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TotalEnergies SE (TTE)

Q1 2018 Earnings Call· Thu, Apr 26, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to Total's First Quarter 2018 Results Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Patrick Pouyanné, CEO. Please go ahead. Patrick Pouyanné - Total SA: Thank you, and good morning or good afternoon, everybody, wherever you are. I am with Patrick de la Chevardière, our CFO. I'm very pleased to join the call today together with him. We have been quite busy recently since we met most of you last February and so we thought it was worth a short update by the CEO himself. But as it is a tradition, Patrick will first review the first quarter results and then I will comment on the recent strategic activity and then we'll go to the Q& A. Before to leave the floor to Patrick, just and it's important because I would like to make a comment on the shareholder returns policy that we have presented in February. But we have decided, of course, to not only to propose but to implement and we have done what we said, which means that first, when we proposed this policy, we announced that we'd increase the dividend by 10% over the next three years and yesterday's Board of Directors consistently has raised – decided to raise the first 2018 interim dividend to €0.64 per share, an increase of 3.2% exactly on the path to the 10% over three years. So it's an implementation of this first comment (01:37). The second point is that we announced as well that we'll buy back all the scrip shares that we have been – which have been issued in order to avoid any dilution. So we've done it between February and April. We bought back 7 million shares, which we've issued in…

Operator

Operator

Our first question comes from Jon Rigby of UBS.

Jon Rigby - UBS Ltd.

Analyst · UBS

Thank you. Yes, two questions. Patrick, thank you for running through the strategic initiatives for the first quarter. They seem to have come very thick and fast, it's difficult to keep up with them all. But just to reference your last point about the sort of $2 billion or so of net investment and the more attractive disposal market potentially for E&P, does that mean that we should expect more activity on the sell side across the balance of this year, or when you think about that figure, do you expect it to be sort of an average over the course of a few years in terms of your disposals? The second question I guess is for P2 is, this working capital build has been a – has emerged as a bit of a feature in the last few first quarters. I just wanted to come back to it and ask, is it a function of what you're doing in the fourth quarter, or a function of something unusual in the first quarter? And what of each of those is more representative of the working capital that you need to run the business all things equal? Thanks. Patrick Pouyanné - Total SA: Okay, I'll take the first question. Again, the financial framework we gave you, $15 billion, $17 billion of investments organic plus net acquisition. So $2 billion, take it as it is – it's for the next three years, take it as an average of three years, but clearly, yes, we will be active on the sell side. I mean, we have some assets. It's not like we've done in the previous three years, a $10 billion program. It's done step by step but we have some assets which are being marketed today without too much noise neither rumors.…

Jon Rigby - UBS Ltd.

Analyst · UBS

Can I just follow up on your first answer on the portfolio? Is it – on the disposal side, is what's evident from some of the acquisitions – they're not just acquisitions of assets, you're in the process of sort of reshaping the portfolio, but will you sort of apply the same logic to the sell side as well is that it's not just a disposal of ready assets, you're trying to reshape the portfolio through disposals as well? Patrick Pouyanné - Total SA: The assets that we want to dispose are high-cost asset, it's obvious. I mean, like we've done with Martin Linge I think. So, yes, of course, we are trying to – we will be consistent on the sales towards regarding the strategy and continuing to focus at the end of the day on what is core in the company. And we will select these assets according, so either high breakeven assets or out of the core of the business of the company.

Jon Rigby - UBS Ltd.

Analyst · UBS

Okay. Thanks very much, guys.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs.

Michele Della Vigna - Goldman Sachs International

Analyst · Goldman Sachs

Thank you for taking my question. Patrick, I wanted to ask two questions if possible. The first one is relating to the deals that you have very thoroughly run through. It feels like they mainly come from two areas, either financially distressed companies or national oil companies where we see a much more collaborative environment in the last couple of years. I was wondering if you think there is more to come in the area, in particular in terms of collaboration with national oil companies, if that could become, in the future, a bigger area of reserve replacement for you. The second, still staying with acquisitions, when you compare the financial metrics of a deal like, for instance, Maersk on one side which is clearly immediately accretive to cash flow and still with assets with long longevity, and on the other side, a deal like Direct Energie which is certainly strategically very important, it adds longevity and high quality assets but which is probably dilutive for quite a long time on valuation. How do you think about doing one deal or the other one and how do you compare the key financial metrics in order to choose where to employ your incremental capital? Thank you. Patrick Pouyanné - Total SA: Okay, first the first one. You have a perfect analysis of what we've done. Yes, it's true. The business model of major company like Total because we have a stronger balance sheet, we've got somewhere take benefit of that in order to have access to some assets from companies which were in not so good situation, so either it was some national companies like Petrobras, I would say, or some smaller companies like is the deal with Tullow in Uganda, with Cobalt in the U.S. And basically, there's also deals…

Michele Della Vigna - Goldman Sachs International

Analyst · Goldman Sachs

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Oswald Clint from Bernstein.

Oswald Clint - Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd.

Analyst · Bernstein

Thank you very much. I'd like to ask firstly about the production, the upstream volumes kind of hitting that 15-year high. You're looking to grow at 6% this year. I see this morning you're indicating potentially chance to do higher than that. I wonder if you'd venture what that higher number might be. But fundamentally, you talk about it being in the startups coming in better plus integration. So my question is really is this a Maersk phenomena or is it really successful ahead of schedule startups off your very large list of projects? I think you have about 14 or so over 2017, 2018 and if so, maybe half of those have started up already. Does that mean the next half of those through this year into next year should come in ahead of schedule as well? That's my first question. Secondly, just on this topic of kind of some of the deals you've done, I'm specifically interested in Libya and those barrels, the 50,000 barrels coming out of Libya. Perhaps, just remind us of the profitability of those barrels. I do remember them being quite highly taxed in past times, perhaps that's changed. Thank you. Patrick Pouyanné - Total SA: First question, I think on the profile, growth profile, we announced more than the 6% this morning because the 5% performance of first quarter is ahead of what we were thinking. So yes, more than 6%, I read some comments that we are too conservative. As you said, we have many startup coming in front of us, Ichthys, Kaombo, Egina, Tempa Rossa in the coming months. Sometimes, it can derive by one month or two. It could be read by one month or two. January is more one month late rather than one month (46:45). But all that…

Oswald Clint - Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd.

Analyst · Bernstein

Super. Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Theepan Jothilingam from Exane BNP.

Theepan Jothilingam - Exane Ltd.

Analyst · Exane BNP

Yeah, hi, good afternoon, gentlemen. A couple of questions, please. Firstly, on the synergies that you've mentioned about Maersk Oil and Direct Energie, could you just talk about the timelines on how quickly the synergies can be realized for both transactions? The second question, Patrick, just comes back to GRP strategy and I think you mentioned trying to grow sort of installed capacity on the gas-fired power plants of around 10 gigawatts. So I was just hoping to understand, so the timelines and, again, will that be really done inorganically? And then finally, you mentioned, Ichthys and Kaombo. They are highly cash generative, so I just want to understand where we are in terms of commissioning or delivery of first oil. Thank you. First oil and first LNG. Patrick Pouyanné - Total SA: For the synergies of Maersk Oil, I'm taking the papers. Sorry, I don't know what by heart. I know what the cost synergy should be fully on board by three years to capture them. I'm just taking – I'm trying to find. Yes, it is there. I think this year obviously is not so – you can say that you will have 60%, 70% to further rate by 2019 in our cash flows and 100% by 2020. This year, you have a small share, but not major share. I don't have the figure. This is the first one. On Direct Energie, we need to close the deal, but it will be immediate, in fact, because the decision to keep only one brand will be done before the closing part of the synergy. The fact that we will decide to have only one IT platform will take a little more to implement, one year, but I think this type of synergy, the first €5 million I mentioned to…

Theepan Jothilingam - Exane Ltd.

Analyst · Exane BNP

Noted. Thank you, Patrick.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Lydia Rainforth from Barclays Bank.

Lydia Rainforth - Barclays Capital Securities Ltd.

Analyst · Barclays Bank

Thank you and good afternoon. Just one question. Are you seeing any impact in terms of the cost base or any upward pressure there at the moment? And in particular, if you could just talk about the recent Google Cloud and JV in terms of the artificial intelligence item, what you're looking to achieve there? Thank you. Patrick Pouyanné - Total SA: I like your question on artificial intelligence with Google. The idea there is clearly to try to engage not only to make proof of concept but to engage really some development, so it's about geoscience. A team of 15 people of engineers of Total will move from Peru (54:57) to California, within the Google offices and will develop some programs during two, three years. We have a program to see or we could apply artificial intelligence to enhance the efficiency of our geoscience processes. I don't want to disclose everything there because there are some areas of, I would say, core competencies. But it's a commitment and I think it just started. We shifted from few discussions and concept to putting in place a team and we have some good expectations and I'm quite pleased because of the mobile side, they also put a team of more or less equivalent, I think 20, 30 people which will come together with our teams together and which should bring the artificial intelligence competency. That's important. Second point cost base impact deflation, today, I would say we don't see any inflation, I would say. Deflation normal but it's stabilized more or less. The costs have deflated by – it depends on the segment, 30% to 50% sometimes and we continue to benefit from this low-cost base today. I would say in conventional oil and gas, we still have quite not too many projects. And in the rig market is still quiet, in fact. And so when you make tenders, we have good news today compared to our cost base. We are not as you know very involved in the unconventional in the U.S. even if we are in the Barnett Shale producing 600 million (56:15) per day there. I would say there in the Barnett Shale, we have seen some inflation in particular in some frac jobs and there is a lot of activity in the U.S., more activity in the world. So maybe it's one advantage of our portfolio, but we didn't see today any – we are still, I would say, it's a low cost base for the CapEx and OpEx. And this is – by the way, you probably notice but our OpEx this quarter at $5.4 per barrel so still maintaining them. But you also remember that we continue to implement the cost saving program for the company despite $70 per barrel. It's a little more complex to convince our colleagues but we take care. We take care.

Lydia Rainforth - Barclays Capital Securities Ltd.

Analyst · Barclays Bank

Perfect. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Christyan Malek from JPMorgan.

Christyan F. Malek - JPMorgan Securities Plc

Analyst · JPMorgan

Hi. Good afternoon gentlemen. Thank you for taking my questions. Just two if I may. First about the acquisitions, when do you think enough is enough and how should we think about an upper end of CapEx or resource for new oil? You mentioned $16 billion plus over the next few years. Should we think about downtrends potentially moving higher every time or is it really a $17 billion cap to 2020? Secondly, you've done a fantastic job high grading fuels, increasing productivity both organically and inorganically. Could you comment on some of the things you're doing at the operational level that surprise to be upside of production? And on the broader, level Patrick, do you think the industry has more to do to lower project breakevens further outside of the U.S. through technology, Big Data and AI? I can see that you're leading the way on that. So would love to hear your thoughts. Patrick Pouyanné - Total SA: Thank you, Christyan, for your question. So I reiterate my strong commitment as $15 billion, $17 billion for 2018-2020 for the three years that we announced February. Each carry a commitment so you can take it as a guideline. There is no wrong message in anything I told you. My comment on $16 billion plus were just for 2018. I could have rate you 2018, $15 million, $17 million but you make some math and again, we have been active, more active than anticipated, but it's no regret at all, it's because we had opportunities, so we seize them. So keeping the $15 billion, $17 billion for 2019, 2020 are really the right guidelines for what we want to invest. And we have the capacity, again, to make organic investments and inorganic investments which we think will fit with our…

Christyan F. Malek - JPMorgan Securities Plc

Analyst · JPMorgan

And is it fair to say that for the decline rates of 2% to 3%, would it be an exaggeration to say that's sustainable over the medium-term? If you keep surprising yourself on technology and efficiencies and so on, that effectively you can run to stand still (01:02:52) at around 2% to 3%. Is that a fair statement? Patrick Pouyanné - Total SA: Yes. You can – it's a fair statement. I think you understand very well our industry and our portfolio, the Total portfolio.

Christyan F. Malek - JPMorgan Securities Plc

Analyst · JPMorgan

Brilliant. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Irene Himona from Société Générale. Irene Himona - Société Générale SA (UK): Thank you. Good afternoon, gentlemen. I had firstly two sort of numerical questions on the quarter and then one on Direct Energie. So firstly, your intangibles on the balance sheet, obviously with all the acquisitions you've done, the intangibles have gone up $10 billion, or 70% versus year end. At year end, the goodwill was about 10% of that. Can you say whether the sort of goodwill element is similar or if it has increased? Secondly, corporate and other, since about 2015, 2016, I think you have had a tax credit in that division every quarter and it used to relate to, I think, French downstream taxes. I wonder if you can remind us what is in there in that tax credit and whether we should expect it to continue going forwards? And my third question on Direct Energie, Patrick, you mentioned that with the 6 million or 7 million customers you've got currently and ongoing growth, you will eventually increase the market share towards 15%, and your comment was that 15% is interesting. I wonder if 15% is interesting from a P&L perspective. In other words, is that the level at which you start making profit basically, or whether it relates to something on the power generation side and your ability to perhaps be, I don't know, more flexible there? Thank you. Patrick de la Chevardière - Total SA: Irene, just answering your question about goodwill, this is very simple. Maersk acquisition added $2.5 billion of goodwill. Then you have a question on French tax credit in our balance sheet. We haven't booked all of our tax credit in our balance sheet. So it's just an assumption of the use of our…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Blake Fernandez from Scotia Howard Weil.

Blake Fernandez - Scotia Howard Weil

Analyst · Scotia Howard Weil

Thanks. Good afternoon. I realize we're late in the hour, so just two points of clarity here if I could on production. For one, going back to Libya, if I'm not mistaken, I think with the acquisition you should be around 80,000 barrels a day, which is about 3% of your total production. Obviously, the country has been fairly erratic with regard to volumes. Is that part of your 6% plus guidance for the year? And then the second question is really on the overall kind of longer-term production target. You've expressed potentially increased appetite to sell upstream assets. I'm just wondering, would that potentially put at risk that longer-term number or were you already contemplating some level of divestitures when you kind of put that number out there in the first place? Thank you. Patrick Pouyanné - Total SA: First question, yes, it's taken into account the 6% plus and we know it's erratic but that's why by the way some people think we are conservative, maybe we are not so well, but it's taken into account and it's from 6% to 6% plus because part of it is coming from Brazil clearly, so we have to recognize it and to put into a figure. Having said that, we're right – maybe it's erratic, but I see more upside than downside. It's a country today we produce less than 1 million barrel of oil per day with the potential of 2 million barrel per day. So when you think to this concession of Waha, the potential of increase of production is huge, can double the production there. So yes, it's erratic today, but it's erratic in the low tide, I would say. There is a more an upside potential whether I would say downside there. Then the second question, clearly, I already answered that several times. When we told you 5%, average 2017, 2022, it was taking into account the fact that we want to divest some upstream assets we never added. We did not put a figure in terms of billion dollars, but it's part of what we said net acquisitions and so – and we have some margins and you cannot tell us that we are sometimes too conservative on our production figure and that sometimes we are too optimistic. We are dealing with you and what we like to do, P1, P2 and P1, I would say together, we like to deliver what we say. And so you can't take that as a commitment and I have – so it's a matter of translating in fact all the resource we have accumulated into some projects. So now the next challenge to sanction the projects and to execute the project. And then if we do that, we deliver the 5% but we have in our portfolio the resource which are necessary to do that. And we have also enough to sell what we want to sell.

Blake Fernandez - Scotia Howard Weil

Analyst · Scotia Howard Weil

Thank you very much. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Thomas Adolff from Credit Suisse. Thomas Adolff - Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Ltd.: Thank you. I've got three questions as well. Firstly, on Venezuela. I'm assuming you still have some expats in the country and if so, what are the plans there following some worrying news at one of your competitors earlier this week and if you take them out, what does it mean to your operations? Secondly, on refining, I know the focus in Downstream is on pet chem. But I wondered whether you would consider adding more light crude processing capacity at Port Arthur in the U.S.? And finally, just a question on concentration versus diversity of your portfolio. Obviously, if you're too concentrated, you are exposed like Repsol in Argentina. You're too diversified, you create complex organizational structures. And I'm aware when it comes to country risk, definitions can vary from cash flow to value to capital employed. But if stick to cash flow and take your top 10 countries, how much do these represent in terms of percentage of last year's cash flow? And generally speaking, as we consider the portfolio composition, what is the sweet spot or have we hit the sweet spot in terms of risk and value creation for Total? Thank you. Patrick Pouyanné - Total SA: Venezuela, the news are not so good. Let's be clear. First priority for me is, of course, to take care of our people. So we have a lot of our expatriates probably are out and we are limiting the number of people. We also take care, by the way, of our Venezuelan employees very carefully because it's part of the value of the company and there is a limit to what can be done. One of the difficulty and I will…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Biraj Borkhataria from Royal Bank of Canada.

Biraj Borkhataria - RBC Europe Ltd.

Analyst · Royal Bank of Canada

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Just one question left. There's obviously quite a lot going on in the portfolio inorganically but a few months ago, you laid out a fairly long list of projects in the upstream that you could sanction. So I was wondering if you could just give us an update on some of the upcoming FIDs that we should expect and whether given all the deals you have done, you might slow some of these down in order to digest some of the new assets. Thanks. Patrick Pouyanné - Total SA: I think if we take the list, if I try to go through, Zinia 2 in Angola should come in within weeks. We have finalized with the Angolan government in December in the past fiscal terms. We wait for the decree but it's coming. Tenders have been done over there so coming. Uganda is obviously a very big project. It was good news and since we met in February, because now all the partners are aligned. There was a small dispute between CNOOC and the two partners to split the operatorship. It has been done in a smooth way. Total will operate all the north part of (01:15:44) CNOOC in the south. It's crossing one license. All that is online now and so now we are online, we close the deal and we are all intent, I spend some time in Beijing three weeks ago to try to reach – to give a target now with the FID end of this year, beginning of next year and it's moving forward. So I'm optimistic and I hope the market will give us the right price we're expecting. But it's – on the pipeline it seems to be on the good way. So Uganda, Ikike and Nigeria…

Biraj Borkhataria - RBC Europe Ltd.

Analyst · Royal Bank of Canada

Thank you, Patrick. It's very thorough.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Christopher Kuplent from Bank of America.

Christopher Kuplent - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America

Thank you. Can I just be very brief? One last question, Patrick, you gave us a 2018 number for $16 billion plus, but actually what I'd like to know is where do think 2018 will end up on your organic front where you've given us $13 billion to $15 billion range? I'm guessing not at the upper end. Patrick Pouyanné - Total SA: I think at the lower end.

Christopher Kuplent - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America

Okay. That's great. That's already... Patrick Pouyanné - Total SA: (01:18:22) if it's this year. But again, takes all that as an average and again for – you be clear, at the end of the day, for the company in terms of financial framework, so your question is, how much do we spend in CapEx? We can make a split – so it's maybe, but maybe I'm wrong by giving you such a precise figure, keep the average, keep the range, I'd like to prefer it because again, just before you, before I answered that we are looking the team with short-term CapEx we could activate, so this could have an influence and we are reviewing that this year between teams to see if we could activate so it's not – we manage the company. I prefer to give some range, but prefer figures but it will maybe give a clue to all of you for your model and positive clue I hope so.

Christopher Kuplent - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America

We're always keen clues. So thank you. Patrick Pouyanné - Total SA: Thank you, Chris.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Jean-Luc Romain with CM-CIC Securities.

Jean-Luc Romain - CM-CIC Market Solutions SA

Analyst · CM-CIC Securities

Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. My question relates to Direct Energie. Should I infer from your prepared comments that the shareholders at Direct Energie contacted about their interest to sell? Second question is the cost of acquisition – what is the cost of regulation per client at Total Spring so far? Patrick Pouyanné - Total SA: For the first question, I cannot give you all the secrets of the deal but probably because you are French, thanks to your accent, you probably know that the shareholder – the main shareholder of Direct Energie and myself we have been – we are quite close together, we have been in our histories, so we have permanent interactions, in fact, both of us. So I will not tell you who call who, but again, when the price of the share were declining, there was some incentive for him to call me. But I was also looking to that, both of us. Your second question was about the cost of access for Total Spring, I don't have the answer, sorry for that. But I suggest that one of my colleague will call you after the call because I don't have – I don't want to – I know I have one (01:20:42) already but I don't want to give you a wrong indication and we will call you after the call.

Jean-Luc Romain - CM-CIC Market Solutions SA

Analyst · CM-CIC Securities

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions in the queue. I'd like to turn the conference back to our speakers for additional or closing remarks. Patrick Pouyanné - Total SA: Thank you. I would like to all of you thank you for this call. We were a little earlier than anticipated because I think you have another call with one of my colleagues just right now. So thank you for all your questions you asked us. I think it will not become a tradition that the CEO will participant in the quarterly call. It has been – we done it today because we were active which is a message for the people who think we will – we continue to be so active as the case. And so, but I think again the company's moving in the right direction and what we observed is the share price begins to reflect in a better way all the efforts, which have been done by all the teams of Total for the coming years. And so I hope it will continue and you can count on one side of our financial discipline, on the other side of the ambition of the management to continue to develop the company. Thank you.