J.D. Moriarty
Analyst · UBS
Thanks Doug. I couldn't agree more on the progress. I'd like to spend a few minutes walking through the fourth quarter financial results and provide some color on our first quarter guidance before we open up the call for Q&A. I'll discuss our Q4 results in the context of our newly introduced segment reporting, which I hope you'll find helpful in understanding the underlying drivers of performance. As a reminder, we introduced this segment framework at our Investor Day in December, and provided a restatement of historical results under the new framework via an 8-K filing last week. Our goal is to give investors more transparency into segment level profitability, and to isolate discretionary brand spend and its impact on the overall results. The definitions of these new measures and the products encompassed by each segment are clearly outlined in this morning's press release and you can reach out to Trent after the call with any specific questions. Let me first start with our Insurance segment, which continued to run with impressive results delivering revenue in the quarter of $70.9 million up 127% over the prior period or 37% on a pro forma basis. The profitability of the Insurance segment remained strong, with segment profit of $28 million or 39% of revenue. Many of the new initiatives we put in place throughout 2019 are beginning to materialize and the insurance business is off to a terrific start as we enter 2020. Second, the Home segment posted revenue of $65.5 million in the quarter up 3% compared to the prior year. Within Home, revenue from our traditional mortgage products, purchase and refi continued to accelerate growing 16% year-over-year after just returning to positive year-on-year growth in the third quarter. As a reminder, the Home segment includes purchase and refinance mortgage, home equity and reverse mortgage. The latter two were down significantly from Q4, 2018 and that's really a reflection of the market environment. More importantly, the profitability of the Home segment has rebounded incredibly well with segment profit of $26.9 million representing 41% margin and year-on-year growth of 25%. While we've certainly seen some favorability in the macro environment for mortgage, the team has executed incredibly well on a number of fronts to drive this return to growth and improve profitability. We spent much of the year discussing our efforts to better segment traffic at the top of the funnel and to use those learnings to improve our matching algorithms and optimize pricing. Those efforts have clearly begun to payoff and we're encouraged to see continued signs of strength in the mortgage business as we start the new year. And finally, in the Consumer segment, revenue of $113.4 million grew 15% year-on-year, while segment profit of $43.3 million declined 9% year-over-year. Let's put this drop in segment profitability in context. The challenges in the personal loan space were well documented last year. And we covered this extensively at our Investor day. They did persist in the fourth quarter as revenue growth slowed to 5% year-on-year. As we've discussed at length, personal loans are both incredibly strategic and a very profitable business for us. The slowing growth in that business has a material impact on overall profitability. On the positive side, as we progress through Q1, we've begun to see some encouraging signs of a turn in that business. And we're optimistic that the worst is behind us. Clearly, improvement in that key business will be hugely beneficial to our full year picture. The aspect of consumer that, we've not discussed in as much detail is the credit card business. Strategically, we were very happy with the topline growth in card in 2019. As the team posted better than 27% growth in revenue, but as we scaled to take market share with key issuers the profitability in the credit card business lag the topline performance. We acknowledge this at Investor Day. And we said that accepting lower card - lower margin in card was a strategic decision to take market share with key issuers. We've often spoken to the potential volatility in the card business and the fact that investors can and will - pardon me, issuers can and will flex budgets many times irrespective of the performance we deliver for them. That volatility was on display in Q4 as a couple of issuers pulled back budget materially toward the end of the quarter. In addition, we ran some challenges with certain marketing partners in the quarter which caused our unit costs to increase materially in the short run. Some of those costs challenges have extended into the early part of Q1. We think we have a handle on these issues on the cost side, but they did impact the business in the first half of the quarter. So this weakness is reflected in our first quarter guidance, which I'll discuss in a moment. On a much brighter note within consumer our small business offering continues to scale nicely with revenue growth of 61% year-on-year. We've highlighted the small business vertical often throughout 2019 and continue to be incredibly enthusiastic about our prospects in that business. It is clearly an underserved category for small business borrowers and there's a visible opportunity for us to expand the number and types of lenders we work with. Very briefly on the other category, which consists of non-core revenue streams, primarily the reselling of ads to third-parties, we recorded revenue of $5.4 million and a loss of $100,000. For context a year ago, this revenue number was $9.9 million. Given some of the marketing mix decisions we are making this year, we anticipate that this revenue will largely go away moving forward. Summing everything up, consolidated revenue of $255.2 million was up 26% versus the prior year, layering in brand expense $4.2 million in the quarter to the sum of the segment profits variable marketing margin of $93.8 million was up 19% over last year. And finally, in terms of adjusted EBITDA we delivered $45.9 million, growth of 17% over the same period last year and well within our guidance range provided in October. On a GAAP basis, net income from continuing operations came in at $1.5 million or $0.10 per diluted share. Our GAAP results were in part affected by a $7.2 million charge to write-up in fair value the contingent consideration related to the QuoteWizard earnout. On a non GAAP basis adjusted net income per share with $1.12. Now moving on to guidance, the trends we're seeing as we start out the year are encouraging and give us confidence to maintain the full year 2020 outlook, we provided just a couple of months ago at our Investor Day. As a reminder, that outlook calls for approximately 15% growth on both revenue and adjusted EBITDA and for the first time in the last several years does not include the benefit of acquisitions. Looking more specifically at our first quarter guidance introduced this morning, our overall outlook is in line with our internal plan for the year. Our full year plan contemplated muted EBITDA growth in Q1 given both that the Q4 trend in card and the typical step up in OpEx that we always experience in Q1. We are confident that we've taken the right steps to address the marketing issues in card and do not expect them to persist throughout the remainder of the year. On the positive side, both our insurance and mortgage businesses are trending ahead of the growth trajectories we provided with our initial 2020 guide at Investor Day. Out performance in these two businesses will be far more relevant to our overall 2020 financial performance. And we are also hopeful about an improvement in personal loans. For the first quarter, we expect revenue to fall in the range of $296 million to $306 million, which is the midpoint represents growth of 15% over the first quarter of last year. Variable marketing margin is expected to be in the range of $97 million to $104 million, representing 9% growth at the midpoint and adjusted EBITDA as expected in the range of $43 million to $46 million representing growth of 3% at the midpoint. Before we open the line for questions, I'd echo Doug's prior point about the importance of diversification. We are bound to feel volatility in a given business from time-to-time, but the diversification that we've put in place enables us to weather those blips, time and again. While our marketplace continues to improve what is most exciting at LendingTree is the opportunity to capitalize on our unique ability to engage the consumer across all of their financial needs. We are making big progress there and very excited about where we're heading. And with that operator, we can open the line for questions.