Steven W. Berglund - President and Chief Executive Officer
Analyst · Deutsche Bank
Good afternoon. Today we will add some additional third quarter details, the comments we made on October 6 and establish the context for Trimble within the unprecedented... uncertainty that surrounds us all. In summary, our fourth quarter forecast is significantly less precision than normal because we remain predominantly a book and bill business that is in the short-term subject to the ways of fear, uncertainty and doubt that are enclosing short-term buying behavior by businesses. We anticipate 2009 to be a difficult year, but believe we have businesses within our portfolio that can grow. Finally, our confidence in our three year strategic path remains undiminished. As we indicated in our earlier call, we came up short on our expected third quarter revenue, largely due to the chilling effect of the freeze up in the credit markets on our customers. Much of the impact is decidedly short-term with some of the effects having obvious implications for 2009. We can point to dozens of anecdotes where the credit crises has resulted in loss sales for Trimble late in the third quarter or early in the fourth quarter. In some cases banks and other financing entities have denying credit to our customers. However in the significant majority of cases, our customers simply been afraid of the effects of the credit crises and have shutdown spending until some clarity emerges. Until confidence rebounds and some kind of steady state is established, it will be difficult for us to regain precision in our short term forecast. We believe we are well positioned to confront a traditional U.S. recession, one that does not involve the fear of systemic financial collapse, and our anticipating being in that environment during most of 2009. We have gotten to this week; emerging from the third quarter is on earnings; in spite of the revenue shortfall we exceeded our earnings guidance and achieved an improvement in the quality of our earnings model. Our gross margin was up year-to-year demonstrating a favorable product mix, improved costs and the absence of major pricing pressure. Our sales, marketing, and administrative expenses were also down year-to-year as a percentage of revenue demonstrating our seriousness of purpose on maintaining the quality of our model under a revised revenue scenario. As a result we saw non-GAAP operating margins expand over the prior year. In the third quarter we continue to see strong performance in our agriculture business and continued robust international growth outside the U.S. and Europe. We also saw a further reduction in the tax rate. We remained challenged in the E&C segment and we're comparatively flat in mobile solution segment as expected. The agriculture story remain centered on comparatively strong pharma cash flows and need to mitigate high input cost for fuel and fertilizer and strong product innovation. While commodity prices have dropped in the short-term, we do not believe this is a major factor for us because our justification is centered on cost reduction and yield improvement which remain as relevant as ever. Agriculture continues to develop as an international story with rapid market development beyond our historical core geographies of North America, Brazil and Australia. We believe we can sustain double-digit growth performance in this business through 2009. This view is based on anticipated demand for existing products, international expansion and a product line expansion into new emerging agricultural applications. The other business in the field solution segment mapping and geographic information systems had a respectable growth quarter with strong margins but do not see the traditional strong end of year... end of fiscal year push from U.S. government, presumably because of tougher spending controls in Washington. As expected the mobile solution segments quarterly results were unimpressive for the quarter with relatively flat revenue and earnings compared to the prior year. While we also expect fourth quarter to be relatively flat compared with the prior year, we are increasingly pleased with the prospects for 2009 in this segment and believe it has potential for taking end process steps in the next 15 months in subscriber growth and resulting financial performance both in the U.S. and internationally. Although the owners of small fleets of vehicles are in a comparatively hunted down state as they confronted slowing economy, we're seeing unprecedented levels of activity and interest among large fleet operators who have the potential for eliminating significant cost by adopting our technology. We are aided in our pursuit of these enterprise accounts by the Trimble brand and reputation which puts us in a good position to represent ourselves as a strong and reliable life time partner as compared to a universe that is still often populated by much smaller competitors with much shorter history. The army improving prospects for significant enterprise level orders, we are also seeing an expanding sales pipeline internationally against the baseline of close to zero a year ago. This activity is taking place in Europe, Latin America and parts of Asia. Against the positives within the Mobile Solution segment, we continue to wrestle with some businesses within the segment. The handheld field service and direct store delivery business has a growing sales pipeline but continues to be a financial drag. Our expectations for this business are tied to our new platform product the Mobile Application Platform aimed at a market of tens of million of workers which explains our relative patients. Our transportation and distribution business and our efforts in Asia-Pacific are also a drag on performance. We are achieving increased traction in the Asia-Pacific Mobile Solution market and believe we can achieve stronger performance levels during 2009. The construction supply, pre productivity, Telco and public businesses... public safety businesses are all reflecting healthy trends. Third quarter engineering and construction segment revenues reflected continuing high levels of uncertainty in U.S. and Europe while our international business outside those regions continues to be generally strong. The slower economy in U.S. and Europe is translating into fewer construction starts and fewer capital purchases. This is an environment we believe we can sell into since productivity and cost reduction become more relevant to contractors during tougher times, a factor that is not allowing us to engage in an effective sales process, and E&C is the paralysis of decision making that is resulting from the freeze up of credit markets and resulting reactions by business managers. In a number of cases we have seen investment decisions that were already made get put on hold as a result of a blanket spending freeze. The negative picture's not consistent across the segment. Our laser tool's business which was our largest exposure to housing fell sharply from the prior year. Other categories such as survey instruments which began to slow in early 2007 after an exceptionally strong 2006 was up single digits... up strong single digits year-over-year in the Americas. Under more traditional circumstances we might be asking ourselves that we had touch bottom and we are seeing early stages of recovery. In the current macroeconomic environment it is impossible to put these market moves in context and create credible judgments. Overall we are looking at 2009 with a combination of concern about the macroeconomic environment together with a view that we have a number of upside scenarios within the company. The key question will be by how much the upside will exceed the down side. The upside beyond the positive picture I've already outlined for agriculture and mobile solutions will result from a number of other elements. We are seeing robust growth potential outside of the U.S. and Western Europe. Since most of our sales in these areas are for government funded infrastructure development, we are not directly exposed to slowdowns in commercial spending. We expect international to remain strong for us in 2009. Many of our recent corporate efforts have been focused on extending our international presence to realize the opportunity. We also believe we can produce points of growth based on new revenue streams from new adjacent business concepts. For example, we discussed the introduction of our new Forestry product line in the July conference call. While we have yet to make our first sale, we've generated a meaningful sales pipeline in the three month since product release. The purchasing cycle is comparatively long but we expect decisions in most cases in the next six months. While acknowledging the possibility of macro economic follow-up, the sales pipeline alone has the potential to create 1 to 2 points of growth for Trimble next year from an entirely new source. Another new adjacent area for Trimble is our Geospatial initiative. Here we are creating new tools to provide our existing customers Geospatial information with which to more efficiently plan, build, monitor, and operate their infrastructure. We are initially focused on three vertical markets: roads and highways, transmission and distribution for electrical and water utilities and oil and gas transmission and distribution. We will develop imaging and lighter systems in software to collect data and process within the high fidelity 3D models of vital infrastructure. These high fidelity models are used for applications such as road alignments studies, environmental impact assessments, infrastructure design and cost estimation, vegetation management, road condition assessment and roadside asset management. To accelerate our position in this emerging marketplace, we have made four small acquisitions in the last year. Rollei Metric is a developer of high resolution, ruggedized metric cameras using aerial and terrestrial systems to collect imagery. TopoSys is a developer the aerial of data collection systems comprised of high resolution cameras and LiDAR. GEO-3D is a developer of mobile vans that collect similar imagery and LiDAR data from roadways. INPHO is a developer of office software to process the LiDAR data and imagery using photogrammetry techniques to generate the 3D models. This portfolio enables Trimble to offer an end to end solution to our customers. By leveraging Trimble's worldwide capabilities, we believe we can generate meaningful short term growth in this new business during 2009. These are two examples of new ideas becoming new sources of revenue. Beyond these two applications, we are actively pursuing a number of other adjacencies within the company with the potential to establish ourselves in new market segments during 2009, with implications for 2009 and beyond. The new joint venture and distribution agreements with Caterpillar announced on October 6th have major implications strategically, but also have short-term potential as well. The announcement has been well received and participants in the distribution channel who have been awaiting the announcement are now moving forward with implementation plans for the new SITECH concept. Market conditions aside, we expect a much more energetic channel from construction machine control and the emerging connect-to-site products in 2009. As we said in the earlier call we expect the effects from these agreements to add two points to Trimble's annual growth rate going forward. While all our actions are undertaken with a three-year view, we expect these and other actions will make 2009 something other than a one way street of doom and gloom and certainly make us something more one trick pony tied to the construction industry. We are not backing away from the concept of generating meaningful revenue and earnings growth in the year. Without a doubt 2009 will be difficult and at the moment too difficult to forecast. With the apparent continuing easing of the credit markets, we hope to see a more conventional recession in the U.S., a slow growth environment in Europe and continued growth elsewhere. Our points of focus will be to take the actions necessary to preserve our financial model, to take the aggressive steps necessary to emerge from this period competitively and strategically stronger than we entered it, and to take this as a unique opportunity to improve across the company. Just as the actions we took in recession years, the 2001 and 2002 created the platform that launched us on a six-year trajectory of growth. We anticipate using this period of adversity as an opportunity to establish a stronger position for ourselves. Let me turn the call over to Raj.