Paolo Rocca
Analyst · Felipe Dos Santos from JPMorgan. Please go ahead
Well, I think, as I comment before, the general trend will depend from the recovery in the price of oil, because in the end this is the driver for investment in the oil company. There may be delay because of the recovery in the balance sheet. And again, this is a major driver. Now, within this so far any scenario of recovery, more aggressive one or a more conservative one, my message - my point is that Tenaris I think is very well-positioned. Now, the numbers are more difficult to anticipate, because it also depends on general trend. But imagine that the United States, considering the destocking, and the reduction in the rig and the reduction in prices. The reduction in the available amount has been very, very substantial. But the recovery could also be very important, because in the end the destocking will fade out. And at the beginning of 2017, we will be - we’ll have limited level of stock on the ground that is more in line with demand. Any increase of the rigs at that point for us, operating on a Rig Direct concern will turn out into an increase shipment. And hopefully, we should be also be able to see increase in the Pipe Logix during 2017, so the opportunity of potential recovery for a company like Tenaris considering its position in Argentina, in Mexico, in Colombia and Latin America, in the complex project. Now, when we look at the project, like offshore, probably the recovery will come a little later, because in the end the reduction in offshore rigs has been substantial. In areas like West Africa, all of Africa, I would say, in Gulf of Mexico we are talking about reduction in the range between 60% to 50% in the case of Gulf of Mexico. But this will not come back very soon. We expect this, that is also an area in which Tenaris has a very high market share to occur probably starting in 2018 on the medium term, not on the short-term. But this also will contribute to sustain and support the medium-term recovery of our sales and of our margin in the medium-term.