Earnings Labs

Ternium S.A. (TX)

Q4 2017 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 21, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Denise and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time I'd like to welcome everyone to the Ternium Fourth Quarter 2017 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. Sebastian Martí, you may begin your conference. Sebastian Martí: Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. My name is Sebastian Martí and I am Ternium's Investor Relations Director. Ternium issued a press release yesterday detailing its results for the fourth quarter 2017. This call is complementary to that presentation. Joining me today is Mr. Daniel Novegil, Ternium's CEO; Mr. Maximo Vedoya, Ternium's Mexico's Executive President; and Mr. Pablo Brizzio, Ternium's Chief Financial Officer; who will discuss Ternium's performance in the fourth quarter and the industries environment. At the conclusion of our prepared remarks, we will open up the call to your questions. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this conference call contains forward-looking information and that actual results may vary from those expressed or implied. Factors that could affect results are contained in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and on Page 2 in today's webcast presentation. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Novegil.

Daniel Novegil

Analyst · the Securities and Exchange Commission and on Page 2 in today's webcast presentation. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Novegil

Good morning to everybody and thanks a lot for participating in today's earnings call. I will start today by mention Maximo Vedoya who will be the CEO of Ternium from March the 1st on; he's also participating in our call. As you know Maximo joined Ternium in 1992 and we have been closely working together throughout these years. And no doubt that he have been important leader of our success story you allow me to quantify. I would like to start with a brief comment about the recent announcement we made with Nippon Steel regarding Usiminas governance and then a very short introduction on our performance in 2017. Afterwards, Maximo will share his view about the current state of the industry and our business with the Pacific specific what you're seeing in Mexico. And finally, Pablo Brizzio will talk about our performance in the fourth quarter before opening the door to the Q&A session and questions. So, let me start with Usiminas issue. I am really very pleased that we were able to finish our agreement with Nippon Steel regarding Usiminas governance. We talk a lot about this issue in other conference calls as well as seen in better day. There are a very long negotiation process and internal discussions. We finally reached an agreement that allow us to find a solution that is acceptable and good for both parties. And in my view and our view, no doubt that we'll have a positive impact in Usiminas. This agreement in March in no positive chapter in Nippon Steel and Ternium relationship and I believe that because of the details of the agreement will prevent new conflicts in the future. And now we will work together towards reveling our mutual trust and strengthening our partnership. We remain commitment, we'll have the…

Maximo Vedoya

Analyst · the Securities and Exchange Commission and on Page 2 in today's webcast presentation. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Novegil

Thank you, Daniel. And good morning to everyone. I would like first to give you my view regarding the state of the steel industry. The current environment for the steel industry is fairly favorable and I believe we will have an opportunity to continue our good performance in 2018. Till conception, we continue growing at a global level and there is synchronized economic growth in most of the biggest markets in the world. China's government is also in a process to correct over capacity, shutting down inefficient and mostly polluting facilities and merging steel companies in a search for more rationality. It is true that China has still a long way to go but this seems to be a good starting point. After our record steel import levels in the last two years, I mean 2015 and 2016, of more than a 100 million tons every year. Last year 2017, China still export decreased by 31%. From the fundamental perspective, 2018 looks like a year in which a larger just economies in the Americas will continue growing at a healthy rate. Both the U.S. and Mexican steel markets are having an attractive growth with apparent steel conception increasing between 4% and 5% in 2017. And a commitment from the government to prevent and fair trade. In addition, Brazil, Argentina, and Columbia are in a different stage of economic recovery and we are quite positive regarding the steel market for the year to come. Going now to Mexico, our sales in the industrial customers have been the driver of shipments growth in the country over the last past years. The automotive industry, the home appliance and HVAC industries, heavy equipment and metal mechanic industries, all of them grew in 2017 and we expect them to continue doing well in 2018. On…

Pablo Brizzio

Analyst · the Securities and Exchange Commission and on Page 2 in today's webcast presentation. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Novegil

Thanks, Maximo. And good morning and thank you for participating in our conference call. As Daniel said, I will give you an overview of our performance in the fourth quarter and afterwards we will go directly to the Q&A section. Let's please turn now to page 3 on today's webcast presentation. Our performance continues to be strong in the fourth quarter of the year with EBITDA of $502 million. This is different from what we have anticipated in our last quarterly results conference call since impart to a nonrecurring gain as what we see further on. Before we continue, let me remind you that the quarter we reported yesterday, the fourth quarter is the first one that includes the full consolidation of Ternium Brazil. These natural results is in high achievements than in the third quarter are more so when compared to 2016. Having said that, looking a third news EBITDA per ton on the lower left side, an EBITDA margin on the higher right side will report in the fourth quarter a rather stable margin of $147 per ton or 18% of net sales. Despite the full consolidation of Ternium Brazil, which is natural for a slab producer has, as you know has lower margin than an integrated producer such as Ternium. The stability was in part aided by the $43 million nonrecurring gain related to retracted price adjustment on Ternium Mexico electricity sales between December 2016 and October 2017. As for net income in the fourth quarter of the year, we reported $198 million equivalent to earnings per eight years of $0.92, a $0.07 sequential decrease due to a higher effective tax rate as what we see further on. In the following page, page 4, we can see that in the fourth quarter, Ternium's net sales in Mexico…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Ivano Westin with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Ivano Westin

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead

Hi, good morning. Thanks for the questions. The first one, I just had to point so much I say, it's created an extent the agreement on with Calvert in 2020. So, I'd appreciate if you comment on the ration of these why towards the at 2020 not beyond. And if you could comment on the market price on the price that are there, there if it's similar to the market price, that will get not the regions. And also on the CSA, you also commented that you may take the advantage of the recovery in Brazil. I just wonder if you can comment on the maximum amount of volume that you can sell to the local market in Brazil. Also, on the outlook that you mentioned, your anticipated expect a higher a revenue per ton in Mexico in lesser extent in Argentina. So, I just wonder if you can comment where you expect the premium between U.S. price and Mexico price to normalize moving forward. And if you could also comment or expect some of your slab cost in Mexico. Thank you.

Daniel Novegil

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead

All right, thanks for the question. And well, regarding the Calvert agreement and the Calvert situation, we finally decided to sit down with Mittal and attain their request to extend their duration of the contract, so that we decided in full agreement and in consensus to extend the maturity to December 2020. Or in other words, from 24 months to 40 months. Important to say, that it is the same total volume and that the rest of the commercial terms of the agreement remain exactly the same. That means that shipments will go from 2 million tons per year to around 1.2 a million tons per year; that is quite good for us and I believe that is totally understandable that it would be convenient to both party to extend duration period. We will be selling most of the production to Mexico, Argentina, and third parties. When talking about third parties, I am referring to local and overseas customers, just for you to have an idea and answer your question in 2018, we are planning to sell approx. 1.2 million tons to Calvert and they extended contract or amended contract around 1.2 million tons of local phase in phase in Brazil mainly to Usiminas. When talking about Usiminas, I'm talking about Cubatao, former cosepa plant that some time ago decided to close down their upstream production. So, they closed down the blast furnaces and the continuous caster and have to supply their re-rolling binds lapse of third parties. And a little over 2 million tons to other Ternium's facilities. Including in that, some small sales, some I would say few tons to some third parties. The new majority, in our view has a better feet with our expansion plants in Mexico, as you know that the new hot rolling mill…

Ivano Westin

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead

Okay, very pleasing, very much. If you could comment on the scrap cost that expect moving forward in Mexico, that would be highly appreciated.

Daniel Novegil

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead

The scrap. Well, this is a nice question because as you know we have had a quite convenient so to speak a base cost given that they supply of iron ore have been stable and growing and so the iron ore didn’t grow as fast as the prices went up in the last year. Also the carbon is in a stable situation. In the case of the carbon, you will always have to be alert to climate disruptions to environment disruptions because the patch of carbon is obviously heavily impacted by a climate kind of volatilities. But at the end, I would say that even when the prices, the cost of our raw material went up, do doubt during 2017, the prices overpass these increasing cost. So, that they didn’t have profitability of the sector, the state sector went up. Regarding the scrap, as you mention is a good point because what we are looking at is that in the case of China, China is cutting production and when I say it's cutting production, I'm referring especially to blast furnaces, iron capacity, environmental and kind of facilities. And so that when the production had to follow the demand that this is still growing in China, the steel consumption in China grew 3% in 2017 and I expect that we will be maybe witness in another 3% in 2019 as I will mention afterwards. So, that in order to catch up with this increase in total upper and steel use in China, it was some pressure in the local market of China on the scrap. And this pressure will continue. So, I would say that regarding raw materials I see a good and nice supply base in iron ore, I see coal goal going down but we have to be alert, some climate volatilities in scrap maybe we can expect to grow. But as you know because the structure of Ternium is not that sensitive to scrap, because we are only buying marginal quantities of scrap to complement the iron ore that is coming from our own mine and also from a valid especially through the system of Corumba in the north of Argentina. Also important to mention regarding the raw material is the gas that is intensively operation in Mexico. In Mexico we are gas intensive in energy and we are coal intensive in Argentina at the same token. And the gas is just has remained very low in relative terms to the history and in relative terms to other comparable. So, in all, maybe we can expect some increase in scrap in the U.S.A. because of increase in production of the many needs related to the 232 action. Then we will maybe looking at some increases in quarter of a scrap as well in China. But the increase in scrap is not having an important effect in our cost base because of the effect that this is only marginal raw material for us.

Ivano Westin

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead

It's very clear. Thank you, very much.

Daniel Novegil

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead

Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from [Carrick Cajek] with Bank of America. Please go ahead. -- Carrick Cajek, your line is open. Your next question comes from the line of John Brandt with HSBC. Please go ahead.

John Brandt

Analyst · John Brandt with HSBC. Please go ahead

Hi, good morning, Gentlemen. I'm hoping you could expand a little bit on your section 232 comments and the implications. I'm wondering, it seems pretty clear that the U.S. government is going to have some sort of protectionist measure whether it's a increased tariff or a CODA. I'm wondering what that means for you if you still see the connection between U.S. steel prices and Mexico prices or if potentially there is a disconnect between the two if you expect to see imports that were previously bound for the U.S. if they could find their way into Mexico or any other implications that you could think of regarding the section 232. And then secondly, I wanted to ask just coming back to Ternium Brazil, if you could talk a little bit about the margins that you're seeing on that mill is as you ramp up as you increase the efficiency, what sort of cost savings you're seeing from producing your own slabs versus buying in the locket. Thank you.

Daniel Novegil

Analyst · John Brandt with HSBC. Please go ahead

Thank you, John. Well, regarding the 232, we esteemed or no the effect we add in the process of analyzing percent in our sales against the different scenarios. There is a recommendation as you know coming from the DOC with a three different vectors or three different scenarios. One is the first one is increased endurance across the board on 24%. The second one is an increase of duty for 12 countries, plus CODAs based upon report sales, export sales to the U.S.A. in 2017. And third, it is another scenario the further scenario is the CODAs related to exports CODA no endurance related to exports in 2017. The U.S. President could take a final decision regarding that what to do on the recommendation of the DOC and there is a day that this April the 11th, you know that maybe he could go either for one of the options that I mention, again increased endurance across the board, increase of endurance with a mix of CODAs as well and core CODAs and the U.S. President could take a final decision that could be either be one of the options that I mention or a combination of the three or even postponing the decision for a while and dealer having more information in relation with the impact to the industry in the domestic markets exports of the U.S. and so on and so forth. While in more in detail, maybe this point makes a maximum you could expand on which is your view on the 232 in the Mexican market in and also in the rest of the world.

Pablo Brizzio

Analyst · John Brandt with HSBC. Please go ahead

Yes, sure. First of all I think that the recommendations that the DOC made. Well, they were rather harsh recommendations, I think nobody was expecting to have the three recommendations very cut. The end they're looking for clearly to increase utilization of the steel industry in the U.S. from 75% or around 75% they have today to a little bit more of 80%. Although, they're very different between the different products. And as Daniel mentioned, we really don’t know what the President is going to decide. Higher tariff or CODAs if the set of the booth, exactly the three ones they mention could put a heavy burn and also in the competitors of the U.S. manufacturing industry cost or the consumers cost increase also. So, we really don’t know where this is going, as what effects this will have for us for Ternium based on this information that we have today, we don’t anticipate a significant impact for us in the near future. Neither from our exports to the U.S. market from our Brazilian operation and as you know Ternium Mexico export are quite marginal to the U.S. So, we don’t expect there to have any problems. As you said prices in Mexico, usually follow prices in the U.S. we think this is going to continue although at a much I mean prices in the U.S. would probably go higher much quickly but we are confident that the government from Mexico and all the other governments of the region could take action to avoid collateral effects involving on fair trade that the force that today goes to the U.S. and tomorrow we can we'll try to go to Mexico to Brazil. We are very confident that the government will take action of these. So, I think we're not seeing a major disruption for Ternium in this.

Daniel Novegil

Analyst · John Brandt with HSBC. Please go ahead

Yes. Even when we don’t know, yet we'll see some if any.

Pablo Brizzio

Analyst · John Brandt with HSBC. Please go ahead

Yes. If any. Coming in there.

Daniel Novegil

Analyst · John Brandt with HSBC. Please go ahead

That you're right. But in anyway and going to the second question regarding the Brazil margin, I would say that we enter into CSA recently. We see room for efficiencies in cost, we see room for in efficiencies in volume. We are getting very good levels of production, also put in Exiros, our procurement portal in the procurement base of the company. We'll no doubt have an impact of positively a positive impact in the cost. But Pablo might back to you to mention on margins.

Pablo Brizzio

Analyst · John Brandt with HSBC. Please go ahead

Yes, okay. But basically you mention remain items that we are working with, the only thing I wanted to mention is even though we consolidated fully Ternium Brazil in the fourth quarter, the margin that we were able to stay are still very high with a margin of over 18% during the fourth quarter. When we are fully reflecting the Brazilian operation is a way to show that we are very hard working on this things that you that you mention which ware increasing volumes and reducing cost that will at the very end reflect in of course in the lower margin in that the rate of our operation because it's only slab production. But we are not expecting to see a significant impact or a significant reaction in the final number for Ternium.

John Brandt

Analyst · John Brandt with HSBC. Please go ahead

Okay, thank you. Just a follow-up on the section 232. If the U.S. increases tariff on imports. The 1.2 million tons that you sent to the Calvert facility that extra cost needs to be borne by the Calvert facility not by yourselves. Is that correct?

Pablo Brizzio

Analyst · John Brandt with HSBC. Please go ahead

Yes. We, our current analysis on what we are real needs that the effect or the measures will not affect our exports to the Calvert facility.

Daniel Novegil

Analyst · John Brandt with HSBC. Please go ahead

Because they contact the base upon delivery duty unpaid that means that we have an export tax on Brazil we should pay. This export tax and with customer has an import tax or tariff or whatever, it has to repaid by them because as I said before the contact is based upon delivery, duty, and pace.

John Brandt

Analyst · John Brandt with HSBC. Please go ahead

Thank you, very much. Very helpful.

Daniel Novegil

Analyst · John Brandt with HSBC. Please go ahead

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Thiago Lofiego with Bradesco BBI. Your line is open.

Thiago Lofiego

Analyst · Bradesco BBI. Your line is open

Thank you. Gentlemen, two questions on my side. The first one on the steel inventory buildup in Mexico, just trying to understand if this is a nice lead of factor or is this a change in strategy. Just trying to understand what's the reason behind the big uptick on inventory levels in Mexico. And still regarding this the free cash flow generation seeing here, could you could confirm the CapEx budget for 2018? And then the second question, if you regarding the whole inner situation and the agreement with Nippon. Once the initial lock up expires, would you consider buying Nippon stake or would you be more of a seller or you think the base case here that nothing changes? Thank you.

Daniel Novegil

Analyst · Bradesco BBI. Your line is open

Right, good. Thank you, Thiago. Regarding the inventories, no change in policy. We'll have to one with Brazil inventory level. As a matter of fact, the inventory, the cash flow that you mention first is there, you see in the companies. Not nothing that was an overrun or an expected CapEx, is that an increase in inventories because of seasonality; because of marketing service; because of putting together the numbers of Brazil that needs to be some adjustment made. Regarding the free cash flows, Pablo, you also mentioned in your presentation but you can expand on that and the relationship with the working capital.

Pablo Brizzio

Analyst · Bradesco BBI. Your line is open

Exactly, yes. We there was clearly a couple of effect during these fourth quarter that make us drove an important increasing working capital which I try to summarize during the opening remarks. But let me repeat them because I think it's very important. The first one is the normalization of the working capital in Brazil which was necessary because of the very low level of account receivables that we had at the moment of entering to the company. Then the increase in volumes to the local market and the increase in prices of slabs during the period that made us show the numbers that we're showing. At the very end, we let me comment the second issue and then I will comment on what we're expecting for the future. The second one was the mentioned recovery or adjustment of the price that we sold the energy in the system in Mexico which was $43 million. This was agreed in November last year but the collection is expected to come in the coming month. So, this is also increasing our working capital. We both items that I am mentioning is explains the most significant part of the working capital increase. As the third, we are expecting to normalize these in the first quarter and during 2018, but also you need to take into consideration that we are expecting also to increase a little bit the volumes and price. If they continue to increase, of course they will have an impact on the working capital. But we're also making to see any specific issue and we are counting on a normalization of the working capital in our Brazilian operation. So, I guess Daniel, there was a sort of birth.

Daniel Novegil

Analyst · Bradesco BBI. Your line is open

Yes. So, in Usiminas. And in Usiminas, let me comment on Usiminas, because this is an interesting topic because as you know maybe it took too long to reach these agreement but we are being working as you well know, very hard, and we discussed with you personally and with other gentlemen in this same room with all implications of reaching an agreement and a positive implications of regional agreement with Nippon Steel. It seems to me that maybe it was require for us for both of us to reach a kind of mature stage in the relationship in order to go with here in this kind of agreement that made us possible to change the governance rules of Usiminas in a way that is acceptable and good for both parties in the benefit of Usiminas always. The agreement that will reach is expected to be deployed in order to avoid similar conflicts in the future, so that we are happy with the performance in Usiminas nowadays, the performance improve after Sergio Leite was appointed as a CEO because of his action together with his leadership and to the action of other managers as well as the more positive environment. Because Brazil is rebounding and the steel industry is gaining momentum. So, we believe that a good performance will continue and the agreement is good for Ternium because it eliminates uncertainty and it will avoid as been destructed and side track so to speak from my core business and occupations. But let me go to your point on the deadlock and exit the clause, because at this point of time, let me stress that ourselves as well as Nippon, the parties will remain or remain with a strong compromise and commitment to Usiminas with a long term view. I mean, the exit clause is aimed at providing a solution to eventual conflict in the future, obviously always preserving the company interest of value. But when we enter into the new agreement, the parties are reaffirming their initial intention and commitment to reveal their mutual trust in the partnership and to work together in the benefit of Usiminas. And to help and support the management of Usiminas. So, we are not thinking at all nowadays in exercising this mechanism in four years and we have from now.

Thiago Lofiego

Analyst · Bradesco BBI. Your line is open

That's cleared, thank you. If I may, just one last question here. Do you had other product say as of $132 million in the quarter of which you mentioned in your note that part of that is the electricity sale in Mexico and the other part is Ternium Brazil's electricity sales. Could you provide a breakdown on maybe the number on Ternium Brazil's electricity sales and if that number is if we can consider that number recurring moving forward?

Pablo Brizzio

Analyst · Bradesco BBI. Your line is open

Well, Thiago, yes you're right. We have included the cost the fair way to express it the sales that we are doing of energy both in the Mexican market and the Brazilian market. The breakdown on the sales is 2/3rds in Mexico, 1/3rd in Brazil, and we are especially in the case of Mexico expecting these to sustain with fluctuation in prices because the price of energy is not the same during the year. In the case in Brazil will depend on the increase of our production but on the short period of time we should think of these levels sustaining in the coming quarters.

Thiago Lofiego

Analyst · Bradesco BBI. Your line is open

I'm sorry, Pablo, I couldn't understand exactly the end of your explanation. We got 1/3rd that is related to Brazil, will that remain or not in them?

Pablo Brizzio

Analyst · Bradesco BBI. Your line is open

Yes, will remain but at some point will be reduced because as you know we are expected to increase the production locally. So, we'll need to use a higher level of electricity. Remember that this, this is the electricity that we produce in our own plant and wonder we not consume a sale into the market. But in the short run, this should be a number that could be sustained in the coming quarter.

Thiago Lofiego

Analyst · Bradesco BBI. Your line is open

Okay, clear. Thank you.

Pablo Brizzio

Analyst · Bradesco BBI. Your line is open

You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

You next question comes from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Carlos De Alba

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Thank you very much, gentlemen. Just coming back to CSA, first question I have is, if there were any sales volumes from CSA or Ternium Brazil to either Ternium Mexico or Ternium Argentina, if you could share the volumes that will be helpful. Second one on CSA is the 1.2 million tons per year to cover will be equally distributed among the four quarters of the year. And then just coming back a little bit to the expectations on CapEx because of the new projects. Could you remind us what the CapEx outlook is for 2018 and if you have numbers for 2019; that'll be useful?

Pablo Brizzio

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Good. Regarding the Calvert operation, we will be selling approx. 1.2 million tons to Calvert per year in the coming 40 months. That means, around a 100,000 tons per month. Obviously, as it depends on the ship's capacity and level. So, you're going to have some small difference between one CODA or and the other but it should be equalized easily and in a very short period of time. Because we have the scheduling of the plan to respond the needs of Calvert and we perfectly know quality wise; volume wise; and delivery wise the needs that they have. So, the volume will continue pretty even I would say at the level of 800,000 tons per month approx. Then we have the sale team Brazil is 1.2 million tons of slab mainly to Usiminas, these number could go up. It is convenient for CSA because of the tax bracket and it is convenient for Usiminas especially obviously the former Cosepa the Cubatao plant because of prompt deliveries, I think that delivery, quality, specifications and the logistics. That is very easy for them compared with other suppliers. Then we have in Argentina, you know we in Argentina we do the session of closing done. One of the blast furnaces will continue being closed down until we have a better and more clear market indication of what is going on in the steel arena, so that we will continue be selling to Argentina around 0.5 million tons to 600,000 tons per year roughly depending on the need of Argentina. And the rest will be dedicated to serve our needs in Mexico as Maximo was mentioning it is very convenient for Mexico to be supply these high-end quality, Maximo, no?

Maximo Vedoya

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Yes. For Mexico operation, if you remember the slab facility cuts a meaning Siderurgica is our high end facility today. So, most our special customers we sell material that comes from that mill and we formally have to buy all that slabs which customers didn't like very much. So, having our own facility with our own research and development; with our own product capacity for them; I think gets huge advantage for us in the Mexican market.

Daniel Novegil

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Good. Then regarding CapEx in Brazil, we are going to be having 40 to 50 million on a normalized basis to say and then for turning to Pablo.

Pablo Brizzio

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

With the start of the new project, we should increase our CapEx level in 2018 to little lower around $600 million with the bulk of the movement moving to 2019. We're anticipating to have a CapEx level on the tier of around $1 million and then returning to more normal levels.

Carlos De Alba

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Okay. And Daniel, thank you for those answers. Just in the fourth quarter, were there any volume sold from Turnium Brazil to Turnium Mexico or Argentina?

Daniel Novegil

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Yes, there was. Of course, we need to deliver slab that we produce and there were mainly dedicated almost all dedicated to the Mexican operation.

Carlos De Alba

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Okay. And then Pablo, the guidance of higher sequential operating income for the first quarter 2018, is that considering the 350 million operating cum reporting in the fourth quarter that includes the 43 million non-recurrent or should we consider after or excluding the 42 million non-recurrent -- the 43 million non-recurrent?

Pablo Brizzio

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

You can take the number as you like. We are expecting to have a higher operating margin in the coming quarter mainly due to increase in volume in Mexico and the pricing scenario that we find. So, yes we are expecting to have an increased margin coming to the next quarter.

Carlos De Alba

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

All right. And then Daniel, I don't know if this is your last conference call. If it is I just want to say wish you all the best in your retirement or whatever else is that you are going to pursue after a very successful tenure, CEO of Ternium.

Daniel Novegil

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

I do, I appreciate your comment Carlos and you remain obviously open to talk with you and we have been doing over these years working together. I, yes, and know I will continue in the company as a Bi-Chairman of Ternium and delivering support to Maximo and the rest of the management in the strategic matters as well as institutional matters. Obviously, the operation will be in the hand -- the full hand of Maximo and I will be participating in the coming call because as a matter of fact I will be in charge of January and February. Yes. So, that I will be having, I will be there even in 2/3rds April. And as you say, as you can see we have a positive outlook. So, I will not be missing these quarter call. It could be the opposite, depending on these outlook but with this outlook no doubt I will be here you know.

Carlos De Alba

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

All right.

Daniel Novegil

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

But thanks a lot for your comment; I do appreciate your comment.

Carlos De Alba

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Caio Ribeiro with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Caio Ribeiro

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Good morning, guys. And thank you for the opportunity. So, first off I just wanted to see if you could go over some of your expectations in terms of the growth of the different demand components in Mexico. So, for the auto sector manufacturing et cetera and for 2018 and what that translates into a demand growth expectations as a whole for the 2018 in Mexico. And secondly, if you could just talk a little bit more about the one-off gain related to the electricity sales. Just exactly what the price readjustments comes from and if there is anything additional in the next quarters. Thank you.

Daniel Novegil

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Thank you Caio, I will take both of them. Demand in Mexico according to the where steel will grow in 2018; almost 3%. We think that most of that demand will continue coming from the industrial sector. It's not a huge grow but I think all the industry; the auto industry; the HVAC; the home appliances will continue growing not as pace of 2017. If you remember automobile industry in Mexico reached 3.7 million units in 2017. It was a new record and it's going to be a little bit bigger in 2018 but it's not going to be much more bigger than that. But our growth can continue growing substitution imports. I mean imports in Mexico of steel are still very high and our target is to continue growing substitution that imports. That's according to the demand. In the construction part, we don't see much change. We think it's going to be stable but we don't see much more growth there in Mexico. It's an election year in Mexico, so things are not going to improve a lot in that sense. To the electricity point, it was an adjustment in the tariff. They are, the market was steady in Mexico a couple of years ago the new electricity market. And so the unused electricity that we don't use in the Texan facility in the central electrical, we sell it to the market. The payment that the market gave us, there are two different prices. There is price on advance of the date that is given to us the day before and there is the daily or the hourly market price. Those price supposed to be same but were not the same in these nine or 10 months but the CSA pay us with a price in advance. And the losses that are now which's paying us in the daily in the hourly market price. So, that difference in these 10 or 12 months is what makes these $43 million. So, they recognize these difference and they pay to us. It's not going to be again because now they are paying us with the hourly market price.

Caio Ribeiro

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Okay perfect, that's very clear. And just a quick follow-up if I may. On Argentina, are you guys still expecting a 10% growth in volumes in 2018 or has anything changed?

Daniel Novegil

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Well, in 2018 we still expect the 9% to 10% growth and we are seeing good numbers. At the end of the Q&A, I will make a closing remark where I will mention some numbers regarding the fundamentals and the general markets of Ternium in the world, in China, and I will make some short comments in these points in particularly in Argentina. But we expect after having a 2017 with a 17.2% growth in Argentina over the very low number in 2016 it is true. But we did expect a 9% to 10% growth for 2018.

Caio Ribeiro

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Okay perfect, thank you.

Daniel Novegil

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Thank you, so much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Marcos Assumpcao with Itaú. Please go ahead.

Marcos Assumpcao

Analyst

Hi, good morning everyone. First question on NAFTA. You already gave a little bit of an update on the topic but what is your views on future auto production in Mexico? Before, I remember you had a very constructive view on auto production eventually reaching 5 million units by 2020. Do you think that could change a little bit? And also regarding the investment in Mexico in the galvanizing and the painting, do you think that painting on the discussions on NAFTA, this the CapEx could be a little bit delayed because of that or not? And last question on probably for Pablo. You mentioned before that you were worried about the difference in multiples or you were studying or analyzing why Ternium was multiples were so different than peers. What has been done so far to reduce the evaluation gap? What is your analysis on that topic as well? Thank you.

Daniel Novegil

Analyst · the Securities and Exchange Commission and on Page 2 in today's webcast presentation. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Novegil

Okay Marcos, thank you very much. Regarding NAFTA and Mexican auto production, as I said before I don't know yet what will the NAFTA recognition outcome will come. What I do see is that the last month, I am a little bit more optimistic that we are going to reach an agreement or they are going to be reach an agreement. What is clearly that I don't see today, that in 2020 Mexico is going to reach the 5 million units? I think the number it's more near the 4.4 million units than the 5 million units. I don't see any delay in the galvanize and painting, remember that these lines are for all industrial and construction industry; the galvanize is not an automotive industry or automotive line only as it would have been telling all too. This is for all markets. And I don't see any delay regardless of NAFTA negotiations.

Pablo Brizzio

Analyst · the Securities and Exchange Commission and on Page 2 in today's webcast presentation. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Novegil

Okay. Marcos, I will take the last part of your question. This is something that is continuous work in process for us since and we have been discussing this for many years. I think that the company has worked strongly in the performance and join a very good investments in the last years, especially the CSA acquisition that we understand is starting to reflect in our multiple that has been increasing during the last years. Our margin is our multiple -- sorry, is today over five which is decent but we still believe that we have room for improvement and this as we discussed in the past it's nothing that we can do immediately to change that but we will be sure that the company will continue to work very hard in time to find ways to improve that in the coming years.

Marcos Assumpcao

Analyst

Okay, perfect. The last question to Daniel probably on his use on Usiminas. Regardless of your position of buyer or seller in the future on the company, how far do you think the company is from their full value or from the full evaluation or full potential in terms of valuation?

Daniel Novegil

Analyst · the Securities and Exchange Commission and on Page 2 in today's webcast presentation. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Novegil

I don't know because this is a question of market perception and I wouldn't speculate about that. What I can see is that there is no doubt that Usiminas has a tremendous room for improvement. I mean; efficiency wise; productivity wise; streamlining wise; procurement wise; and so that the management is doing very well and with our support and working together with the expertise in of Nippon and also our support that our expertise as well. You need that there is important role for improvement. Kind of then speculate on how these increase could reflecting the value of the share but no doubt that the company is going to be performing very well and it has a tremendous potential. I always thought that when we bought the company and afterwards we had some problems but now we are I think that this is going to be doing well.

Marcos Assumpcao

Analyst

All right, perfect. Thank you, very much.

Daniel Novegil

Analyst · the Securities and Exchange Commission and on Page 2 in today's webcast presentation. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Novegil

Thanks, you're welcome.

Pablo Brizzio

Analyst · the Securities and Exchange Commission and on Page 2 in today's webcast presentation. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Novegil

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

There are no further question at this time. Switching the call back to the CEO for any closing remarks.

Daniel Novegil

Analyst · the Securities and Exchange Commission and on Page 2 in today's webcast presentation. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Novegil

Good. Well, thanks a lot for your questions. And I think what that all of us are running out of time now right now. And but let me share some final insights and fundamentals so to speak that I wanted to mention. Looking forward, it will happen in the steel consumption looks promising according with the World Steel Association. China grew 3% in 2017 and world ex-China grew also to 3% in 2017. In next April the 9th, in Mumbai, India, we will have our meeting on World Steel Association and the air con committee will present the new forecast for 2018. And maybe in these forecast we will see growth in China in 2018 apart in the steel consumption as well. Looking at our backyard, U.S.A. grew 4.8% in 2017; Mexico 4.1% up; Brazil 5.3% up; Argentina 17.2% up from a very low level in 2016 but we are still expecting an additional 9% to 10% for 2018. With these numbers, in Mexico key loss per capita is reaching to fact to a 110, well above the 110 average of Latin America being the USA 300 key loss per capita and growing from a 131 in 2009. So, Mexico grew a steel consumption per capita in the last eight to nine years, a 60% from a 131 to 210; very promising. China is cutting production. We see a good domestic end market on a steel exports going down in China from a 110 million tons in 2015 to 75 million tons in 2017; meaning a 35% decrease in production. USA and Mexico market doing quite well. Demand is as strong in oil and gas contraction infrastructure durable goods and so the capacity utilization is stable to adverse and the major levels in service centers are at a low level,…

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.