Robert Painter
Analyst · Baird. Your line is open
Thanks, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone. I have three main topics to cover this afternoon. First, a recap of Q4 2017 and to a lesser extent overall 2017.Second, I will discretely address topics of the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and our ASC 606 implementation. Third, I will cover Q1 guidance, where I will stick to our practice of guiding the quarter and not the year. Let’s start on Slide 5 with our review of the fourth quarter results. Top-line and bottom-line results came in ahead of plan, meeting our significantly exceeding expectations in all reporting segments. Fourth quarter total revenue was $708 million, up 21% year-over-year. Within that, currency translation added approximately 2% and the net effect of acquisitions and divestitures added about 5%. Organic growth was approximately 14%, which resulted in our seventy quarter in a row of accelerating organic growth. Notably, the rate of organic growth increased in all segments. In short, our construction businesses are healthy. Our transportation segment continued its growth trajectory, largely as a result of the first phase of the electronic logging device mandate that went into effect in December. Agriculture end-markets continue to improve and our geospatial segment continues to benefit from new product introductions, improving end-markets such as oil and gas, as well as a couple of large contract completions. Fourth quarter non-GAAP gross margins were 56%, down 90 basis points year-over-year driven mostly by acquisitions, but also impacted by strong hardware sales in the quarter. Operating income dollars increased 18% to $126.3 million, while the operating margin percentage dropped to 17.8% largely due to acquisition effects. On an organic basis, operating margins expanded year-over-year and were just under 19%. Fourth quarter non-GAAP net income was up approximately 24% and non-GAAP earnings per share in the fourth quarter were $0.39, up $0.08 or 26% year-over-year. Our non-GAAP tax rate declined from 24% to 23% year-over-year, reflecting geographic income mix. Next on Slide 6, full year total revenue was $2.65 billion, up 12.4% year-over-year with organic growth at about 10%. Full year non-GAAP net income was about $380 million, up 26% from prior year. Non-GAAP earnings per share for the full year were $1.48, up $0.29 or 24%. Turning to tax, please note that on a GAAP basis, net income for both the fourth quarter and the year were negatively impacted by additional tax expense of $85 million on the sum of accumulated foreign subsidiary earnings and deferred tax impacts, a result of the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act being enacted. As this tax legislation was passed late in the fourth quarter of 2017, we expect to see ongoing IRS guidance and accounting interpretation over the next 12 months. The accounting of the transition tax, deferred tax remeasurements and other items associated with the tax legislation are provisional due to the forthcoming guidance in our own ongoing analysis. Slide 7 has an overview of our current assessment of the impact. Our non-GAAP tax rate going into 2018 is currently expected to drop from 23% to 20%. This rate could be impacted in the future by forthcoming IRS and accounting guidance regarding the tax legislation. We do not anticipate any fundamental changes to our business as a discrete result of its change in tax legislation. Our capital allocation policies remain consistent, albeit further enhanced by the ability to bring cash back onshore for more efficient capital deployment. For example, we will fund approximately $250 million of the e-Builder acquisition from this cash repatriation, whereas previously that would have required incremental debt. Turning to Slide 8, we finished the year with $537 million of cash and short-term investments, and our gross debt level at the end of the fourth quarter was $914 million. Deferred revenue increased 10% to $313 million. Operating cash flow for the year was relatively flat year-over-year given the inventory investments we are making in this environment of growth and tightening capacity on some key components. We also repurchased $288 million of stock for the year representing approximately 7.4 million shares. Turning now to a review of the reporting segments. Let’s start with Transportation on Slide 9. Revenue was up 24% year-over-year with currency translation adding about 1% and acquisitions adding about 4%. Over the past two years, Transportation has been our fastest growing segment on an organic basis. Our Mobility business benefited in the quarter from the first phase of ELD regulations in North America going into effect on the 18 of December along with other product and market adjacencies such as video and OEM sales. Our enterprise business in routing, navigation and transportation management also continued to experience SaaS revenue growth. Our business in Europe and India continued to expand further validating our execution model. Operating income margins decreased by 80 basis points on a year-over-year basis as a result of product mix and targeted investment in certain high opportunity customer areas. To put a little more color on the product mix, the telematics aspect of the business that benefited from ELD is delivered by a solution with an onboard computer and an ongoing SaaS subscription. The hardware or onboard computer has comparatively low margins. Therefore, the comparatively high installation volume during the fourth quarter drove lower gross margins in the quarter. Next, let’s turn to resources and utilities on Slide 10. Segment revenue was up 38% year-over-year with currency translation adding about 2% and acquisitions providing a positive effect of about 23%, which primarily reflects the acquisition of Müller with a smaller impact from recent forestry acquisitions. In agriculture, we continue to experience healthy growth in markets such as Europe, Russia and Brazil reflecting penetration-related growth opportunities. In the United States, we experienced another quarter of growth in our aftermarket business and also saw growth across our key OEM partners. We continued to see double-digit growth in our Correction Services business and our forestry business. Operating margins contracted 480 basis points on a year-over-year basis to 24.9% impacted primarily by Müller and the three acquisitions we made in the forestry space. Please note that organic operating margins were up year-over-year. As we enter 2018, we expect our recent acquisitions in resources and utilities to be accretive to EPS. Within the next few years, we expect these acquisitions to be accretive to company operating margins. Given the historically high margins in this reporting segment, we continue to expect modest dilution of operating margins at the reporting segments. Moving to geospatial on Slide 11, revenue was up approximately 11% year-over-year with currency translation adding approximately 2% and divestitures subtracting about 1%. Organic revenue was up in the segment for the fourth quarter in a row. Within the segment, our optical and G&S SaaS equipment posted growth including growth in the North American market where we achieved our best growth since the second quarter of 2014. Our geospatial business continues to benefit from new product introductions, including a recently launched mechanical total station production line for our emerging markets, as well as end-market diversification. Furthermore, we experienced strong sales of our industrial based technologies to automotive companies for development of their autonomous technology programs. Operating margins in the segment were 20.5%, up 100 basis points year-over-year, primarily due to revenue growth and gross margin expansion and partially offset by an increase in operating expenses. Let’s next turn to the buildings and infrastructure reporting segment on Slide 12. Segment revenue was up more than 18% year-over-year with currency translation adding about 3% and no acquisition impact in the quarter. Both the building construction business and the civil engineering construction business were up double-digits for the quarter reflecting continued strength we saw throughout the year. The impact of growth in operating leverage enabled us to expand operating margins 350 basis points to 21.3%. As Steve mentioned, we are very excited about the future contributions to our construction business from the acquisition of e-Builder, the description of which is detailed on Slide 13. From a financial standpoint, e-Builder reported approximately $53 million of revenue in 2017, with over 20% revenue growth rates and over 65% subscription revenue. In the first year, the impact of acquisition accounting in addition to incremental interest expense for the acquisition is expected to be $0.02 to $0.03 dilutive to earnings per share in 2018. After these accounting effects cycle through, we expect e-Builder to continue its strong growth profile with operating margins similar to the rest of the buildings and infrastructure reporting segment in 2019. To finance the acquisition, we executed a $300 million credit facility. Next, Slide 14. Our revenue mix by region is listed. North America was up 17% year-over-year, where each of the four reporting segments grew on a year-over-year basis. Europe was up 36% in the fourth quarter, reflective of the addition of Müller, which drives a majority of its revenue in Europe. Growth is relatively broad based and led by markets including Germany, UK, France, Finland and Russia. Currency translation contributed about 7% to this growth rate with organic growth in the low-teens. Asia Pacific revenue was up 14% in the quarter and continued to be led by growth in Japan, Australia, India and Korea. Each of our reporting segments had growth in the region. Lastly, rest of world was up 16% with notable increases in markets such as Brazil and the Middle East. Moving now to Slide 15 and our revenue mix. Software services and recurring revenue streams continued to grow in absolute dollar terms and represent approximately $1.25 billion or 47% of revenue over the trailing 12 months. Recurring revenue represents approximately $750 million or 28% of revenue over the trailing 12 months. The steady percentages of revenue mix reflect broad based growth in revenue including strong hardware revenue growth within the geospatial agriculture, civil construction and transportation businesses. Let’s turn to Slide 16. We did not close any new acquisitions in the fourth quarter. However, in January, we announced both e-Builder and Stabiplan, both are in the buildings and infrastructure reporting segment. Let’s now move to guidance and go to Slide 17. Steve addressed our views looking forward into the year. For the first quarter, we expect revenue to be between $700 million and $730 million and non-GAAP EPS to be between $0.36 and $0.40 per share. Three comments to provide context to guidance. First, with respect to top-line growth, the midpoint of the range implies more than 16% year-over-year revenue growth, of which approximately $40 million or over 6% is from acquisitions. In Q1, we expect solid organic growth. Albeit lighter than the trend of the last few quarters, primarily a result of transportation companies catching their breath to implement a new ELD technology. Second, in terms of profitability, the midpoint of our guidance assumes a Q1 2018 non-GAAP operating margin that is similar to the Q1 2017 operating margin of 17.8%. To break that down, we expect organic operating margins to be in the 19% range offset by margin dilutions from recent acquisitions. Margins would be even higher where not for the temporary cost associated with the ASC 606 and tax reform work. Our guidance also includes a lighter contribution versus prior quarters a non-operating income, which falls below the operating income line. Interest expense will step-up in Q1 as a result of our increased leverage and we are also making a targeted investment in one of our joint ventures in the first half. Third, our guidance reflects revenue recognition under ASC 605 accounting. We are moving to the new ASC 606 guidelines in Q1 meaning that we will report Q1 under 606 even though we are guiding under 605 accounting. We have elected to adopt 606 using the full retrospective method, which will restate 2016 for the total year and 2017 by quarter under 606. What this means is that you will be able to see apples-to-apples comparables of our Q1 results under 606 accounting versus Q1 2017 results under 606 accounting. It is our intention to publish these recast 2016 and 2017 financials before our next earnings call. As such, during the Q1 earnings call, we will focus the conversations on top-line and bottom-line progression from Q1 2017 to Q1 2018, both of which will be reported under 606 accounting. While we continue to assess all impacts of the new guidance, we currently expect for 2018, on an annual basis, that the 606 accounting will not have a material impact. Whoever it is anticipated that the timing of a portion of the revenue may shift between quarters, primarily due to the accounting for software term licenses and custom professional service contracts. The majority of our revenue, which is related to hardware, software perpetual license, SaaS and other service and support offerings are expected to remain substantially unchanged. So to summarize the guidance takeaway, as Steve said, we largely expect the continuation of the trends from the second half of 2017 into 2018. Overall, we currently expect full year revenue growth in the low to mid-teens. From a profitability perspective, over the course of the year, we expect to drive the company towards an operating leverage model, consistent with the performance of the overall business in 2017, that is in the 25% range or better leading to full year operating margin expansion. With that, let’s now take your questions.