Michael Cotoia
Analyst · Needham. Please go ahead
Hey, Kerry, it's Mike. I'll take that if you don't mind. In terms of the top four and the stiff headwinds I think we've got to start first with the – let’s look at IT Deal Alert first because that continues to exceed the expectations. It makes all progress across, really, all of our customer segments. So as an organization, we're going to continue to focus and lean with IT Deal Alert in longer-term data subscription contracts, which have resulted, as Greg mentioned, close to 40% growth year-over-year and over 45% growth in the first half. As it results – we reported that our core was down in Q2, which had less of a decline in Q1 and the majority of the decline is attributed to the global accounts. So let's drill that back a little bit. If you take a look at what we mean, A, by the global accounts, our 10 largest accounts that I would call legacy hardware and software vendors that operate primarily across every major country and across the globe. These accounts continued to get hit for a couple of reasons. Number one, IT environment continues to be a challenge, the lack of spending and investment in IT. I think we reported a couple of months ago when Gartner came back and revised their enterprise IT spend for 2017, they cut it in half from about 2.7% to 1.4%. So fairly anemic on that. The strong dollar continues to have a negative impact for these larger accounts outside the U.S. And these accounts are conducting pretty close to, if not more than, 50% of their business outside of the U.S. So the strong dollar impacts them. So those two areas have a direct impact on their earnings and their financials, as you've seen over the last several recent earnings calls from these legacy accounts. So when they get into a cost-cutting mode, one of the things they will cut is their core advertising budgets. And that will impact us on the core. Lastly, as you mentioned, we talked about four of those major transactions. Last year, we were talking about five, one graduated out of that. We've been talking about four. And if you look at the global accounts, we're really about to graduate out of another one of those. So it really leaves us with that last, I'll call it, mega-transaction that's been out in the market for a while and they're still working through the transition. If you take a look at the core and the decline in global, approximately, or roughly one third of the global decline in core is a result of that last major transaction. So do we expect it to turn? Yes. We've been thinking and hoping that it would turn in the back half, as we've been saying throughout the year of 2017. They ultimately going to have to get their positioning done and their messaging laid out. So we hope to see that in the second half of the year, but we would probably – if not, we'll definitely see that in 2018. As part of the ramp in the second half, a lot of that really focuses on and depends on the continued focus and execution on our long-term contracts that we're landing each day, each week, each month that will have a direct impact on Q4. So with that being said, a couple other things I'd like to highlight on this. Our second half revenue will be higher than our first half revenue that we'll project. Our Q3 revenue will be higher than last year's Q3 revenue. And last year's Q3 revenue had events tied into it. Our total online revenue in Q3 this year should be up double-digit versus last year. IT Deal Alert, we feel will grow in excess of 40%. And when you combine these and when we start graduating from this last transaction, it gives us the opportunity to hit some of that back half revenue growth ramps that we've projected.