Joshua Easterly
Management
Mickey, you hit it head on, which is I think if people read our letter, what we've said is there is no free ride, broad-based free ride. We think our portfolio behaves differently on rising rates. Rising rates will lead to a default cycle, especially if you believe we're in some stagflationary environment where there's inflation, but very low growth. And if you look at credit spreads as a proxy, credit spreads are telling you that the return needed to extend credit should be higher given perspective defaults and losses. So I think -- I don't have a crystal ball on what that number is. But there's a whole bunch of ways to do the math. And if you think that historically, the average single B has had a net spread post losses of 200 and 250 basis points, you can look at the prior losses going forward given spreads. There's a whole bunch of ways to do the math. But directionally, I think most definitely defaults and losses are going to increase and investors in the space, in the BDC space can only net investment income less realized losses. So I think that's really important. The second thing is our portfolio is really defensive. Top of the capital structure, I think 80% was in the prepared remarks of basically business, service and software, whether it's recurring revenue and variable cost structure, and really no inputs that would lead to inflation. And so I think we feel really good and quite frankly, pricing power. And so I think we feel really good about where our portfolio is headed. In addition to all those things and attributes, why those -- why they have those attributes like pricing power is because they're solving problems for -- our portfolio of companies are solving problems for their customers that are real and valuable to them. If you look at our portfolio, I think year-over-year portfolio growth was about 31%. Quarter-over-quarter was about 7.2%, so 28% annualized. So you're surely -- you're still strong portfolio growth, still revenue growth in our portfolio of companies, in our core portfolio of companies, although it is clearly decelerating, but our portfolio of companies have much more levers on the cost side given their variable cost nature. So I feel pretty good about our portfolio. I feel pretty good about the forward earnings power of our business given the inflection on rising rates. And so I'm positive and quite frankly, we have a whole bunch of embedded earnings power in our business, given that we have more capital, more liquidity in the space to take advantage of a better lending environment. So I'm excited.