Chuck Eldred
Analyst · Ladenburg Thalmann
Thank you, Pat, and good morning to everyone. As Pat reported, ongoing earnings were $0.20 for the second quarter, down $0.01 from last year. However, a breakdown of our EPS by segment shows earnings at our regulated businesses were up a total of $0.06 from last year, demonstrating the continued progress we are making towards earning our allowed ROE. Total earnings at our competitive businesses, which include First Choice and Optim, were down $0.06. However, this trend has been fully expected given the low power price environment in Texas and the expiration of the Twin Oaks contract in December of last year, both of which have been factored into the guidance we issued earlier this year. Despite the expected drop in competitive earnings, we remain pleased with First Choice Power's performance, which remains very strong during the second quarter. And turning now to the individual business segments on Slide 10, and starting with PNM. In the second quarter, New Mexico Utility's ongoing earnings were up $0.02 from last year. On the positive side, outage costs were down $0.04 from last year, reflecting a reduction in the number of planned outage days. Realized gains from the Palo Verde Nuclear Decommissioning Trust also added $0.04. Another positive was weather-normalized load growth of 1.4%, which added another $0.01 to earnings. As you recall, we had expected PNM's annual load to increase 1% to 2%, and the 1.8% load growth experienced during the first half of this year is in line with our original expectations. Negative factors affecting PNM's performance this quarter included the expiration of the Palo Verde 3 toll on December 31 of last year. As you know, this unfavorable variance had been expected and is currently reflected in our guidance for the year. For the quarter, the toll's expiration reduced earnings by $0.07. Now turning to TNMP. At TNMP, earnings were up $0.04. The implementation of new transmission rates last year along with new rates that were put in place in February of this year, added $0.03. Warmer weather contributed an additional cent to earnings as cooling-degree days in TNMP's territory were up over 11% compared with last year. Now turning to Slide 11. As I mentioned earlier, earnings at our competitive businesses were lower than last year, but the decline had been fully expected. Starting with First Choice Power, we continue to be pleased with the company's performance. For the quarter, commercial sales were up 32% from last year reflecting First Choice's continued efforts to diversify its customer base. Because of the strong commercial growth experienced year-to-date, First Choice Power now expects its commercial sales volumes for 2011 to increase 20% to 25% over last year. The company's second quarter EBITDA of $14.5 million was down about $3 million from last year. However, the decline had been fully expected. First Choice total gross margin was down slightly year-over-year as the expected reduction in unit margins was almost entirely offset by an increase in customer usage and warmer weather. Compared with last year, First Choice's O&M in the second quarter was up $2.6 million, primarily reflecting higher advertisement and marketing expenses, the cost of new local offices and the implementation of First Choice's prepaid program. On the other hand, bad debt expense continues to decline. During the second quarter, bad debt was 4.7% of revenue, down 5.1% last year. And moving on to Optim Energy. Optim generated about $4 million of EBITDA in the second quarter, down about $14 million from last year. As you know, we had been expecting the decline of this magnitude given the expiration of the above-market sales contracts at Twin Oaks. In the second quarter, the roll-off of the contract reduced Optim's EBITDA by about $9 million. Another unfavorable driver was the timing of Twin Oak's annual maintenance outage, which reduced EBITDA by about $6 million. The outage was completed as scheduled and came in under budget. However, the number of the planned outages days were higher than last year as the outage was more comprehensive. On the positive side, slightly higher power prices in ERCOT during the second quarter helped to offset the negative impact of Twin Oaks' contract expiration and the plant's outage. Before turning to Slide 12, let me address the $0.30 regulatory disallowance that is reflected in our second-quarter GAAP losses. Comments made during the commission's opening meeting last Thursday indicate that the revenue requirement associated with prior-debt refinancings was one of the items excluded by the commission in arriving at the $72 million rate increase. As a result, in accordance with GAAP, $30 million of prior-debt refinancing costs were written off. While the hearing examiner agreed that the stipulated $85 million rate increase in total was just and reasonable, she did state that the company did not demonstrate a net benefit to customers from the refinancing cost and would exclude them in the litigated cost of service proceedings. The company disagrees with the hearing examiner's conclusion because the customers have and continue to benefit from PNM's refinancing of higher-cost debt. In fact, a portion of these costs were approved by the commission for recovery in prior litigated rate cases. PNM expects to include these costs in its next rate case filing. If they are approved, the regulatory asset would be restored to our balance sheet. In addition, another $15 million write-off was recorded for amounts that had been fully anticipated. As part of this stipulation, the company agreed to forgo recovery of $10 million of the under-collection in PNM's fuel clause balancing account. Additionally, the company had agreed not to seek recovery of external rate case-related cost of $3.8 million and the $1.25 million contribution to the Good Neighbor Fund. Keep in mind these charges do not impact our ongoing results. Now let's turn to the impact of the oral decision it's expected to have on ongoing earnings. Assuming a $17 million increase and implementation in new rates in mid-August, we expect to earn an incremental $0.20 over last year. And in 2012, we expect to add another $0.27 to earnings, reflecting the full year impact of the $72 million rate increase. Although we're disappointed in the New Mexico rate case process, our regulated business have certainly made a lot of progress over the last couple of years. In 2009, PNM's regulated rate-base return was 3.7%. This year, we expect to earn approximately 7.5%, and next year, our return-on-rate base will be even higher reflecting the full year impact of the $72 million rate relief. Lastly, I want to assure you that we have not lost our sight of the ultimate goal, which is to earn our allowed return, and we will not stray from this path. Now moving on to Slide 13. As Pat mentioned earlier, we are affirming our original earnings guidance for the year. We still expect consolidated ongoing earnings to range between $0.80 and $0.92, with the regulated earnings coming in between $0.89 and $0.96, and our unregulated businesses contributing between $0.06 and $0.16. I do want to add one caveat. Our guidance assumes a $72 million rate increase and implementation of the new rates in mid-August. We are also maintaining our original guidance range of $0.62 to $0.67 for PNM Electric despite the PRC's denial of inner rate relief and the delay in the rate case ruling. We remain confident that PNM can deliver earnings within a range of -- for a number of reasons. With a mid-August implementation, we expect an incremental $0.04 to PNM's earnings this year. Additionally, as Pat mentioned earlier, we plan to continue to synchronize our expenses with our revenues. The company currently has more than 40 process-improvement projects underway to increase efficiencies throughout the organization. The focus of these projects is wide-ranging and incorporates all functional areas within PNM Resources. Currently, we expect these projects will create a number of cost synergies that will carry forward into next year. We plan to provide you with an update on our progress on or before we issue 2012 earnings guidance. Also unchanged from last quarter are our unregulated EBITDA guidance ranges and our outlook for cash earnings. Before I turn it back to Pat, I want to briefly discuss some internal changes that we'll be making in our Investor Relations department. As we've mentioned many times in the past, we are continually looking for ways to streamline our operations and control our cost. Furthermore, we're actively engaged in developing our employees and increasing their breadth of experience. As a result, effective August 15, Gina Jacobi, our current director of IR, will be moving to Enterprise Risk Management. And Lisa Eden, currently our Assistant Treasurer, will be adding to her current duties by taking on the role formerly held by Gina. Lisa is currently responsible for communicating with rating agencies and our relationship banks, so adding equity investors and analysts to the mix is a natural fit. If you have any questions, feel free to call Gina through the 15th. Thereafter, Lisa Eden will be your primary IR contact, and we've included all contact information in the appendix. And that, I'll turn it back over to Pat for her concluding remarks.