Pablo Brizzio
Analyst · Bradesco. Your line is open
Thanks, Daniel. Good morning to everybody and thank you again for participating in this call. Let's begin on page 3 of the webcast presentation. As you may have seen in our press release issued earlier today, the third quarter results were very strong. EBITDA in the third quarter reached $502 million. This was 28% higher than EBITDA in the second quarter and two times EBITDA in the same quarter last year. The chart on the upper-left-side shows that EBITDA has been improving consistently over the last 12 months. A substantially lower cost of raw material, purchased slabs, and other inputs gradually went through our inventories and the steel price environment improved during the third half of 2016. In this same line EBITDA margin continues to increase, reaching 27% in the third quarter or an EBITDA per ton of $214. In the fourth quarter this year we show a change in these tendencies as it will reflect with some lag related to investor customer contract prices, the downturn in steel prices in North America that occurred after June 2016 and the increase in purchased slab prices by the end of the first half [ph] of the year. In the third quarter 2016 we had a net income of $264 million, equivalent to earnings per ADS of $1.17, a $0.39 sequential increase. In the following page we can zoom into the Mexican market where sales remain relatively stable in the third quarter as a result of a 13% sequential decrease in shipment offset by a 13% increase in revenue per ton. After increasing 10% between the first and the second quarter of the year, shipments in Mexico were at 225,000 tons lower in the third quarter affected by restocking in the commercial market over the past few months, as well as by third quarter seasonality in the automotive industry. We do not expect shipment in the Mexican market to change substantially in the fourth quarter as this market has a seasonality effect entering into December of the year. In addition, as I mentioned earlier, we expect average realized price in the fourth quarter will begin to reflect the significant decrease in steel prices over the past few months. With the usual lag effect of regular prices reset contained in industrial customer sales contract, which in average reset prices every three months. Let's review now the Southern region market performance on page 5. In this market, net sales were stable in the quarter with only 2% decrease in shipment offset by a 3% increase in revenue per ton. As Daniel mentioned, after a transition period in 2016, we lead this market bottom out in the third quarter of the year and should begin to recover in the fourth quarter to return to growth in the next year - or during next year. On the next page you can see the combined effect of this development from our consolidated sales, a 10% decrease were offset by an 11% increase in revenue per ton. In the third quarter of the year Mexico accounting for 65% of total shipments; the Southern region 23% and the other market, mainly Colombia, the U.S., and Central America, accounting for the remaining 12%. Let's review now the causes of the sequential improvement in EBITDA on page 7. The main driver of the increase was a better steel price, which as we saw increased in our main market with more strength in Mexico. EBITDA per ton increased as the better steel price was [indiscernible] partially offset by slight increase in operating cost per ton. And we have also the effect of sequential lower shipment volumes. We expect to have sequentially higher cost per ton in the fourth quarter as it will be affected by the pass through of higher slab market prices, which increased the current level at the end of the first quarter of the year - during the first half of the year - and it did not impact the cost of sales in the third quarter as a result of a first-in first-out accounting. On page 8 we see the same chart on the nine-month basis. In this year-over-year comparison you can see that EBITDA reached $1.2 billion in the first nine months as EBITDA per ton increased $406 per ton in 2015 to $162 [ph] mainly reflected substantially lower operating cost of ton partially offset by $100 decrease in revenue per ton. The decrease in operating cost per ton was mainly due to a lower cost of purchased slabs, raw material, energy and labor. Please turn now to the following page. You see a chart showing the drivers of the sequential increase in net income in the third quarter of this year. As you can see here, improvement was mainly the result of higher operating income, slightly offset by higher net financial expenses and lower gains from not-consolidated companies. The nine-month view in the next page show also operating income as the main driver behind the year-over-year increase to $562 million net income. We expect a result from non-consolidated companies mainly Usiminas and lower net financial expenses partially offset by, of course, a consequentially higher income tax expenses. Let's now review the free cash flow generated in the quarter on page 11. Working capital increased by $210 million and CapEx was $105 million. This took us to a free cash flow generation of $115 million in this quarter. The increase in working capital was mainly related to an increase in the average cost of steel as a result of a more expensive slabs flowing through inventories. Also there was a planned increase in the volume of semi-finished and finished steel [indiscernible] inventories at the end of September. On the following page we can see that in the first nine months of the year Ternium generated free cash flow of $486 million with $335 million in CapEx and $153 million increase in working capital, mainly as we commented, was the increase as of September of the year. Finally, in the last page of this presentation you can see the evolution of Ternium's quarterly cash flow from operations, CapEx and free cash flow. We continue to show pretty consistent cash generations over the quarter and stable CapEx. At the same time the Company's net debt to EBITDA ratio continues to improve as it was only 0.7 times to last 12 month EBITDA at the end of September. Though it's not apparent in the graph due to rounding, Ternium's net debt continues decreasing in the third quarter, reaching $1.05 million at the end of September, a quarterly reduction of $92 million. So, these are the remarks and the main issues I wanted to comment with you. So, please operator, we can proceed with the Q&A session. Thanks.