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TORM plc (TRMD)

Q3 2018 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 15, 2018

$32.09

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to today's TORM's Third Quarter 2018 Report Presentation. [Operator Instructions]. I must also advise you the meeting is being recorded today, on Thursday, the 15th of November, 2018. And I would now like to hand the meeting over to Mr. Christian Søgaard-Christensen, the CFO. Please go ahead, sir. Christian Søgaard-Christensen: Thank you, Ella, and hello, everybody. As usual, we will refer to the slides as we speak, and at the end of the presentation, we will open it up to questions. With that, please turn to Slide 2. Before commencing, I would like to draw your attention to our usual safe harbor statement. So Slide 3, please. With me today is Executive Director, Jacob Meldgaard. Slide 4, please. As we turn to the presentation of 2018 Q3 results on this slide, I'll hand over to Jacob.

Jacob Meldgaard

Analyst

Thank you, Christian, and good day to everybody. We, this morning, reported our results, which was an EBITDA of $15 million for the first quarter of '18, and a loss before tax of $24.5 million or equivalent to $0.34 cents per share. Our net asset value remains relatively unchanged at $11.2 per share over the quarter. The product tanker freight rates reached very low levels. Actually, the MR benchmark has never been recorded lower. This was impacted by a decrease in demand growth and shorter sailing distances. We believe that product tanker freight rates have bottomed out here in the third quarter, and into the fourth quarter, we have experienced firmer product tanker freight rates driven by increasing export activity in the U.S. Gulf and a stronger crude market. Across all segments, our average TCE rate was $10,598 per day during the third quarter. If we look at the spot freight market today, we had, as of last Friday, fixed 61% of our total Q4 '18 earning days at an average TCE of $13,278 per day. So fortunately here, we can see that there is a clear, firming strength here in Q4. Since our last earnings call back in August, we have taken delivery of the final LR2 newbuild, TORM Hilde, out of a series of 4 LR2s. We've also entered into agreement to sell 3 older vessels, an MR vessel TORM Neches, and also the MR TORM Clara, both built in 2000, and we've sold the Handysize vessel TORM Ohio, which is built in 2001. The three vessels were sold for a total consideration of $20 million, and a total associated debt of $12 million will be repaid here in the fourth quarter. Before entering the market section, I would like to provide you an update on the IMO…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. And your first question is from the line of Marcus Bellander of Nordea.

Marcus Bellander

Analyst

One question from me. On Slide 9, you say that you expect 5% incremental growth in the product tanker freight from the IMO 2020 rules. Is that specifically for 2020 because there's going to be a lot of fuels moving around that year, or is that sort of a step-up in volumes that will be persistent, so to speak?

Jacob Meldgaard

Analyst

Marcus, Jacob here. Yes, as you point to it is the event of the 1st of January. There is a step-up of 5%., and that would then persist. So it's not a -- it's a onetime off where you seem to lift the demand picture by about 5%, and we expect that to then be stable around that new level.

Marcus Bellander

Analyst

And if I may follow up? Why do you expect this increase more specifically?

Jacob Meldgaard

Analyst

It is cyclical that there is a new type of fuel that now needs to be produced at various refineries worldwide, and it then needs to be distributed to the ports where there is a need for the end user. In this case, shipowners will need compliant fuels. So there's not a currently refinery sector that is based in the locations where you have the need for transportation fuels. So those new types of transportation fuels, which we call compliant fuels, will have to be distributed on clean petroleum product carriers.

Marcus Bellander

Analyst

Okay. And just to make sure I understand you fully. So the old fuel was not shipped around to the same extent as this fuel will be?

Jacob Meldgaard

Analyst

It would be but it would be predominantly done on crude carriers.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Finn Petersen of Danske Bank.

Finn Petersen

Analyst

A question to your slide of your relative performance on slide 11. The third quarter seems like you lost some of your advances you have seen since Q1 '17. Are there any explanation why you are doing a poor job in the third quarter than in the previous 5 or 6 quarters?

Jacob Meldgaard

Analyst

Finn, Jacob here. So I will leave it up to you to evaluate whether we're doing a poor job. I think what we're experiencing...

Finn Petersen

Analyst

Relative to the past.

Jacob Meldgaard

Analyst

Relative to the past, yes. So that is absolutely correct. So what we're experiencing is that right now the market has conversed, sort of, at a lower level in the third quarter and let's just call it average $10,000 per day to be, sort of, without being exactly precise. What has also happened is that all of the markets that we operate in geographically, so whether it's the Atlantic or whether it's Pacific or whether it's Middle East where we can position our vessels, a part of our outperformance has generally been -- we have been relatively good at predicting what will be the geographical area where you will have the strongest relative freight rates. And what has happened during the third quarter here is that all rates in all areas have basically conversed down. So as an example right now, in -- here in the fourth quarter, what we're experiencing spot is that in the Atlantic basin, MR freight rates is currently around $15,000 triangulated, whereas freight rate in the Middle East and Asia is around $10,000 to $11,000. So what you will find is that in the third quarter, these rates were more or less the same in all areas. So a part of our inability to create higher value has been that there has not been these geographical areas offering a higher return.

Finn Petersen

Analyst

So then is the big question, why are you exposed for the fourth and the first quarter?

Jacob Meldgaard

Analyst

So the first quarter, I can't predict. All I can tell you, we follow on a weekly basis the position of ships. Right now, we have 75% of our fleet in the Atlantic, in the MR segment, which was the one I mentioned.

Finn Petersen

Analyst

And are those -- are they open or they part of that -- how much of this is covered by your current 63% of the days for the rest of the year?

Jacob Meldgaard

Analyst

What I am -- yes, so what I am describing is the next open position for the vessel, 75% out of the 50 vessels we have will be open next time in the Atlantic. But the timing for the open will, of course, depend on the current depth of their voyage. I think what is very clear to me is that there has been a -- as we pointed to in the presentation, there has been a change in the market dynamic. We have slowly -- on a one-month rolling basis, we have been coming out of a very poor market, let's say, around 10. Right now, our one-month rolling rate for MR is around 13, but spots for this week, I expected to be closer to 15. I think that describes the current strength that we're seeing in our figures.

Finn Petersen

Analyst

And that is due to an opening of the diesel arbitrage windows in the North Atlantic like the old days? Or -- and is that correct? And how sustainable would that be?

Jacob Meldgaard

Analyst

So, that's absolutely one of the factors, correct. So the diesel arb from U.S. to continent has opened recently. What we are also experiencing and which is probably a more sustainable and important factor for us to follow is that the transport differences, in general, of the volumes out of refinery sector in the U.S. Gulf have increased. So the transportation needs in the third quarter for the refinery sector in U.S. Gulf was predominantly to the nearest by destination so that would be Mexico, Latin America, Caribs, et cetera. What we are experiencing now is that there is a trend for the volumes to also go longer distances. So down to Brazil, Argentina, Chile, across as you point to the continents. So there is clearly an arbitrage window that has seasonality to it, which has to do with the deals you pointed to. But there is also a bigger picture around that currently tonne-mile effect of the same volumes out of U.S. Gulf has a positive effect on the market.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. And your next question is from the line of Dan Togo of Carnegie.

Dan Jensen

Analyst

Going back to the IMO 2020 and the distribution of that globally, are there any markets in particular where this would hit? I'm thinking, Atlantic Pacific, et cetera. Are there any rude areas, in particular, where this boost will be particularly strong? That's the first question.

Jacob Meldgaard

Analyst

Dan, yes, so out of the -- as you can imagine, we believe that there is a disruption here where actually the players in the bunker sector providing the fuel to the whole shipping industry will, of course, need to find its new normality, and there would be new trading rules. However, it should be so that it is predominantly from Middle East to Asia supplying the fuels, compliant fuels of the new type into -- for instance, into Singapore, which is obviously a very important hub for this. So they don't have the supply vessels there, so that would most likely come from Middle East. And then you will also see that Europe, in general, has a deficiency in bunker fuel types, and that will be moving most likely from the U.S. So movement from U.S. and Middle East supplying Europe, and from Middle East supplying Asia.

Dan Jensen

Analyst

Okay. And then on your investment here into scrubber production and installation. Firstly, how big of an investment are we talking about for you guys, your capital commitment? And what are the risks? Also when are we going to see the profit contribution from this joint venture i.e. -- and is this going to be substantial? And I guess it will be some sort of one-liner in the P&L.

Jacob Meldgaard

Analyst

So one about the financial investment and the risk, it is a figure that is less than $1 million that we put into joint venture. So this is basically so that what you do is you commit working capital in order to have the first production up and running. The production will start at the first facility next week in China. It has been identified and we are then working on having one more facility where we can produce scrubbers, but the capital commitment is so and therefore, also the risk is less than $1 million that we put into it. If you look -- and then if you come to potential financial impact of being a part owner, it will be a one-liner in the -- in our accounts and Christian can explain where it would be included but what we anticipate is that we will obviously give an update in general on a quarterly basis about the development of the JV.

Dan Jensen

Analyst

But the JV doesn't have orders from others outside you guys to install scrubbers? Or is it still very, very early days?

Jacob Meldgaard

Analyst

It is early days. So we just announced it and there is an organization inside of that joint venture that will take care of that. So I'm not privy in that to how far they are in having acceptance of orders. I know that there is a lot of requests. Christian Søgaard-Christensen: And then -- Christian here. It will hit on the -- our operating income but please bear in mind that there is a lead time from order to delivery of a scrubber of maybe 6, 9 months. So it is into '19 before you'll start seeing something in our figures. And potentially even second half of '19 before you will start actually having to work on it.

Operator

Operator

There are no further telephone questions.

Jacob Meldgaard

Analyst

Thank you very much. So with this, we will conclude the earnings call -- conference call for TORM's third quarter results. The annual report will be released on 12th of March next year and we look forward to providing you with updates on our business at that time and we'll keep you informed of any interim developments. Thank you for dialing in.

Operator

Operator

That concludes the presentation. Thank you for participating. You may disconnect.