Paolo Rocca
Analyst · Frank McGann from BofA Merrill Lynch. You may proceed
As I mentioned before, we will see the recovery starting in 4Q. We summarized the reason before. There will be a recovery in volume mainly due to the lower impact of inventory reduction. We are not expecting a change in the level of rigs in the United States or any major change worldwide. What we see in term of rigs worldwide, we see that the low-cost producers are consistently continuing to invest. This is the case for Saudi, for Kuwait, for the Emirates, and other areas of low cost. But, this in the end is basically compensating on a worldwide level with other reduction in other areas in which -- and I mentioned Colombia, Ecuador, or areas in which the pressure, the price of oil is getting closer to the cost, and they are forced to adjust. This environment, our improvement's coming mainly from reduction inventory and gain of market share in selected markets in which we are making inroads. Now, this has an impact, as I say, because of lower absorption, higher level of production in our facility, and reduction of inefficiency. On the other part, we will, as I mentioned before, see the kick in of our -- of the lower cost of some of our input. Just to give you an order of magnitude, if we should look at the results of today with the repositioning cost we may have in this, we would have something like a 3% additional EBITDA ratio in our account. This is the -- let's say, the difference between what we have in our cost of sales today and what we would have in case of using repositioning cost. On the other side, also, our price in the coming two quarters will reflect the lowering, the lower level of pipe logic that is kicking in, in some of the contracts, in some of the renewals that we are getting. So, these two effects I think will basically compensate. The increasing value will give us some additional EBITDA. This is what we expect for the fourth Q.