Earnings Labs

Tronox Holdings plc (TROX)

Q1 2016 Earnings Call· Thu, May 5, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Tronox Limited Q1 2016 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will host a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. Now, I will hand the conference over to Brennen Arndt, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you have the floor.

Brennen Arndt - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you, Brian and welcome to Tronox Limited's first quarter 2016 conference call and webcast. With me today are Tom Casey, Chairman and CEO; and Kathy Harper, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Joining us for the Q&A session will be Jean-François Turgeon, President of Tronox TiO2; and Ed Flynn, President of Tronox Alkali. We will be using slides as we move through today's conference call. Those of you listening by Internet broadcast through our website should already have them. For those listening by telephone, if you haven't already done so, you can access them on our website at tronox.com. A reminder that our discussion today will include certain statements that are forward-looking and subject to various risks and uncertainties including, but not limited to the specific factors summarized in our 2015 Form 10-K and other SEC filings. This information represents our best judgment based on today's information. However, actual results may vary based on these risks and uncertainties. The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. During the conference call, we will refer to certain non-U.S. GAAP financial terms that we use in the management of our business, including EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings per diluted share. EBITDA represents net income before net interest expense, income tax and depreciation, depletion and amortization expense. Adjusted EBITDA represents EBITDA as further adjusted for non-cash, unusual and non-recurring items. Adjusted earnings per diluted share represents EPS that also adjusted for unusual or non-recurring items on a fully diluted basis. A reconciliation is provided in our earnings release issued yesterday after the market. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Tom Casey. Tom. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Brennen, and thank all of you for joining us this morning.…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. Our first question comes from the line of Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Hassan I. Ahmed - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Analyst

Good morning, Tom. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Morning, Hassan.

Hassan I. Ahmed - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Analyst

Good to hear you on the call and hope you're feeling better. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you, very much.

Hassan I. Ahmed - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Analyst

Tom, my question is around obviously, your sales and lot of the participants in the industry are talking now quite favorably about sort of price hikes and price hike sticking and the likes. Now as I take a look at 2015, it seemed that the industry had bottomed out in 2014; profitability was poor, inventories were under control, and the like. But one thing that blindsided all of us was the impact of currency. So obviously, the euro weakened quite dramatically in 2015 and on the back of that we started seeing a fair bit of European product, arriving in the U.S., right, and that obviously negatively impacted pricing. So could you talk a bit about what you are seeing in terms of trade flows today on the TiO2 side of things? Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Sure, first, talking about currency, I mean, we have a situation that is – I mean, somewhat different from some of the other participants in our market, in that, as Kathy pointed out, we incur significant expenses for all of our mining activity. So two mines in South Africa and one mine in Australia in local currencies and the product from those mining activities are sold in dollars, and so as the currencies moved against the dollar, we actually benefited significantly from exchange rate movements. We were surprised, I think, it's fair to say at the end of 2014, by the Chinese revaluation of its currency. But that applied across the board, that applied to all markets and all products and I think it did have an impact in 2014, but that's pretty much been absorbed now. I mean, China, China exports in terms of trade flows, for example on a LTM basis, we track the IHS data and some of the other people who follow exports, and China exports into APAC or have increased pretty significantly year-on-year by about 16%. But China exports into every other region in the world including North America are down significantly. And I think they are down 18% into Europe. They are down 17% in Latin America and they are down 7% into North America and the Middle-East. So that currency revaluation as it affected China sales has resulted in year-on-year sales declines. And again, I think our view is somewhat differentiated from the other – some other participants in the markets view with respect to foreign exchange. It has benefited us significantly over the last several years in terms of the way our portfolio of costs and revenue is organized.

Hassan I. Ahmed - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Analyst

Very sad. Now again, sort of sticking to sort of the TiO2 side of things and what may be happening in the industry, again over the last couple of quarters they seem to be divergent sort of operating habits from a bunch of the participants. While some were reducing their rates to keep inventories under check, others were running at 90% plus utilization rates. Today, with all these price hikes sort of on the table, are you seeing the market participants behave rationally? Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: I'm sorry, are we saying the market participants do what?

Hassan I. Ahmed - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Analyst

Participants behaving rationally as it pertains to sort of not just jacking up operating rates and messing up the industry? Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Look, I mean, I don't want to speak to other people's motivations or specific company behavior in specific markets. I can tell you that, I thought last year, Huntsman, I believe Cristal, Chemours and we all lowered our plant utilization rates. And we all talked about declining inventories which we had set as a goal. That is that we wanted to reduce inventories, clearly the way that one reduces inventories is one reduces production and continues to maintain sales which is what we all tried to do. I don't see any – I think the fact that price declines were much lower first quarter sequentially and have now turned up means that the market is absorbing the fact that prices were at unsustainable levels, and customers who want to have a reliable source of quality supply have to recognize the fact that the supplier needs to be able to make a reasonable amount of return on the capital invested in its assets producing that supply. I mean, we're actively in the market every day as you know. As I said earlier, demand is up 7% for two consecutive quarters and we don't see the kind of behavior that you might be asking about.

Hassan I. Ahmed - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Analyst

Very helpful. Thanks, Tom.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Richard Hatch with RBC. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Richard Hatch - RBC Europe Ltd.

Analyst · RBC. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Thanks. And morning, Tom, and morning all. Sorry, if I missed this, I got on just a touch late. Are you able to elaborate a bit more on your level of finished goods inventories of pigment in terms of days and how that compares to the market, please? Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: We don't report specific numbers of days anymore. But our inventories are lower. I think we said in the presentation, they are lower than seasonal norms. And I think that – I noticed that one of the other TiO2 operators talked about extending orders delivery cycles. I think we also have found ourselves in position where that's happening. So if you would assume that seasonal norms at this point are around 50 days, because normally companies would be building inventory in the first quarter going into the high selling season, and sort of average year across the whole year are 45 days of supply perhaps, we have said that we are lower than that.

Richard Hatch - RBC Europe Ltd.

Analyst · RBC. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Okay. Thanks so much, really helpful. And then the next one is just on the cash flow statement, the negative $54 million working accounts payable number that impacts your working capital. There was a similar move in the fourth quarter as well. Should we expect that to continue in Q2 or do we expect it to sort of flatten and be more nearer nil? Thanks. Katherine Carolyn Harper - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: This is Kathy Harper. It's a bit lumpy because we do semi-annual interest payments and a big portion of that move is related to the interest accrued. And so you won't see it in second quarter, but you'll see it again in the third quarter.

Richard Hatch - RBC Europe Ltd.

Analyst · RBC. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Okay. Cool. Thanks, Kathy. Thanks. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yep.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Roger Spitz with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Roger Neil Spitz - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning. Can you comment on, I guess Rio Tinto and Iluka were saying that zircon prices were down 10% and you are seeing apparently flat zircon pricing? Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yes. What would you like me to comment on?

Roger Neil Spitz - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Are you selling into perhaps a different end market than they are? Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: I don't think so. But the zircon market is always soft in the first quarter because of Chinese New Year, in terms of volumes, and sometimes that affects prices. We did say that zircon prices were down year-on-year and perhaps that's what Iluka and Rio are talking about. But generally our prices for zircon were flat fourth quarter to first quarter. I don't know what the basis for their statements are. Obviously I don't have information about their sales or their pricing practices. But our sales were essentially priced at a relatively constant level quarter-to-quarter.

Roger Neil Spitz - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Okay. Can you size Fairbreeze's EBITDA contribution, update the numbers you'd given us previously given the current market environment on a run rate basis and how we should think about the tempo of that as you ramp up Fairbreeze? Please. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: I can tell you a little bit about production perhaps. I mean, 2016 is the year in which we ramp. First we started production very, very modest amount at the end of December of 2015. And the first six months of our mines opening, we've already discussed our – involve a ramp where you're sort of working out all of the mechanics and so on. So you don't get full production for the first six months of the mine's existence. But in a normal year of normal operations, we would expect 60,000 tons of zircon and 30,000 tons of rutile to come out of Fairbreeze and we would expect essentially all of the ilmenite that is required to serve KZN – the KZN smelters that come out of Fairbreeze. That would lead us to a slightly, well not slightly, a more efficient operational performance at the KZN smelters because the quality of the feedstock, the ilmenite feedstock coming out of Fairbreeze is good. And we also no longer have to ship the inventory that we had been maintaining at Namakwa Sands on the other coast and in Australia to KZN. So there'll be a reduction in shipping costs, a reduction in ilmenite storage costs, a reduction and increase in operating efficiency, all of that is sort of operating at the smelter level and then we would have incremental production of zircon and rutile. We have – looking now at our Q, page 36 in the Q, I think we said that... Katherine Carolyn Harper - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah. So once it will be out later today and so you can read all the details. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. I am sorry. We didn't file it yet. But it basically reflects the kind of numbers, I was talking about. 25,000 ton for rutile, and 55,000 ton for zircon, and 121,000 ton of pig iron Katherine Carolyn Harper - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: On an average year... Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: On an average year of production. That will be in the queue which we file... Katherine Carolyn Harper - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Later today. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Today or Friday soon.

Roger Neil Spitz - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Thank you very much. Jean-François Turgeon - Executive Vice President: Tom to reinforce on your point, the quality of the ilmenite that we get on Fairbreeze allow us to make a pig iron quality that is better than what we have done in the last couple of year and we can get an extra $100 a ton premium on the sales of that product going forward. So that's another advantage. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Right. Okay, thank you.

Roger Neil Spitz - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Oh, interesting, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Edlain Rodriguez with UBS. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Edlain Rodriguez - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · UBS. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Thank you. I mean, Tom, I am wishing you well. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you very much.

Edlain Rodriguez - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · UBS. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Quick question. In terms of the capacity that you have curtailed, now given that volume has picked up quite a bit and prices are moving up, is the intend to keep those plants under curtailment or is it to – are you planning on bringing them back anytime soon? Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: We believe that a very disciplined approach to production, to managing supply relative to demand is what has facilitated the recovery in our market and we intend to continue to be disciplined about that. So we don't intend to bring back the full production instantaneously simply because we could see the very first signs of price recovery. Over the course of the next period of time in the market, if demand continues to grow at 7% and inventories continue to be as low as they are and prices continue to rise, we do not want to produce sudden spikes in price because we think it's bad for our customers and therefore ends up being bad for us. But we do want to get back to a sustainably profitable level of financial performance and we understand balancing supply and demand is going to be an important part of that and we intend to be disciplined about it. So, no, I would not expect us to crash the market with bringing all that back shortly.

Edlain Rodriguez - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · UBS. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

That makes sense. And as a follow-up, like in terms of the $30 million hit for fixed cost absorption, I mean it seems a lot, given that those two plants only have capacity of about 80,000 tons. Yeah, I guess you mentioned that the feedstocks are involved also, but it seems like... Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Right.

Edlain Rodriguez - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · UBS. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

....is there anything else going on in there and also should we expect that kind of hit to continue forward as those plants stay down? Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Well, let's talk about the facilities that are down. 50% of our slag production is down, all right. So that's a very substantial amount of our entire slag production, 50%. About 75,000 tons or 15% of pigment production is down. So the combination of those two is what aggregates to the $30 million – I think it's $31 million-ish of fixed cost absorption penalty this quarter. We will continue to absorb that basically for the time that they are down. And as we bring them back, when we bring them back that will go away. So, I mean, clearly we know that, when you have a large fixed cost business, and you slowdown production, you have to absorb the fixed cost over a fewer units of production meaning the cost per unit is higher. That means EBITDA will get squeezed. We knew that when we did it. And I think we actually talked about it back when we first made the decision. We nevertheless believe it was the right strategy because we saved cash and we balanced the market and as I said in the answer to the last question, we don't intent to be precipitous about changing course until we know that the market is solid and recovering and our customers are in a place where more supply is appropriate. And so long as we're down at these levels there will be a fixed cost penalty.

Edlain Rodriguez - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · UBS. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Clearly. Thank you very much. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of James Finnerty with Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

James P. Finnerty - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning, Tom. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning.

James P. Finnerty - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Hey. Looking into the second quarter of 2016, just sort of checking, is there any one-time items in the year ago quarter that we should sort of be thinking about when we look into 2Q 2016? Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: I'm passing to Kathy.

James P. Finnerty - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Okay. Katherine Carolyn Harper - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: For the second quarter 2016, we will have charges related to the long-haul move in the Alkali business which wasn't in the second quarter of last year.

James P. Finnerty - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Okay. And what kind of range should we be thinking about? Katherine Carolyn Harper - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: $4-ish million.

James P. Finnerty - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Okay. But nothing in the year ago quarter that was a gain or a loss sort of any consequence that we should...? Katherine Carolyn Harper - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: In the year ago quarter, we had a significant charge for LTM which was $49 million, which was the drive.

James P. Finnerty - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Okay. Katherine Carolyn Harper - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: And we didn't have that this year.

James P. Finnerty - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Okay, great. And then, Kathy, while we're on, in terms of debt, you repurchased $20 million during the quarter. I noticed that the debt balance in the balance sheet decreased by more than that? Was there sort of an FX change or something that affected that debt accounts? John Merturi - Global Treasurer & Vice President: Sure. This is John Merturi. In terms of the book value of the debt, this year or as effective Jan 1, there was a new accounting pronouncement that required us to net the financing costs against the debt balance. So that's what you're seeing there. It will be in the full description there.

James P. Finnerty - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

In the Q that' s nothing. Katherine Carolyn Harper - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah.

James P. Finnerty - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Yeah, exactly. And I guess last question just coming back to the curtailment and Tom's comments there. So in theory, once if the curtailment is sort of lifted, that's the sign that you think basically everything is sustainable and the prices are moving up and operating rates are getting better at that point. So we would think operating rates would have to be in healthy area for you to actually change the curtailment? Katherine Carolyn Harper - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: The curtailment is a result of operating rate. You change the operating rates and the curtailment – accountings for the curtailment will dissipate.

James P. Finnerty - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Okay, thank you. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: The driver of ending the curtailment is demand and price stability, right. So as long as we see demand in the market, that is continuing to support purchases at a higher level than we are able to satisfy with our production and our inventory levels, then we will begin to increase production so that we can supply our customers demand at a fair price. When we do that operating rates will inevitably rise and the fixed cost absorption penalty will automatically decline. So, clearly, going back to full production is good because it signals more volume of sales, higher price of sales, otherwise we wouldn't be doing it and better fixed cost absorption, all of which will go to a leveraged EBITDA recovery.

James P. Finnerty - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Okay. And just last one on the TiO2 pricing. The first price increase, could you sort of gauge like what level of that price increase went through for the industry? Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: No.

James P. Finnerty - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of (42:54). Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Hi. I was wondering if you could say what the lower cost of market charge was for this quarter. Did you say there was none, so it was zero? Katherine Carolyn Harper - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: No, for the quarter we actually – the lower cost for market reserves reduced and so it was about $10 million, offsetting the cost of goods flow-through. So, no impact on EBITDA, but if you just look at the change in the reserve flowing through the P&L, it was about $10 million.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

And that compares to $9 million in the prior year? Katherine Carolyn Harper - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yes.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of (43:42). Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Hi, good morning, guys. First question, you mentioned the zircon shipment that shipped in April instead of March. Could you give me an idea what the impact was that on sales and EBITDA then for the quarter? Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: No.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Okay. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Because what I am telling – I mean I said it was 5,000 ton-ish a little bit over 5,000 tons. And if I gave you those impacts, I'd be indicating too much competitively important information.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Okay. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: It's a high margin – Zircon is a high margin product for us.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Okay. You bought bonds back this quarter. You expect to be free cash flow positive for the year. Is there a minimum kind of cash balance liquidity that you want to look to buy back more bonds in the year. Is that something that's in your calendar, is there certain minimum price, how are you thinking about bond repurchases going forward? Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, we operate off of a desire to have a minimum cash balance. I think the numbers you talked about, $100 million, $150 million are – that's a reasonable target range for us. We want to be around there. And also the fact that the bonds have traded up to – I think the last time I looked, they were in low to mid $80 million. The return on the investment buying them back now is different than it was before. But we have cash and there are a variety of opportunities for us to buy bonds back, and if we think it's a good investment of our money, and if we have adequate cash reserves on the balance sheet, then we can do that.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Okay. And then for the second quarter, so you're seeing an increase in demand sequentially. And an increase in TiO2 prices as well, any color on the increase in prices you are seeing sequentially? Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Not yet.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Okay. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: We will talk about it when the quarter is over. But we are obviously in conversations with our customers and we think our customers have recognized that all of us have to be able to make money in the supply chain. And as long as we don't engage in behavior that spikes their cost in an unanticipated way, unacceptable way, and they have the ability to plan, and how they can recover cost increases that we will move back in that direction. And we'll give you a second quarter when it's done. But right now the quarter is not done and so we don't want to get ahead of ourselves there.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of (46:40). Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Good morning. Thanks for taking my call. Most of my questions have been answered. I just wanted to ask which bonds did you buy back in the quarter? Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: A mix of the two. Katherine Carolyn Harper - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yes.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Okay. And John, when you guys talk about being positive free cash flow, is that inclusive of the bond buyback activity or is that simply just cash flow from operations less CapEx? John Merturi - Global Treasurer & Vice President: Cash from operations less CapEx. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Did you hear that?

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

I did, I did. Thanks. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Okay.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

That's it from me. Thanks. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yep.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session for today. I'd now like to call back to Tom Casey, Chief Executive Officer of closing comments. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you very much. Thank you for your interest in Tronox. We appreciate that. We continue to work towards improving the performance of the business and I think as we said that the quarter was – I think it's going to mark a turning point and we are optimistic about that, about the sustainability of that and about our ability to move forward. We have continued to work on operating efficiency, where we've reduced our cost so as prices rise and as they continue to rise, the leveraged benefit for us will be very significant. So we thank you with that and now we will go back to it. Appreciate your time and your interest.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's program. And you may all disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.