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Two Harbors Investment Corp. (TWO)

Q3 2012 Earnings Call· Wed, Nov 7, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Two Harbors Third Quarter 2012 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for this conference call, Ms. July Hugen. You may begin.

July Hugen

Analyst

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning. Welcome to Two Harbors Third Quarter 2012 Financial Results Conference Call. With me this morning are Tom Siering, President and Chief Executive Officer; Brad Farrell, Chief Financial Officer; and Bill Roth, Co-Chief Investment Officer. After my introductory comments, Tom will provide some insights into the current macro environment and potential impact to our strategy. Then Brad will highlight some key items from our financial results, and Bill will review our portfolio performance. The press release and financial tables associated with today's conference call were filed yesterday with the SEC. If you do not have a copy, you may find them on our website. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet and may be accessed on our website in the Investor Relations section under the Events and Presentations link. In addition, we'd like to encourage you to reference the accompanying presentation to this call, which can also be found on our website. Before management begins its discussion of its third quarter results, we wish to remind you that remarks made by Two Harbors' management during this conference call and the supporting slide presentation may include forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements reflect our views regarding future events, and are typically associated with the use of words such as anticipate, target, expect, estimate, believe, assume, project and should or other similar words. We caution investors not to rely unduly on forward-looking statements. They imply risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from expectations. We urge you to carefully consider the risks described in our filings with the SEC, which may be obtained on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov. We do not undertake any obligation to update or correct any forward-looking statements if later events prove them to be inaccurate. I would like to draw your attention to the second webinar in our ongoing series, which covers our views on Agency prepayments and is the first in a 2-part series. The webinar can be found on our website. We intend to post additional webinars in the future to provide investors and analysts with management insights regarding the market and our business. I'd also like to mention that an archived webcast of our Analyst and Investor Day, which took place in New York on October 10, can also be found on our webpage. I will now turn the call over to Tom, who will provide some highlights as summarized on Slide 3.

Thomas Edwin Siering

Analyst · Sterne Agee

Thanks, July. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our third quarter earnings call. Before I comment on the quarter, I wish to take a moment to note our sadness with the passing of Annaly's CEO, Mike Farrell. Mike was truly a pioneer in the mortgage REIT space. On behalf of everyone at Two Harbors, I would like to extend my deepest condolences to Mike's family, friends and colleagues. We are also thinking about the victims of Sandy, which has been dubbed by many the weather event of a lifetime. Our hearts go out to the families who suffered the loss of loved ones, and we are hopeful for a speedy cleanup of the East Coast. Now moving to my prepared remarks. I'll begin with an overview of our performance this quarter. It was truly an exceptional period from a return perspective. During the third quarter, we recorded $524.4 million of comprehensive income. To put this metric into perspective, it represents over 4x our book value when we commenced operations 3 years ago, and represents an annualized return of over 70%. Our book value increased 15.1% to $11.44 per share during the third quarter, representing a total return of 18.7% when combined with our dividend of $0.36. We generated core earnings of $0.31 per share, which Brad will discuss in a few moments. Finally, we are pleased to report total stockholder return of approximately 90% since our launch in October 2009, including dividends and capital appreciation. Next, I'd like to talk about the capital we have recently raised. Early in the quarter, we completed a public offering, raising approximately $592 million in net proceeds. As previously discussed, we used these funds primarily to purchase Agency bonds, but also purchase non-Agency securities in single-family residential properties. Given the aforementioned investment…

Brad Farrell

Analyst

Thank you, Tom, and good morning. I'll begin my prepared comments with an overview of our financials, provide a quick update on repo financing, and finally, wrap up with comments about book value. Please turn to Slide 6. Core earnings at $0.31 represented an 11.3% annualized return on average equity. As a reminder, core earnings is largely a function of our portfolio size, our investment spread, our cost of hedges and our expense management. On July 18, we completed an accretive public offering of 57.5 million shares for net proceeds of approximately $592 million. Consistent with our expectations and historical experience, we completed the deployment of proceeds by the end of September. This deployment process during the quarter impacted core earnings. As we have seen -- as we have been discussing for some months, we saw lower projected yields on securities recently acquired, driving a marginally lower net interest margin. Bill will comment further on this shortly, but importantly, the CPR on our current portfolio has remained low and stable despite low interest rates. That said, the somewhat lower net interest margin on newly invested capital does have an impact on core earnings. Next, similar to last quarter, our hedging strategy and extension of repo maturities, especially for non-Agencies, contributed to lower core earnings. The hedging impact is primarily a result of the cost of credit default swaps, hedging our non-Agency RMBS portfolio and amortization runoff in our interest-only securities, which hedged interest rate risk on our Agency RMBS portfolio. While these amortization costs pressure core earnings, they represent a hedge to protect book value over time. Finally, our expense ratio, as a percent of average equity, ticked slightly higher to 0.9% from 0.8% in the second quarter due largely to expenses related to real estate investments. Excluding the investment…

William Meyer Roth

Analyst · KBW

Thanks, Brad. And thank you, everyone, for joining us today. The search for yield dominated the investment landscape during the third quarter. This drove valuations higher across credit-sensitive asset classes, including both Agency and non-Agency mortgage-backed securities. Several key headlines served as a backdrop to this rally. First, as Tom noted, the Fed committed to keeping the funds rate low into 2015. In conjunction with this, the Fed also committed to open-end purchases of an additional $40 billion in MBS per month. The announcement had a tremendous impact on the Agency RMBS market, as spreads tightened by roughly 50 basis points before recently retracing about half of this move. The Fed also sold the remainder of its Maiden Lane III assets, primarily CDOs. These sales were well-received by investors, and this was additionally encouraging, in that it removed another source of supply of distressed assets from the market. Mortgage-backed securities had an incredible quarter, as you will note on the bottom left of Slide 8. A simple duration hedged Agency strategy returned 3.8% -- 3.6%, while the ABX 06-2 AAA index appreciated by 12.1%. We estimate that a simple capital allocation strategy of 50% Agency and 50% non-Agency subprime would have generated a blended return of 7.9%. We are extremely proud of our portfolio's performance this quarter. Our hybrid strategy outperformed these benchmarks and delivered a total return on book value of 18.7%. Both our Agency portfolio and non-Agency portfolio significantly contributed to this performance, delivering $114 million and $330 million in unrealized gains, respectively, net of hedges. We believe that our opportunistic approach towards capital allocation and our security selection process drove this performance. During the quarter, prepayment protected pools outperformed generics, while our non-Agency bond holdings experienced greater appreciation in comparison to many other non-Agency securities, as well…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Bose George with KBW. Bose George - Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods, Inc., Research Division: And congratulations, Bill, on assuming the CIO -- sole CIO role. I have a couple of questions. Actually, first, in terms of incremental capital, just curious where you see the value, Agencies versus non-Agencies, and if you can quantify kind of the returns in both those markets.

William Meyer Roth

Analyst · KBW

Bose, thank you very much, appreciate it. So as I mentioned, obviously, spreads and yields have come down, which has been great for book value. Right now, we see Agency yields, depending on what you're looking at, are anywhere in the 1s to low- to mid-2s, which obviously is -- those are low rates, but at the same time, hedging cost are extremely low. So the investment ROE on an Agency strategy today, we think, looks very much like very low double digits. On the non-Agency side, yields, depending on whether you're looking at prime or newly issued AAAs, all the way down to subprime, range anywhere from about 3% to 7%. Subprime bonds that -- which is what we have typically been focusing on, are somewhere in the 5.5% to 6.5% and occasionally, you can get 7%. So that also sort of leads you to sort of a low double-digits investment ROE using the leverage that we apply. Bose George - Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods, Inc., Research Division: Okay, great. That's helpful. And in terms of the leverage, I mean, does increase in book value make it look like your quarter end leverage is lower? Could we see assets increase as kind of the mark-to-market leverage goes up a little bit?

William Meyer Roth

Analyst · KBW

Yes, I mean, that's a great question. There were, obviously, some influences on the leverage, part of which was the increase in our book value, and the other part was the warrant exercise right at the end of the quarter. The way we think about that is, is that we want to deploy capital where -- into opportunities that we think are attractive and deliver returns. So right now, we're being -- obviously, we don't have a lot of monthly cash flow, which is good, because our prepayment rate is so low, but that capital will be deployed as we see opportunities that makes sense, as I mentioned earlier, into those different strategies. At the same time, I would also note that we continue to buy single-family residential properties, and we still think that that's a terrific opportunity for our shareholders. Bose George - Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods, Inc., Research Division: Okay, great. And then just one last thing, just because you're doing the first post-election call, just curious on your thoughts on potential policy changes that could impact the market, especially the Agency markets in terms of prepayments.

William Meyer Roth

Analyst · KBW

Yes, I don't know how many people are a little bleary-eyed from staying up watching. I know I am a little bit. The -- there's probably less uncertainty, given that there's not a change in the regime. We kind of know what the current regime, what their axes are. The market rally in rates today is certainly evidence of the lower for longer mind-set. At the same time, it appears that there's going to be a continued emphasis on trying to help homeowners. Whether that results in any significant changes is really unclear, given the Republicans' control of the House. So I think we'll just have to wait and see, but certainly, the trends that we've seen over the last 6 to 12 months, I would expect to be maintained, if not [indiscernible].

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Douglas Harter with Credit Suisse. Douglas Harter - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: I was wondering if you could talk about how some of those other sort of new initiatives, how the returns have fared in those sort of -- in the search for yield, have those compressed as much as we've seen in the sort of -- in the securities where you guys have invested?

William Meyer Roth

Analyst · Credit Suisse

Yes, Doug, thanks a lot for that. The one I noted, particularly securitization, the math on that, as I have commented actually in recent months, has gotten better, primarily because while the loans themselves, the value of those versus -- is fairly unchanged. The credit enhancement levels have come down, and the AAA part of the capital structure is trading better, which means that the value created in the subs is better. So while, if -- for a long period of time, we saw yields on those in the single digits, high single digits. At this point, it appears as if they're into the double digits. Now that being said, we haven't completed the securitization. So if and when we do, we'll certainly have better clarity on that, and be happy to share that with you. In terms of some of the other initiatives, I mean, these are all things that it's not -- we haven't partaken of any of those. Those are just on our radar screen. I think others have noted what yields on, say, MSRs are. It's unclear what yields on GSE credit bonds might be because those haven't come out. I guess the point was is that, as a hybrid, we're excited that we don't necessarily just have to stick to Agency securities or non-Agencies. There's just other things that dovetail with our competencies, and obviously, if we do get involved, we'll be happy to share the economics on what those look like.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Jason Weaver with Sterne Agee. Jason Weaver - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc., Research Division: I just have one question relating -- and you may have said this during your comments earlier, but I might have missed it. Could you just update us on the timing with regard to the Silver Bay spin-out?

Thomas Edwin Siering

Analyst · Sterne Agee

Sure. Thanks, Jason, it's Tom. Yes, we really can't -- it's going through the SEC process, and so that process is ongoing, which is typical, and so the spin-out will be subject to the timing around that. Other than that, we can't really comment.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Ken Bruce with Bank of America.

Kenneth Bruce - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Bank of America

My question really relates back to your discussion around the securitization business. Can you maybe get into some of the additional investments that would need to be made to basically develop either a conduit or how would you develop a flow of loans for securitization?

William Meyer Roth

Analyst · Bank of America

Sure. Thanks for joining us, Ken. Yes, the -- yes, as you know, we started down this path working with Barclays, and we have a number of originators that we've been working with. You may have seen that we recently hired Dan Koch, who's just a terrific addition to our team. He's got a tremendous capability in this regard in terms of working with originators and helping us build that out. I mean, I think the key parts of this are obviously generating solid and working relationships with originators, who we want to partner with, and then at the same time, being able to on-board loans, hedge them, et cetera, underwrite and oversee. So there is a little bit of a process to that, and we're very excited about it because we think that, as we go forward, at some point, the government's share of the mortgage market will come down, whether it's through lowering loan limits or increasing GSEs or whatever. And as the securitization math hopefully stays attractive and the non-Agency market reopens up, we just think it's a terrific opportunity. So we're being very thoughtful about it, and we'll keep you posted as that -- as it unfolds.

Kenneth Bruce - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Bank of America

Right. So, I guess, maybe the way to just thumbnail it is that -- and I share your enthusiasm as to the government may be reducing its role, and we've seen some encouraging signs in terms of the best execution across some of these asset classes kind of working in favor of securitization. So it's just your assumption of developing a pipeline and a distribution mechanism, and then in essence, getting your first deal done to solidify where execution levels would be, and kind of developing it from that standpoint?

William Meyer Roth

Analyst · Bank of America

Yes, exactly. We started thinking about this quite a while ago, and as you know, there have not been that many deals done and there's a bunch of reasons behind it. But as we look forward, we're much more optimistic, even though it's taken longer than I think -- if you talk to any mortgage trader on the street, I think uniformly, people would be surprised that it's taken time, but there's a lot of issues, and it seems to be opening up and we're excited about it, but I think that you laid it out correctly.

Kenneth Bruce - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Bank of America

And maybe just one last one on that point, is QRM and QM a necessary element to moving that forward in real size or can you move around that?

William Meyer Roth

Analyst · Bank of America

That's a great question. I think that the market is -- the market's already sort of working on the jumbo side. I mean, banks are originating them. Underwriting is much more -- people say underwriting is substantially more restrictive or stringent. But if you look back over decades, as opposed to just in the last 5 or 6 years, underwriting is actually pretty reasonable in terms of the kind of loans that are being made today. So the market's sort of already voting on that, and it's not clear when any of that -- of those items will be resolved, but in the meantime, if we can originate loans that we like at levels that we like, I think that would speak for itself.

Kenneth Bruce - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Bank of America

Okay. And changing directions, but staying in the alternative investment opportunities, have -- and I apologize if I missed this in an earlier comment, but have you been looking at mortgage servicing assets in any capacity as a potential investment?

William Meyer Roth

Analyst · Bank of America

Yes, on -- and you might have joined late. On Slide 11, we put together a little list of items, and it's not exhaustive. It's just meant to be representative of potential opportunities. And as we build out our team, Tom mentioned that we've added Nick Smith, who has expertise in MSRs. I mentioned Dan and Bill Greenberg joining us recently. We haven't done anything on that yet, otherwise we would have told you guys, but it's certainly on our radar screen. One of the reasons that they're very attractive is because the barriers of entry and the messiness of the product is quite high. But that being said, it's certainly within our wheelhouse, and that's why it's on the radar screen. [indiscernible] if we get involved in it, we'll be sure to have something to say about it.

Operator

Operator

I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the conference back to Tom Siering for closing remarks.

Thomas Edwin Siering

Analyst · Sterne Agee

Thanks, Kevin. Thank you for joining our call. As we have outlined, we think there is incredible opportunity for our business, and we are optimistic as we look ahead. Thanks, again, for joining us today and have a great week.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does concludes today's presentation. You may now disconnect and have a wonderful day.