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TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)

Q2 2012 Earnings Call· Fri, Aug 3, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the PNM Resources Second Quarter Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host, Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations manager.

Jimmie Blotter

Analyst

Thank you, Kate, and thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning for the PNM Resources Second Quarter 2012 Earnings Conference Call. Please note that the presentation for this conference call and other supporting documents are available on our website at pnmresources.com. Joining me today are PNM Resources Chairman, President and CEO, Pat Collawn; and Chuck Eldred, our CFO; as well as several other members of our executive management team. Before I turn the call over to Pat, I need to remind you that some of the information provided this morning should be considered forward-looking statements pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We caution you that all of the forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and estimates, and that PNM Resources assumes no obligation to update this information. For a detailed discussion of factors affecting PNM Resources' results, please refer to our current and future annual reports on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, as well as reports on Form 8-K filed with the SEC. And with that, I will turn the call over to Pat.

Patricia K. Vincent-Collawn

Analyst · Jefferies

Thank you, Jimmie. Good morning, everyone, and let me add my thanks to Jimmie for all of you joining us this morning. I'm going to start the presentation on Slide 4 this morning and review our second quarter performance and provide some company updates. I hope you have all seen our news release issued earlier this morning reporting our second quarter ongoing earnings of $0.33 per diluted share compared with 2011 second quarter results of $0.20. On a GAAP basis, we finished the second quarter at $0.27 per diluted share compared with $0.04 last year. Both quarterly and year-to-date results represent continued improvement in the performance of both PNM and TNMP. For PNM, performance was strong as a result of the retail rate increase that went into effect last August, and our continuing efforts to align costs with revenues. In addition, this June was quite a bit warmer than a June a year ago. TNMP had strong retail load growth of 7%, was tempered by a cool-ish start to the summer in Texas when compared with 2011. In terms of PNM's regulatory framework, we continue to make progress on several fronts, and I will discuss those in more detail in a few minutes. Turn to Slide 5 for an overview discussion on load growth, economic conditions and unemployment. We continue to see modest retail load growth at PNM. 1/10 of a percent for the quarter and 4/10 of a percent year-to-date on a weather normalized basis. Our rolling 12-month weather normalized average sales growth rate for PNM is 0.8%. We've experienced slow residential customer growth for a while. It's been less than 0.5% for more than 2 years. Housing starts have been slow, as a result of the weak economy, they're picking up over last year, but still below prerecession…

Charles N. Eldred

Analyst · Jefferies

Thank you, Pat, and good morning, everyone. We'll start on Slide 9. As Pat discussed, ongoing earnings were $0.33 for the quarter, which was $0.13 increase year-over-year. The majority of the improvement came from PNM with a $0.13 improvement that was largely driven by rate relief. TNMP continues to perform well and was up $0.02 for the quarter. Corporate and Other was also $0.02 higher. First Choice and Optim were combined, $0.04 decrease. The primary driver for PNM was a rate increase that was implemented in August 2011, which was $0.12 for the quarter. There were a number of other drivers that also contributed positively to PNM. Weather accounted for $0.03 improvement due to the high temperatures in June. Billing degree days for PNM were 32% higher than normal in the second quarter 2012. The PNM Resources share repurchases from last year improved the PNM results by $0.03. The expected O&M reductions to align cost to our rate structure were also $0.01 improvement. Outage costs attributed to $0.01, the planned outage for San Juan unit 2 was shorter than expected, and PV3 had one of the shortest planned outages in the history of Palo Verde. As expected, lower Palo Verde 3 prices were a negative driver, causing a $0.01 decrease compared to 2011. Interest expense increased due to the debt issuance of PNM in October 2011 or $0.01 change. The nuclear decommissioning trust realized year gains in 2012, resulting in a $0.04 impact. TNMP was up $0.02, as Pat mentioned, TNMP is experiencing good load growth, contributing $0.02 from last year. The share repurchase improved TNMP's results by $0.01, and mild weather through June of this year had a negative impact of $0.01. Now turning to Slide 11. We are affirming our 2012 guidance today of $1.20 to $1.32 for…

Patricia K. Vincent-Collawn

Analyst · Jefferies

Thanks, Chuck. We'll wrap up for today's call with the check list for 2012. The settlement in the FERC transmission case provides the latest example of how we are making progress towards our goal of earning our allowed returns. Our efforts to seek proper cost recovery, coupled with controlling expenses, continues to pay off. And we will continue on this path of matching cost with cost recovery. As we discussed earlier, we are in the earlier stages on the other regulatory matters and are making progress. We are also seeing strong reliability in power plant performance. And as Chuck has detailed, we are effectively controlling our costs. Operator, we can start the question-and-answer portion now.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Paul Fremont with Jefferies. Paul B. Fremont - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: A couple of questions. One, if the state and the EPA move towards a possible shutdown of one or more units of San Juan, would you consider offering Palo Verde 3 as -- or the rate basing of Palo Verde 3 as a possible force of replacement power?

Patricia K. Vincent-Collawn

Analyst · Jefferies

Paul, it's Pat. It's too soon to think about those kind of alternatives, Paul. One of the things that we said we would do is we would look, not only at the environmental performance of the plants, we'd also take a look at the economic piece of it. So that includes both the cost to rate pairs and the impact on jobs in New Mexico. So there may be pushes for that, if you wanted to build some new gas generation in New Mexico. So it's really kind of, I think, too soon and tell until we start getting these technical workgroups together offering alternatives. Paul B. Fremont - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: And then, what is the timeline by which you need to inform lessors for Palo Verde Units 1 and 2 about what your intention is, come the end of the lease term?

Charles N. Eldred

Analyst · Jefferies

Yes, Paul, this is Chuck. We do have to give notices for both unit 1 and unit 2, which is the total 178 megawatts that are under lease payments. The first notice will be January 2013 for unit 1. That's actually our second notice. The first notice was where we indicated that we have an interest to continue to have ownership in the asset. The second notice will really be an indication that our interest in either extending the lease or making a decision to purchase the less -- the leases that are outstanding. The second period for unit 2 will be January 2014, and which again will be the second notice. The indicated decision to either extend the lease or purchase the option. So in either case, we haven't made a firm decision as to what our plans are. We still have a few more months to work through this. Ultimately, our goal and desire is to have ownership of those leases of the Palo Verde within rate base. And to our view, it's really more of a timing of how we can work through a decision to ultimately get regulatory treatment and recovery of them, the investment and ownership of Palo Verde, both 1 and 2. Paul B. Fremont - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: And can you tell us, what is the current revenue requirement that's built into rates to recover the lease expense?

Charles N. Eldred

Analyst · Jefferies

Currently, the payments for a year around $57 million. Paul B. Fremont - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: Okay. So that's roughly the equivalent of what you're collecting from customers right now?

Charles N. Eldred

Analyst · Jefferies

Dollar for dollar, yes. It's treated as an O&M expense. Paul B. Fremont - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: And I guess, my last question would be, when we think about your equity ratio and targets, can you give us a sense of what you're targeting, both at the utility and at the holding company?

Charles N. Eldred

Analyst · Jefferies

Yes, we -- target for PNM is 50-50 cap structure. At the holding company, we maintain a range of between 50, 55, roughly around 52 would be -- probably 52, 53 is really a pretty good medium range for that. Paul B. Fremont - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: And that's 52, 53 debt?

Charles N. Eldred

Analyst · Jefferies

That's right.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Justin McCann with S&P Capital IQ. Justin C. McCann - S&P Equity Research: Despite the strength of this quarter, you were staying within the midrange of your guidance. Despite the impact of Palo Verde, could you still approach the high-end of your guidance?

Charles N. Eldred

Analyst · Justin McCann with S&P Capital IQ

Yes, at this point, we're really comfortable being at the solid point of the mid-point of the range. We mentioned a slight decrease in loads. So there's some impact there. We're using cost efforts to really offset that. And the impact of Palo Verde, we're really comfortable where we are right now. But I think it's probably -- we're very comfortable, and we're confident in the mid-point of the range. To that degree, anything beyond this point would be certainly an upside to that mid-point.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ali Agha with SunTrust.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust

A couple of quick questions. First on Palo Verde 3, Chuck, can you remind us how much of that output is hedged in 2013? And perhaps in '14 right now?

Charles N. Eldred

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust

We haven't really talked about that, Ali. We've talked about that we continue to use a rolling 12 months to keep a hedged position. We are 90% hedged through this year. Certainly, we are hedging positions out in 2013, but we haven't disclosed what our final position is at this point. And we're trying to keep the flexibility, as we talked about before of any upside potential in the market to capture that, given the fact that it continues to be a negative impact to earnings, trying to capture some, hopefully, at some point, some increases in power prices that would turn that around.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust

Okay. But just that -- actually less than half is a fair way to think about it?

Charles N. Eldred

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust

We really haven't talked about it, Ali. So I think at this point, it's fair just to say that we're 90% hedged for this year. We -- certainly are beginning to hedge some in 2013, and that's about as far as I think I can go at this point.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust

Okay. Secondly, Pat, going back to the BART issue, et cetera, just remind us, with all these petal parts going, the 90 day stay at the court, et cetera. Working backwards, if that deadline does not change, what's kind of a drop-dead date for you guys to start that investment and still meet the deadline?

Patricia K. Vincent-Collawn

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust

Well, the 90-day stay technically would be up in mid-October of this year. And what we're doing now is working with the different vendors that have put in bids on the SCR project to determine if there are ways that we can move spending back, so we don't have to start to any spending, significant spending, until we get through this process and know if there's an alternative. So we don't have a definite plan yet. But as we disclosed in the Q, we're looking to not have to spend the amount of money we thought we would, and working with vendors to coming up with alternative plans. But we'll know, when this public process is over by mid-October. I think, whether or not there could be a viable alternative or if we're going to have to go ahead with the SCRs.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust

I see. And also, is the plan at PNM to file the rate case? What was it, at fourth quarter? What's the latest on the timeline there?

Patricia K. Vincent-Collawn

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust

Yes, our current plan was that we would file a rate case in December of this year.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust

Okay. And last question. Remind us again, when we look at your base CapEx numbers that you have in your forecast, that -- what does that translate into from an annualized rate-base growth? And what's sort of baked into the rate-base growth to go back to that 10% to 12% total return you talked to us about?

Patricia K. Vincent-Collawn

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust

Yes, the annualized rate base growth that was built into the capital budget was about 2%.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust

Okay. But to get to...

Patricia K. Vincent-Collawn

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust

Yes, yes.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust

Okay, but to get to the 10% to 12% total return, the -- if I recall, the rate base growth needs to be higher. Correct?

Charles N. Eldred

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust

Yes, and Ali, where we -- the other piece that we talked about, anywhere from 4% to 6% that would be considered with the other potential capital we have relative to whether we put SCRs or some alternative to how we pursue solving or providing some solution to San Juan.

Patricia K. Vincent-Collawn

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust

Because that 2% was base capital, Ali, yes.

Charles N. Eldred

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust

And so we take the other capital potential. We have the renewables. We continue to feel comfortable that the 10% to 13%, over the next 5 years, with 2012 being a base year. We're confident we can provide the results to meet those expectations. And of course, as you know, that also includes dividend yield, which we address every February with the Board.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust

Right. But just to be clear, Chuck, so 4% to 6% is kind of implied rate-base growth that kind of supports that target?

Charles N. Eldred

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust

That's probably a reasonable expectation with -- knowing that we're going to have to spend that potential capital, we're just not sure exactly what we'll be spending it on, other than SCRs first, at this point.

Patricia K. Vincent-Collawn

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust

Yes.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann. Brian J. Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc., Research Division: Most of my questions have been asked and answered. Just curious, could you just remind us of your dividend policy and the timing of when the Board refused the dividend?

Patricia K. Vincent-Collawn

Analyst · Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann

Yes, our long-term target on our dividend is 50% to 60% of consolidated ongoing earnings. And the Board continues to evaluate it every year in February. Brian J. Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc., Research Division: Okay, every February. Okay. And then, also remind us that the $143 million of 9.25% parent debt I believe expires in '15, is there an opportunity to take that out or refinance that earlier? Or you'll just let that roll off at -- when it expires in '15?

Charles N. Eldred

Analyst · Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann

Yes, the plan -- yes, the plan, Brian, right now is to let it expire, we'll pay off at the -- when that date in May of 2015. Now there because it's not callable, there's no way to take it out, unless interest rates were to change dramatically, which I don't think any of us expect to happen.

Patricia K. Vincent-Collawn

Analyst · Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann

Yes, when we recapitalized last fall, we bought some of it back, but we paid a hefty premium for it. So we don't really want to do that again. Brian J. Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc., Research Division: Okay. And lastly, these alternatives that you reference in terms of San Juan, BART, EPA situation. I'm just trying to get a feel, I think from your -- or at least from the state and the governor's perspective, the best alternative would be the lowest cost. And I'm just wondering in this $700 million of potential CapEx, given any sort of settlement with the EPA, it looks like that $700 million could be considerably less. Just trying to figure out if -- how you backfill that to maintain the $700 million, which supports 10% to 13% total return target.

Patricia K. Vincent-Collawn

Analyst · Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann

A couple of things on that. On that $700 million, that's the total plants, and our share of that is about 46.3%. So it's, I'll do easy math, it's about $350 million for us. If we ended up doing the SNCRs, that's about $77 million. Half of that is ours. So there's, there's just a little over $300 million delta. First, I don't think that we're going to be able to get to get to 4 SNCRs on that unit. I think that was the state plan and the EPA has rejected that. But if we come up with a lower cost plan, we can still fill in with other renewables. We would like to own more renewables as opposed to doing a PPA. We can build a gas peaker. We can build some generation. So we have lots of opportunities to fill in that gap for a cheaper alternative.

Charles N. Eldred

Analyst · Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann

Yes, I mean, Brian to add to Pat's comment, we update the capital budget in December of each year. So what we project and look at the infrastructure of the business. And given whatever solution we determine, there may be some capital that we can allocate, both PNM and TNMP that would help support that as well.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Maury May with Wellington Shields. Maurice E. May - Wellington Shields & Co., LLC, Research Division: The story is really intact. I got a couple of questions this morning. First of all, going back to one of the first questions. If you are sticking to the mid-point of guidance for 2012, it indicates down quarters in the third and fourth quarter. And how is that possible?

Charles N. Eldred

Analyst · Maury May with Wellington Shields

I'm not sure. When you say down quarters for third and fourth quarter? Maurice E. May - Wellington Shields & Co., LLC, Research Division: Well, just mathematics. If you take the 17 and the 33 and look at the 61 and 22 last year, we're looking at a -- third and fourth quarters that are down from last year.

Charles N. Eldred

Analyst · Maury May with Wellington Shields

I might want to take that off-line to kind of to reconcile the numbers with you. But we wouldn't necessarily see it that way, Maury, but I think it's probably better to just discuss numbers off-line to see if we -- and just call Jimmie and we'll make sure. But we're very confident with the third and fourth quarter. And frankly, with what happens, typically, you'll have a stronger third quarter.

Patricia K. Vincent-Collawn

Analyst · Maury May with Wellington Shields

And remember, Maury, there's a lot of weather last year in the third and fourth quarters, in both New Mexico and Texas. Maurice E. May - Wellington Shields & Co., LLC, Research Division: Okay, okay. Yes, next question has to do with the regulators in Santa Fe. There are couple of open seats this year in districts 1 and 3. And I just wondered if you could give us some color on the elections as they're unfolding.

Patricia K. Vincent-Collawn

Analyst · Maury May with Wellington Shields

Yes, sure. In the district, that's a -- Commissioner Howe's current seat, Valerie Espinoza won the Democratic primary up there, she is unopposed. So she will be the next commissioner there. Maurice E. May - Wellington Shields & Co., LLC, Research Division: I'm sorry, what was that name again?

Patricia K. Vincent-Collawn

Analyst · Maury May with Wellington Shields

Valerie Espinoza. She will be the next Commissioner there. She has a good relationship with some of the other commissioners that are staying on the commission. She's been very interested in learning the business. And even though, she's not -- she's unopposed, she's still working very hard to get that seat. In -- here in the Albuquerque district, that Commissioner Marks currently holds, there is an opposed race here. The Bernalillo County Clerk, excuse me, Assessor, Karen Montoya, is the Democratic candidate. She run -- won a pretty tough race, a 3-way race. And she is up against a Republican who is a lawyer, who has been pretty low-profile. We haven't seen much going on in that race yet, the airwaves here, as you can imagine have been taken over by the presidential candidates. I think Karen may be the favorite in this district, because she's got such good name recognition from her years as an assessor, even though the district here is pretty evenly split, 50-50 in Republican and Democratic. But Karen has been a very good County Assessor. She has made tough decisions. And she's, again also very interested in the business and learning. So I think, whichever one of those 2 wins, we would be pleased with the outcome, and we're pleased with Valerie coming in. And she is the Santa Fe County Clerk, so she also has an -- and Valerie has elected official experience. Maurice E. May - Wellington Shields & Co., LLC, Research Division: Okay, and last question, the rate case that you're going to file in 2012, can you give us some color on that? What investments you need to get in? What ONM cost you need to get recovery of?

Patricia K. Vincent-Collawn

Analyst · Maury May with Wellington Shields

No, I've learned long ago, Maury, to never talk about rate cases before you actually let the regulators know what's going to be in them, so.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Terry Shu, Pioneer Investments.

Terry Shu

Analyst · Terry Shu, Pioneer Investments

Just in looking at your guidance and also your page on your allowed returns and capital structure. Just looking at the run rate earnings. Your guidance, am I right that the implied or the ROE that you're going to earn in 2012 is somewhere in the low to mid 9s? So a bit of regulatory lag, but you're -- you've closed the gap a lot. Is the calculation roughly right?

Charles N. Eldred

Analyst · Terry Shu, Pioneer Investments

Well, definitely have closed the lag. And with PNM, we're really going to earn our allowed return. And same with TNMP. So both those businesses are earning...

Terry Shu

Analyst · Terry Shu, Pioneer Investments

Close to 10?

Charles N. Eldred

Analyst · Terry Shu, Pioneer Investments

At least a 10% level.

Terry Shu

Analyst · Terry Shu, Pioneer Investments

Okay. Because I was just using the information that's on your -- the regulatory page. So more or -- so for 2012, you're already at that level. And I was looking at some of your older presentations and your capital spending forecast sheet. Have you given in the past, a rate base growth forecast? I don't recall seeing it, or maybe I missed it.

Charles N. Eldred

Analyst · Terry Shu, Pioneer Investments

We did. Actually, if you go back and if you'll call Jimmie Blotter, she will share the presentation we did on guidance back in December, that showed some information on the rate base growth.

Terry Shu

Analyst · Terry Shu, Pioneer Investments

So okay. What would that be for the next, let's say, 3 to 4 years?

Patricia K. Vincent-Collawn

Analyst · Terry Shu, Pioneer Investments

Well, we broke that down in 2 different components. One was just the core capital structure, which is around that 2% we talked about earlier. And also the 4% to 6% additional capital that would be supported at PNM for investing in either SCRs or other alternatives that might be considered. And then we update the capital in December of each year. So we'll, at that point, determine if there's any...

Terry Shu

Analyst · Terry Shu, Pioneer Investments

So if you put that all together, is it in the mid-single-digit area?

Charles N. Eldred

Analyst · Terry Shu, Pioneer Investments

Yes, that's probably a reasonable expectation.

Terry Shu

Analyst · Terry Shu, Pioneer Investments

Right. So really going forward, you're at your allowed return and you have mid-single-digit revenue or mid-single-digit rate base growth. So presumably, earnings or utility earnings will track that and you have some holding company interest expenses. Is that right, more or less?

Patricia K. Vincent-Collawn

Analyst · Terry Shu, Pioneer Investments

Just want to clarify. We're earning the allowed return at PNM retail. And so there's still -- you have the transmission, the past [ph] transmission, the first generation and the Palo Verde, which is unfortunately is not earning it.

Terry Shu

Analyst · Terry Shu, Pioneer Investments

Right, right. When I talked about the ROE, I was adding everything up. So the cumulative, excluding holding company interest costs. Does that sound about right?

Charles N. Eldred

Analyst · Terry Shu, Pioneer Investments

Well, PNM retail rate base is 10% and then you have the FERC for PNM, the generation which we have [indiscernible].

Terry Shu

Analyst · Terry Shu, Pioneer Investments

Right, right, which is a drag. Right. Okay. And have you commented on dividend policy, either in recent meetings? I don't recall.

Patricia K. Vincent-Collawn

Analyst · Terry Shu, Pioneer Investments

Our dividend policy is that we strive for a 50% to 60% about. And the Board looks at that strategically in a long term, they revisit that every year in February. We had a dividend increase this last February. And what the Board is looking for when they make that decision, where our capital spending is going to be, when we have some clarity around San Juan and what those options are. So we'll update again in February.

Terry Shu

Analyst · Terry Shu, Pioneer Investments

Right, right now you're at the low end or even a little below that. So...

Patricia K. Vincent-Collawn

Analyst · Terry Shu, Pioneer Investments

Correct.

Terry Shu

Analyst · Terry Shu, Pioneer Investments

So the -- as each year or each meeting goes by, each time period, you'll give more color on what it -- the trajectory, is that right?

Charles N. Eldred

Analyst · Terry Shu, Pioneer Investments

That's correct. But we did message clearly that given that we are -- where we are in the payout ratio of below 50%, we would very likely be above average dividend growth going forward. And comfortable with the projections in that message, which is above the industry average.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And I'm not showing any further questions in the queue at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to Pat Collawn for closing remarks.

Patricia K. Vincent-Collawn

Analyst · Jefferies

Thank you, operator, thank all for joining us on this beautiful summer morning. I hope you are all enjoying the Olympics. And we look forward to talking to all of you on our third quarter call. Thank you, operator. We're done.