Stephane Bello
Analyst · Drew McReynolds at RBC. Please go ahead
Thank you, Jim, and good morning or good afternoon to you all. As usual, I will speak to revenue growth before currency throughout today's presentation. As Jim just mentioned, we do expect that currency will have a greater than unusual impact on our results in 2015 and we are starting to see the impact of this higher currency volatility in our Q4 financial results. So as I always do, I will highlight the areas where currency had a material impact on our results. This first slide provides a snapshot of our fourth quarter and full year results, which do reflect the impact of the charges which we flagged earlier this year and which impacted our performance over the past 12 months. At the EBITDA level, these charges had a $77 million impact in the fourth quarter and $135 million impact for the full year. So we ended up incurring slightly higher charges than we had expected, $135 million versus our earlier expectations of about $120 million. Fourth quarter revenues were up 1%, all organic. Our Financial & Risk segment declined 1% and was down 2% organically, while our other businesses grew 4% in aggregate and 3% organically. Full year revenues were up 1% and about flat organically. Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was up 30% with an EBITDA margin of 24.7%. Excluding charges from both periods the EBITDA margin was 27.1% in the quarter compared to 26.6% last year and for the full year the EBITDA margin was 27.4% compared to 27.3% last year. Finally, our fourth quarter operating profit margin was up 20 basis points excluding charges and excluding the impact of currency the operating margin was up 50 basis points in Q4. For the full year the operating profit margin was 18% flat compared to last year with minimal impact from currency. Now, let me provide you with some additional color on the performance of our individual businesses, starting with our Legal segment. Demand for legal services in the U.S. market as measured by Peer Monitor was up 1% in 2014 versus down 1% in 2013, and we saw modest growth in every quarter of 2014. For perspective, the last time we saw growth in each quarter of a calendar year was 2007. Now, while the improvement in the underlying market demand is encouraging, it remains modest overall and demand for litigation services, which is the largest practice area, was still negative. During the fourth quarter legal grew 2%, all organic. As expected, U.S. Print revenues continue to be a drag declining 6%, but excluding the impact of U.S. Print revenues rose 4% organically during the quarter. For the full year legal revenue grew 2% with organic revenue up 1% and that represented an improvement of 200 basis points compared to 2013, and excluding U.S. Print revenues were up 3% for the year and up 2% organically. Transaction revenues for the quarter, which represented 12% of the total were up 10% driven by strong performances in our software business and in our legal outsourcing business. Subscription revenues, which represented about 75% of the total, were up 3%, all organic. The continued strong organic performance of our subscription revenue base during the quarter is a good indicator of the underlying strength of the business. For the full year subscription revenues were up 4% and they were up 3% organically. Now turning to our profitability metrics for the quarter, the EBITDA margin was up 300 basis points while the operating profit increased 320 basis points. Excluding charges from last year, the EBITDA margin was down 130 basis points while the operating profit was down 110 basis points, primarily due to an adverse revenue mix. On a full year basis excluding charges from last year, the EBITDA margin was down 30 basis points and the operating profit was up 10 basis points. Given the challenging revenue mix resulting from the decline of high margin U.S. Print revenue, keeping our margins broadly flat was a good performance by the Legal business and very much in line with our expectations. Now, as you can see on this slide, the underlying trends in the Legal business are encouraging. As a reminder U.S. Print revenues represent about 15% of the total. So the graph on this slide shows the growth trend for the remaining 85%. As mentioned on the prior slide, Legal's total revenue growth was 2% for the quarter. However, when you strip out U.S. print revenues, you can clearly see the improving trend in the business on this slide. The remaining 85% of Legal’s revenue base has improved sequentially over each of the past four quarters. Now the fourth quarter had a relatively easy come, because as you may recall we experienced a decline in our revenue from our Latin American legal business in the fourth quarter of 2013, but nevertheless the underlying improvement is clear. Here is a more detailed look at the revenue performance of the three main sub-segments in our Legal business and this graph provides a good depiction of the changing revenue mix dynamics as our solution businesses is become an increasingly larger proportion of the total revenue base. As a reminder, these solutions businesses consist of everything except U.S. online legal information and U.S. print. In aggregate, they made up 46% of legal's total revenue in the fourth quarter, and they grew 8%, 7% organically. As I mentioned earlier, some of the strong organic growth performance in Q4 was driven by higher transaction revenues at Elite and Pangea3, but overall the growth performance of our solution business is strong as evidenced by the 6% organic growth rate they achieved for the full year. U.S. Print revenues were down 6% and they were down 7% for the year and finally, US Online Legal Information which is 38% of total revenues was flat for the quarter, which is encouraging. In fact we did see sequential improvement in U.S. online revenues every quarter in 2014 reflecting the improvement into legal market I described earlier. Now turning to our Tax & Accounting business, that business had another very strong year and quarter. Revenues for Q4 grew 10% of which 7% was organic and for the full year revenues grew 12% of which 9% was organic. Recurring revenue, which is about 85% of the total, grew 8% organically in the quarter. From a profit standpoint EBITDA was up 4% in the quarter with the margin declining 130 basis points as we continued to make organic investments in what is our highest growth business. For the full year the EBITDA margin was flat. For the fourth quarter operating profit was up 6% with the related margin down 50 basis points and the operating margin for the full year was up 80 basis points, primarily as a result of higher revenues and flat depreciation and amortization expense. As you can see on this next slide, we achieved strong growth across the business for the quarter. The corporate and professional segments were particularly strong with organic revenue growth of 12% and 10% respectively. Finally, the decline in the government segment had a very small impact on Tax & Accountings forward performance given the small size of that segment. IP & Science revenues were down 1% for the quarter, all organic. This performance was primarily the result of a lower number of transactional deals compared to the prior year period. I’ll get back to that in a moment. For the year revenues grew 3% with organic growth of 2%. Turning to profitability metrics for the fourth quarter, the EBITDA margin and the operating profit margin were both up substantially, primarily reflecting the charges we incurred in the fourth quarter of last year. Excluding charges from the fourth quarter of last year, EBITDA margin was actually down 30 basis points, while the operating profit was down 120 basis points. This was primarily the result of an unfavorable revenue mix compared to the prior year period. On the full year basis, excluding the charges incurred last year, the EBITDA margin was down 150 basis points and the operating profit was down 230 basis points, primarily due to organic investments in the business and also due to the diluted effect of acquisitions we completed in 2013. Although revenue declined overall for IP & Science in the fourth quarter, subscription revenues, which make up about three quarters of the total were up 6% and were up in each segment. Transaction revenues declined 17% as large one time deals signed in Q4 of 2013 were not repeated in the fourth quarter of 2014. And as always we remind you, small movements in the timing of these revenues and also of expenses can impact margins in any given quarter for the IP & Science business and that’s why full year results are much more reflective of the segments underlying performance. Now turning to the fourth quarter results for our Financial & Risk business. Revenues were down 1% with a 1% contribution from acquisitions, so organic revenue was down 2%. This organic revenue decline primarily reflected the impact of lower price realization, resulting from the migration of some of our foreign exchange and Buyside product offering to the unified platform. For the full year revenues declined 2% and were down 3% organically. Now as Jim just explained, we recently began migrating our remaining legacy Buyside and foreign exchange products to our unified platform, which may lead to lower price realization for some products. As such, we do expect that the pricing adjustments we are making in connection with these product migrations will dampen the positive impact of improving net sales on F&Rs over valuables revenue growth in 2015. In the fourth quarter we started to see some impact. We still anticipate that the improving trends in net sales combined with our regular annual price increases and greater price discipline on the rest of the F&R revenue base will help mitigate this impact. So overall, we do expect to see a year-on-year improvement in F&Rs top line growth performance in 2013 as Jim just mentioned. Now the EBITDA margin for the quarter was up significantly on reported basis. Excluding charges from both periods, the EBITDA margin was up 190 basis points and the operating profit margin was up 100 basis points versus the fourth quarter of last year. And again, these numbers exclude the impact of the charges, which amounted to $70 million in Q4 this year compared to $178 million in the prior year period. For the full year the EBITDA margin was up 70 basis points and the operating margin was up 50 basis points again both excluding charges, which amounted to $130 million this year compared to $251 million in 2013. Over the last couple of years our financial business has increased its underlying EBITDA margin by 140 basis points from 24.9% in 2012 to 26.3% in 2014, despite revenue declines averaging 3% of the year organically. As we gradually return this business to positive growth, the productivity improve we’ve made will become more apparent in our margin performance. Now as I mentioned in starting, currency has a larger than usual impact on the fourth quarter results and these was especially visible within our Financial & Risk business, which is where we carry the lion’s share of our currency exposures. As you can see on this slide, excluding both charges and currency from both periods F&R’s adjusted EBITDA margin increased 250 basis points in the fourth quarter to 27.3% and this represents significant progress towards achieving our objective of an EBITDA margin nearing 30%. The significant improvement in margins against the backdrop of the 2% organic revenue decline demonstrates how the simplification efforts of the financial business are baring fruits. Now looking at the Financial & Risk revenue in a bit more detail. Recurring revenues, which were 75% of the total, declined 2% during the quarter, 3% organically and this decline again was primarily the result of the commercial realignments we are implementing in connection with certain product migrations as I just described earlier. And as Jim noted, the trend in our net sales performance has reversed and we’ve now recorded positive net sales during the last three quarters. Recoveries, which are about 11% of the total revenues were up 5% for the quarter and as you know these are low margin revenues. Transaction revenues, which is 14% of the total were flat, but they were down 3% on an organic basis. However we did see some improvement in transaction revenues in our foreign exchange business. While one quarter dose obviously not constituted a trend the reason increase in market volatility should have a positive impact on transaction volumes and hence on transaction revenues going forward. For the full year transaction revenues were down 5% organically for F&R, due to lower volatility in currency and fixed income markets throughout most of the year. And since transactions represent a highly profitable revenue stream for the business, the declines in transaction revenues last year was obviously not helpful with regard to our margin goals. So we are hopeful that the trend will reverse in 2015. As Jim mentioned earlier 2015 should represent the last year of significant migration activity for Financial & Risk. As you can see on this chart only 10% of F&R’s revenue will remain on legacy desktop platforms by the end of 2016. This is a significant progress from the 45% of F&R revenue that legacy desktop represented in 2011. And the remaining 10% represent products such as wealth management, banker and Tradeweb, which have comparable or higher retention rate to Eikon and are not expected to migrate to Eikon in the next two to three years. Finally as shown on the pie chart on the far right of this slide, these legacy F&R desktop revenues will only represent 5% of the corporation store revenue base by the end of this year. Now let me update you on our capital position, free cash flow and earnings. 2014 was another active year from a capital structure standpoint. We issued $1.5 billion of new debt in 2014 and through these various transactions we maintain the average maturity across our debt portfolio at nine years, while at the same time reducing our average interest rate to below 5%. We ended the year with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.2 times, which is within our 2.5 times target. Maintaining a strong and stable capital structure obviously remains a key tenant of our overall capital strategy. And we completed the first $1 billion share buyback program we had announced in late 2013, while also announcing an additional $1 billion repurchase program which we intent to complete in 2015. Now turning to our free cash flow performance for the full year and working from the bottom to the top of this slide. Free cash flow for 2014 was a $1.4 billion, this included $306 million related to charges, as well as a decrease of $67 million of cash related to disposals. As such, ongoing free cash flow excluding the impact of disposals was up 32% for the full year. And ongoing free cash flow excluding the impact of the charges was about $1.7 billion. This was down very marginally from last year. I think 2013 we achieved a one-day improvement in our overall DSO, which we are able to maintain but not improve upon this year. We continue to deliver on our commitment to return capital to share holders. Over the past three years we have returned just under $5 billion of capital in the form of dividends and share buybacks. Our acquisition activity was pretty modest in 2014. We completed just a handful of deals for a total capital commitment of about $170 million. We will continue to pursuit technical acquisitions but on a very selective basis. We expect our acquisition activity will be concentrated in our highest growth areas and our preference will be to seek medium size deals, which have a greater impact in the business, and/or assets that can be integrated quickly and easily. Simply put, we do not want to distract the organization with complex integration processes at a time when we seek to improve the benefits of our scale through our transformation efforts. Now turning to our earnings per share performance. Fourth quarter adjusted EPS was $0.43 per share, $0.22 higher than the year ago, that $0.22 increase was attributable to lower charges partially offset by higher tax rates. As mentioned earlier, we incurred $50 million of additional charges compared to our original projections, $135 million versus our early estimate of $120 million. These higher charge had a negative $0.02 factor in our Q4 results and foreign currency also had $0.02 negative impact on EPS in the quarter. For the full year adjusted EPS was $1.85 per share $0.31 higher in the year ago, with increase attributable to lower charges and interest expenses, partially offset by higher taxes and for the full year foreign currency also had a $0.02 negative impact on EPS. Now in light of the increased volatility we have recently seeing in the foreign exchange market, currency is likely to have a higher than usual impact on the results in 2016, and as such we wanted to take this opportunity to remind you of our currency profile. As you can see on this slide the vast majority of our revenue and expense base is denominated in U.S. dollars. So we have a fairly well balance foot print overall. The main exception is our euro exposure, where revenues exceed expenses by about $800 million annually. So the recent appreciation of the U.S. dollar against the Euro and a few other currencies such as the Japanese Yen or the Canadian dollar will have a negative impact on our reported results, both at the revenue and the profitability level. As a rule of thumb a 1% movement in the Euro against the U.S. dollar exchange rate would translate into a $0.01 impact on EPS. We do hedge this exposure to forward derivative instruments, but given their inherent volatility the impact of these directive contracts is removed from our adjusted EPS. Is obviously imposable to predict what the ultimate impact of currency volatility will be, which is why we always provide our guidance before currency, but we wanted to highlight the effect that currency will likely to have a greater impact than usual on our result in 2015 and we obviously will provide you with full transparency on these impact as the year progresses as we always do. Now Jim has presented key metrics for our 2015 outlook, so I will speak to those he did not address. Capital expenditure, I expect it to remain at approximately 8% of revenue similar to 2014. For perspective our CapEx spending has remind roughly flat since 2011. Interest expense is expected to range between $435 million and $465 million and this reflects how we have maintained interest rates broadly flat, thanks to the financing activities. And finally we forecasted our effective tax rate will range between 14.5% and 16.5% in 2015, up slightly from 13.9% in 2014. I would like to remind you that we historically paid more in cash taxes than our effective tax rate may imply. For instance, our cash taxes in 2014 were about $260 million as compared to the $146 million tax expenses we booked last year based on our effective tax rate of 13.9%. With that, let me now turn it back over to Jim for a quick conclusion.