Samuel Andrew Fischer
Analyst · Jefferies
Good morning, and thank you for joining Treasury Wine Estates' 2026 Full Year Results Briefing. Joining me on the call today is Justin Pipito, our Interim Chief Financial Officer. As Justin and I and other members of our team shared with you in some detail at our recent Investor Day, in F '26, we took decisive action to ensure the health of our brands and channels and commenced our comprehensive Ascent transformation program focused on reshaping TWE for future success. While this decisive action has impacted financial performance in the short term, I am confident we'll emerge a more focused and financially strong company capable of sustained attractive returns. And you can see the story of these actions reflected throughout today's announcement, including our key messages, which I'll turn to now. F '26 EBITS of $492 million was ahead of our guidance, driven by Penfolds performance in the fourth quarter. Statutory NPAT was a loss of $1.1 million, driven by the noncash impairment of U.S. assets. This includes the additional $558 million impairment relating to U.S. supply chain rebalancing initiatives that we announced on Monday, which has been recognized in the second half. And we are reiterating our guidance for F '27 EBITS, which are expected to be at least equivalent to F '26. Importantly, the underlying performance of our key brands remains strong with depletions growth continuing for Penfolds, led by China and our Asia markets. And in the U.S., depletions returned to growth nationally for the year despite the impact of California distributor transition in the first half. We progressed our previously announced initiatives to ensure brand and channel health, including action to significantly reduce parallel imports into China. We also progressed with the planned reduction of customer inventory, and we're on track to complete this effort in both China and the U.S. within the 2-year time frame that I communicated last December. Retaining the strength of our capital structure remains a key priority. We reported leverage at 2.8x, and we expect this to be the peak ahead of our return to our target of below 2x by the end of F '28. We have also made substantial progress with Ascent. As we shared at our Investor Day in June, we have a clear vision, and we're taking deliberate actions to focus where we will win, transform our operating model and shape a future-fit supply chain to make it happen. We are currently finalizing our organizational structure ahead of our transition to a regional operating model on the 1st of October. And we are on track to realize our cost savings of $100 million per annum in full by F '29, with approximately $40 million to be realized in F '27. Our global supply chain transformation has commenced and processes to divest a number of nonpriority brands and assets are underway with a pleasing response to date. As announced in June, we are also undertaking a strategic and operational review of our U.S. business. This process is also underway with advisers appointed to review all available options. The decision to reduce U.S. vintage makes from 2026 reflects the type of clear and decisive actions we will be taking to ensure that we improve shareholder returns from the Americas. So that's a high-level summary of the result and our transformation agenda. While I am acutely aware that there is still a lot of work to do, I am pleased with the progress we've made since I joined the business last October and both transformational -- transformation and operational momentum has gathered pace throughout the year. Turning now in more detail to our financial performance, which was impacted by a number of factors, including the moderation of category trends, our deliberate initiatives to protect brand and channel health and the cycling of elevated shipments in the prior period. NSR per case fell 3%, reflecting portfolio mix and in particular, the impact of our actions to reduce parallel activity and inventory in China. EBITS margin decreased to 19%, driven by the decline in NSR and accompanied by higher costs of doing business. ROCE declined to 7.9%, driven by a decline in EBIT. Pre material items, net profit after tax was $275 million and EPS was $0.34 per share. And our dividend program remains suspended. This is a temporary yet important measure as we reprioritize our focus on returning leverage to target. Turning now to divisional performance, where pleasingly, momentum has improved in the second half. Penfolds delivered EBITS of $404 million, supported by continued depletions growth in China, in Asia ex China and Australia. However, earnings were moderated by the deliberate reductions we've made in inventory cover and restrictions of shipments contributing to parallel import activity into China. It is terrific to see the continued progress Penfolds is making across its key markets with first-class brand building and execution continuing to translate into increased consumer awareness and demand for the Penfolds brand. More on this shortly, but I am extremely pleased with how the team is showing up in market to consistently drive this growth. Treasury Americas delivered EBITS of $90 million. The result reflected softer market conditions, disruption arising from the Californian distribution transition in the first half and cycling the excess of shipments to depletions in the prior period. Despite these challenges, we were pleased to see depletions returning to growth in California in the second half, which supported the return to depletions growth nationally. And underlying brand for our key brands in the U.S. remains strong and ahead of category. Having finalized the transition of distribution away from RNDC in several markets, we now turn our attention to reducing customer inventory levels through F '27, targeting completion in the first half of F '28. Treasury Collective delivered EBITS of $68 million, which was in line with expectations in Australia and EMEA with positive momentum behind focus brands and continuing declines in the commercial portfolio. In the U.S., performance was again impacted by declines in the premium portfolio, led by 19 Crimes. Turning now in more detail to depletions, which are the clearest view of underlying consumer demand across our portfolio and markets. Importantly, we saw improved momentum for Penfolds and Treasury Americas in the second half. Penfolds continues to achieve strong depletions in China. This is a result of the strength of our brand and encouraging trends in consumer demand, performance in the fourth quarter relative to prior year and the benefit of transitioning volumes previously parallel imported into our authorized distribution channels, which contributed approximately half of the depletions growth. Outside of China, depletions remained strong in several markets, including Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. Penfolds is well known among Chinese communities in these countries, and the wine category continues to develop. So we believe there's a substantial long-term growth opportunities for the Penfolds brand in these markets. In Australia, strong execution through Chinese New Year and other key activations drove momentum in independent retail channels. Within Treasury Americas, total U.S. depletions were positive, driven by growth from DAOU, Frank Family Vineyards and Stags' Leap. While California was impacted by the distribution transition during the first half, the business returned to growth in the second half with strong momentum demonstrating improving execution. The depletions growth was driven by ongoing distribution gains with Frank Family Vineyards, in particular, expanding its reach in the on-premise. In Treasury Collective, Squealing Pig, Pepperjack and Wynns led the Australian depletions performance, supported by strong execution with key partners and innovation. In the U.K., pricing actions taken to offset higher alcohol duties impacted volumes, while in the U.S., 19 Crimes continued its above-category declines. Declines in the commercial portfolio were also driven by the U.K. Overall, the key takeaway is that depletion trends are strengthening across many of our priority brands and markets, giving us confidence in our core strategy and the underlying health of the business. And this makes us well positioned to return to NSR growth from F '28 once we have completed inventory rebalancing. Penfolds continues to strengthen its position as one of the world's most recognized luxury wine brands. Over the course of the year, we increased investment behind activations designed to enhance brand awareness, luxury credentials and deepen consumer engagement. These initiatives continue to drive demand power growth across our key markets. Our Global Grange campaign is a great example. This has created a halo for the brand as a whole, reinforcing Penfolds' luxury positioning with consumers around the world. At the same time, market-specific activations such as From Penfolds to the World in Bangkok demonstrates how we are creating culturally relevant experiences that bring the brand to life. And I really want to get across that these initiatives are not simply marketing investments. They not only underpin the sustained strong depletions growth Penfolds is delivering, but they are also building long-term brand equity. As outlined at Investor Day, our portfolio is focused on 3 pillars, and these represent the most attractive market segments where we have conviction in our right to win. During the year, we continued to strengthen our leadership in our first pillar of luxury red wine. And while Penfolds remains central to that ambition, DAOU delivered another year of strong category depletions growth in the U.S. Second, with an elevated focus, we saw encouraging growth in luxury white wine with depletions accelerating in the Penfolds white wine portfolio led by Yattarna, Bin 51 and Bin 311. And this gives us confidence that there will be a very promising future for Penfolds in luxury white wine. And third, we're building an excellent position in modern refreshment. Matua is a clear example of this strategy in action, delivering yet another year of growth in the U.S., both in the core range and the continued success of Matua Lighter. So you can already see some of the benefits of us focusing our attention behind our best opportunities, and there will be more to come as we accelerate our investment behind our power brands and regional heroes in the future. During the year, we also made significant progress against our previously announced brand and channel health initiatives. In China, customer inventory cover reduced by approximately 200,000 cases, approximately halfway towards our previously communicated target with the rebalancing expected to be completed in F '27. Strong depletions in China through the fourth quarter allowed us to finish ahead of expectations on this front, which is very pleasing. We also continued our efforts to minimize parallel import activity in China. Availability of unauthorized product reduced materially during the second half with recapture into authorized channels on track and reflected in the China depletions, as I mentioned earlier. While they have significantly reduced, we have identified some further sources of unauthorized shipments in recent months and taken corrective action. As I have said previously, managing this will require continued vigilance to ensure it remains under tight control, and we are absolutely committed to staying on top of it. Importantly, our action to date has helped stabilize online pricing, and we're seeing pleasing signs of pricing improvement for key Bins in July. In the U.S., customer inventory cover remained stable. We repurchased inventory from RNDC in California and have sold approximately 40% of that back into the market at 0 margin. The RNDC transition is now largely complete with our residual exposure now immaterial at less than 3% of America's NSR and our new distribution partners are performing to expectations in the transitioned markets. We now shift our attention to completing the planned 300,000 case inventory reduction ex California progressively over the next 18 months. We are continuing to make meaningful progress against our 4 Ascent priority areas, focused on the bright future we are seeing for TWE as a more focused, market-centered, simpler and financially strong wine company. I'm really pleased with the progress we are making, and I've already touched on a number of these key highlights in today's presentation. We look forward to continuing to provide our investors with regular updates as we progress this journey. I will now hand over to Justin, who will cover the financial results in more detail.