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Tronox Holdings plc (TROX)

Q2 2022 Earnings Call· Thu, Jul 28, 2022

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you for joining and welcome to the Tronox Holdings Q2 2022 Earnings Call. My name is Brika and I'll be your event specialist on today's call. [Operator Instructions] I now have the pleasure of handing the call over to our host, Jennifer Guenther, Vice President of Investor Relations. So Jennifer, please go ahead.

Jennifer Guenther

Analyst

Thank you, and welcome to our second quarter 2022 conference call and webcast. Turning to Slide 2 on our call today are John Romano and Jean-Francois Turgeon, Co-Chief Executive Officers and Tim Carlson, Chief Financial Officer. We will be using slides as we move through today's call. Those of you listening by Internet broadcast through our website should already have them. For those listening by telephone, if you haven't already done so, you can access the presentation on our website at investor.tronox.com. Moving to Slide 3. A friendly reminder that comments made on this call and the information provided in our presentation and on our website include certain statements that are forward-looking and subject to various risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, the specific factors summarized in our SEC filings. This information represents our best judgment based on what we know today. However, actual results may vary based on these risks and uncertainties. The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. During the conference call, we will refer to certain non-U.S. GAAP financial terms that we use in the management of our business and believe are useful to investors in evaluating the company's performance. Reconciliations to their nearest U.S. GAAP terms are provided in our earnings release and in the appendix of the accompanying presentation. Additionally, please note that all financial comparisons made during the call are on a year-over-year basis, unless otherwise noted. Moving to Slide 4. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to John Romano. John?

John Romano

Analyst

Thanks, Jennifer, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'd like to start this morning's call by setting the stage with a quick overview of Tronox. With the world's largest vertically integrated TiO2 producer with 9 pigment plants, 6 mines, 5 upgrading facilities across 6 continents. Our 2021 revenue totaled $3.6 billion, which was fairly evenly distributed across the Americas, Europe, Middle East and Africa and Asia Pacific. Our 1.1 million tons of pigment capacity supports our well-balanced base of approximately 1,200 customers globally. Our vertically integrated business model supplies approximately 85% of our internal feedstock needs, and this ensures consistent and secure supply for our customers. In addition to TiO2, we also generate significant value as the world's second largest producer of zircon with approximately 300,000 tons of capacity. We held an Investor Day in June to review the transformation of Tronox over the last several years and where we're heading. We are very proud of the organization we created and the value we have and will continue to generate for our stakeholders. I invite you to listen to a replay of the webcast that you haven't already to learn more about our strategy, key initiatives and our mid- and long-term financial targets. Now let's turn to Slide 5 for a review of our key highlights. Tronox delivered record earnings and a strong margin performance this quarter. We achieved adjusted EBITDA of $275 million, slightly above the midpoint of our guided range, and an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 29.1%, exceeding expectations. This was the 21st quarter in a row that we achieved adjusted EBITDA margins greater than 20%, and the seventh consecutive quarter where margins were above 25%. Evidence of the strength and resilience of our business through a variety of economic scenarios. We also…

Timothy Carlson

Analyst

Thank you, JF. On Slide 13, we provide an overview of our financial position, liquidity and capital resources. We ended the second quarter with $2.5 billion of debt, and our balance sheet is very healthy. We have no significant maturities until 2028, no financial covenants on our term loans or bonds and fixed rate interest on approximately 70% of our total debt. Total available liquidity as of June 30 was $508 million, including $112 million in cash and cash equivalents, which is well distributed across our global operations. While this level of cash is below our generally targeted range of $150 million to $200 million, we're comfortable with current and forecast liquidity given the strength of our vertically integrated business model. So we opportunistically bought back $25 million of shares in Q2 and paid down a piece of our revolver draw from the 158Venator settlement. Capital expenditures totaled $99 million in the second quarter, with the increase year-on-year, driven by the key capital projects JF reviewed. Depreciation, depletion and amortization expense was $67 million. Our free cash flow for the quarter was a use of $67 million due primarily to the $85 million settlement paid in Q2. We anticipate second half free cash flow to significantly outpace first half free cash flow in order to achieve our full year cash flow target. We returned $66 million to shareowners in the second quarter, $25 million in the form of share buybacks with the repurchase of approximately 1.5 million shares and $41 million in the form of dividends as we paid out the dividends declared in the first and second quarter. Year-to-date, we've returned $91 million to shareowners, inclusive of the $25 million of share repurchases in the first quarter. Turning to Slide 14. As John mentioned, while there have been recent…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We have our first question on the phone line today from David Begleiter of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. You may proceed with your question.

David Begleiter

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning. John, JF, spot price in Asia continued to weaken. I think they're down for 12 the last 13 weeks. We still see U.S. and European price move higher. How long can this dynamic continue following Asian spot prices but firming or rising Western prices?

John Romano

Analyst

So look, what's happening in Asia Pacific has a lot to do with the Chinese exports. Clearly, they've gone up a little bit as the lockdowns quite frankly, some people are talking about how they've ended. There's still lockdowns going on over there. So demand has slowed down. Some of the housing effects in China have also created some impacts on the level of exports. So we have seen exports, we're exporting out of that facility. We have out of our plant in China. To be specific to your question, we're still seeing positive momentum on pricing. We talked about it in the prepared comments that our pricing for the third quarter will be higher - I mean in the third quarter is higher than it was in the second quarter. We saw price improvement across all regions and across all of our contract types. So I referenced margin stability and our volume contracts. So at this particular stage, we're still confident in the forecast. That's why the range that we put out had a variety of different scenarios that were built into it. I'd say, more predominantly focused on FX and volume that could roll from one quarter to the next. But we feel good about our pricing at this stage because it's already negotiated. We're third of the way through the quarter.

David Begleiter

Analyst

Understood. And just quickly, zircon demand in China, can you talk to that as trending right now?

John Romano

Analyst

Yes. Look, so we are still getting more requests for orders than we can fill. That being said, we're not immune to what's happening in China, but I think it's good for you to understand. So I think anecdotally, people talk about 50% of the zircon consumption that goes to China. For us, it's about 35%. And only about 27% of that 35% of our volume actually goes to the ceramic market, which is more impacted by the housing elements. So when we think about where we're seeing orders, even if China were to slow down more, we've got more requests for volume in other regions of the world, and we're placing that volume so that we can invoice those accordingly. Jean-François Turgeon: And David, it's JF. I would add to that. The story on zircon is more a supply story than a demand story because what happened is there's all the zircon mine have basically lower yield, and there's less production of zircon that has been produced around the world, significantly less and no new project and new mine has been to added to have zircon capacity. So that's why we're very confident in our zircon position.

Operator

Operator

We now have the next question from Josh Spector of UBS. You may proceed.

JoshSpector

Analyst

Hi everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to ask on the fourth quarter implied guidance. So if you look at that, it's kind of flat to sequentially up a lot. Normally, fourth quarter volumes are down. It's harder to get pricing. Just curious what gives you that conviction that earnings could be up sequentially or perhaps up 10% plus to get to the top end of your guidance? What's in your control? What's not?

Timothy Carlson

Analyst

Josh, it's Tim. Just looking at Q3 and Q4, specifically Q4, just given anticipated pricing volumes improved over absorption due to our higher production volumes, incremental savings from newTRON, some isolated commodity cost reductions that we're starting to see in favorable to FX. We're quite confident in our full year guidance, which gets you where you're thinking for Q4.

John Romano

Analyst

And look, on the third quarter, Josh, the - we have a range there, right? And some of that has to do with volume expectations. Specifically, nobody really knows what's going to happen in Europe this quarter with - there will be a holiday period. There hasn't been one for a couple of years and people are going to go on holiday. So those volumes that we have forecasted are probably a little bit lighter than what they may be because we're assuming it might be a little bit worse. But the reality is it depends on where you look at the range. And we do feel confident that the numbers that we put forward. And specifically, when we think about newTRON, we talk a lot about newTRON, but the benefits of newTRON are going to continue to ratably move up as we move through the balance of the year, and those are additional dollars that will be reflected in EBITDA. Jean-François Turgeon: And we also start Atlas Campaspe and that mine is a less expensive mine than the Snapper/Ginkgo that were - we have shut down. And obviously, it's producing more. So those explain why we're confident in our Q4, Josh.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from John McNulty of BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open, John.

John McNulty

Analyst

Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe just one quick housekeeping one. Just on the zircon that's rolling over from Q2 to 3Q, can you quantify what the value of that was.

John Romano

Analyst

The rollover is close to $4 million to $5 million of incremental EBITDA quarter-on-quarter. Relative to the tons that role.

Timothy Carlson

Analyst

And to be fair, though, when we talked about that earlier, there's still some opportunity that we're not planning for rolling. When we think about logistics and shipping, it's getting better, but we're not out of the woods yet. So that's, again, why we have a bit of a - that is a factor in the range that we have for the quarter.

John McNulty

Analyst

Got it. Okay. No, that makes sense. And then can you help us - it sounds like between Atlas and Project newTRON, you've got some cost benefits that were rolling through in the second quarter and it seems like that's going to continue to ramp throughout the year. I guess, can you help us to think about on Project newTRON at least what the run rate was for the second quarter in terms of savings and where you expect it to end the year. So is it a back-end loaded kind of thing? Is it a little bit more of a straight line? Like, I guess, how should we be thinking about the savings and how they flow through?

John Romano

Analyst

Yes, John, I think of it more as a straight line. As a reminder, $20 million in 2021 and then an incremental $70 million to $80 million coming into 2022. So that will be realized ratably each quarter. So that's one of the reasons that's driving the incremental improvement quarter-on-quarter by $10 million to $15 million.

John McNulty

Analyst

Got it. And then maybe just one last question, if I can throw it in there. Can you help us to get a little bit better color on what you're seeing from your European markets? I know there's been, I guess, some commentary about pockets of weakness, et cetera. At the same time, we're seeing pricing continue to push higher. So - and look, maybe that's cost related, maybe it's good demand is still really tight. But I guess maybe a little bit better color on European TiO2 demand in the market would be helpful.

Timothy Carlson

Analyst

Yes, John, so just on the comments you made about price with regards to costs. We're pushing price, not based on - these aren't surcharges. These are what we're pricing in for quarters. So it's price momentum moving into Q3. And from the standpoint of the European market. It is a little bit soft in pockets. But when we think about that compared to the inventory that we had to meet the orders and we think about where we were in the second quarter versus the third quarter, which we said was going to be relatively flat. That's factored into the European numbers. It's factored into the Asia Pacific numbers. The North American volume still remains, I would say, the strongest globally. That being said, we're still seeing solid demand in Europe, although clearly, with some of the things that are going on, again, I mentioned the holiday period. August is normally a down month. And there - we are forecasting it to be a little lower than what it would normally be because people are likely going to take a little bit longer of a holiday. And nobody really knows what they're going to do and they're come back. So there's a variety of puts and takes on the volume in Europe. But again, we use the word dynamic it's constantly, I'd say, adjusting, and we're confident in the numbers that we put forward in the forecast.

Operator

Operator

We now have the next question from Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research. Please go ahead.

Frank Mitsch

Analyst

Hi, good morning, folks. If I look at your pricing year-over-year and sequentially, it's a little bit behind maybe what some others are. And I'm wondering if some of that might be due to the margin stabilization agreements that you have where your price improvements there or perhaps lower than what you could get on the open market. Is that how we should think about it? How are your pricing moving through the various agreements that you have?

John Romano

Analyst

Yes, Frank, this is John. So again, we've been very open that our focus from a commercial strategy is to try to stabilize our business throughout a variety of economic conditions and margin stability does have an impact on that. Over the course of the last 18 months, prices have been moving up. And I think we have to remember that margin stability existed back in '18 and '19 where pricing didn't go down as much. So it's a 2-way street with our agreements. Not everybody has a margin stability agreement. We don't have a target for that because they're based on individual customers and their interest in margin stability. Some of them are still volatile. So we have a mix. But I would say our strategy is, in fact, longer term, more than it is spot.

Frank Mitsch

Analyst

Got you. That's very helpful, John. And Tim, in your discussions about free cash flow, you're looking at a stronger second half versus the first half. You also mentioned in terms of buybacks that you're opportunistic in the second quarter. And it looks like roughly the amount - the price per share that you paid in the second quarter is roughly where the stock is today. So was that - taking those two comments together, is that - is it fair to assume that we should be looking at kind of this recent $25 million per quarter run rate in terms of buybacks?

Timothy Carlson

Analyst

Yes, Frank, we did buy 1.5 million shares at $16.75 during the second quarter. As we generate cash and we have cash available for deployment. So we'll definitely look opportunistically at share repurchase.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Hassan Ahmed from Alembic Global Advisors. Please go ahead when you're ready.

Hassan Ahmed

Analyst

I just wanted to revisit that question about implied Q4 guidance. Look, I mean, you guys did $275 million in Q2 in EBITDA. The midpoint of Q3 guidance is $285 million. And in order to sort of, I guess, with that in mind, hit the midpoint of your full year guidance, you guys need to generate $300 million in Q4 EBITDA, which obviously historically has been a seasonally weak quarter. So, I'm just wanting to revisit the moving parts over there, that what makes you guys so comfortable that for the full year Q4 will actually be the highest point in EBITDA. Jean-François Turgeon: So Hassan, I think that newTRON is a big element of why we feel good, but we're working on our costs. We're also pushing our production. We need to rebuild inventory that helped the fixed cost absorption. We have our new mine Atlas Campaspe that start. And basically, the solid demand that we have for our customer and price. And I'd say that the exchange rate, specifically in South Africa and Australia has been very beneficial for us. So those are all the key components that make us feel very confident about our full year range.

Hassan Ahmed

Analyst

Understood. Understood. And if we could quickly sort of go over what you guys are seeing on the ore availability and ore pricing side of things, because there's some out there that are talking about maybe availability becoming less of an issue in the back half of this year into '23. Some of that pricing momentum that we've seen kind of easing a bit. I mean, to me, it seems more of a secular thing where folks have underinvested in mining operations and these higher ore prices are here to stay. I mean, which camp are you guys in? Jean-François Turgeon: Look, Hassan, I'd say that we haven't seen high-grade feedstock price going down. And in fact, if you listen to some of the key players in that industry, Rio [indiscernible], they're all talking about price that will continue to increase. And it's all linked to the fact that, to your point, there was underinvestment in new mine and new capacity. In fact, Tronox with our vertical integration, we're the only one who have invest to have mining capacity with Atlas Campaspe starting in Q4 and with Jazan that has continued to produce slag. And that position us in a very good place because obviously, we control the cost of that important part of the market. And as you can imagine, having a plant in China we track the ilmenite price in China very closely as well. And we haven't seen the ilmenite price going down like it had been the case in previous different cycles.

John Romano

Analyst

Yes. No, I mean the reality is it's at a high. And there are other reasons - I mean if you think about iron ore is produced and a lot of ilmenite comes as a byproduct. And as the iron ore market has kind of softened a bit, there are less - there's less iron ore being produced, therefore, less ilmenite, which is just exacerbating a bad situation from the ilmenite equation. So I would agree with what JF said.

Operator

Operator

We now have Michael Leithead of Barclays. Your line is open, Michael.

Michael Leithead

Analyst

Great. Thanks for joining guys. First question on the currency side. I just wanted to follow up on what you're assuming to be the year-over-year benefit in the second half of the year, just given you guys have a bit of a unique setup, as you mentioned, with the Aussie dollar and the South African Rands.

Timothy Carlson

Analyst

Mike, it's Tim. Looking at last year, the Rand traded in the $14 to $15 range of $14.60 to $15.5 in the back half and the Aussie dollar was at 73%. Just looking at current rates, which is pretty much where we are settling in from our overall range perspective. It does give us upside. Because as a reminder, every one movement in the Rand gives us $7 million to $8 million a quarter and every $0.01 movement in the Aussie dollar gives us $2 million to $3 million a quarter. We get hurt a little bit from the Euro. The Euro was in a much different place last year, but we've accounted for that in terms of our overall implications on revenue. So it will be a pretty good tailwind for us year-over-year in the back half.

Michael Leithead

Analyst

And then secondly, can you just kind of broadly walk through your input cost basket, just kind of where you're seeing incremental pressure where you think things to maybe stay flattish versus maybe, I think you had mentioned something about some areas that you could see some easing in the back half?

John Romano

Analyst

Yes. So overall, we've seen that 56% increase year-over-year that JF had talked about. That's going to moderate quite a bit sequentially. We only see an additional $40 million first half to second half increase. And most of that is coming in the energy utility area and also some process gaps. As it relates to some easing and cost structures, we're seeing both sulfuric acid and sulfur coming down in Q3 and Q4, just given overall macroeconomic conditions. But all in all, an overall net reduction in the pace of growth first half to second half. Energy, as I mentioned, continues to be our number one driver for increased costs. Those cost increases obviously vary by location. Energy, as a reminder, is about 10% - approximately 10% of our overall cost tax. So it's not material, but it ranges from 4% in Saudi Arabia to 20% in the U.K. So there's quite a bit of variability by site, but it's not a big overall component in the U.K. itself. I know there's probably quite a bit of concern as it relates to what was happening in the current spot market. Just given our current forecast, we've built that into our forecast. But with that being said, we are hedged about two-third of our exposure in Q3 and have probably an additional $3 million to $4 million of exposure at current spot rates for the back half, but if that mitigates at all, it will be a benefit for us. All of that obviously is before tax.

Operator

Operator

We'll move on to our next question, which comes from Matthew DeYoe of Bank of America. Your line is open.

Matthew DeYoe

Analyst

So if we look at the ramp up of Atlas Campaspe and analyze Snapper/Ginkgo. How should we think about the earnings uplift from switching to higher grade ore bodies, maybe on a 23 to 22 basis? And then it also just seems like you're talking about some tailwinds to 4Q, but kind of often when we see new mines ramping across other industries, you have some pretty poor fixed cost absorption. So why is that, I guess, not the case for you this year? Jean-François Turgeon: So Matthew, Atlas Campaspe is a mine that has - we have start mining. So the runoff mine has started. So obviously, in Q2, we had the high cost that you're talking about as we start. But in Q4, obviously, we'll have more momentum. And because of that, this will improve the situation. We're also still operating Ginkgo and Snapper at the moment. So we're basically operating more asset, and that's additional costs, and that will stop as we progress with the year. And I can tell you, John and I received picture this morning of the Atlas mine. And the geologist was so excited about some patch of ore that he said we can bypass the concentrator. And I think I explained that previously. When you start a new mine, you start in the high-grade area and Atlas is a very high-grade mine, and we will benefit for the first three years of operation with very nice rutile and zircon and ilmenite high-grade spot in that mine. So look, it was an important investment. It's a capital that we put, but it will create real value for the business.

John Romano

Analyst

And so that value is going to come through the zircon that's coming through the system to JF's point, which is very high quality. It's our prime. It's going to yield the highest price. And that will factor into our sales forecast moving towards the end of the year.

Matthew DeYoe

Analyst

So I guess if we were to look at zircon in above all, also Ginkgo, sorry, also Atlas, right. So like what do you expect for next year volume growth for zircon versus this year, for example?

John Romano

Analyst

Look, as it come - so, we're going to get more volume. Again, you have to start thinking about where we are in the supply chain, too, right. We mentioned we've got more volume - more orders than we can place. So Ginkgo will start to phase out. Snapper will start to phase out. Atlas comes on the body of ore that we're mining in is going to yield more zircon to JF's point in the first two to three years. There's no specific volume estimate that's - I would say that's sufficiently over the 300,000 ton capacity we referenced. But - and I would say early in that mining process, we're going to have more volume available. And I can't - again, it comes back down to the quality of the ore that's coming out of there, which is going to be very high grade. JF? Jean-François Turgeon: No, no. Look, I - look, it's hard, Matthew, for us to give guidance on 2023 at the moment and the benefit it would have. But we'll track that closely. And as we progress with this year, we'll be able to give you more color for '23.

Matthew DeYoe

Analyst

Understood. I guess, in a similar way if I can slide one more in just with the Jazan slagger and I know it's not running at full rates. Is that a positive for earnings right now? Is it neutral or is it negative? Just thinking about the tailwinds from the use of the product, but maybe the headwinds from operating only one of the two furnaces at lower cost? Or is it just given - I'll leave it there. Jean-François Turgeon: So Matthew, I mean, we don't own Jazan. So Jazan is a task asset. So obviously, I mean, we're buying the slag. We have an agreement to buy all the production from the slagger and we're buying at market price. So we're paying full price for the Jazan slag. Look, I'd say it's an advantage because in a tight market, having additional feedstock put us in a very good position. And we always claim that being vertically integrated would have advantage for our own customer. But it's really more when we would own the asset and operate it that you would start to see benefit from Jazan.

John Romano

Analyst

And we talked about $150 - $100 million to $150 million working capital build in the year. And some of that is, in fact, the slag that we're getting from Jazan. And we need that to get our inventory levels. We talk about a tight market that's tight on the feedstock. So this will get our safety stocks at our individual plants up. Even though right now, we're only selling or using the slag from Jazan at Yanbu, we have other mines that we're moving volume around and securing our supply position for the longer

Operator

Operator

We now have Jeffrey Zekauskas of JPMorgan.

Jeffrey Zekauskas

Analyst

Thanks very much. I think your volumes are running down 7% year-to-date. And if you're volume - if you're right about your forecast for the third quarter, maybe they'd be down 5% for the 9 months and the fourth quarter is light. So I don't know, maybe your volumes are down 5% this year. Venator's volumes are down. And maybe commodities volumes are running flat. So there's no growth in titanium dioxide in the west. If you look at [indiscernible] volumes, they're down, PPG's volumes are down, XOs volumes are down. So is this a year of contraction in overall titanium dioxide demand? And because there have been so many shortages of raw materials for the coatings companies, they have very, very high inventories. So in general, are we going to have another year as a base case of declining TiO2 demand in '23. What do you make of this whole situation?

John Romano

Analyst

Jeff, so it's John. And so let's - I guess we just talk specifically about our forecast for the third quarter. So we said relatively flat to the second quarter. When we compare that to the third quarter of 2021, it's relatively flat to the third quarter of 2021. 2021 second quarter was a very high quarter and a lot of that had to do with our inventory and our ability to actually fill those orders. So - moving into the second half of the year, we talked about flat volume in Q3. Could there be some seasonality in the fourth quarter? I think a lot of that's going to depend on what happens as we get into this holiday period. We're not really forecasting a significant shift in the fourth quarter volume, and that's why we're confident in our full year guidance. But from a year-over-year, yes, 2021 was a peak year with regards to growth on TiO2. At the same time, we still believe that year-over-year, there's still going to be a need for 25,000 of additional tons due to just regular growth in the market. So I don't think the growth is over. The hyper-cycle of expansion that happened after COVID has probably leveled out a bit. JF? Jean-François Turgeon: Yes. And Jeff, as you know, there was no expansion of capacity in the west. And the comment I made about feedstock on Hassan question earlier, still remain valid that there is no investment in feedstock and that would limit the capacity that could be added of new pigment. And then new pigment would grow as the world GDP grow. It doesn't track year-on-year, but it track on the long term.

John Romano

Analyst

And maybe just one more comment on the inventory because we still believe that the inventory throughout the supply chain from a TiO2 perspective is low. Our inventory is low. Even with any kind of - we talk about dynamic movement around Asia and Europe, we're still having trouble filling orders. So at this particular stage, we think the supply chain, although some of our customers have talked about the supply chain getting better. I don't think that's necessarily fully representative of the TiO2 market.

Jeffrey Zekauskas

Analyst

And then in the $262 million valuation reversal, is there a cash tax benefit over the next five years from that? Or is it just a noncash accounting mechanism? And what are your cash taxes this year in efficient?

Timothy Carlson

Analyst

Yes. So Jeff, it's Tim. We have over $8 billion of loss carry forwards that will give us an estimated cash benefit of $1.2 billion over the next 15 to 20 years. So it's a noncash item for the current year, but it will definitely give us cash benefits in future years. From our attributes, we got about $70 million of cash benefits in '21, and that number is going to be closer to $110 million to $120 million in '22 in terms of cash benefits. And then our cash taxes for the year, we're currently estimating the $50 million to $60 million.

Jeffrey Zekauskas

Analyst

And what were they last year, Tim?

Timothy Carlson

Analyst

Last year, they were 45% to 50%.

Operator

Operator

We now have Duncan Andrew from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead when you're ready.

William Tang

Analyst

This is Will Tang on for Duncan. I think previously, you talked about possibly increasing TiO2 volume production this year. But I mean, it sounds like from the previous question, your sales volumes won't be increasing by much, if anything. Can you help us think about whether that production increase is kind of still in the plans? And kind of if so, how quickly you're thinking about going through that? Is that like a fourth quarter type of sales increase or maybe like the first half 2023 type of thing?

John Romano

Analyst

Yes, Will, it is in our forecast for the back half of the year. We do anticipate increasing production. That's going to be a driver of lower cost per ton, and it's actually also a bit of a driver for our working capital assumptions for the year because we do need to get inventories back to levels that are appropriate to support our customers.

Operator

Operator

We have a final question from the line from Ed Brucker of Barclays. Your line is open.

EdBrucker

Analyst

Just one for me today. It seems like that reduction remains a priority, although maybe it's - given what you've done probably maybe lower on the stack. But I've noticed, obviously, your bonds sitting at significant discount. So just with - as free cash flow improves at the end of the year, would you be open to buying back bonds in the open market at that discount? And then secondly, just what kind of debt level are you comfortable with over the next three years as you pay down debt?

Timothy Carlson

Analyst

Yes. Ed, it's Tim. As you know, we really don't have any maturities until 2028. So very comfortable with our position on debt. In addition, 71% of our interest rate is fixed - so I'm comfortable there. You are right in terms of where our bonds are currently trading in the low 80s, it is something that we're looking at, and it's something that we'll definitely consider opportunistically with an opportunistic share repurchase as well as we generate cash.

Operator

Operator

As we have no more questions, I'd like to hand it back to John Romano for some closing remarks.

John Romano

Analyst

Well, we'd like to thank you for joining us for the call today. In summary, we're focused on the levers within our control, executing against our strategy, focusing on our operational excellence and delivering on our key capital projects to enhance our vertically integrated portfolio. We believe we're well positioned to continue to delivering on our commitments. We're confident in our forecast, and we look forward to reporting results to you and speaking with you throughout the quarter. So thank you for joining us today.

Operator

Operator

Thank you all. That does conclude today's call. Thank you again for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.