Doug Lebda
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open
Thank you, J.D., and welcome to your first earnings call as LendingTree's Chief Financial Officer. We are thrilled to have you here, and for those of you on the phone, thank you for joining the call today. We’ve a very simple story for Q3, record revenue, record profits, and exceptional growth. I am proud to report that all of our marketplaces are performing exceptionally well, enabling us to continue to diversify, reinvest in the business and focus on executing our strategic plan. This boils down to the flywheel effect. The momentum that we’ve been building on the past several years and overall accumulation of effort, decisions, acquisitions and more, all apply to one consistent strategic direction. In the third quarter, we saw total loan request from consumers increased 48% compared to the third quarter 2016, and our lender network grew 25% over the same period. In mortgage, 15 out of the top 20 lenders on our network increased spend with us year-over-year with a median spend increase of 46%. This is another example of how well the flywheel is spinning, as lenders allot more marketing spend with LendingTree, it allows us to market to more consumers in high-quality channels, enabling us to match those consumers with more lenders, and so on. On top of that, we are working with lenders to understand their unit economics to ensure that our lenders and partners are successful as well. This effect extends into nonmortgage as well, where we are able to leverage the strength of the LendingTree brand and product offerings from partners on our lender network. As J.D. mentioned, nonmortgage revenue now substantially exceeds mortgage revenue, although both continue to grow, which is a remarkable achievement for our team. In home equity, we saw a continued exponential growth as home values improve and more consumers tap into the equity in their homes. Since into the third quarter 2016, request from consumers increased 97%, revenue increased 176%, and we have added an additional 9 lenders to the network. The triple digit revenue growth was once again driven by a combination of strong volume growth and consumer demand, along with match rate improvement. The credit category continues to scale, fueled in part by the successful integration of CompareCards and MagnifyMoney, with many more opportunities ahead. In fact, revenue from credit cards has surpassed that of personal loans and is now roughly half the size of mortgage. The larger categories in nonmortgage are achieving real scale, and that is incredibly gratifying as it confirms that our strategy is working. But this success should not be overshadowed -- should not overshadow the great contributions from a number of our smaller categories, like student loans, which increased lender spend by 58% year-over-year, and saw a nice lift during the seasonally important third quarter. Autos, reverse mortgage and small business are all critical to our strategy and mission, which is to advance LendingTree's leadership position in all categories where we compete. A year ago, we laid out our strategic plan with four key pillars: expanding into new categories; strengthening in the customer relationship; improving the customer experience; and funnel optimization. I am once again thrilled to report that we are seeing notable progress in each area. Let's start with the new categories. We remain committed to expanding into new categories and gaining scale in all loan types. Let me highlight two examples. In September, we announced LendingTree's acquisition of SnapCap, an online platform that takes a unique approach to connecting small businesses with lenders. This acquisition enables us to expand our presence in the small business space, leveraging SnapCap's high-touch approach to helping small business owners find the financing that they need to grow. We've completed the initial integration of SnapCap into our business lending network and we are well into the next integration phase. Another category we are focused on is helping consumers who aren't eligible for loans at this time. Through growing partnerships in the credit repair and credit counseling space, we've made sure that borrowers who may not qualify for loans have access to the tools needed to improve their situations, and we are beginning to see real traction as we grow this category. This is consistent with our strategic expansion plan, but also key to our mission to help all consumers. The second pillar of our strategy is to strengthen our relationship with the consumer, and the key part of this is our logged in experience, My LendingTree, where we are focused on driving engagement, enhancing our connection with consumers, and we’ve seen a 60% year-over-year improvement in engagement through the platform and now have over 6.5 million users on My LendingTree, which represents an increase of over 175% compared to the same time last year. The launch of home value estimates, nearby sales and a redesigned mortgage trade line page have driven significant wins in engagement and added home equity and refinance through the platform. Additionally, the My LendingTree app now has a 4.9 star rating in the App Store, as improvements and new features continue to rollout. We will be announcing additional features in the coming weeks that are focused on further engaging consumers by providing deeper insights, recommendations, and savings opportunities. Our third pillar is reimagining the customer journey. And here, we are focused on providing a consumer experience that meets their specific needs. One area we are focused on is creating a fully digital mortgage experience. We’ve increased digital integration with the lenders on our network and now have 57 lenders live on the digital mortgage product, with several lenders in the pipeline. The digital mortgage experience allows consumers to review and compare mortgage offers online at any hour and enables borrowers to apply directly online, making the process faster and more convenient. In fact, we’ve seen the timeframe between initial shopping for a mortgage to the loan close decline over the past year. It's a median of 7 days, thanks in part to the digital integration efforts. Our fourth strategic pillar is to fully optimize the conversion funnel from an ad unit to loan funding, and we continue to see meaningful improvement. Continuous testing is providing a substantial lift in our form conversions and lender closings. Efficiency gains in the LendingTree network flow-through directly to benefit our lenders. We are focusing on lenders' unit economics and cost per funded loan to maximize the value of working with LendingTree, particularly versus our competitors. Before moving on to our revised outlook for the remainder of the year, I'd once again like to thank the LendingTree team. I continue to be more and more impressed by the caliber of talent we’ve at this company and that we continue to recruit. Now turning to our guidance. With yet another consecutive quarter of outperformance, we’ve -- we are increasing our full-year guidance for the third time this year, providing further upside to both revenue and EBITDA. For the year, we are increasing revenue to $603 million to $608 million compared with our prior guidance of $580 million to $590 million, which now reflects year-over-year growth of nearly 60%. On variable marketing margin, we are now anticipating $202 million to $205 million, up from $190 million to $195 million, and adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be in the range of $111 million to $113 million, an increase from the prior range of $103 million to $106 million. As we've discussed in the last call, we do expect seasonality to play a prominent role in the fourth quarter, as it has in years past. That said, our outlook for Q4 has improved materially from just three months ago. Revenue in Q4 is now expected to be 145 to 150 -- I am sorry, $146 million to $151 million compared to the prior implied range of $140 million to $145 million. VMM is now anticipated in the range of $51 million to $54 million in Q4, and adjusted EBITDA moves up to $25.5 million to $27.5 million versus the previous range of $24 million to $25 million. As J.D. pointed out in his remarks, we do intend to pull forward some hiring from 2018 into the current year, and those assumptions are already reflected in these updates. As for our 2018 projections, we are close to finalizing our annual planning process and we plan to provide our 2018 guidance at our Investor Day in December. We'll host that event in New York on December 13, and you could expect more details in the coming weeks. To wrap up, I’m extremely proud of the progress we’ve made over the past few quarters. Having consistently outperformed this year, we are well on our way to delivering our third straight quarter of more than 50% top line growth and more than 60% EBITDA growth. The flywheel continues to spin, and I’m beyond excited for what the future holds. With that, I'll open-up for questions.