Earnings Labs

Tronox Holdings plc (TROX)

Q1 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, May 7, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Tronox Limited Q1 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to VP-Investor Relations, Mr. Brennen Arndt. Sir, you may begin.

Brennen Arndt - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you. And welcome everyone to Tronox Limited's first quarter 2015 conference call and webcast. With me today are Tom Casey, Chairman and CEO; who will review of first quarter performance; and Kathy Harper, Senior Vice President and CFO, who will report on our financial position. Tom will conclude our remarks with summary comments and then we'll take your questions. We will be using slides this morning as we move through the conference call. Those of you listening by Internet broadcast through our website should already have them, and for those of you listening by telephone, if you haven't already done so, you can access them on our website at tronox.com. Let me begin with a reminder that our discussion today will include certain statements that are forward-looking and subject to various risks and uncertainties including, but not limited to, the specific factors summarized in our 2014 Form 10-K and other SEC filings. This information represents our best judgment based on today's information. However, actual results may vary based on these risks and uncertainties. The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. During the conference call, we will refer to certain non-U.S. GAAP financial terms that we use in the management of our business, including EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted earnings per diluted share. EBITDA represents net income before net interest expense, income tax, and depreciation, depletion and amortization expense. Adjusted EBITDA represents EBITDA as further adjusted for non-cash, unusual and non-recurring items. Adjusted earnings per diluted share represents EPS adjusted for unusual or non-recurring items on a fully diluted basis. A reconciliation is provided in our earnings release. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Tom Casey. Tom? Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you very much, Brennen…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from John Roberts of UBS. Your line is now open.

John E. Roberts - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Good morning. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning.

John E. Roberts - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

You haven't been selling TiO2 ore to external customers for a while. Will ore prices have to recover back to the point they were at when you stopped selling externally in order for you to resume? So I'm thinking that would say that it could be some time since ore prices have declined quite a bit in the market, or is there something else that will determine when you get back into the external ore sales? Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: We are back in the external ore sales business in the first quarter. We went back in the first part of this year. And we have, in fact, had a couple of significant contracts that we signed in the first quarter at prices that obviously we found acceptable.

John E. Roberts - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. So since prices are much lower now than when you stopped, how do we sort of reconcile that? Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: They're not much lower, I don't think. They were somewhat lower in the first quarter than they had been in the preceding quarters, $730 against $777, for example. The contracts – some of the contracts that we signed in the first quarter were large volume and attractively priced. So that's part of the explanation, and part of the explanation is that we simply decided that this is where the market was now and we were going to participate in it. Other slag manufacturers have closed their production facilities too, so that also had something to do with it.

John E. Roberts - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. I'll get back in the queue. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Hassan Ahmed of Alembic Global. Your line is now open.

Hassan I. Ahmed - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Analyst

Good morning, Tom. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Hi, Hassan.

Hassan I. Ahmed - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Analyst

Question around pricing. You talked about it a bit in the call earlier. Obviously titanium dioxide pricing continues to come under pressure, and one of the comments you made was that obviously you are not going see any buoyancy in TiO2 till you start seeing sort of signs of stability or call it positive inflection in ore prices. So are we there yet? Are ore prices – have they troughed out in your view? Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Well, as I said, I think the second quarter and third quarter will tell. I mean, we – there has been a fair amount of stability on ore – on high-grade feedstock prices which is a different market than ilmenite. You have to remember that the amount of production of ilmenite and the amount of production, and particularly the rate of growth of production in high-grade feedstocks is very different. So we've seen some closure of production facilities on the high-grade front and we have reason to think that the market there is relatively stable and we think that it might trend up. That's what we have been saying. We've also said that we'll know better in the second quarter and third quarters when the demand is higher. So, we think – we're presuming for the balance of the year, to be honest, that the market is relatively stable, but we think that there's a possibility that it will turn up in the second half.

Hassan I. Ahmed - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Analyst

Fair enough. And changing gears a bit, early days as far as the Alkali business goes; you've had it now in the mix for call it a month. When you announced the acquisition, you talked about a 12-month accretion of around $0.50 a share. Are you feeling comfortable with that number, as you look at sort of the early sort of business conditions and the like? Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yes.

Hassan I. Ahmed - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Analyst

You are. Okay. Thanks so much, Tom. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Okay.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Des Kilalea of RBC. Your line is now open.

Des Kilalea - RBC Europe Ltd.

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning, everybody. Just a question relating to that CP slag, if I may. Have you now sold out all the CP slag that you held back when prices weren't suitable? And I wonder if you can comment on we're starting to hear talk of some consolidation in the Chinese pigment business, if you've any evidence to kind of share with us on if there is consolidation taking place, because that might perhaps help stabilize prices. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: With respect to have we sold out all of the inventory that we built up on slag, no. The answer to that question is no, because we're taking one of the furnaces down this year and so one of the factors, for maintenance – for scheduled maintenance. So, one of the factors that led to our decision last year was not only was the price unacceptable to us, but also we knew that building inventory was not going to be as difficult as it might otherwise be because we would be in a non-producing mode for 25% of our facilities this year. So, again, we don't – we are not worried terribly much about carrying a huge excess slag inventory for a long period of time. With respect to China, I think I would say two things. One, we are involved ourselves – and I suspect this is true of others, in a variety of conversations with a variety of people. And it is very clear to me from those conversations that consolidation is an important goal of the participants in the Chinese market who view themselves as long-term players in that market, so the major participants in the Chinese market. I am told – and I, of course, haven't seen the actually legal documents, but I am told that Henan Billions and Sichuan Lomon, both of who are major participants in that market have suspended trading, that Henan Billions trades on the, I think the Shenzhen market and has suspended trading to announce a merger between the two of them. That is clearly a major step towards consolidation in the Chinese market as I think the goal of that entity will be not only to consolidate itself, but to consolidate other smaller enterprises, and I suspect that it may lead to other cop consolidation in that market. So I think that's happening. I think obviously Huntsman announced that after the Rockwood acquisition that it was going to reduce, I think 13% of the European production. We know that Iluka is continuing to pursue Kenmare and it looks like something may happen there. There is reduction in production at Rio. So I think that supply is tightening around the world and we expect that the demand/supply ratio, the balance will come back into a more positive form.

Des Kilalea - RBC Europe Ltd.

Analyst

Thanks very much. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Okay, Des.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Edlain Rodriguez of UBS. Your line is now open.

Edlain Rodriguez - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning guys. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning.

Edlain Rodriguez - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Tom, first, I mean, you had stopped selling to external clients in hoping that would support prices, but that didn't seem to be the case because oil prices continue to move down somewhat. So now in TiO2 we're still seeing prices coming down and one solution for that is for capacity curtailment. So how – and you've talked about, maybe in the second half of the year to see some price increases. Like, how quickly will that have to happen? Because we are already in May and the seasonally strong period is essentially now, so when would you have to see prices moving up in this seasonally strong period for demand for TiO2? Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: That's a good question. First, let's talk about the question of entering the slag sales market. As we reported that we purchased slag this quarter at an average – we purchased feedstocks at an average price of $730 compared to – I think, $777 was the prior quarter. So, they did soften, but as I said in the response, I think, to John Roberts' question, that some of the contracts we signed were actually better than that number, number one. And number two, it's always a matter of compared to what? If it's down, would have gone down further if we hadn't come out of the market, if Rio Tinto hadn't closed a couple of its furnaces, if they hadn't slowed down the UGS production facility in Canada. So, objectively perhaps it didn't result in a skyrocketing slag price, but we think it resulted in improvement in the market. We think that the second quarter of 2014 was the low point in high-grade feedstock prices, and in fact that prices in this quarter and in the second half…

Edlain Rodriguez - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

A quick follow-up. I mean, Mineral Sands results were a little better than expected and I think part of it was the volume strength we saw. But a good chunk of that went into the Pigment segment, so there was a lot of internal (36:53) transfer from Mineral Sands to Pigment. Are you setting up for – are you seeing significant demand in Pigment – for Pigment to be buying so much from Mineral Sands right now? Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Well, we bought what we need. We don't buy ahead. So, I think if we're typical of everybody else, then you'll see the normal annual fluctuations, it goes up – we've talked about it many times. The first quarter and the fourth quarters in the Pigment business are relatively low in terms of sales, but not low in terms of production because you're building up capacity to sell into the industry during the second quarter and third quarters which are relatively high. So I don't see much of a difference from the annual fluctuation quarter-to-quarter that we would normally expect in terms of pattern.

Edlain Rodriguez - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Okay.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of James Finnerty of Citi. Your line is now open.

James P. Finnerty - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Hi. Good morning. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Morning.

James P. Finnerty - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Looking forward on soda ash, I saw an article the other day stating that there was a legislator that putting forward a bill to lower royalties on soda ash produced on federal lands. I was just curious what percentage of U.S. production is on federal lands. Is any of Tronox's assets located on federal lands? Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: It varies. I have an estimate from the due-diligence process that if – let me give a little bit of background just for people who may not be as familiar as James might be. There's a federal royalty charged on extraction from federal lands in Wyoming at the trona mine. The trona mine is a checkerboard. The way it's organized legally in ownership, it's a checkerboard of – I think it's mile – one square mile checkers, if you will, or spaces, that are owned either by the federal government, by the state government or by private parties. And so what your liability in any given year is from the federal royalty is going to vary depending on what your mine plan is. That is, are you mining in federal land this year or state land or private land? So our assessment during due-diligence was that the mining activity in Wyoming will sort of be less than – I don't know about less than average, but not exclusively in federal lands. And the difference between a 6% royalty rate, which is kind of the default level, and a 4% royalty rate, which is where it is today, is somewhere between – will be somewhere between $1 million and $1.5 million a year in incremental royalty expense, again, given our mining plan for the next several years. The legislation that was referred to is legislation that would reduce the royalty to 2%. It was introduced by a congressman from California who has trona mining activity in his district. As with all political processes, it's hard to predict precisely when it might happen or even the outcome of it. The last time I think Congress did reduce the royalty rate from 6% to 4%; that took several years for the House and the Senate to finally work their way through. So I don't exactly know the outcome. The difference between 6% and 4% to us for the next several years is going to be maybe $1 million to $1.5 million.

James P. Finnerty - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Thanks for clarifying that. It was very helpful. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Richard Hatch of RBC. Your line is now open.

Richard Hatch - Valley Mental Health, Inc.

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning, all. Just one for Kathy, I noticed in the cash flow statement you've got, working capital outflows this quarter. I just wonder whether you can just expand a bit more on that and what we can expect to see, whether that will reverse in Q2. Thanks. Katherine Carolyn Harper - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Sure. We definitely had an increase in receivables and a drop in payables. The AR change is a seasonal anomaly; same thing happened in the first quarter of last year, so I absolutely expect that to improve. And AP, again, I think is just a – again is a flow of funds tied to the nature of the business we're doing. It was a use of cash, (41:38) AP of $83 million in the quarter, which is pretty significant. And yes we expect, we expect to pull that back in line. Not sure we'll get it all worked through in the second quarter, but it will definitely come back in line.

Richard Hatch - Valley Mental Health, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of John Roberts of UBS. Your line is now open.

John E. Roberts - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Thank you. There's an expansion coming up in Mexico. Do you think the pre-marketing of that output has contributed to the incremental weakness in pricing? And, if so, could that pricing weakness abate once that material is placed in the market? Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yes.

John E. Roberts - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. And then let me ask second, a follow-up. There is a lot of U.S. TiO2 export to Europe right now, or at least there was before currency moved. Do you think the currency swing has caused some of that product to back up into the U.S. on the margin and could that also be contributing to the weakness? Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yes.

John E. Roberts - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Care to elaborate at all? Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: You asked a very good question, it was very direct, and I tried to give you a direct answer. I think that the data – the trade data shows that European, imports from Europe into United States are somewhere around 4,000 tons per month. And they have increased about 1,000 tons per month over the last – the recent month period. Those are not phenomenal numbers. I think the U.S. market is somewhere over a million tons in production – I mean, in demand. So, I don't think it's a material contributing factor, to be perfectly honest. But I think to the extent there were exports out of the U.S. in into Europe, those are much more difficult. Although, I would – as I said in the main statement, our sales into Europe were relatively strong and every month in the first quarter our sales in Europe were higher than they were the preceding month. Now we have Botlek, which is in the Netherlands and so most of our European sales are going to be supplied out of a European facility. But we were surprised to be a little honest at the relative strength of the European market.

John E. Roberts - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

That concludes today's question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back to Chairman and CEO, Mr. Tom Casey for any further remarks. Thomas J. Casey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you very much, operator, and thank all of you for your interest. We are working through this. As we said we think we have a variety of sources of value creation here. We're pursuing them. We'll continue to pursue them and we appreciate your interest and we'll talk to you next quarter. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes today's program. You may all disconnect. Everyone have a great day. Katherine Carolyn Harper - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Thank you.