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Trinity Industries, Inc. (TRN)

Q4 2013 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 20, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's fourth quarter results conference call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this call may be recorded. Today's conference call contains forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and include statements as to estimates, expectations, intentions and predictions of future financial performance. Statements that are not historical facts are forward-looking. Participants are directed to Trinity’s Form 10-K and other SEC filings for a description of certain of the business issues and risks, a change in any of which would cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Ms. Gail Peck. Please go ahead.

Gail M. Peck

Analyst

Thank you, Erica. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Trinity Industries fourth quarter 2013 results conference call. I'm Gail Peck, Vice President and Treasurer of Trinity. Thank you for joining us today. Following the introduction, you will hear from Tim Wallace, our Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President. After Tim, our business group leaders will provide overviews of the businesses within their respective groups. Our speakers are: Bill McWhirter, Senior Vice President and Group President of the Construction Products, Energy Equipment and Inland Barge Groups; and Steve Menzies, Senior Vice President and Group President of the Rail and Railcar Leasing Group. Following their comments, James Perry, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will provide the financial summary and guidance. We will then moved to the Q&A session. Mary Henderson, our Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, is also in the room with us today. I will now turn the call over to Tim Wallace for his comments.

Timothy R. Wallace

Analyst

Thank you, Gail, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased with our accomplishments and a strong financial results for the fourth quarter and for the entire year. We achieved a number of key financial milestones. During the quarter and the full year, our revenues, net income and EPS all reached new record levels. Our businesses are continuing to create value by leveraging their combined expertise, competencies and manufacturing capacity to produce their products. We are also making great progress in the business development area. We have a great deal of positive momentum occurring within our company. Our Rail Group generated strong financial results in the fourth quarter, reporting a record level of quarterly revenue and operating profit. I remain impressed with the group's ability to continue to improve its performance while converting manufacturing space, making line changeovers and increasing production levels. Our Railcar Leasing company delivered another quarter of solid results. In December, we announced a strategic alliance with Element Financial Corporation. Under the terms of this agreement, we are assisting Element to develop a diversified portfolio of up to $2 billion of leased railcars over a multiyear period. The agreement also provides for our leasing company to be the servicer of their railcar fleet. This alliance is consistent with our strategy to continue growing our leasing platform while maintaining ongoing relationship with our lessees. I'm pleased with the way our Inland Barge Group maintained consistent margins on a lower revenue run rate during the fourth quarter. The group illustrated its operational flexibility in 2013 by successfully converting a portion of its manufacturing capacity from dry cargo barges to tank barges. This conversion was a significant accomplishment. Our Construction Products Group is continuing to make good progress to improve its overall performance. We expect to realize benefits from the repositioning of…

William A. McWhirter

Analyst

Thank you, Tim, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased with our Inland Barge Group's fourth quarter results, which showed solid improvement over the third quarter of 2013 in large part due to our recent investment in our facilities. These investments enhanced our flexibility, allowing us to produce a more favorable product mix. During the fourth quarter, our barge group took orders totaling approximately $97 million, bringing the barge backlog to $430 million at the end of the year. Demand for hopper barges is still weak despite the relatively strong harvest last fall, which typically stimulates equipment purchases. We believe this is in part due to coal barges being converted to transport agriculture products. We are watching these demand drivers closely and are well positioned should a pick up in activity occur. Demand drivers for tank barge orders continues to be favorable. However, our customers are closely monitoring the absorption of new equipment into the marketplace. As upstream infrastructure investments are completed, we expect downstream markets to begin to expand, resulting in increased shipments of chemical and petrochemical commodities, which should have a positive effect on tank barge demand. For the full year of 2014, we currently expect a revenue run rate similar to 2013 and a slight decline in profit due to our planned production mix. We have a steady backlog of orders and our facilities are well positioned to respond to any additional changes in demand. Moving to our Construction Products Group. Revenue increased modestly due to acquisition-related volumes. Operating margin declined year-over-year to 6.2% from 8.5%, primarily due to weather-related issues. The first quarter of 2014 continues to be relatively slow due to poor weather conditions. In the fourth quarter, we acquired a galvanizing business located in San Antonio, Texas. This facility provides a full range of galvanizing…

D. Stephen Menzies

Analyst

Thank you, Bill. Good morning. I'm very pleased with the accomplishments of the TrinityRail team during the fourth quarter and throughout 2013. Our Rail Group reported its fourth consecutive quarter of record operating profit and our highest ever operating margin driven by a 17% increase in railcar shipments compared with the third quarter. Our Leasing Group continues to generate strong returns and contribute steady cash flows to the company, resulting from strong lease renewals, regrowth and our alliance with Element Financial. I continue to be encouraged with the way our North American industrial markets are developing and the resulting opportunities for TrinityRail. We are very pleased to have completed the formation of our $2 billion strategic alliance with Element Financial during the fourth quarter. Our alliance enhances our ability to continue growing our leasing platform in a capital efficient manner, while maintaining ongoing relationships with our commercial customers. Elements' desire to invest in leased railcars and the confidence they have placed in Trinity to originate and manage these assets is an exciting opportunity. Along with RIV 2013, the $1 billion railcar investment partnership we announced last May, these 2 transactions expand the funding relationships we have developed with institutional investors desiring to invest in portfolios of leased railcars. These lease funding alternatives, along with Trinity's strong balance sheet, increases our leasing capacity. Our overall leasing strategy has not changed. TrinityRail has developed -- was developed to offer comprehensive, integrated railcar products and service solutions to our customers, a one-stop shop business model, including leasing services. Our model has 2 key objectives: Providing a steady flow of equipment orders for our manufacturing operations, and generating a stable stream of earnings and cash flow for Trinity. Over the last 12 years, we have invested significant capital to grow our leased portfolio from…

James E. Perry

Analyst

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. Yesterday, we announced strong fourth quarter and full year 2013 financial results, reporting record revenues and earnings per share for both periods. During the quarter, we reported revenues of $1.3 billion and earnings of $1.44. Quarterly net income increased by more than 58% compared to last year, resulting in the most profitable quarter in Trinity's history. During the fourth quarter, we repurchased 639,000 shares of our common stock in the open market for a total cost of $34 million. For the full year, we repurchased approximately 2.5 million shares for a total cost of $108 million. The 15% increase in the quarterly dividend we announced in September became effective during the fourth quarter, bringing the total increase in the dividend during 2013 to 36%. The actions taken in 2013 reflect our ongoing commitment to return capital to our shareholders. The $2 billion strategic railcar lines that we formed with Element Financial during the fourth quarter was an important accomplishment for Trinity. The alliance enhances our flexibility to continue growing our leasing presence in a capital efficient manner while maintaining ongoing commercial relationships with our lessees. The capital generated through the alliance can be invested in our Railcar Leasing and Management Services platform, our portfolio of diversified industrial businesses or other investments that will enhance shareholder returns. Since we announced the agreement in December, Element has purchased $500 million of railcars from the lease fleet, generating earnings per share of approximately $1.12 to $1.22, of which $0.12 per share was recorded in the fourth quarter. During the next 12 months, we plan to deliver another $500 million of leased railcars to Element, primarily from our current leasing backlog. At this time, it is difficult to precisely project the exact timing and composition of each…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And we'll go first to the side of Steve Barger with Keybanc Capital.

Steve Barger - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

I think I'm going to just jump into the acquisitions first. As you mentioned, on a trailing 12-month basis, you've added almost $100 million. Without drilling down into each of the 3 deals, can you give us a general operating margin profile for those acquired properties, excluding onetime items or on a purely operational basis?

William A. McWhirter

Analyst

Yes, Steve, this is Bill. I think when we look at those operations from a margin perspective, they're probably relatively consistent with where you see our Energy Equipment Group today. We would hope longer term there's opportunity for margin expansion as we integrate the businesses, particularly the 2 cryogenics businesses as we put those together.

Steve Barger - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Should we be thinking there are other deals of this type to get scale in those specific applications? Or are those part of a broader product and service spectrum that you're trying to fill in to pursue a strategy?

Timothy R. Wallace

Analyst

Steve, this is Tim. I think the answer is yes to both of your questions. We like to focus on certain products that we're -- we think are adjacent to our businesses, like the cryogenic products. And then we also like to look for some newer ones, as well as we're going to be expanding some of our existing ones.

Steve Barger - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

All right. And how should we think about growth rates for those cryogenic companies? And I guess same question for Platinum. And if you can't talk about those properties specifically, can you help us think about the industry growth rates that you see?

Timothy R. Wallace

Analyst

James, do you want to take that?

James E. Perry

Analyst

Sure. Steve, this is James. I think it's a little early for us to forecast growth rates and potential we have. We certainly see a lot of potential in the cryogenic space, as well as the oilfield equipment space that Platinum gets us into, as well as the Canadian market that Platinum helps us enter in a bigger way as well. So again, a little too early to forecast that. This year's embedded in the guidance we provided. But as we seek more market opportunities and seek expansion opportunities, as we develop the enrichment between existing businesses as we have in these new businesses, we'll be able to provide that as we go forward.

Steve Barger - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

All right. And just one other and then I'll jump back in line. How much of this is reacting to or, I guess, anticipating requirements for companies where you already have a relationship in one of your other lines of business? And does that really help you kickstart growth here? Or are you more assembling capabilities to put together a service package or a product package that you can then take to market?

Timothy R. Wallace

Analyst

Bill?

William A. McWhirter

Analyst

Yes. Steve, I think when you look at our 2 acquisitions, they really complement each other well. One has strengths on the stainless steel side, another had strengths on the aluminum side. And so as we look forward, and particularly in the usage of LNG, we see a lot of applications. Certainly, there's been a fair amount of talk about the use of LNG through locomotives in the rail side. There's fair amount of talk in the marine business and the barge business as well. And so I think as we think broadly downstream for Trinity, we see a lot of opportunities in these business lines in the cryogenic technology. And so for us, it was getting the competencies together and then plotting a plan as we move forward.

Timothy R. Wallace

Analyst

Yes. And, Steve, this is Tim. We already are producing cryogenic tanks in Mexico serving that market for stationary tanks. So we really feel like there's a great domino effect associated with these acquisitions.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to the side of Allison Poliniak from Wells Fargo.

Allison Poliniak-Cusic - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

James, I just want to understand a little bit more your guidance range. And I know the uncertainty about that second tranche of Element coming through. Can we assume more of these are going to TILC through -- target level is going to TILC to, I just assume, a lower end of that guidance range? I'm just trying to think -- just see how I should think about that.

Timothy R. Wallace

Analyst

You're referring to our overall guidance range for the company or for the specific Element...

Allison Poliniak-Cusic - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

For the company specific, I guess either however you wanted to address it. I'm just trying to get a sense of -- I know it's hard for you guys to say yes now, but does that lower end assume more go to TILC versus Element?

Timothy R. Wallace

Analyst

Yes. I think what we said is in terms of the overall guidance range for the company, we always at this early point of the year try to give a pretty wide range and a sense of where we are. The guidances I gave for each businesses gives you the scale of how large a company we've become and how much opportunity we have within those ranges to perform. In terms of the second tranche of Element cars, the $500 million as we said, the exact timing and composition is still being worked through with Element. As we said, the majority of that will be from our leasing backlog. Now because of timing of when a car is produced and delivered, whether it gets sold to Element during the quarter or the next quarter will depend on whether you see it come out as a car sale or purely a new car sale from the OEM segment. So that won't impact the margin range within the guidance that we've given you or the profitability of the transaction itself. That's simply going to be geography. And we can certainly help you with that on a quarter-by-quarter basis when we report those results.

Allison Poliniak-Cusic - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Okay, that's terrific. And then, Steve, you gave a number of the leasings as it stands. Is that at the end of Q4 or did that include the sales to Element in Q1 as well?

D. Stephen Menzies

Analyst

This is of the end of the fourth quarter 2013.

Allison Poliniak-Cusic - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. Are you willing to provide the Q as it is today?

D. Stephen Menzies

Analyst

Not today, no.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to the side of Justin Long from Stephens Inc.

Justin Long - Stephens Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Are you more confident in some of the non-tank rail car markets coming back the next several years? It seems like you are based on the increase you're seeing in the market. And also, if you look at the manufacturing operation today in the Rail Group, what are some of the non-tank railcar types where you have latent capacity?

Timothy R. Wallace

Analyst

Steve, do you want to take that?

D. Stephen Menzies

Analyst

Yes. Sure, Justin, good question. We really are seeing a broadening in demand for railcars beyond just tank cars for crude oil service. Let me just talk about tank cars for a moment before I get into the freight cars. Again, crude oil is the initial phase of tank car demand. But as refined products continue to expand, and the petrochemical complex expands, we're going to see additional need for tank cars to carry those refined products as well. So I think there's still growth and legs [ph] to the tank car demand. Now freight cars, we're seeing strong demand really across-the-board. We're seeing significant demand for small cube covered hoppers, for frac sand and construction product. We're also seeing demand for covered hoppers that will carry grain products. And again, part of the expansion of the petrochemical sector, we expect that demand will only grow for covered hoppers for resins and plastics. So we are very well positioned to address any additional freight car demand from a capacity standpoint. And we really do see some growth in that area to complement what we're doing on the tank car side.

Justin Long - Stephens Inc., Research Division

Analyst

That's helpful. My second question was on the balance sheet. So your debt today is mainly nonrecourse debt associated with the lease fleet. And I was wondering how you think about the level of leverage you feel comfortable bringing on as you pursue acquisitions going forward.

James E. Perry

Analyst

Yes, Justin, this is James. I think as you point out that, we have a strong balance sheet. The majority of the debt is non-recourse on the leasing side. You've seen the leverage on that side continue to come down as we have financed a lot of our growth in the lease fleet with our cash flow from operations and from the capital that we've generated through our alliances and partnerships over the last year. From the corporate side of the balance sheet, as you mentioned really, the only piece there is the convertible debt and the cash we have puts us in a net cash position on the balance sheet. In terms of comfort around leverage, we are an investment-grade company from S&P and Fitch now. That's a good position for us to be in and it broadens our excess to the financial markets. We wouldn't put ourselves in a position of stating exactly what level of leverage we're comfortable with. Having that investment-grade rating gives us a lot of opportunities. But as we're making acquisitions or investing in the company, that's also bringing with it cash flow and earnings so that that increases your capacity there. So I think I'd say we have a lot of room, we have $1.3 billion of liquidity between our cash and immediately available facilities, certainly more on the debt and equity markets if we had that need. But I don't think we'd be able to give you a number on how much leverage we're comfortable with. But we'd certainly feel confident that we've got the ability to pursue opportunities for growth in the company with the balance sheet we have and the cash flow.

Justin Long - Stephens Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Okay, great. That's fair. I guess, one last one. I just wanted to clarify, so is the next tranche of $500 million of sales going to Element, is that reflected in your guidance?

James E. Perry

Analyst

Yes, it is. And again, it's expected over the next 12 months. It's going to come primarily from the leasing backlog, vis-a-vis primarily new cars. And it is included in the guidance. We're not breaking out the specific component from that because it's a Leasing Group of customers and then a third-party sale to Element of that railcar. So it is included in the guidance, yes.

Operator

Operator

And we'll take our next question from the side of Eric Crawford from UBS.

Eric Crawford - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

Just want a quick point of clarification on the deliveries guidance. I think the midpoint implies a 9% decline in deliveries from the 4Q run rate. Is that just a function of Element deliveries coming from lease fleet rather than backlog? How should we be thinking about that?

D. Stephen Menzies

Analyst

Eric, this is Steve. Yes, I wouldn't necessarily relate our delivery cadence with Element in that backlog. As I mentioned, we had some significant delivery requirements to meet customers' needs to have cars in service by the end of 2013, which caused us to ratch up a little bit more in the fourth quarter. I think the run rate of 25,500 to 27,500 is the right rate that you'll see on average over the 4 quarters.

Eric Crawford - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. But should we be thinking about a constant average run rate for the 4 quarters? Or do any quarters in particular stand out?

D. Stephen Menzies

Analyst

Well, generally our deliveries are within a fairly narrow range. We're going to have some changes in delivery numbers based upon product mix and potential line changeovers. But again, I feel good about the range of deliveries we've given you for the year.

Eric Crawford - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

Okay, got it. No, that's helpful. And I guess next, it's a common theme for everyone, but if you could speak more broadly to the opportunity you're seeing with respect to tank car safety, seeing reports of some customers looking to buy new rather than retrofit. And other OEMs have commented they're hopeful to see some movement on the regulatory front in the next 60 to 90 days. So I was just wondering if you could speak to what you're seeing there.

D. Stephen Menzies

Analyst

Yes. Eric, I mean, it's all speculation. The PHMSA has a very clear process that they must go through. They're in a quiet period following the request for peers' opinions and submittals under the advanced notice of proposal we're making. We're very much engaged in any conversations within the industry with our customers. We're looking at a number of different scenarios. I think we'll be prepared for whatever outcome comes to us from a rulemaking. But I still think we're a little bit in the offering before we know what those are.

Eric Crawford - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

Got it. And then last for me. Just switching over to barge. I guess that coal-to-ag barge switching dynamic that you called out, is that gaining momentum or has it been more limited? I guess with the big harvest and the higher nat gas prices that we're seeing at least now, I think that there might be less momentum there.

Timothy R. Wallace

Analyst

Yes, Eric, I think the momentum has definitely slowed down on the conversions. We did see it pretty strong for a period of time. But we are seeing a slowdown at this point in time.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to Bascome Majors from Susquehanna.

Bascome Majors - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division

Analyst

I wanted to ask another one on sort of the acquisition front. You've talked a little bit about leverage and where you're seeking to deploy capital. But now that Element's out there, we have some of the same visibility you do into some of the cash inflows from your leasing monetization efforts over the next couple of years. I mean, can you help us think about sizing up the amount of capital you and your board are comfortable with deploying over the next couple of years here? And just give us a little sense to the cadence or pace of that that you guys had as you think about growing the business outside of rail.

Timothy R. Wallace

Analyst

Okay, Bascome, this is Tim. We were very focused in our business development process within our company, and we know our markets and our industries real well that our businesses participate in. And we've got a broad group of relationships that provide a large number of opportunities for us. So in the business development, in the business growth area, we always have something going on in that particular area. We're either participating in a formal bidding process for a company or we're taking some delivered steps to discuss opportunities with principles of companies that we're interested in. It's just a very dynamic environment and it's hard for us to pinpoint one particular item at this time. Sometimes our transactions occur very quickly, and in other times, they take a long time to finalize the deal. And that's how the history of our company has been for decades. We're fortunate to have a highly flexible and collaborative manufacturing platform that we build upon. And when we look at an acquisition candidate, we always analyze their enrichment value, and that's the value that they bring to us and the value that our manufacturing platform will add to their business. And this enrichment flows both ways. And so on some of the smaller deals, we may get some competencies and we may get some technology that's very crucial to us. The acquisitions that we did in the cryogenic business were very small, but they have opportunities with the seeds that have been planted to grow into something very large and make a significant impact. A lot of times when we acquire a company, we may have an idle facility that we think we can convert some manufacturing space over to. We're just constantly reviewing growth opportunities that fit within our current business or adjacent to our manufacturing platforms in that area. So it's just really hard for us to quantify them and put the dollar and cents to the size. We're not afraid of doing a large acquisition. In fact, we have a pretty good appetite in that particular area, but it's a matter of finding something that fits really well with our culture and fits with the manufacturing platform that we have. And we're very confident that we will have some very interesting opportunities this year and next year as we -- on a go-forward basis.

Bascome Majors - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division

Analyst

Maybe -- could you help us get a sense for what the boundaries of small, medium or large would be in your eyes?

Timothy R. Wallace

Analyst

No. Because like I said, we don't really categorize something as a small, medium and large. We look at it as to the potential that we think that business can bring to us and then the value that we can create on a go-forward basis. But as James said, we've got significant liquidity. Our balance sheet capacity is great, we've got cash flow coming in. So we can handle a relatively large acquisition.

Bascome Majors - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division

Analyst

All right. Understood. And I'll just ask one more on a different angle. This morning, the largest crude carrier among the Class Is confirmed that they were seeking to purchase their own fleet of newer tank cars in light of some of the public and regulatory safety concerns that you addressed earlier in your call. Rails owning tank cars would be a pretty dramatic shift from the traditional operating lessor-and-shipper ownership structure here. Could you confirm if you're getting inquiries from multiple railroads on the tank car side today?

D. Stephen Menzies

Analyst

Bascome, this is Steve. We don't comment on specific orders or order inquiries. I agree with you that a major railroad taking ownership of tank cars is something different in our industry. And I have seen where BNSF have made their large announcement earlier this morning about an interest to purchase tank cars. We'll certainly look at this business opportunity like we look in the other orders. And yes, there's going to be a number of people looking to buy a lot of tank cars following regulatory change.

Bascome Majors - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division

Analyst

All right. Understood. Do you think -- I mean, hypothetically, since it's early at this point, I mean, could this impact or could this change the safety debate in any way in your eyes and how that plays out if they emerge as buyers and owners in this asset class, which they historically haven't been?

D. Stephen Menzies

Analyst

I don't think so. I mean, railroads have always been concerned about tank cars safety whether they own them or not. And there's 330,000, 340,000 tank cars in North America. So I think the tank car segment is a strong market segment, it's going to continue to grow.

Timothy R. Wallace

Analyst

At the same time, Steve -- this is Tim. Berkshire already owns tank cars. So it's just really one of their units owning tank cars versus another one.

D. Stephen Menzies

Analyst

Good point. Union Tank Car, of course, another subsidiary of Marmon group, which is owned by the Berkshire companies, Berkshire Hathaway which also owns Burlington Northern Santa Fe.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to Sal Vitale from Sterne Agee. Salvatore Vitale - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc., Research Division: Just a quick clarification. When you say the next tranche of the $500 million to Element that will come from the leased backlog, so just to make sure I understand that, that is -- will not be eliminated, so the profit will not be eliminated on that, correct?

Timothy R. Wallace

Analyst

Ultimately, that's correct. You may see in 1 quarter the profit eliminated as it goes into our lease fleet and then is sold to Element, that's simply a matter of timing and geography, as I mentioned. But once the cars are sold to Element, you'll see a full recognition of the profit at a consolidated level. Salvatore Vitale - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc., Research Division: Okay. So then when you say that the guidance that you gave on all the categories, so basically the profit on the $500 million would be included in the leased profit, right, rather than the manufacturing profit?

Timothy R. Wallace

Analyst

The majority of that would be in the manufacturing profit as the majority of this will come out of the Rail Group directly. There may be some that move to leasing first and come from that. And again, we'll update that on a quarterly basis if we see that shift. Salvatore Vitale - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc., Research Division: Okay, understood. And then the other question is if I just look at your backlog, you have about 40,000 cars in the backlog and the midpoint of your guidance for '14 is 26,500. How do I think about this? Does all of that 26,500, should we assume that all comes from the backlog? Or is some of it or are you envisioning some of those deliveries to come from current year orders?

D. Stephen Menzies

Analyst

Sal, this is Steve. Good question. We certainly expect a significant number of our deliveries to come from our backlog. We do have unsold space on several of our product lines, production lines in 2014. So there may be some additional sales that will come from those opportunities.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to the side of Matt Brooklier from Longbow Research.

Matthew S. Brooklier - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

In your prepared remarks, you talked about potential opportunity within Mexico. And I'm just curious to hear kind of your overall thoughts on what that opportunity could look like. That's an energy market. Currently, they're going pretty radical change here. Just curious to hear where potentially Trinity fits into that market, which, in particular, businesses and what's your level of, I guess, conviction that you can grab incremental business in that particular market?

Timothy R. Wallace

Analyst

Okay. This is Tim. As I said during the past few years, our customers have ordered railcars and barges to transfer crude oil and they're ordering tanks for the storage of it. And if you look at our product line, it fits real well to serve all of our products, fit real well to serve the oil, gas and chemical industries. And so we're just closely monitoring the opportunities in Mexico. We've got great relationships down in Mexico, we've got a board member that used to be the CEO of Pemex at one time. And so we're following the proposed legislation and the changes that could open up the energy markets and increase the privatization down there. So it's more of a longer term, "let's sit on the sidelines and look at what opportunities are there, and then let's be prepared to strike when we think the appropriate time fits." We're building right now in Mexico loads of frac sand cars, as an example, and we're building tank cars down there. So we're geographically desirably set up. We're building tanks right now of all different types that serve that particular market. So our Mexico companies that we have are really strategically located to serve that market on a very rapid basis, should the demand increase.

Matthew S. Brooklier - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

Okay. I mean, is the opportunity more on the railcar side or is it more on the tank storage side? Or is it a little bit of both maybe?

Timothy R. Wallace

Analyst

I think it's across-the-board from the Energy Equipment business segment that we have, as well as the Railcar segment that we have.

Matthew S. Brooklier - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

Okay. And then just another question about regulation. Is there any other, I guess, preemptive measures that tank car buyers are currently making ahead of potential regulation? I mean, for the most part, we don't know what the final rule could look like. We do have kind of a sense of what the requirements may be. And I'm just curious to hear of kind of the equipment mix on the tank car side that shifted further towards jacketed cars versus nonjacketed cars and kind of the overall potential benefit for Trinity.

D. Stephen Menzies

Analyst

Matt, this is Steve. Yes, certainly, we're in dialogues with all of our customers about potential outcomes and about orders they may have placed with us. We really haven't had a situation where a major customer shifted from a non-jacketed car to a jacketed car because the non-jacketed cars are acceptable under the regulations. And I think you have to understand from the shippers' standpoint, because oil continues to come out of the ground. They have refineries, they have to be able to continue to feed. So just halting railcar shipments, whether that's new equipment that they have earmarked for expansion or whether it's existing equipment, just not very feasible. And so I think we continue to make what we make and then assuming as the regulations are available, we're going to make that shift and produce those cars for our customers.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to the side of Art Hatfield from Raymond James. Arthur W. Hatfield - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division: James, I know you don't want another question on Element and your guidance. But just on your elimination guidance, are you currently assuming all $500 million will be direct sale or is a portion of that you have going through the lease fleet at this point in time? And I know you'll update us as time goes on, but just kind of for an understanding of where the guidance stands now.

James E. Perry

Analyst

Sure, Art. Thanks for that. And that's why we give ranges. The guidance we gave is that the vast majority of that is through the elimination line directly from the Rail Group. But the car sale figure that we gave you and then the elimination figure that we gave you does include some of that flowing through. But for the most part, the vast majority is directly from the Rail Group. And again, we'll update that each quarter as we move along and get more precise timing around that. Recall that we already have a piece of that recorded in the first quarter that we reported previously, what shows up in revenues versus what shows up not as revenues, those kinds of things. We're happy to walk you through that after the call as well. But hopefully that helps. Arthur W. Hatfield - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division: Okay. No, no, that actually that -- no, that helps me a lot just to get that clarification. Just another thing, and I don't know if this is just an accounting thing, but can you kind of help me understand. In the fourth quarter of '13, you sold about -- from the lease fleet, you sold about $112 million worth of cars and generated a profit of $16 million, whereas a year ago, you sold $50 million and generated about $15 million of profit. Can you just walk me through kind of what happened year-over-year there and if I'm not really...

Timothy R. Wallace

Analyst

I'll mention that in a few different ways, Art. Clearly, one thing is simply mix and which cars you're selling and what leases are attached. Another thing is and again, we can walk you through this, the revenue piece of this, whether a car is less than 1 year old and recorded as revenue versus a car that's more than 1 year old and not shows up as revenue, can make a big difference in that margin. It's all going to show up as profit, the only portion that may show up is revenue. The cars that we sold in the fourth quarter this year could have a different mix in that perspective in terms of ages fourth quarter a year ago. So we can track that with you as we file our 10-K later today and help you with that math.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to the side of Willard Milby. It sounds like Willard Milby's phone may be having some problems. We'll take our next question from Barry Haimes with Sage Asset Management.

Barry George Haimes - Sage Asset Management, LLC

Analyst · Sage Asset Management.

A couple of questions. One, if there is a retrofit market that develops when the safety regulations come out, is there anyway you can give us a broad range per car, let's say, to size that? And would you need to bring out some more capacity to handle that since you're pretty full on your tank car capacity now? That's the first question.

D. Stephen Menzies

Analyst · Sage Asset Management.

Barry, it's really hard to speculate on the nature of a retrofit until we know what the retrofit is. Recall that in the fourth quarter, we made an acquisition in maintenance services when we acquired Seaboard, which expanded our maintenance service capabilities. Specifically, retrofit work will be done at a maintenance facility as opposed to a new car production facility. So we're looking at alternatives to be able to support our fleet and any customers if and when our retrofits are required.

Barry George Haimes - Sage Asset Management, LLC

Analyst · Sage Asset Management.

Okay, great. And then my second question was on the acquisition program that you talked about, can you -- and obviously, each profit will be somewhat different. But can you give us a sense of what sort of IR hurdle rate you're looking at or what kind of spread across the capital you're looking at?

James E. Perry

Analyst · Sage Asset Management.

Sure, Barry, this is James. Thanks for that. We really just don't dive in to what our hurdle rates might be, what IRR rates might be. We clearly look at all of those factors when we discuss potential investments across the company, internal and external, with our Board of Directors. But we take into account those exact types of things, as well as the long-term benefits we have, enrichment opportunities we have, as Tim mentioned, and what it's going to do for the company and the shareholder value. So we just don't dive into that, certainly externally.

Barry George Haimes - Sage Asset Management, LLC

Analyst · Sage Asset Management.

Okay. And then last question for me. The new ethylene plants that are scheduled to come on in the second half of the decade, about when would you start to see railcar orders to service those new plants?

D. Stephen Menzies

Analyst · Sage Asset Management.

Barry, this is Steve. Certainly, there's a lot of investment plan to expand ethylene cracker capacity, that's exciting for us. We started to see the initial inquiries for rail cars to transport resins out of several of those expanded facilities. And we expect that to continue. I would look, and I think we said in previous conference calls, that 2015, '16, we would expect to see a good flow of railcars for those operations.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to -- we'll do a follow-up from Bascome Majors.

Bascome Majors - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division

Analyst

I just wanted to ask your thoughts on cash taxes for the year given that some of the lease fleet is aging and the composition is changing a bit. I'm just curious if you expect the cash versus book tax mix to change dramatically this year.

Timothy R. Wallace

Analyst

Sure, Bas. I think you have seen that change over the last few years. As you've seen, the depreciation of our lease fleet flow through the system. As you've seen, the bonus depreciation opportunities for the last couple of years, we've looked at that, certainly with our partnerships as well. Now they have tax partnership status. So we would expect the cash tax aspect as opposed to the GAAP tax aspect to continue to increase this year as we go through the quarters.

Bascome Majors - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division

Analyst

Is there any guidance you can give us about a cash tax rate or perhaps a directional trend in deferred taxes this year?

Timothy R. Wallace

Analyst

No. I think it's a little early to go through that. We're still working through the 2013 taxes, of course, as we file that later this year. And then as we see what opportunities present themselves in terms of how we handle lease fleet sales, how we look at the depreciation of our own lease fleet, acquisitions we might make, those kind of thing. There's a lot of variables there that impact that quite a bit. So I don't think we'd be able to, here in February, provide any detailed guidance for much direction beyond what I said earlier.

Gail M. Peck

Analyst

It looks like that concludes today's conference call. A replay of this call will be available after 1:00 Eastern Standard time today through midnight on February 27, 2014. The access number is (402) 220-0117. Also, the replay will be available on the website located at www.trin.net. We look forward to visiting with you again on our next conference call. Thank you for joining us this morning.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference call. Please feel free to disconnect at anytime.