Daniel Novegil
Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your line is open
Good morning to everybody, and thank you very much for participating in today's conference call to review Ternium's performance in the third quarter. As always, I would like to briefly comment about some specific topics that I believe are relevant for Ternium's business and right afterwards, I will ask Pablo Brizzio to describe our performance in the third quarter 2015, and the outlook for the last quarter of the year. And then we will enter into the Q&A session. So that let me begin with some highlights about the state of the global steel industry as a whole, given that a couple of weeks ago, in Chicago, the Economic Committee of the World Steel Association in the 2015 Annual Conference issued the last short-range outlook for 2015 and 2016. After the global steel demand growth of only 0.7% in 2014, World Steel is forecasting a decrease of 1.7% in 2015. Right afterwards, they are forecasting also an increase in global steel demand of 0.7% in 2016. These forecasts, as you know, are heavily influenced by an expected decrease in China's Steel demand of 3.5% and 2.0% for 2015 and 2016, respectively. While on the other part of the coin, the world steel demand excluding China is expected to be stagnant in 2015, but to grow 2.9% in 2016. In my view, it will be very important to follow-up the Chinese Government announcement regarding the new five years plan for the period between 2016 and 2020, specifically regarding this issuance that could mean better demand prospects related to infrastructure projects and/or new capacity closures for the target of the period. There are some countries on the other side that – in which World Steel is forecasting a healthy growth in steel demand, and among them, I would like to point out especially Mexico. After an 11.7% growth in 2014, Mexico's Steel demand is forecasted to increase a healthy 4.8% in 2015 and 4.1% in 2016. In 2015, Mexico will become the largest steel market in Latin America, surpassing Brazil, a country that has, as you know, 60% more population. The auto industry in Mexico has also surpassed Brazil on car production, and it's expected to reach 5 million cars on 2020, based upon its specific announcement made by the auto industry regarding new capacity factories in Mexico, in the country. So that Mexico apparent steel use is approaching 200 kilograms per capita, well over all other major steel markets in Latin America, where the average is approximately 110 kilos per capita and this ratio grew consistently over the last 20 years. This last quarter, Ternium shipments in Mexico almost reached two-thirds of total Ternium shipments worldwide. Let me now comment on China. The decrease in China's local steel demand, coupled with a significant excess capacity, results in exports of steel under dumping conditions to the reset of the world. And no doubt that this factor is having a negative effect on steel pricing worldwide. As an example, the steel prices in the U.S. market decreased by approximately $250 per metric tonne, just in the last 12 months. In this situation, the U.S. Government has just announced preliminary countervailing determinations on corrosion-resistant steel imports from several countries and continues the investigation on dumping allegations. In addition, it has recently determined reasonable indication of material injury to the U.S. Steel industry by reason of imports of certain hot roll and cold roll coils from several different countries, preliminary determination of all these cases are expected to happen in the next few months. In the same fashion, the Mexican Government has been very receptive to the steel industry claims of unfair trade, and both governments have been very active on making sure that there is a level playing field in the U.S.A and Mexico steel markets. In Mexico, just a few weeks ago, the government implemented a tariff of 15% on imports of certain steel products. This is a temporary tariff though for a six months and excluded those countries which Mexico as prepaid agreements in place. Earlier in the year the Mexican government also imposed definitive anti-dumping duties on Chinese imports and confirmed anti-dumping duties on Russian and Kazakhstan imports of cold roll coils. At the same time, also imposed preliminary anti-dumping duties on Chinese, German and French imports of hot rolled coils. We will continue paying attention to imports coming in the markets where we operate, and we will denounce to the authorities those made under unfair trade terms and conditions. Let me now comment on how Ternium is positioned to go with this adverse and volatile steel market scenario. I do believe that there are not many other steel companies like Ternium regarding production flexibility, cash generation and balance sheet strength. As I commented some months ago in our Investor Day in New York, Ternium benefits from a very flexible and diversified production configuration, having DRI in Mexico, blast furnaces in Argentina and slab rerollings in Mexico, as well. Since the Investor Day, Ternium's main input costs have continued to decrease. Our DRI and electric-power-furnace-based facilities in Mexico got an additional 35% decrease on scrap prices from $280 to $180 per tonne and a 30% decrease on natural gas spot prices, from $2.90 to $2.10. The prices of slabs for our rerolling business went down by 20%, and iron ore and met coal for our blast furnaces in Argentina decreased by 15% and 10%, respectively. All these numbers are taken on the basis of the last number that we shared when I presented the company perspectives during the Investor Day. In addition to that, a further 8% devaluation of the Mexican peso from MXN15.60 to MXN16.60 per dollar is also helping on the portion of costs that are denominated in local currency, in domestic currency. Nowadays, approximately one-third of Ternium shipments are non-integrated, meaning for that that we are buying slabs in the amount of around 3 million tonnes per year. That, considering the state of the industry and the volatility in the steel market, it is not a bad position to be in, especially taking into consideration the gap between the slab price and the hot rolled coil and the cold rolled coil prices. This portion, non-integrated of our business, is giving us significant flexibility, not only from a production standpoint but also from a financial point of view, because it's enabling us to reduce working capital when it is needed just by switching production from one facility to the other, for example, to produce slabs in Argentina to be shipped to our needs of rerolling in Mexico. Also, from a profitability point of view the non-integrated business - that means the rerolling of the slabs tends to have a more stable margin than the integrated business, as it relies in the spread between the price of the slab and the price of finished products, which tend to move in sync. This spread has been fairly stable, at around $200 per tonne, when compared to hot rolled coil prices for a long time now. On top of this, as we always do, we continue working on our cost-cutting programs, like the contractors efficiency program, the logistic streamlining, the energy saving program and the continuous improvement programs. I would also like to mention that another issue that distinguishes Ternium from the peers is the very strong balance sheet. As of the end of September, Ternium had a net debt of only $1.3 billion, a $200 million decrease in the quarter and equivalent to only 1.2 times last 12 months of EBITDA. At the end, and all in all, I believe that Ternium nowadays is very well positioned to navigate in this volatile market and difficult world, and Ternium will continue showing these good results in the future. So that were the main issues that I wanted to share with you today, and I will ask now Pablo to take over and to give you a description on Ternium's performance before going to the Q&A. Please, Pablo, go ahead.