Patrick Pouyanne
Chief Executive Officer
Two general question, complex one. Oil demand, the oil demand in '23 is strong, an increase of almost 2 million barrels per day, mainly coming from China. By the way, more than 2/3, 70% more from petrochemicals on 1 side and from as well kerosene, jet fuel, the payment airline activity is back almost normal, not fully. So you still have, in fact, in '24, some demand from the airlines in the world to come back. So we are not yet fully to be a level quick of it on the jet fuel demand. So I don't see what it would stop, to be honest, because it's -- there is a call for move in this planet. And secondly, I think the IEA has announced an additional 1 million-barrel of oil per day increase for next year. So I take this point. I think our traders agree with it. So it's not 2, but it's one. So continuing to see demand increase. And again, by the way, what struck me despite the part that some have on the Chinese economy, you said this year, we have plus 2 and again, 70% of it is coming from China. So when China will come back, I read yesterday that the Chinese government is thinking to make an incentive package -- macroeconomic incentive package raising more debt in order to give imports to their economy. By the way we complain about the growth in China, which is 5%, and it's not 1% or 2%. So I think I'm still a believer that Chinese growth will drive again, growth. And in fact, when you look to -- by the way, on oil demand, I will give you a clue. It's not very complex. You take the last 20 years, you look to the increase of the population of the world, plus 1.2%. You look to the increase of the oil demand until 2019 because you have a -- it was exactly plus 1.2%. In fact, the oil demand is not related to GDP, is related to the growing population. Because it is a fundamental factor, and it's why, by the way, transition will be complex, a growing population because this 1.2% or 1% is still announced for the next 20 years. So 1% on the planet, it requires more energy, better way of increasing their life standard, and that's more energy. So that's -- so it's very aligned. You can see that. We will make a presentation soon on our TotalEnergies' outlook on November 13, and we will explain that again. So that's the demand. Refining margins. Refining margin is different. It depends on the market, supply and demand. We've seen them going to the roof going 1 or 2 months. During summer time, everything was under constraint. I think you still have, honestly, in this downstream business, an impact on the ban of Russian products because all that has put ocean crude oil on 1 side. So the quality of the crude oil is different in the refining system, and also on the products. You have this organized, I would say, as a transportation. Transportational costs are more expensive. And so today, what we face is that you see -- the gasoline demand. The gasoline spread is down, quite low. Because, again, the gasoline demand in Europe is, I think, impacted by the [indiscernible]. You have an elasticity of the demand to the price. So when in the third quarter, you've seen $90 per barrel, $95 per barrel plus a strong margin of refining. The customers, when price is high, they save energy. They reduce their consumption. So this is what we have observed. And so today, the gasoline demand is happening. So the spread crack is softening. But the diesel crack is still high, very high, $30. Because there, on this side, you have an impact of the fact that we have less heavy crude. So it's more expensive to produce diesel. And so you had some warning, which I think are exaggerated from [indiscernible] we might have a lack of diesel, will not have a lack of diesel for sure. You know why? Just because we find our smart people. When you have a strong crack on diesel and a low crack on gasoline, you will adapt your refinery and you make more diesel and less gasoline. So it's quite easy business. And we have flexibility. So today, our machines are running to make diesel. And so no fear, but a good benefit. So Yes, it has suffered, but I would say I would expect a margin around $70, $80 per tonne for the next month. It's a good bet. I would be surprised to see them coming back very low because, again, you have some inefficiencies in the system because of the Russian ban, not only on oil, but also on products, [indiscernible] some, I would say, increased costs. On the wind, yes, wind, European Commission. And it's more the European wind manufacturing industry, which is complaining, if I'm reading carefully rather than the European wind development industry. The developers are still willing to develop with lowest cost because that's a good question to the commission, I think. Like on solar, do they want to protect the consumers by continuing to have access to the lowest possible cost of renewables or do we want to protect the manufacturing industries? That's a question. Until now, in the last 10 years, it was always EU has favored the consumers, in fact. And I've seen a call from the solar developers calling for not protecting them. So we'll see, again, for us, honestly, at the end of the day, in the U.S., when we are asked by the IRA to use the U.S. goods, we are using U.S. goods. You know in the offshore wind project in New York, we have made a deal with GE. We secured the price and the cost, by the way, of the turbines with GE, which will build a new manufacturing plant in New York, creating local jobs. All that has a cost, but it has been integrated in the CFD, which has been accepted and agreed negotiated. So I think -- so up to -- we will adapt ourselves, we are flexible. That's why, by the way, we should not anticipate too early this type of CFDs in insurance. Because if you take the insurance, it's too early, when as the enrollment is moving, you could be a trap in something which become less profitable. So it's -- because wind -- offshore wind is taking more time. Having said that, at the end of the day, I can confirm to you, but I see more and more gold wind Chinese wind farms being built in Europe and in the world.