Pablo Brizzio
Analyst · the Securities and Exchange Commission and on Page 2 in today's webcast presentation.With that, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Brizzio
Thanks, Sebastián. Good morning, and thank you for participating in our conference call. As usual, I will make some brief prepared remarks while we go through the webcast presentation. After this, we will have a Q&A session.Let me give first you an update on the acquisition of CSA. As you know, there has been some news. The Brazilian antitrust authority, CADE, gave the authorization for the transaction without any adaption. We continue working in the necessary steps for the closing and it is important to note that there is a 15 days period that we have to wait to let any interested parties to present any objection on the deal. As we said before, we expect to close the transaction during the third quarter of the year. So we are working and going as expected in respect to this transaction.Now, let me give you an overview of the business environment. Steel market fundamentals in the North American region remains healthy, with steady end user demand, adequate steel inventory levels and higher than 75% capacity utilization rate. We expect these factors to be supported for steel prices in the region. Also, China's steel domestic demand and production level continue growing. At the same time, finished steel imports into the U.S. market increased in the last month, taking the import share of the U.S. market to 30% in June.The U.S. and Mexican government has been supportive of the steel industry's concern about unfair trade and we are confident this will continue in the future through antidumping, countervailing and other regulatory means to ensure a level playing field for competitors in the market.In Argentina, financial recovery in many sectors of the economy posted a strong second half of the year, and as a result, GDP in the country could grow more than 2.5% in 2017. Good operating conditions in the agribusiness industry, a pick up in the public infrastructure investment and the gradual deployment of resources for the development of shale oil and shale gas fields by local and international companies are posting an increase in steel demand. We believe these developments could support a 10% growth in flat steel consumption in Argentina for this year.Let's please turn now to Page 3 of today's webcast presentation. As anticipated in last quarter's conference call, we continue having strong performance in the second quarter of the year, probably somewhat stronger than our estimation back then. Healthy shipments and good steel prices together with our efforts to contain increases in production cost and our focus in differentiation allowed Ternium to show solid results with an EBITDA generation of $498 million in the second quarter and more than $1.8 billion during the last 12 months. EBITDA margin continued to show good levels, with 22% in the second quarter. Although we anticipated a sequential decrease in the third quarter of this year, we believe our margins should remain healthy and certainly higher than our competitor's margins.In the second quarter 2017, we have net income of $282 million, equivalent to earnings per ADS of $1.27, a $0.06 sequential decrease even though we have a higher operating income, mainly due to higher net financial expenses and an increase in the effective tax rate, as I will see -- as I will show you further during this presentation.In the following page, we can see that the second quarter Ternium net sales in Mexico continued increasing, with 3% higher shipments and 6% higher revenue per ton than in the first quarter of the year, getting us to 10% higher net sales. Although spot steel prices in the U.S. and Mexico have been recently increasing during the second quarter, they decreased. So the price reset of contract for industrial customers that have a lag of a little over 3 months will affect realized price in the third quarter, and as a result, we are guiding for some sequential decrease in revenue per ton.Regarding volumes in Mexico, we expect a sequential decrease in this market, mainly due to seasonality in the automotive and the HVAC industries that usually affect volumes in this part of the year. In the case of the construction market, we are not expecting big changes in demand, with private construction making up for some lower government investment.Let's go now to Page 5 to review the performance of the Southern Region. The Argentine market is finally beginning to show much better traction in the steel demand, as you can see from the 10% sequential increase in shipment in the second quarter. As I mentioned at the beginning of these remarks, we expect the market in Argentina to continue improving, showing significant growth in the third quarter 2017. The prices stabilized at good levels in the second quarter in this region and we expect just minor changes for the following quarter.On the next Page, we see the combined effect of this development on our consolidated sales. We have a quarterly shipment record in the second quarter of the year after a 7% sequential increase that took consolidated shipments to 2.6 million tons in the period. Together with a 4% increase in revenue per ton, our consolidated sales grew 11% in the quarter.Please turn to Page 7 now, so we can analyze in more detail the second quarter EBITDA increases. Higher prices and shipments were behind the sequential increase in EBITDA, although this was partially offset by an increase in cost mainly related to higher raw material and purchased slab cost. As I mentioned before, we expect EBITDA to decrease sequentially in the third quarter of the year due to lower shipments and operating margins.The seasonality lower volumes in Mexico will be partially offset by the improvement we anticipate for Argentina. We also expect a lower EBITDA margin with slightly lower revenue per ton in the third quarter and higher cost per ton from the earlier growth through inventories of higher cost purchased slabs and raw materials.In the following page, Page 8, we can see the same graph, but for the first half of the year. Here we can see that rising steel prices were only partially offset by higher cost. These were reflected in our EBITDA margin, which increased from 20% in the first half of last year to 22% in the same period this year. Shipments were marginally higher in all regions.Let's review net income on Page 9 now. There was a $29 million sequential decrease in net income, mainly due to higher net financial expenses and an increase in the effective tax rate, partially offset by higher operating income. Although the effective tax rate increased sequentially in the second quarter, it remained at the low 17% level. Effective tax rate in the first and second quarter of 2017 was significantly reduced by the non-cash effect of deferred taxes of the appreciation of the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar that represented 10% in the first quarter and 5% in the second.Exchange rate in Mexico and Argentina have been quite volatile in the last month. In addition to the significant appreciation of the Mexican peso, I have just mentioned, the Argentine peso depreciated 7% against the U.S. dollar in the second quarter, following a 3% appreciation in the first quarter of the year. The sequentially higher net financial expenses reflected the impact of this exchange rate fluctuation in our financial position in Argentina and in Mexico.Turning to the next page, we can see that this substantial year-over-year increases in net income in the first half of the year was related mainly to higher operating income. There was lower income tax positive effect related to the pretty lower effective tax rate I mentioned before, which in the first half of the year was 14% compared to 38% in the first half of last year, and offsetting this, there was an increase in net financial expenses, which can be mostly explained by the impact of the fluctuation of the Mexican peso in the period.On Page 11, we can see the free cash flow in the second quarter. As we anticipated in last quarter conference call, there was significant use of funds to pay for income taxes in the second quarter, mainly Mexico, and working capital continued increasing, although at a slower pace than in the first quarter, due to higher value of steel inventories with slightly lower volumes.The second quarter is where the balance of the previous year income tax has to be paid. In 2017, the cash effect of the payment of the balance of 2016 income tax was very significant, mainly as a result of the substantial increase of net income during the year in Mexico compared to the prior year 2015. This led to a negative free cash flow of $78 million in the second quarter.In the following page, we can see the same chart, but for the first half of the year. Here we can see the same effect in income tax I have just commented about and also a significant increase in working capital -- again, that in the majority happened during the first quarter of the year. As you can see in the numbers, we included it explaining the changes in working capital. A significant portion of this increase was related to higher price of steel in inventories, which reflect the increase in cost of purchased slab and other raw material flowing through inventories.There were also higher inventory volumes of steel and raw material, reflecting the increase in shipments in the period. This represented $318 million of the total increase of working capital. In addition, the net impact of trade and other receivable and payables was the use of cash of $141 million, mainly reflecting higher volume and prices of steel sales.Going now to Page 13, you can see the evolution of Ternium's quarterly cash flow from operations. CapEx and free cash flow; cash from operation was impacted in the last 2 quarter by the increase in working capital, as we have just commented, and by the increase in tax payment in the second quarter of 2107.Important to mention that tax payment should naturally come back to normal in the third quarter. However, we're not expecting to see higher working capital needs after the one we saw in the first half of this year. Consequently, free cash flow generation should be back to normal level in the third quarter of 2017.On the upper right corner, CapEx remained relatively stable. The company net debt increased to $1.2 billion and the net debt to last 12 months EBITDA ratio continued healthy at 0.7x at the end of June 2017. Of note, in the second quarter of 2000 -- or this year were dividend payment of $227 million.Okay. These were the main points I wanted to touch today. Please, Operator, we can proceed now with the Q&A session. Thanks.