Julie M. B. Bradley
Analyst · Citigroup
Thanks, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone. Second quarter revenue increased 16% to $197.1 million, in line with our expectations. In constant currency, revenue was up 19% year-over-year. Click-based revenue was up 13% year-over-year to $151.1 million. The 7-percentage-point sequential deceleration in year-over-year growth rate can be explained by 3 main factors: We benefited from increased conversion, more than offset by year-over-year decline in pricing and the traffic quality improvement strategy; we saw increased hotel shopper conversion in Q2 relative to Q1, albeit on a slightly lower hotel shopper growth rate. Even with the unfavorable trend in foreign exchange rates, overall CPCs were stable in Q2 as compared to Q1. We did see CPCs increase in the U.S. but this was offset by CPC decreases internationally. However, when looking at the year-over-year growth rates, sequentially, we had a tough pricing comp this past quarter compared to an easy pricing comp in the first quarter of this year. This accounted for 4 percentage points of the sequential year-over-year growth rate decline. Finally, as Steve just described, we estimate that our traffic quality improvement strategy accounted for an additional 4 to 7 percentage points on the sequential year-over-year growth rate decline. Lots of moving parts, but the core fundamentals remained strong. Display-based advertising revenue grew 14% year-over-year in Q2 to $26.6 million. The sequential deceleration was due in part to specific timing of ad purchases, including a unique customer buy during Q2 2011. Overall, our CPM prices increased slightly as compared to Q2 of last year. We continued to maintain a premium price in the CPM market and stable click-through rates, given our rich travel specific contents. Subscription, transaction and other revenue, which includes Business Listings, vacation rentals and our transaction businesses, had a good Q2, growing 59% to $19.4 million, just slightly behind our expectations. In Business Listings, we continue to see a huge opportunity to diversify our customer base and develop a channel to distribute value-added products over the long term. Our near-term challenge is ramping sales execution on a global basis, such as connecting with a B&B in Vermont, while also building our relationship with a large independent hotel in Cancun, and concurrently determining the top domestic properties in Thailand. To that end, we are catching up to our aggressive sales force hiring plan and have seen encouraging productivity metrics. We remain focused on capturing the huge opportunity we have from Business Listings, as well as growing our vacation rentals products in 2012 and beyond. As it relates to geographic mix, despite macroeconomic challenges and unfavorable foreign exchange movement, non-U.S. revenue was 49% of total revenue during the second quarter compared to 48% in Q1 and 44% in the second quarter of 2011. On the expense side, non-GAAP sales and marketing expenses were $63.3 million or 32% of revenue for the quarter, which is down sequentially in both absolute value and as a percentage of revenue. This was primarily due to lower SEM spend related to our strategy to increase traffic quality to our customers. We remain committed to making investments in our strategic growth opportunities and traffic diversification efforts. Given our year-to-date results, however, we expect non-GAAP sales and marketing spend to remain under 40% as a percentage of revenue for full year 2012. Non-GAAP tech and content expenses were $19.1 million or 10% of revenue for the quarter, which is up 17% sequentially, driven by additional headcount cost and in line with our expectations. We expect this expense line to stay relatively constant on a dollar basis for the balance of the year. Non-GAAP G&A expenses were $14.8 million or 8% of revenue, in line with our expectations. Investment in our public company infrastructure is essentially complete, and we expect quarterly G&A expenses to be relatively stable on a dollar basis for the balance of the year. Depreciation and amortization totaled $6.5 million or 3% of revenue, and stock-based compensation expenses were $6.8 million or 3% of revenue in the quarter. For 2012, we continue to expect depreciation and amortization to be approximately 3% of revenue and stock-based compensation to be approximately 4% of revenue. Our effective tax rate was approximately 31.5% for the quarter. For the balance of 2012, we expect our effective tax rate to remain relatively unchanged. In terms of liquidity, we ended the quarter with $478.2 million of cash and cash equivalents. In early May, the warrants we inherited from the spinoff were exercised for approximately $213 million. The warrant exercises were the primary driver of the uptick in our basic and fully diluted weighted average share counts for the period. Cash flow from operations was $61.8 million or 31% of revenue for the quarter. We continue to expect full year 2012 cash flow from operations to track with adjusted EBITDA after providing for interest and taxes or low 30s as a percent of revenue. Q2 CapEx was 3% of revenue. Given our capital-efficient business model, we continue to expect this line item to remain in the low single digits as a percent of revenue for 2012. As a result, we generated $55.8 million of free cash flow during the quarter. In terms of headcount, we ended Q2 with just over 1,400 employees, up from just over 1,300 employees at the end of Q1. Hiring efforts for the balance of 2012 are global in scale and are focused on engineering and sales. Also, I'd like to provide a brief comment on foreign exchange impacts given the prevailing macroeconomic challenges overseas. As we've mentioned in the past, we forecast FX neutral based on current rates and do not try to anticipate movements in foreign exchange rates. Just over 20% of our revenue was denominated in euros and less than 10% in the British pound. A significant move in FX would have the greatest impact on revenue as we have natural hedges to help mitigate bottom line exposure. With that, let me turn to our outlook for the balance of the year. We continue to expect 2012 total revenue growth in the high teens. On the click-based revenue line, we are factoring in the Olympics and the continuation of our traffic quality improvement strategy as headwinds in Q3. We are also planning to roll out enhanced analytics for some of our large OTA partners on a test basis. Many of these customers have asked for more transparency in order to better understand the big landscape and in turn, increase their spend. We recognize the uncertainty this may present to our revenue results. While more transparency allows them to bid higher on their more profitable properties, it does come with a risk that clients will choose to optimize their spend without increasing revenue to TripAdvisor. In addition, we saw strong pricing in the second half of 2011 prior to the rollout of lower Expedia pricing at the end of the year. However, we expect continued strength in hotel shoppers and lapping of last year's site redesign to more than offset the potential headwinds I just described. Given all these dynamics, we currently expect click-based revenue growth in the mid-to-high teens for the full year. Display-based revenue faces a tough comp in Q4 based on an unusually strong demand in Q4 2011, which may not reoccur. Given this and our year-to-date performance, we now expect low double-digit annual revenue growth for display. We expect that full year subscription, transaction and other revenue growth will be consistent with our year-to-date results. Importantly, early indicators for all these revenue lines are healthy as we continue to leverage our leadership position in the market. We continue to expect 2012 adjusted EBITDA to be higher than 2011 in terms of absolute dollars based on the better-than-expected results during the first half of the year. Given the strength in our core CPC business and reduced spend on SEM, we seek to reinvest all excess profits into our strategic growth opportunities and our traffic diversification efforts. We are committed to driving long-term user growth and engagement in the business. In closing, the second quarter closed out a great first half of 2012 for TripAdvisor. We'll now open the call up to your questions.