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Trinity Industries, Inc. (TRN)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 19, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Trinity Industries, Inc. Fourth Quarter Results Conference Call. Currently all phone lines are in a listen-only mode. Later, there'll be an opportunity to ask questions during a question-and-answer session. Please be advised, today's program maybe recorded. Before we get started, let me remind you that today's conference call contains forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and includes statements as to estimates, expectations, intentions, and predictions of future financial performance. Statements that are not historical facts are forward-looking. Participants are directed to Trinity's Form 10-K and other SEC filings for a description of certain of the business issues and risks, a change in any of which could cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. It is now my pleasure to turn the program over to Ms. Gail Peck. You may begin. Gail M. Peck - Treasurer & Vice President of Finance: Thank you, Aaron. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Trinity Industries' fourth quarter 2015 results conference call. I'm Gail Peck, Vice President, Finance and Treasurer of Trinity. Thank you for joining us today. Similar to the format we have used on our recent earnings call, we will begin with an update on the Highway Products litigation matter. We will then follow with our normal quarterly earnings conference call format. Today's speakers are Theis Rice, Senior Vice President and Chief Legal Officer; Tim Wallace, our Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President; Bill McWhirter, Senior Vice President and Group President of the Construction Products, Energy Equipment, and Inland Barge Groups; Steve Menzies, Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups; and James Perry, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Following their comments, we will…

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

Thank you, Bill, and good morning. The TrinityRail team completed another record quarter in terms of railcar deliveries, profit and operating margin, as well as its second consecutive year of record revenues, profit and railcar deliveries. In 2015, our Rail Group achieved a 20.9% operating profit margin on deliveries of 34,295 railcars. Our Leasing Group grew year-over-year revenue and profit from operations by 11% and 15%, respectively, while generating significant income and cash flow from the sales of these railcars through the railcar investment vehicle platform. TrinityRail's outstanding performance reflects the strength of our integrated railcar manufacturing, leasing, and services business model. Our operating and financial flexibility and leading market position give us confidence, we can effectively adapt to rapidly changing market conditions. The weakness in the industrial sector of the economy, along with declining railcar loadings, improved rail cycle times, and increasing numbers of railcars and storage is creating a challenging set of market dynamics. We are aligning our production footprint to a lower rate of production, while meeting our scheduled railcar backlog delivery requirements. Our Rail Group received 2,455 orders during the fourth quarter. The orders we receive represent a mix of tank cars, covered hoppers, flat cars, and autoracks. Industry orders for the fourth quarter affirmed a weaker demand trend that began in the third quarter. In total, more than 53,000 orders were placed in 2015, a healthy level by historical standards. However, industry orders in the second half of 2015 declined approximately 50% compared to the level of orders in the first half of 2015, indicating a significant shift toward a weakening demand trend. First quarter 2016 inquiry levels continue at a weakened level. We are seeing pockets of demand, however, the level of automotive related activity remains favorable. The outlook of new petrochemical capacity coming…

Operator

Operator

Certainly. And we can take our first question from Matt Elkott with Cowen & Company. Your line is open. Matt Elkott - Cowen & Co. LLC: Good morning. Thank you for taking my question Timothy R. Wallace - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning. Matt Elkott - Cowen & Co. LLC: I want you guys to help me understand, dig deeper into the guidance here. I know you guided for a 20% decline in deliveries in 2016, which is I don't think anyone was expecting flat deliveries or up deliveries, maybe slightly worse than expectation, but it's in line with the industry. But your margin assumption for the Rail Group is almost 600 basis points deterioration in the operating income. And then the midpoint of the EPS is about 57% down from 2015. So there seems to be discrepancy between the delivery decline and the earnings and margin decline. Can you put more color into why margins are going to be so pressured?

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

Sure, Matt. This is Steve. I'll start with the answer. Margin is ultimately a reflection of the product mix produced in the quarter and the productivity we're able to achieve through operational efficiencies. We are experiencing a significant shift in our product mix with the expected railcar deliveries in 2016. Our margin guidance includes the costs and efficiencies associated with the aligning a smaller production footprint with lower demand. And we also are assuming weaker market prices on unsold railcar production slots. While down from our most recent margin performance, our current projections for 2016 margins compare quite favorably to prior peak margins in 2007 and 2008. For example, our 2007 annual margin was 14.6% at approximately the same level of production. (37:24) Timothy R. Wallace - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: The decline in shipments?

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

And decline in shipments, yes, from the prior year. Matt Elkott - Cowen & Co. LLC: All right. So, now that you guys have set the bar – reset the bar much lower for 2016, I know you – this is the first time you gave guidance, but I think most people are expecting a bigger EPS number, but the bar has been reset. As you kind of look out to 2017, is 2016 looking now more like the year where pricing bottoms out, because a lot of the weakness in the level of orders may be stemming from kind of wait and see attitude by customers, because of all the uncertainty in the industrial markets. So should we look for 2016 for – 2016 may being kind of the bottom for pricing, which could spur some opportunistic buying from large investors? And what does that mean for deliveries in 2017? Does this mean that we're not going to see a decline or not as big of a decline in deliveries in 2017 off of this lower number?

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

This is Steve again, it's really difficult to start to talk about 2017. Again, we're looking at macroeconomic environment with significantly lower railcar loadings, lower industrial output, higher U.S. dollar, all impacting our business, and typically, when those – a large number of idle railcars are in storage, you have to wait for those railcars to be absorbed in the system before we see any meaningful increase in demand for new railcars and maybe pricing traction associated with that market. With that said, as I mentioned in my comments there are several pockets of our markets that show good demand. And we'll concentrate and focus on those, but it's really difficult to talk about 2017 this early in 2016. Matt Elkott - Cowen & Co. LLC: Okay. Fair enough. And then just one last question. What are – do you have certain macro assumptions that are – that your guidance for 2016 is based on as far as oil prices, maybe rail traffic? And when you were doing your forecast for 2016, did you have multiple scenarios, and if so did you pick the kind of average scenario, did you pick the more conservative scenario for your guidance?

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

Matt, Steve again. I think we've said that our guidance as well as our plans assume no material improvement in the economic circumstances that we're under right now. So we'll continue to monitor those economic drivers for our business and adjust our plans as those drivers might change over the course of the year. Matt Elkott - Cowen & Co. LLC: Okay. Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

And we will take our next question from Allison Poliniak with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Allison A. Poliniak-Cusic - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Hi, guys. Good morning. Timothy R. Wallace - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning.

Allison A. Poliniak-Cusic - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Going back to that Rail Group margin, I think mix and pricing and sort of that reduction of footprint were highlighted. Anyway to rank those and obviously, as everything mix it sounds like is most important maybe. And sort of the cadence as we go through 2016, I mean, are we substantially dropping in Q1 or do we sort of trend back or below that sort of year-end number?

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

Yeah. Good morning, Allison. This is Steve. Clearly, the significant shift in our product mix, and the pricing associated with that product mix is having the biggest impact on our decline in margins. I think, we would expect that our cadence over the course of 2016, both our deliveries and margins will probably be better in the first half than it will in the second half.

Allison A. Poliniak-Cusic - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Okay. That's helpful. And then just touching on the secondary market, I know you guys talked about sort of you guys selling equipment, but thoughts maybe from history, opportunities maybe for you guys to buy some equipment at some of these newer players in the leasing market besides they really don't want to be here anymore. I mean, how does that sort of play out in your mind?

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

Sure, Allison. Steve again, we have been active in acquiring railcars in the secondary market as an important component of our RIV platform to show investors, our interest in acquiring those cars, along with cars that we produced new. With the amount of institutional capital and active participants in the market, it is highly competitive. And we want to be disciplined in the railcars that we acquired to put into our RIV platform.

Allison A. Poliniak-Cusic - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Sure. And then I guess, James, this one is for you, $2 billion of liquidity, you touched a little bit on share repurchases, but maybe talks on capital deployment here in this environment, do you think the properties start becoming more attractive through year-to-year, maybe you layout your priorities for 2016? James E. Perry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Allison, thanks. This is James. I appreciate you being on the call today. In terms of priorities, we certainly maintained a strong balance sheet, strong liquidity, and as Tim mentioned, as we go through down cycles, we've strengthened the company through strategic investments. As I said, we'll look at organic opportunities through building our businesses from within, acquisition opportunities as we look at the pipeline evaluations of companies that would add to our diversified industrial portfolio, enhance our shareholder value through that. And then as we've talked about, we've historically looked at share repurchases as a component of that as well. So we're not able to provide any specific guidelines we have or outline what our plans out for the year, but we really look at this as an all the above type strategy as opportunities for us as we look at different opportunities and valuations as we have those conversations with our board of directors.

Allison A. Poliniak-Cusic - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Great. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Operator

And we can take our next question from Justin Long with Stephens. Your line is open.

Justin Long - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open.

Thanks, and good morning. So, you mentioned about 15% of your lease fleet is renewing this year, but could you talk about the assumption that you have baked into the guidance in terms of the change in renewal rates and utilization as well? Timothy R. Wallace - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Steve?

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

Yeah. Justin, this is Steve. Well, first of all our guidance does include our assumptions for renewal percentages as well as lease rates. And no, there's no question that there's downward pressure on lease rates given the number of available cars in certain markets. And we would expect utilization could be adversely affected as well. We've been very successful historically maintaining high fleet utilization in our business. We are also be adding a number of fully utilized cars. So I would expect that we'll have a reasonable year as far as utilization is concerned.

Justin Long - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open.

Okay. And in terms of renewal rate change, is there any way you could speak to that in terms of the general magnitude, I know it varies by car types, so it's a tough question?

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

It is, Justin, but our expirations are diversified amongst the number of different markets and car types. So, we don't have any specific industry concentrations that would concern me. And I believe our sales and marketing team would be successful in remarketing our lease renewals.

Justin Long - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open.

And Steve, you have a fairly elaborate business planning process that you go through in order to identify the cars that are coming up for renewals, you make assumptions of what you think the renewals are going to be, and those all get incorporated into the guidance that we provide.

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

Yeah, we do Tim (sic) [Justin] (45:38) – we really do a bottoms-up analysis on our lease renewal. We really look at each individual car and each individual rider and do our prognostications, so we don't make general macro assumptions in our lease renewals that falls into our forecast, we really do it very deep dive on a car-by-car, lease-by-lease basis.

Justin Long - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open.

Okay, great. That's helpful. Secondly, one of the questions that have come up a lot in this environment is the potential for residual value risk for the railcar lessors, especially when you look at the tank car fleet. I'm just curious do you see this as a potential headwind? Or is your residual value assumption so low that it really won't be an issue?

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

Steve again, Justin, interesting question. I think it's so easy for us to be influenced by near-term economic conditions. But we're talking about railcars that we expect to have 35-year life, 40-year life, and perhaps even 50-year life. So, we really look at these assets over a much longer-term and I think we're comfortable with the residual positions we've taken in our lease fleet.

Justin Long - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open.

Okay, great. I'll leave it at that. Thanks for the time today.

Operator

Operator

And we can take our next question from Gordon Johnson with Axiom Capital Management. Your line is now open.

Gordon Johnson - Axiom Capital Management, Inc.

Analyst · Axiom Capital Management. Your line is now open.

Thanks for taking my question. Good morning. Timothy R. Wallace - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning.

Gordon Johnson - Axiom Capital Management, Inc.

Analyst · Axiom Capital Management. Your line is now open.

So, first, I guess with respect to the Element deal in 2013, I thought that the guarantee was $2 billion in sales through the end of 2015. That looks like roughly $133 million worth of lease railcars are sold in Q4 when we thought the number was going to be $400 million. Are we thinking about that right? Is that just a push out? Can you guys help us understand that? James E. Perry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Gordon, this is James. When we announced the alliance in late 2013 we said that through 2015 we were looking at about $2 billion. I think it's strong to call that a commitment on either side. From that perspective, we were a little short to the $2 billion, but we in the fourth quarter announced a new $1 billion agreement over the next several years. So that's very fluid in our relationship with Element. And looking at that is good dialogue.

Gordon Johnson - Axiom Capital Management, Inc.

Analyst · Axiom Capital Management. Your line is now open.

Okay. That's helpful. And then I guess with respect to your shipment guidance, 27,000 cars assuming the market share at 40% that's just roughly 17,000 cars for the industry. If we look at 17,000 cars per quarter rather for the industry, if you look at the last down cycle, I guess shipments of cars averaged about 5,400 (48:19) cars, that's in 2009. So clearly, maybe they don't get as bad as 2009, but shouldn't the guidance be slightly worse than you guys are projecting or are we thinking about that incorrectly?

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

Gordon, this is Steve. I think the difference in your comparison is the backlog when we entered previous downturns. We did not have the extended backlog that we currently have today. And so I think the planning and the insights that we have in the 2016 are better than what we had at that time. James E. Perry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: And Gordon, this is James. As Steve mentioned our 27,000, about 90% of that is already in our current backlog, out of the total 49,000 in our backlog.

Gordon Johnson - Axiom Capital Management, Inc.

Analyst · Axiom Capital Management. Your line is now open.

Okay. That's helpful. And then lastly just looking at the lease business the margin this quarter, I think a little weaker than we expected. Was that due to maintenance expense? And was that due to the retrofit of the tank cars? And if so, how long does that take? And thanks, again for the questions, guys. Good luck.

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

Gordon, thanks. This is Steve. Maintenance expense in our lease fleet isn't necessarily smooth over quarters. And then particularly, in the fourth quarter, we probably incurred some initial expenses and trying to make sure that annual regulatory compliance is completed. So that may have an inordinate influence on maintenance expense in any one quarter.

Operator

Operator

And we can take our next question from Bascome Majors with Susquehanna. Your line is open.

Bascome Majors - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst · Susquehanna. Your line is open.

Good morning. So, on your call in October, you said about 85% of the 27,000 cars that you're expecting to deliver this year. They're already in the backlog. And I would assume that there was still very attractive pricing on most of what you build in that 85%. And on the call today, you're pretty candid about the challenges with pricing that you already took in 4Q, and the slots are still opened to be ordered for next year, but only 15% of what you're going to deliver, it would seem that the pricing and the margins on those orders must have fallen really dramatically to get you to the outlook that you provided on margins here. So it's a longwinded way to kind of get into – to how competitive is pricing now? Are we looking at breakeven like levels on some of the orders that are being placed today? Or is that just getting too dire?

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

Yeah, Bascome, it's Steve. First of all, I think I said 80% of our 2016 production was in our backlog during our last conference call. That is now 90%. I would tell you that pricing is extremely competitive in the marketplace. Some of our competitors have much less backlog than we have, working very hard and the pricing to fuel their production capacity during the year. So, the orders we took in the fourth quarter had – I would say lesser margins than what we have in our backlog. And again, we have forecast that our unsold production plants will also be a weak margin.

Bascome Majors - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst · Susquehanna. Your line is open.

I mean, is the delta so big that we can be talking single-digit margins on some of the stuff that's being ordered today?

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

I don't know that I can be that specific, but also keep in mind, I'm highlighting a very significant shift in our product mix for 2016, a very significant shift.

Bascome Majors - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst · Susquehanna. Your line is open.

Okay. Understood, thanks for the color there. Another margin question here, how much of the decline we're looking at in your rail margins for 2016? Are part of the cost of aligning the production with lower demand? So this question specifically, trying to dig out what kind of restructuring type costs could be in there or other cost related to workforce adjustments that may not repeat once capacity gets level with demand?

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

Sure, Bascome, Steve again. The significant reduction in our margins from 2015 and 2016 is related to pricing and product mix. Certainly, we have costs associated with rightsizing our production foot print to meet a lower level of demand. And again, our teams are very adapt in how we handle labor issues and utilizing our facilities efficiently.

Bascome Majors - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst · Susquehanna. Your line is open.

Okay. And following-up on our earlier question on the cadence of the margins, I mean you closed out 4Q 2015 with around 23% in the Rail Group, maybe get a 15% for full year 2016 in sequentially declining market, which you implied to the other question. And it feels like you'd have to start the year close to 20% and end it closer to 10% or even below. And that's such a wide delta in margins in such a short amount of time. Are we thinking about that right, is that spread too wide or would you expect to kind of a tighter range around 15% that you're guiding throughout the year on a quarter-to-quarter basis? James E. Perry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Bascome, this is James. Yeah. We're not at this time giving detailed pricing. Steve talked about the cadence of deliveries stepping down. So we wouldn't comment on the specific quarterly margins that they were projecting at this time.

Bascome Majors - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst · Susquehanna. Your line is open.

Okay. One more on margin and then I'll run. Looking at the implied margin and what you're eliminating. I know there is always a bit of a differential between that and what you're reporting for the entire Rail Group, but the spread I think was about four points or five points higher margin in your eliminations than what you're guiding for the Rail segment as a whole. What's driving that? James E. Perry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah, Bascome. This is James. It can be a number of things, primarily it's product mix. The cars that are in our lease backlog versus the manufacturing backlog, the external direct customers without leases. There are certain costs that don't come through with the transferred to the leasing company with that market pricing, but primarily is the mix on pricing of the specific cars that are currently identified to go to our leasing company.

Bascome Majors - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst · Susquehanna. Your line is open.

Understood. Thanks for the time this morning, guys. James E. Perry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we will take our next question from Art Hatfield with Raymond James. Your line is open. Art W. Hatfield - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: Hi. Thanks for taking the time this morning. Hi, Steve, you had a lot of questions thrown at you about pricing and margin, but if I could just ask one last one regarding that, obviously pricing and margin contend to be cyclical in this business. But would you say the environment is rational or irrational at this point in time with regards to what competitors are doing?

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

I think, rationale is in the eye of the beholder. Isn't it? Art W. Hatfield - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: Yes. No, absolutely, but I feel that you guys have always been very rational in how you view things, so your comment should be well taken actually?

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

Sure, well, I mean, clearly we've got a period of weaker demand. I think the rationality scale probably changes based upon the type of backlog you have as the manufacturer. So hopefully we will continue to be disciplined and rational in our approach to the marketplace given our backlogs. Art W. Hatfield - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: Okay. That's helpful. A quick question on the RIV platform. I mean, when you talk to institutional investors about the opportunities here, what are they looking for, how do they view the platform, are they indifferent to assets, are they just very focused on the type of yield that they can accrue over time? How do – and I ask that, so that I can think about what their decision making process is in allocating capital with this type of investments.

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

Yeah, thanks, really good question, I appreciate you're focusing on the RIV platform. I think institutional investors, first and foremost, do have their yield requirements, they're looking at this asset class and how it fits in their overall stack of different types of investments. They really like the long-term nature of these assets and I mentioned the inflationary hedge component of the nature of these assets as well. I think the other critical components they're looking at is diversification. They want to make sure they have a diversified portfolio and so Trinity with our broad product line is able to provide that type of asset diversification in a lease railcar portfolio. I think the other thing they're looking at is the quality of the servicer, the quality of the manager, someone who has, as I mentioned greater degree of capabilities, which from engineering through servicing the railcars and all points in between. I think we've established that TrinityRails are a premier provider of those services. And I guess, to add, they want to have confidence in our ability to be able to market and remarket the railcars over the long-term life of these assets. And we've clearly demonstrated a strong capability in our field sales organization to maintain high-fleet utilization for these type of assets. Art W. Hatfield - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: That's very helpful. When you – when I – when we think, and I know it's a small portion of kind of – or a small number in the grand scheme of things. But does management fee vary by potential investor based on what they ask you to do or if they can take on any of the stuff themselves?

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

Good question. We're pretty disciplined in the services that we're offering. I think our institutional investors see the value we provide in the broad array of services that we provide. And I think the fees that we charge are – reflect the value that we provide and the service we provide. Art W. Hatfield - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: Great. Thank you. Last question, and it's kind of a big picture question and that – and I'm asking everybody I can. And I really appreciate your thoughts on this. I respect your knowledge of the industry and kind of how you see these cycles and being an observer from the outside, sometimes it's tough to see what's really going on, but as I sit back and look at the turn in direction here and where this down cycle may settle out. I go back and think about the – having been an observer of three or four of these cycles. One of the things that strikes me as we kind of enter this period, we're probably seeing an end of a global commodity super cycle, and that's having, going to have an effect on rail volumes. Additionally, we have this issue here in the U.S. of secular decline in coal. And over the long haul, that may drive better asset productivity, better utilization of assets within the rail network. Just – I'd like to get your thoughts on how to think about this as we move forward and how these changing dynamics could change the demand within your industry and what may or may not need to occur within the industry to make things a little bit more matched, I guess as we go over time from a supply demand standpoint and maybe get some players who maybe have…

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

Well, yes, more specific to rail, I agree everything Tim said there. It's not only the commodity super cycle we enjoyed, but right now we're also suffering from the value of the U.S. dollar, and those things aren't going to stay in the position they are forever. When we had the boom in ethanol demand, I'm not sure anybody really saw that coming in 2004 and 2005. And I don't think anybody forecasted the shale boom when we were in the doldrums in 2009 and 2010. So what's the next big driver's going to be for demand for railcars, may not be visible to us today, but as Tim said, we stay very, very close to our customers. We're adept at managing through these type of cycles. And I'm confident that over the long-term, we'll be very successful. Timothy R. Wallace - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Bill, do you have anything to add? William A. McWhirter - Group President-Construction Products & Senior VP: I would echo, Steve's, comments and say that certainly many of the products that we sell to our customers are large durable goods that can be deferred for a period of time, but that builds up demand ultimately. And I think you're seeing just some general uncertainty in the market where companies are reducing their CapEx budgets for a period of time. And I think ultimately that doesn't mean they don't need the product, but just means they don't need the product necessarily today. And they don't want to take that liquidity off their balance sheet at this point in time.

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

No. That's a really good point, Bill, and something we haven't talked about today is we still have an aging North American rail fleet that will require replacement over time. And so we'll always be well positioned to work with our customers in that regard, still looking after that for new drivers of growth, but you do have an aging replacement opportunity that I think that is good for our business too. Timothy R. Wallace - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yes. And we are well suited to serve our customers' needs for replacement as well as be partners with them when they're going to expand and be able to move with them. And our manufacturing flexibility is designed to take advantage of opportunities when growth is there as well as, while like Bill was saying his wind power production right now is at capacity based on his current allocation. But if he gets some demand that has been spurred from the new legislation that was passed and the production tax credit then we can easily convert some of our facilities to move in that direction. James, do you have anything to offer? James E. Perry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: No, I think, Art, your question is a very big picture one and the good thing is we see the big picture in talking to the customers. We certainly watch the macroeconomic factors, but we have a much finer lens in having those day-to-day conversations. Art W. Hatfield - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: I think all your comments and how you approach it was very, very helpful and I appreciate the transparency and candor in a difficult environment that you offered us today. Thanks. James E. Perry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Thank you, Art. Timothy R. Wallace - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we can take our next question from Matt Brooklier with Longbow Research. Your line is open.

Matt S. Brooklier - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research. Your line is open.

Hey, thanks, good morning. I'll try to be quick here. Are you providing any color in terms of your expectations for Element sales in 2016? James E. Perry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Matt, this is James. We're not breaking down the sales of RIVs other than $500 million in total, we're not providing allocations or where those railcars may go.

Matt S. Brooklier - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research. Your line is open.

Okay. Is it fair to assume though that the billion dollars, the extension, we should be thinking about that being spread out kind of ratably over the next four years, or is there a potential for some of that to get pushed out just given we're in a much more challenging environment currently. James E. Perry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah. Again Matt, this is James. Hard to – as I said we've not specifically identify the cars or the humps (66:29) for those cars, there are strong institutional investor demand, Elements among those of course. The $1 billion over four years gives us both flexibility and we'll see as we – as the year progresses, what our desires are and their desires are to match up cars that go to them and cars that go to other third parties including the new fund that we've talked about in our press release earlier today.

Matt S. Brooklier - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research. Your line is open.

Okay. That's helpful. And then my last question here, I'm trying to get a sense for how much of the margin headwind this year within railcar is a function of the cycle, i.e., building less tank cars and less sand cars and building more free cars and kind of the ASP and the mix there to how that changes and it's a natural margin headwind. And then how much of the margin headwind is potentially a function of shifting some of the backlog for these energy cars out further and maybe pulling forward some freight cars in the meanwhile just given current environment we're looking at currently?

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

Matt, I think I've said. This is Steve – a couple of times today that really the significant shift in our production mix and the margins associated with that production mix really is the big headwind in our margin decline. And I think that's much detail, we'll get into on that but that's – when I say a significant shift in mix I mean it's a very significant shift.

Matt S. Brooklier - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research. Your line is open.

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we can take our next question from Kristine Kubacki with Avondale Partners. Your line is open.

Kristine Kubacki - Avondale Partners LLC

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Your line is open.

Thank you for squeezing me in. I just wanted to piggyback on Art's question a little bit about RIV. I guess I am surprised that the secondary market is hanging in there so strong and you talked about that you had inquiries over the $500 million and I was just wondering what would keep you or prevent you from selling more cars at this point, is it a function of what the cars are actually in demand?

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

Well, thank you Kristine. This is Steve Menzies. We will evaluate opportunities to sell more railcars through our RIV platform beyond the $500 million we've talked about. Institutional investors, in my opinion, the conversations that we had with them are shunning financial instrument investments and really looking for hard assets like lease railcars. They like the asset class, they like the risk profile, and we're working with the number of institutions to continue to express an interest in aligning with our RIV platform. James E. Perry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Now, I think, Steve said it well, I think as Steve said part of it is the level of interest out there remains strong. We continue to balance our own portfolio needs with those of the third party investors. So we and our investors have diversified portfolios and as we look at the order volumes, our backlog and what's in our existing wholly-owned fleet, we're able to select cars, so be sure both of those portfolios and all of those with the investors who are well diversified. Timothy R. Wallace - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: This is Tim. We're in a strong position because we've got a large reservoir, when you take our backlog and our existing wholly-owned fleet to be able to select and choose from.

Kristine Kubacki - Avondale Partners LLC

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Your line is open.

Okay. That's helpful. And then my question – I know, you'll hate this on the margin, I guess, but I'm going to come out a little different way. Can you talk – can you just answer the question about the mix shift was so dramatic this year and then going back a quarter ago, it seems like we had a lot more visibility. And I guess I'm wondering is why the shift so dramatic, is it because car buyers have come back in and changed what car types? And can they renegotiate the price on that? Or are those energy cars or the tank cars that are getting pushed out, are they going to be eventually build as a tank car or so, how should we think about the backlog, is it more fluid than we all expected, I guess. James E. Perry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: And this is James. Kristine, I don't think it's fluidity as much. Steve talked about it in our last couple of conference calls that a lot of our crude oil tank cars specifically would pretty much to be out of the backlog by the end of 2015, that's the case. So that's one of the significant shift that he talks about as you're moving more from tank to freight and you're moving from those high value crude oil cars and certainly the pricing environment in the last two quarters. Your average sales price comes down and then on top of that the compounding effect of operational leverage coming down with a lower volumes as to the lower overall margins.

Kristine Kubacki - Avondale Partners LLC

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Your line is open.

Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you for squeezing me in. Timothy R. Wallace - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we can take our next question from Mike Baudendistel with Stifel. Your line is open. Mike J. Baudendistel - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Thank you. The eliminations you expect in 2016 related to leasing segment were a little bit higher than I was anticipating. I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about how much equipment you expect to put in your leasing fleet in 2016. And I know it's a little bit up in the year with RIV situations, or maybe if you could talk about how much of the 90% of the cars – 90% of the deliveries you have booked for 2016 are going to go into the lease fleet? James E. Perry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Sure. Mike, this is James. Thank you. Yeah, the guidance we gave was $1.1 billion of eliminations. So that would be the value of the cars going into the lease fleet. We had about a little more than that in the backlog for leasing at the end of the year. So the vast majority of that's in the backlog. We've talked about selling about $500 million from the lease fleet to RIV is how we have that guided right now. So that would add a net of $600 million of market value of railcars during the year. So, we would expect at this time for the fleet to grow based on that guidance. Mike J. Baudendistel - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: That's helpful. That's all I had. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we can take our next question from Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital. Your line is open.

Steve Barger - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital. Your line is open.

Hi. Thanks for sticking around guys. Just one quick one from me. You've been clear, you're projecting recent weaker demand trends through the rest of the year. I'm curious if you've booked any railcars or barges in the first six weeks of the year? Is there really any activity out there?

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

This is Steve. Steve, thanks for your questions. Yes. We have booked orders through the first six weeks of this year. William A. McWhirter - Group President-Construction Products & Senior VP: Yes, Steve, this is Bill. On the barge side, we have booked orders, although, I would say very few at this point in time.

Steve Barger - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital. Your line is open.

Super. And just one follow-up, for the orders that you are booking, are they for delivery in 2016?

D. Stephen Menzies - Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Groups

Management

This is Steve again. Yes. William A. McWhirter - Group President-Construction Products & Senior VP: And this is Bill. Yes as well.

Steve Barger - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital. Your line is open.

Okay. Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

And ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the program back over to Gail Peck for any closing remarks. Gail M. Peck - Treasurer & Vice President of Finance: Thank you, Aaron. That concludes today's conference call. A replay of this call will be available after 1 o'clock Eastern Standard Time today through midnight on February 26, 2016. The access number is 402-220-2686. Also, the replay will be available on the website located at www.trin.net. We look forward to visiting with you again on our next conference call. Thank you for joining us this morning.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's program. You may disconnect at any time.