as opposed to the $0.5 decrease that was expected. Turn to Slide 9 for the loan details. Results for the full year were in line with our forecast and we have not changed our expectations for 2018 and 2019. Economic growth in Texas continues to outpace the rest of the country. We also see strong demand in our service territories and particularly with interconnection request in our West Texas region. We continue to see our end user expanding their operations there. Economic conditions in Albuquerque continue to remain relatively stable although employment growth in the Albuquerque metro area tracking slightly lower than the national average. The addition of Facebook will provide stability to our load results as the remainder of the local economy slowly recovers. As I've discussed in prior quarters, the customer growth that we see at PNM is being offset primarily by our successful energy efficiency programs as well as the adoption of private solar systems. Now let's turn to Slide 10 for earnings guidance. We revised our 2018 and 2019 guidance last week primarily to incorporate the final order in PNM's rate review which reflects the impacts of tax reform. 2018 guidance revised to the range of a $1.82 to $1.92 as a reduction to the rate review settlement amount and the impact of tax reform lowered the total rate increase resulting in a total customer bill impact of a little more than 1%. As a result of the final order including the immediate pass through of tax reform, the [indiscernible] no longer has as much of a reduction to earnings in 2018. We have also planned some costs in 2018 for O&M that supports reliability such as doing preventive tree trimming and additional maintenance on our substations. We have narrowed 2019 by bringing up the bottom-end of the range to $2.04 from $2. The resolution of tax reform and the PNM rate review gives us greater confidence in our 2019 estimates. Guidance also reflects the realignment of our cost to match the $4.4 million revenue reduction in the final order at PNM. Updates to the detailed guidance drivers that we provided in December are also in the appendix. They reflect these changes in the calculation of new tax rates on all the drivers. Please reach out to Jimmie and Lisa, if you have any questions on those items after today's call. Before we view the next two slides, I want to point out that we are rolling forward with our rate base and earnings growth targets to begin measuring from a 2018 base period. Let's turn to Slide 11 for a look at capital and the rate base growth. Our capital forecast is consistent with the plan provided in December although we have separated out amounts related to transmission expansion coming from new developers within the chart to give greater clarity around the amounts that are being invested in this demand driven growth area. Additionally rate base growth has been updated to reflect the impacts of tax reform particularly reduction in ADIT liability due the elimination of bonus depreciation that I discussed earlier. Rate base growth at PNM through 2021 has increased to a range of 4.5% to 6% from a 2018 base. Depending on the outcome of items under appeal with New Mexico's Supreme Court and approval of smart meters in New Mexico, TNMP's rate base growth remains high through 2021 at 10.7%, when we roll forward to the 2018 base period bringing consolidated rate base growth to a range of 6% to 7% for 2018 through 2021. The rate base growth percentages do not include 2022. We have many moving pieces we look out that far. Driven by replacement power, transmission opportunities, grid modernization efforts at PNM and further system investments at TNMP. As we gain more clarity around these various projects we'll begin to include the revised numbers in our rate based growth targets. Now let's turn to Slide 12 for a look at how this impacts earnings potential. We previously communicated a growth target of 6% through 2021 from a base period of 2016. As we roll forward, the base period to our revised 2018 guidance midpoint, the potential earnings power the business continues to support 6% earnings growth through 2021. PNM retail growth in 2021 is largely driven by the increase in rate base calculated by tax reform that I discussed earlier. The combined impact this for PNM retail and FERC is about $150 million and for TNMP it's about $30 million. I want to point out that the potential earnings power reflects the Four Corners investments at a debt only return has allowed in the final order of our rate case. We believe that our transition away from coal will continue to be challenged by the intervening parties to our rate proceedings. We are confident that our investments are prudent and justified and therefore should be recoverable. Moving to FERC transmission, this provides good growth over the target period. As I discussed earlier, the need to expand our system to support the development of third-party renewable developers who are transmitting power to California as well as New Mexico while maintaining system reliability. TNMP also continues to be a strong growth opportunity as we invest to support customer expansions and system maintenance. We expect some dilution in 2020 and 2021 related to the previously announced equity issuance under at the market program. We've updated our assumptions here to reflect a more current stock price. As I mentioned before tax reform has an impact to our cash flows. But our credit metrics remain strong and we did not project any additional equity needs through the ATM program. As you can see from earnings power, our original plan to deliver a solid performance into 2019 is achievable. We are expecting to earn our allowed return at PNM and subsequently at TNMP, once our rate case has been finalized. We also expect to achieve our 6% earnings growth through 2021. Now I'll turn the call back over to Pat.