J.D. Moriarty
Analyst · Jed Kelly with Oppenheimer
No. That’s okay. I’d rather talk about unit economics then. I’m just teasing. I -- Jed, we can obviously talk about that alignment at any length. But I think we’re just excited to have dedicated focus on those things. I look at each of the things in my world as really being an extension of those core marketplace assets and then how do we use that competitive advantage to grow in an outsized way? So that’s the thought process. As it relates to unit economics. Just stepping back from it and looking at Q1 a year ago, and that is one of the ways that we look at our business internally as well. And we’ve got to remind everybody that each of those businesses within consumer are not yet back to 2019 capacity. Or when we do our projection for where they’ll be the end of this quarter, we’re happy to see that our home business is obviously dramatically ahead, and our insurance business is meaningfully ahead. But our small business, personal and credit card, are literally 50 -- mid-50% -- 54% for small business is our projection relative to where it was pre-COVID. Personal loans, 58-ish percent, credit card 43%, and that’s on a revenue basis. So that ripples through, obviously, on our margin profile, as your question points out. And so a year ago, when the consumer business was 42% of our revenue, it was also operating at a 36% margin. And the aggregate margin is still very healthy in Consumer. But as we’ve talked about, credit card is not. So let’s just talk about the puts and takes on each of those because there are some things affecting both of them that are a little bit unique. Personal loan margins remain healthy. The issue with personal loans is volume on the consumer side. So the lender demand is absolutely there. We have not yet seen a renewed consumer demand. We’re starting to see signs of it, which is great. But obviously, all the stimulus money out there has had an impact on that. So the margin profile in that business, though, remains very, very strong for us. So we’re happy with that. The lender demand is there. And as we see consumer demand come in with the return to consumers traveling, building up credit card balances, we will absolutely see a return in that personal loan business, and we’re excited about that. Our guide is conservative in this business, in particular, this and credit card. We think for good reason. We’ve approached the entire year with conservatism around consumer because just calling the timing is extraordinarily hard. Now when you look at unit economics in credit card, Those are sub-10% right now, okay, in terms of VMMs. So recognize that, that is a drag. We’re -- we said this in the third quarter of last year. We said that when credit card returns, and we’re seeing that revenue growth, revenue growth would lead contribution growth. And so what’s going to impact that for us? I think on the last call, I said we’re one aggressive issuer away from being able to garner some margin there, and that’s kind of where we are. We’re getting there. Revenue per approval is moving up, which is great. But you know what else needs to move up? Approval rate. So that underwriting box that the credit card issuer is signing up for is improving, but it needs to move up a little bit higher, right? So we’re spending marketing dollars to direct -- to redirect consumers to our credit card issuer partners. We’re getting paid a certain amount per approval. And the more that they approve, the more that we will benefit. Right now, as we try to build back revenue and take market share in card, we’re doing so with a very modest VMM contribution, sub-10%. That’s the right strategy for the business as we try to get more issuer wallet, and that’s how we’re going to rebuild the business. And I just -- looking back on it, it’s a pretty -- it can be a very meaningful segment. And so we think it’s the right strategy. This is a segment, obviously, $17. 6 million of revenue in Q1.But $51 million in Q1 a year ago. We know the capacity is there. We’ve just got to take the steps to get back to that partner wallet, and that’s what we’re doing. So as we look at the remainder of the year, we are conservative with respect to forecast. We think that margin is going to come back. We’re probably most conservative in card, okay, and then a little bit more positive on personal loan. But the timing of personal loan is just hard because we know that consumers have not built up a great deal of credit card debt. So that’s -- it’s the only business, Jed, to your question on unit economics, it’s the only business that’s really operating at a structurally different margin profile. And that is -- that’s by choice as we build it back. You know the drivers with respect to Home and why that’s operating in a lower VMM at the moment. But personal loan is exactly where it was.