Lainie Goldstein
Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed with your question
Thanks Karl and good afternoon everyone. Today I'll discuss our fourth quarter and fiscal 2021 results and then review our financial outlook for the full year and first quarter of fiscal 2022. Please note that additional details regarding our actual results and outlook are contained in our press release. As Strauss mentioned, our strong momentum continued into the fourth quarter and we significantly exceeded our net bookings guidance for the fourth quarter and the year. I'd like to thank our talented colleagues around the world for their passion and dedication which has been inspiring especially given the challenges that COVID-19 has presented us with. Starting with our fourth quarter results. Total net bookings grew 8% to $785 million as compared to our outlook of $602 million to $652 million. These outstanding results marked our highest level of fourth quarter net bookings on record. During the period, recurrent consumer spending grew 17% and accounted for 67% of total net bookings, as compared to our outlook of 5% growth. Our outperformance was primarily due to the incredible performance of NBA 2K. Digitally-delivered net bookings grew 8% and accounted for 92% of the total. This result exceeded our outlook of a 10% decline, due to the outperformance of both recurrent consumer spending and digitally-delivered full game sales. During the fourth quarter, 74% of console game sales were delivered digitally, up from 63% last year. GAAP net revenue grew 10% to $839 million, while cost of goods sold decreased to $280 million, including a reversal of expense of $65 million related to forfeitures of previously granted stock awards. Operating expenses increased by 25% to $304 million, driven by higher marketing, research and development and IT expenses, as well as the addition of Playdots. And, GAAP net income grew 78% to $219 million or $1.88 per share, as compared to $123 million, or $1.07 per share in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020. Turning to our fiscal 2021 results, total net bookings grew 19% to a new record of $3.55 billion. This exceeded our initial guidance by approximately $1 billion. We experienced exceptional engagement during the shelter-in-place conditions and delivered extraordinary results across many of our franchises, including NBA 2K, Grand Theft Auto, Red Dead Redemption, Borderlands, Social Point’s mobile games, and Sid Meier’s Civilization. Recurrent consumer spending grew 48%, establishing a new record, and accounted for 63% of total net bookings. This exceeded our prior outlook of 45% growth. Digitally-delivered net bookings grew 27% to a new record of approximately $3.1 billion, and accounted for 87% of the total. This also exceeded our prior outlook of 20% growth due to better-than expected recurrent consumer spending and digitally-delivered full game sales. During fiscal 2021, 64% of console game sales were delivered digitally, up from 55% last year. Non-GAAP adjusted unrestricted operating cash flow was $920 million, as compared to our previous outlook of over $750 million, and marked a record level for our company. During fiscal 2021, we spent $69 million on capital expenditures. At fiscal year end, our cash and short-term investments balance exceeded $2.7 billion. GAAP net revenue grew 9% to $3.37 billion, while cost of goods sold was flat at $1.5 billion. Operating expenses increased by 8% to $1.2 billion, driven primarily by the addition of Playdots, higher headcount, IT, research and development expense and charitable contributions, partially offset by lower marketing expenses. And, GAAP net income grew 46% to $589 million, or $5.09 per share. Our GAAP net income benefited from a $40.6 million gain on the sale of a long-term investment and a reversal of expense of $70 million related to forfeitures of previously granted stock awards. Today, we gave our initial outlook for fiscal 2022. We -- net bookings to range from $3.2 billion to $3.3 billion, the second-highest level of net bookings in our company’s history. This is partly driven by the exciting pipeline of new releases that we have planned for the year, with the majority of our titles coming in the second half of fiscal 2022. Additionally, we expect that engagement trends will be notably higher than they were pre-pandemic; however, as the return to normalcy continues, we expect a moderation of the trends that benefitted our industry over the past year. The largest contributors to net bookings are expected to be NBA 2K, Grand Theft Auto Online and Grand Theft Auto V, Red Dead Redemption 2 and Red Dead Online, as well as some of our new releases that are yet to be announced. We expect the Net Bookings breakdown from our labels to be roughly 55% 2K, 35% Rockstar Games, and 10% Private Division, Social Point and Playdots. And, we forecast our geographic net bookings split to be about 60% United States and 40% International. We expect recurrent consumer spending to decline by 15%, as a result of the challenging comparisons from last year. Recurrent consumer spending as a percentage of our business is expected to be approximately 59% versus 63% last year, due to more new releases this year. We project digitally-delivered net bookings to decline by about 8%. As a percentage of our business, digital is projected to represent 87%, which in line with last year. Our forecast assumes that 74% of console game sales will be delivered digitally, up from 64% last year. We expect to generate more than $400 million in non-GAAP adjusted unrestricted operating cash flow, and we plan to deploy approximately $100 million for capital expenditures. The increase in capital expenditures over the prior year is primarily due to continued spending on studio and office build-outs, and IT expense to support our investment in talent. We expect GAAP net revenue to range from $3.14 billion to $3.24 billion and cost of goods sold to range from $1.41 billion to $1.46 billion. Our total operating expenses are expected to range from $1.46 billion to $1.48 billion. At the midpoint, this represents a 22% increase over the prior year. As Karl mentioned, we have over 60 titles that we plan to deliver over the next three years and we are making significant investments in key areas, such as marketing, personnel and IT to bring our pipeline to market. Additionally, we will have a full year of expenses for Playdots. While these investments will impact our operating results this year, we are confident that our growing pipeline will enable us to scale our business further and improve our margins in the next few years. And we expect GAAP net income to range from $228 million to $257 million, or $1.95 to $2.20 per share. For management reporting purposes, we expect our tax rate to be 16% throughout fiscal 2022. Now moving on to our guidance for the fiscal first quarter. We project net bookings to range from $625 million to $675 million, as compared to $996 million in the first quarter last year, which was the first full quarter of the COVID-related shelter-in-place conditions when we experienced a strong initial surge in engagement. The largest contributor to net bookings are expected to be Grand Theft Auto Online and Grand Theft Auto V, NBA 2K21, Red Dead Redemption 2 and Red Dead Online and Borderlands 3. We project recurrent consumer spending to decline by 30%, as we will start to compare against the record levels of engagement that we experienced in the first quarter of fiscal 2021. We also expect digitally delivered net bookings to decline by approximately 30%. Our forecast assumes that 80% of console game sales will be delivered digitally, up from 71% in the same period last year. We expect GAAP net revenue to range from $730 million to $780 million and cost of goods sold to range from $277 million to $303 million. Operating expenses are expected to range from $316 million to $326 million. At the midpoint, this represents an 18% increase over last year, driven primarily by higher personnel and stock compensation expenses and the inclusion of Playdots. And GAAP net income is expected to range from $116 million to $129 million, or $1 to $1.10 per share. In closing, fiscal 2021 was a record year for our business and we believe that we can exceed these levels of financial results and establish new record levels of performance in the coming years. Our pipeline is robust and we couldn't be more excited about our new releases for fiscal 2022 and beyond. As we continue to enhance our business by investing in talent, including growing our development headcount and building our infrastructure, we are positioning our company for long-term growth and success, and we expect to deliver sustainable profitable growth for our shareholders. Thank you. I'll now turn the call back to Strauss.