Barry Harvey
Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Go ahead
Hey, Kevin, this is Barry. I guess, a few things. One, as far as the maturing process, it's -- our CRE book the maturing process, we're about 14% for 2023, 34% for 2024, 32% for 2025 and then it drops off dramatically there. So our CRE book is predominantly going to be construction and in mini-perm financing. And so there's a -- when we're looking at the various books, we're looking to see as those loans continue to reprice, then bearing in mind that all of those construction mini-perms are variable rate across the board. So, they are absorbing those higher interest rates and have been all the way along with the rate bumps. But we're continuing to look to see, as they have to hurdle from a net service standpoint, how they're going to perform, given where they were when they were underwritten, and the reserves established and the valuations versus the environment they'll need to either go to the permanent market in, or possibly sell to a third-party. So, we're continuously evaluating those. We're not seeing a lot of cracks at this point in going through these evaluations. And we're feeling very comfortable with our book, primary source of repayment, secondary source repayment. So, we're comfortable with that aspect of it. From a provisioning standpoint, this quarter, during the provisioning process, it was -- we were driven primarily by three factors. One was loan growth, and where the loan growth came from, and the provisioning required there. And then we did have the slight weakening in the macroeconomic forecast. That was probably about a third of our provision driver. And then from there we did have the lengthening it out from a life of loan in our mortgage book. And since our mortgage book is $2.3 billion, when it does lengthen out from 21 quarters to 25 quarters in a given quarter, it does require some meaningful provisioning. Both -- we had provisioning both from a quantitative standpoint and we had some provisioning from a qualitative standpoint as well. So, clearly that was the driver of the $8.2 million provision, and how much of that begins to slow from an average life expansion, we'll have to wait and see. And then from a forecasting perspective, things have been pretty good from an unemployment standpoint. Remember, sudden unemployment is one of the key, a loss driver characteristics, pretty much in every one of our books. So, if we did see a substantial weakening in the sudden unemployment, then obviously that would drive our provisioning going forward. Thus far, we've seen ever so slight changes in the fourth quarter forecast. We do have a straight-line four-quarter reversion to the mean. And then from there, the mean drives the provisioning, as it relates to the sudden unemployment attribute or national unemployment attributes. So, I mean at this point, we feel comfortable with the guidance we provided on provisioning. And at one point probably before the year started, we thought it might be a little higher than 2022. I think at this point, we don't believe that to be the case. It may be in line or slightly less, but we don't see it being higher than what we had in 2022 based on what we know today.