Earnings Labs

Trex Company, Inc. (TREX)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 24, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Trex Fourth Quarter 2014 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded February 24, 2015. I would now like to turn the conference over to Harriet Fried of LHA. Please go ahead, ma’am.

Harriet Fried

Analyst

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. With us on the call are Ron Kaplan, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Cline, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Joining Ron and Jim are Brad McDonald, Controller; Brian Bertaux, Director of Financial Planning and Analysis; and Bill Gupp, Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary. The company issued a press release this morning containing financial results for the fourth quarter of 2014. This release is available on the company’s website as well as on various financial websites. The call is also being webcast on the Investor Relations page of the company’s website where it will be available for 30 days. I’d now like to turn the call over to Bill Gupp. Bill?

William Gupp

Analyst

Thank you, Harriet. Before we begin, let me remind everyone that statements on this call regarding the company’s expected future performance and condition constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities law. These statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. For a discussion of such risks and uncertainties, please see our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Qs as well as our 33 and other 34 Act filings with the SEC. The company expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. With that introduction, I’ll turn the call over to Ron Kaplan.

Ronald Kaplan

Analyst · Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

Good morning. We are pleased with our record sales performance for 2014. We finished last year and started this year with strong momentum. This gives an early indication that our 2015 Early Buy Program is working effectively. Our 2014 sales were up 14%. This demonstrates our market share is growing. Our record financial results reflect strong execution across each of our guiding principles for increasing shareholder wealth. A great product line-up, unparalleled global distribution, unsurpassed brand strength and superior manufacturing process. Let me speak further on these. Regarding global distribution programs a few key drivers to advance our domestic market share in 2014 included, one, implementing a balanced pricing strategy to ensure that we were optimally priced in all key consumer segments, two, our new distribution footprint in the northeast, three, a very successful dealer conversion campaign. Our success in the domestic market was match with equal success in the international market. In addition to expanding our presence in existing and new markets, earlier in the year we were selected for our very high profile four-mile public boardwalk in Dubai. This boardwalk spans the beach side of six residential communities. Trex was chosen because we have the best aesthetics and performance features and an unrivaled ability to deliver on time. Regarding branding, we received considerable third-party branding recognition during 2014. In Q1 we were recognized with the top honors in the greenest product in decking brand categories by Green Builder Media 2014 Readers Choice Awards. In Q2 we won an American business Stevie Award for Marketing Campaign of the Year. Our campaign garnered millions of media impressions and drove hundreds of thousands of consumers to our website. And recently we received the number one ranking in Builder Magazine Brand Study for 2015. In this study we achieved the category sweep…

James Cline

Analyst · Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

Thank you, Ron. Good morning. First I would like to review our fourth quarter financial results. Sales for the fourth quarter were $74 million or 16% increase compared to 2013 reflecting strong organic sales growth throughout the quarter. Gross margin was 35.9% in the fourth quarter of 2014 a 510 basis point increase compared to the prior year. The increase in gross margin was the result of our third quarter cost reduction initiatives, favorable manufacturing efficiencies and increased capacity utilization. The year-over-year underlying incremental gross margin in the quarter was 68%. SG&A for the fourth quarter was $17.9 million compared to $15.4 million in 2013. The increase was primarily related to branding which reflects increased spending to support our 2015 season. In addition we recorded a one-time charge of $600,000 for expenses and breakage fees related to a terminated transaction and $500,000 related to the Dallas office lease. Earnings before taxes for the 2014 quarter were $8.6 million a 103% increase over the prior year's results. The company recorded net income of $5.2 million or $0.16 per share in the fourth quarter of 2014 compared to net income of $15.1 million or $0.45 per share in the fourth quarter of 2013. In 2013, the company recognized the favorable effect of a tax valuation allowance. Excluding that favorable adjustment, the earnings per share in the fourth quarter of 2013 would have been $0.08. Our full-year 2014 revenue and earnings set new records for the company. The 2014 net sales were $392 million a 14% increase over 2013. Our 2014 sales were positively influenced by the strong demand from both new and existing distributors and dealers. This highlights the success of our 2014 pricing strategy and other market share advancement initiatives. The company recorded net income of $41.5 million or $1.27 per…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Trey Grooms with Stephens. Please go ahead with your question.

Trey Grooms

Analyst · Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

Hey, good morning guys. Congrats on a good quarter.

Ronald Kaplan

Analyst · Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

Good morning.

James Cline

Analyst · Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

Thank you.

Trey Grooms

Analyst · Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

Couple of questions from me, Jim, you mentioned 68% incremental in the quarter. Can you help me kind of bridge that? I'm sure there were some one-time things in there that I'm not accounting for, but I'm kind of getting something a little bit lower than that. Could you kind of go through some of the adjustments we should be making to the prior year and this year's quarter to make sure whether we're accounting for everything there?

James Cline

Analyst · Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

Certainly, the number was 68% for the quarter. There was a small adjustment in the fourth quarter of last year to net sales related to business expansion expenses. I think that number was $350,000. I think that's the only adjustment you need to make.

Trey Grooms

Analyst · Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

Okay, all right, thank you. And the one-time items you were talking about, the $600,000 one-time charge and then another $500,000 that's in SG&A then I suppose?

James Cline

Analyst · Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

Yes, both of those hit SG&A.

Trey Grooms

Analyst · Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

Okay great. And you mentioned that you were still targeting approximately 45% incremental margins for 2015. Is there any difference in the way that we should be thinking about the seasonality of that number, I know it can move around a little bit quarter-to-quarter as evidenced in the third and fourth quarter of 2014? Is there anything unique about 1Q we should be thinking about?

James Cline

Analyst · Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

There is nothing unique about 1Q as compared to what it would have been last year.

Trey Grooms

Analyst · Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

Okay, and then lastly, on the guidance, if I'm doing the math right, I think using kind of the typical seasonality off of the 1Q guidance you gave implies a full-year 2015 kind of core decking growth of mid to high single digits. Is that about the right way we should be thinking about it or is there other things that might be playing a role this year we need to take into consideration?

James Cline

Analyst · Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

Well, we believe that the market will grow about mid single-digit and as you are aware we don’t give guidance on full-year sales. We have advised the Street that we would be expanding the production of the new sale of pellets beginning in the second half of the year, the second quarter, I'm sorry, third quarter. That's the only unusual impact that I would throw out there for you.

Trey Grooms

Analyst · Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

Okay, thanks a lot. I guess I'm going to slip one last one in that is model related. The SG&A in the quarter it was a little bit higher and you named out a few things, but in the past you've given us some color on how to think about SG&A for the upcoming year as we look at it compared to '14 could you give us any color on how we should be thinking about that?

James Cline

Analyst · Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

Sure, I think what you ought to do is you are to consider the fact we advised in the last call specifically that we would be expanding our branding by several million dollars. So, number one start with that. You will need to expand for inflation. So a lot of those costs will be directly impacted by the inflation index and to a small extent I think it's probably in the 4% to 5% is impacted by sales change year-over-year, because they are directly going to sales. Those are the primary changes that I would identify.

Trey Grooms

Analyst · Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

Okay, thanks for that and I'll get back in queue. Thanks a lot and good luck.

James Cline

Analyst · Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

Thanks Trey.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Glenn Wortman with Sidoti. Please go ahead with your question.

Glenn Wortman

Analyst · Glenn Wortman with Sidoti. Please go ahead with your question

Yes, good morning everyone.

Ronald Kaplan

Analyst · Glenn Wortman with Sidoti. Please go ahead with your question

Good morning.

Glenn Wortman

Analyst · Glenn Wortman with Sidoti. Please go ahead with your question

Yeah, with the price of oil coming down, can you just talk about the pricing environment for decking it is presumably input cost for some of your competitors have come in?

Ronald Kaplan

Analyst · Glenn Wortman with Sidoti. Please go ahead with your question

Pricing is they are relatively stable. Pricing usually doesn't change more than once a year. There will be some exceptions to that, but the change in input cost has not yet been reflected in any pricing that we've seen and frankly, I don’t expect it to be.

Glenn Wortman

Analyst · Glenn Wortman with Sidoti. Please go ahead with your question

Okay and then just on share gains, last year you provided some guidance around the expected impacts from increased market share, can quantify any expectations throughout 2015?

Ronald Kaplan

Analyst · Glenn Wortman with Sidoti. Please go ahead with your question

We're not going to quantify expectations. I'll just say that we're somewhere in the low 40s now.

Glenn Wortman

Analyst · Glenn Wortman with Sidoti. Please go ahead with your question

Okay, all right. Thank you very much.

Ronald Kaplan

Analyst · Glenn Wortman with Sidoti. Please go ahead with your question

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Rohit Seth with SunTrust. Please go ahead with your question.

Rohit Seth

Analyst · Rohit Seth with SunTrust. Please go ahead with your question

Hey, good morning. Could you quantify or provide some color around capacity utilizations you expect to run in the first quarter?

Ronald Kaplan

Analyst · Rohit Seth with SunTrust. Please go ahead with your question

Well, we're less than, we're operating at less than half capacity utilization and that's about as fine as I can predict.

Rohit Seth

Analyst · Rohit Seth with SunTrust. Please go ahead with your question

Okay, great. Thanks, that's helpful.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Paul Betz with BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question.

Paul Betz

Analyst · Paul Betz with BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question

Hello, good morning everyone. I know be in the 10-K, but do you have your branding expense, total branding expense for 2014 with you?

James Cline

Analyst · Paul Betz with BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question

It could be a shade under $21 million.

Paul Betz

Analyst · Paul Betz with BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question

Okay, that's all I had. Thank you.

Ronald Kaplan

Analyst · Paul Betz with BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next you have a followup question from the line of Trey Grooms with Stephens. Please go ahead with your question.

Trey Grooms

Analyst · Trey Grooms with Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

Thanks. Just one, I guess is kind of housekeeping question here, on the warranty reserve, it looks like the accrued warranty non-current accrued warranty came down by a couple million dollars there, is there anything, it's a little higher than where it had been running in the last couple quarters here, is there anything unique about that or just typical seasonality?

James Cline

Analyst · Trey Grooms with Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

On the warranty reserve we came into this year with a fairly high open claim balance. As we ended this year that claim balance declined significantly. So, I think part of it relates, the difference relates to the fact that we have been closing out on accumulation of claims that came in from the prior year.

Trey Grooms

Analyst · Trey Grooms with Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

Got you, okay and so that just explains the slight bump there. Okay, got you.

James Cline

Analyst · Trey Grooms with Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

That's right.

Trey Grooms

Analyst · Trey Grooms with Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

And then…

James Cline

Analyst · Trey Grooms with Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

Just there's another issue on that I'll mention. We have seen a fairly substantial decline in the inbound claims. So we've seen declines in each year since 2009 and this year has been no exception.

Trey Grooms

Analyst · Trey Grooms with Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

Okay, got you. Thank you. And then was there any impact there from that adjustment on the margin around the P&L from the quarter?

Ronald Kaplan

Analyst · Trey Grooms with Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

Which adjustment as you talking about?

Trey Grooms

Analyst · Trey Grooms with Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

The $2.5 million.

James Cline

Analyst · Trey Grooms with Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

The $600,000 and the $500,000 related, $500,000 was in the fourth quarter and the $600,000 related to the expenses and breakage fees were in the fourth quarter also.

Trey Grooms

Analyst · Trey Grooms with Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

Right, okay and looking at some of the commentary, I know Jim, you mentioned that you know, the early buy was very successful, you guys put up a strong 1Q guide. Can you give us a sense for your take on what the channel is looking like here as we're entering the spring season, is it about like last year or is it above or can you comment on that at all, do you have any sense?

Ronald Kaplan

Analyst · Trey Grooms with Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

Yeah, I have a sense of it, we just got back from our contractors meeting and I can tell you that the feeling in the room is very robust. I took a poll of our contractors as to what percentage increase they thought sales were going to go up. It left me feeling quite confident. The inventory in the channel is relatively flat, but the lead time to get a deck built is expanding and consumer confidence seems to be high. So, all-in-all we're feeling quite robust about the outlook.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jacob Meier with C.L. King & Associates. Please go ahead with your question.

Jacob Meier

Analyst · Jacob Meier with C.L. King & Associates. Please go ahead with your question

Good morning guys. Just had a quick question looking at with regard to whether this year particularly in the Northeast, I know last year the end of the quarter really hit your results. So I just wanted to seek what you're getting from dealers in the Northeast and if there's any delay with regards to ordering, you got any comments about that?

Ronald Kaplan

Analyst · Jacob Meier with C.L. King & Associates. Please go ahead with your question

Well, there is some delay in the Northeast. Our dealers were on the Boston area just don’t have any room in their yard to accept any additional shipments. They need some snow to melt, but across the United States all-in-all weather has not yet manifested itself as an issue. There's still time for it to do that. What we really watch is the duration of the winter more than the intensity of the winner. So right now we don’t have a red flag.

Jacob Meier

Analyst · Jacob Meier with C.L. King & Associates. Please go ahead with your question

Great, thanks.

Ronald Kaplan

Analyst · Jacob Meier with C.L. King & Associates. Please go ahead with your question

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Dillard Watt with Stifel. Please go ahead with your question.

Dillard Watt

Analyst · Dillard Watt with Stifel. Please go ahead with your question

Thanks, good morning. Congrats guys. Wondered if you might help us in any terms of quantification of what the pellet business did in the fourth quarter and what maybe your obviously second half load is for '15, but any help in terms of maybe what, how much of the $120 million for the first quarter might be from the commercial business?

Ronald Kaplan

Analyst · Dillard Watt with Stifel. Please go ahead with your question

Well, sales in Q4 are immaterial, all things considered in the grand scope of Trex. We're using our production line to meet current demand as well as refine the manufactured process, formulation and so on. We want to make sure by the time we have three lines steadier we've got this thing dialed in. So we're not going to predict sales for 2015. We've said that this will be a $50 million $80 million business three to four years out from the time we started. Right now we're running consistent with our internal plan.

Dillard Watt

Analyst · Dillard Watt with Stifel. Please go ahead with your question

So, fair to say that, still fairly immaterial in terms of the $120 million for the March quarter?

Ronald Kaplan

Analyst · Dillard Watt with Stifel. Please go ahead with your question

Yes.

Dillard Watt

Analyst · Dillard Watt with Stifel. Please go ahead with your question

Okay. Thank you very much.

Ronald Kaplan

Analyst · Dillard Watt with Stifel. Please go ahead with your question

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. Please proceed with your presentation or any closing remarks.

Ronald Kaplan

Analyst · Stephens. Please go ahead with your question

As we close out a record-breaking year, we're invigorated with our prospects for 2015 and beyond. Everyone at Trex has contributed to our company's winning track record and we're committed to carrying the torch forward. It's our expectation that 2014 is just a springboard to what our future holds. I look forward to seeing many of you at our Analyst Day in New York on Wednesday, afternoon March 11th. Our executive management team will be on hand, as well as some of the folks who head up our international, R&D and new specialty materials efforts. If you have any questions about the event, please get in touch with Harriet Fried at our Investor Relations firm, LHA. Thank you for joining us today and we look forward to talking to you again soon.