Steven W. Berglund
Analyst · Eli Lustgarten
Good afternoon. The issues that impacted us in the first 6 months of the year remained with us in the third quarter, albeit more emerging signs of encouragement for 2014. The constraints continue to revolve around very inconsistent market conditions in multiple regions, deferrals of investment due to continuing economic uncertainty and heightened confusion around government funding sources, particularly in the U.S. The points of improving momentum in the quarter were the continued strengthening of residential and commercial construction in the U.S. The return of growth to survey instruments and better insight into the agricultural market, which enables an expectation of double-digit growth in that business in 2014. Although the 2014 environment remains ambiguous and challenging to predict, these and other effects lead us to expect a step up in Trimble's organic growth in 2014 from the level we saw in 2013 without any material help from the economy. With the probable contribution of acquisitions to revenue, the combined effect should enable us to report a higher growth rate than the 10.5% to 11% of 2013. Revenue growth of 10% to $556.5 million was consistent with our expectations, although it was at the lower end of that range. Although the growth rate remains below our historical secular trend, the year-to-year comparison for the quarter was particularly challenging given 2 large discrete orders in GIS and mining in the third quarter last year that had no comparable analog this year. The quality of our financial model also continued its progression in the quarter with non-GAAP gross margin of 56.9%, which is up 1.5 points from the third quarter in 2012. This trend in gross margin reflects a continuing structural shift from the increasing value content being provided by bundles of hardware, software and services. This led to a quarterly non-GAAP operating margin of 21.2%. The non-GAAP operating expense level was at 35.6% of revenue, with the increase entirely due to the impact of recent acquisitions. As we have discussed in prior calls, longer term, we are working to bank the higher gross margins and to work expenses as a percentage of revenue down to historical levels, providing operating margin lift. While we expect the fourth quarter to mimic the third quarter, our revenue guidance range for the quarter, which Julie will discuss, is broader than our historical standard. The wider range results from the generally greater uncertainty in our revenue forecast as we introduce larger contracts into the mix. Many of these contracts in isolation have the potential of pushing us outside our traditional narrow range if we miss performance commitments by a few days as revenue recognition accounting rules cause a reinterpretation of the precise schedule of when the revenue associated with a contract is recognized. In the fourth quarter, we have 3 examples of this uncertainty. All have the possibility of falling in either the fourth or the first quarter. Together, their effect is meaningful. One relates to whether, in the judgment of the customer, we have met the acceptance criteria for a large contract by the end of the quarter. The second is centered on when we will be able to recognize the first revenue on the multiyear $63 million to $99 million contract with the Marines and Army, which was announced in August. In this case, the U.S. government shutdown has delayed the timetable on implementation, and it is unclear whether we will be able to recover the schedule before the fourth quarter ends. The third issue is dependent on specific customer meeting certain criteria, which would allow us to move a discrete item out of the deferred revenue balance into revenue during the quarter. More generally, we continue to be negatively impacted by the U.S. budgetary crisis. In reality, the environment has worsened since the beginning of the year. During the first half of the year, we expected the sequester effects would be institutionalized in the new budget year, which began October 1. This would have produced relative certainty even if they had to lower expenditure level. Instead, the shutdown and inability to achieve resolution has increased both skepticism and uncertainty in our relevant markets. Although our direct exposure to U.S. government spending remains comparatively small, the indirect effects are significant and becoming more apparent to us. The 3 Trimble product categories that are most affected are survey instruments and heavy civil in the E&C segment and GIS in the Field Solutions segment. Heavy civil is currently being affected by the paralysis in addressing the inadequate federal funding of highway infrastructure construction. Survey instrument and GIS sales heavily depend directly or indirectly on funding from all levels of government. In many cases, even if the apparent funding for our users is coming from the municipal, county or state agencies, a large portion of that funding is ultimately derived from federal sources. The uncertainty relating to the availability and level of future funding has had a widespread chilling effect on the willingness of our users to seriously commit to new projects. GIS is the product category most affected financially, and it is down sharply year-to-year. The relative good news is that despite the imposed constraints, both heavy civil and survey instruments are growing in the U.S, with survey instruments growing double digits in the third quarter. The picture across the regions remains inconsistent and volatile. European sales for the quarter were up approximately 13% year-to-year, with the strongest push coming from agriculture. North America was up over 18% year-to-year, reflecting improvements in the residential and commercial construction market, acquisitions and revived growth in survey instruments. The rest of the world was down, reflecting a general sideways trend in some markets, such as Brazil and China, and recession in other markets, most notably Australia. In recent years, these markets have been relative mainstays for us. And the recent effects on portfolio performance has impacted us negatively in the short term. Directionally, we are looking for improved organic performance in 2014. While the number of moving parts make it difficult to precisely quantify an outlook, we believe we are currently in a transition zone, which leads to an improved baseline for 2014. The outlook is based on a number of discrete perspectives. In E&C, survey instruments have returned to growth, and we expect this to continue into 2014. Part of the lift is coming from an improving survey product portfolio. For the product categories we refer to as building construction, our growth expectation is supported by the trend in U.S. residential and commercial construction, new product introductions and the growing attractiveness of our increasingly integrated product capability to major construction accounts. While our current judgment of growth possibilities in heavy civil remain conservative given worldwide infrastructures spending levels, we currently expect growth levels no worse than 2013 with logical arguments that they might further improve based on new product categories and a developing distribution channel. In Field Solutions, we expect the agricultural revenue to grow at a double-digit rate, partly driven by the expansion of the number of new product categories and a higher rate of new product introductions. Our admittedly conservative view on GIS is that our dismal performance will bottom out in the fourth quarter. And starting in the first quarter, it will cease to be a notable pain point as we lap the 2013 performance. Mobile Solutions reported results will look different -- significantly different in 2014 as the acquisition effects of 2013 disappear, and we will trend towards something closer to the organic baseline. We believe that the financial model will continue to improve, resulting in higher operating margins. Overall, the view is that these effects will enable the step up in organic growth with an enhancement from acquisition effects. Finally, our CFO search has been methodical and extensive with a rich field of candidates. We are in the final stages of the search, and there should be news in the near future. Let me turn the call over to Julie Shepard, our Interim CFO. During this interim period, Julie's competency and commitment has provided us with the ability to conduct a careful and methodical search without a sense of urgency to fill a void. Julie?