Earnings Labs

LendingTree, Inc. (TREE)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Mon, Oct 26, 2015

$50.40

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the LendingTree Incorporated Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. [Operator instructions] As a reminder, this conference call maybe recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to, Gabe Dalporto, Chief Financial Officer. You may begin.

Gabriel Dalporto

Analyst

Thanks, operator, and thanks everyone for joining us today for LendingTree's third quarter 2015 earnings conference call. First, a quick disclaimer. During this call, we may discuss LendingTree's plans, expectations, outlook or forecasts for future performance. These forward-looking statements are typically preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate, we are looking to, or other similar statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and LendingTree Inc's. actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Many but not all of the risks we face are described in LendingTree's periodic reports filed with the SEC. On this call, we will discuss a number of non-GAAP measures, and I refer you to today's press release available on our website at investors.lendingtree.com for the comparable GAAP measures, definitions and full reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to GAAP. The third quarter marked our fourth consecutive quarter of record revenue and our seventh consecutive quarter of record variable marketing margin. We generated revenue growth of 69% year-over-year and accelerated from 8% sequential growth in the second quarter to 27% in Q3. And we once again translated our top line growth into profitability growing adjusted EBITDA to $11 million. Let's first discuss mortgage. Revenue from our mortgage product increased to $44.2 million in the third quarter, up a remarkable 38% compared to the third quarter last year and up 19% sequentially from our previous high. Our substantial growth in mortgage represents increases in both purchase and refinance and was driven primarily by our sales efforts. The addition of new lenders combined with expanding wallet share from existing lenders provided for improved monetization enabling us to invest heavily in marketing and to drive increase consumer traffic. Our non-mortgage products was performed exceptionally well, also experienced accelerated growth in the third quarter,…

Douglas Lebda

Analyst

Thanks, Gabe, and thank you everyone for joining the call today. Now that Gabe discussed our financial results for the quarter, I'd like to share some perspective on the business and provide an update on our outlook for the remainder of this year and next year. As reflected in our results, LendingTree performed exceptionally well in the third quarter, exceeding our own expectations and the Street's expectations across the board. Our team is successfully scaling our business, producing high quality consumer traffic, while still growing our customer base. In our mortgage business, this was a remarkably strong quarter. We continue to profitably ramp our sales efforts, while at the same time meeting lenders cost per funded loan goals, which is the highest priority among our network lenders. We've added18 net new lenders in Q3 alone, while at the same time, significantly increasing sales within our existing network. We once again outperformed the overall mortgage industry and considering the quarter's declining interest rate environment, where lenders typically experience more organic volume, this is a significant accomplishment for us. We're seeing growth in refinance and purchase and significant growth with major banks and retail mortgage companies. Additionally, our pay per call product continues to scale. We've added several new lenders to this product and they tell us consistently that we are helping them increase conversion rates, increase capacity to take more volume and scale their businesses with us. Moving into our non-mortgage products, I'm even more thrilled with our progress there. In personal loans, we continue to grow volume month-over-month with substantial increases from several different marketing channels. We have been investing heavily and growing revenue for this product and cross selling personal loans to our existing customer base through e-mail and My LendingTree. We remain deeply focused on improving conversion rates…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of John Campbell of Stephens, Inc. Your line is now open.

John Campbell

Analyst

Hey, guys. Good morning, and congrats on a great quarter.

Douglas Lebda

Analyst

Thank you.

John Campbell

Analyst

I guess, just first, Doug, the credit card rev that's a really good result, something we were looking for, it's a nice work getting that done, but I know you mentioned you guys have relationships with multiple different issuers now. But just curious as far as 3Q 2015 results, was that driven by one or two used issuers or is that multiple or is it kind of evenly spread?

Douglas Lebda

Analyst

It's definitely evenly spread, some issuers still pay us more than others. But the key thing for credit card is really simply this, once we've now got the payouts, roughly equivalent to where let's say a bank rate or credit card is then we can step on the marketing gas and use our marketing advantage to go get even more share and that's basically what we are doing. The expected value of a credit card user has increased substantially just as issuers get more comfortable with us, and we're just marketing into that.

John Campbell

Analyst

Got it, got it. It makes sense. And then Doug on the, I guess, Gabe or Doug on the mortgage – I think you said that was expected to kind of sequentially grow each quarter and that's going to be pretty good result. If you think about the industry at the mortgage market kind of flip into more of a headwind over the next few quarters, so what kind of gives you the confidence about the mortgage growth sequentially from here?

Douglas Lebda

Analyst

I think the mortgage growth really just comes back to and non-mortgage as well, just comes back to the – the penetration of the market. So, LendingTree is facilitating roughly probably 1.5% of all of the mortgages in the U.S. I mean it's about 1.2%, and 1.3% that's increased substantially over the last few years, but we're in the early days of that moving online substantially. So we're seeing lenders consistently increasing their buys with us, consistently shutting down other channels that they could work with, and it's hitting their goals, and they want more of it. So now we're getting lenders to – actually in some instances even scaling up just to take more LendingTree volume.

John Campbell

Analyst

Got it. Got it. Thanks. Just if can squeeze one here, on the...

Douglas Lebda

Analyst

Approved.

John Campbell

Analyst

On the LendingTree, just anything you can provide anecdotally as far as user conversions or anything of it – any kind of net new sales you're seeing out of some of the – some of the guys you're signed up?

Douglas Lebda

Analyst

So, I could, but I – I would rather not at this time and the reason is – it's just a competitive – it's just a competitive thing for us and our competitors all like to parse these conference calls and analyze them. I can't tell you that the marketing to drive that customer is paying off within the first three months or four months and is continuing to decline. So, with those kind of payoffs, there is no reason that we can't continue to grow that channel through both paid marketing as well as just organic volume it comes that comes off of LendinTree and just organic volume from people hearing about it.

John Campbell

Analyst

Excellent. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Kerry Rice of Needham & Company. Your line is open.

Kerry Rice

Analyst

Thanks. Great quarter, guys. Maybe back to the visibility question. Inherently, I guess, within the customer acquisition and filling that funnel, it's a little bit lumpy, there is not long-term contract. Can you talk about a little bit more about how you feel confident, or why you feel confident to give 2016 guidance at this point?

Douglas Lebda

Analyst

So first of on 2016 guidance, this is our practice has always been to do it on the third quarter conference call. And we just feel good about where we are, particularly as you look at where the business is run rating. Today, I don't think that the guidance we are putting out is that big of a leap. In addition to that, really the whole physics of the business work on the customer acquisition costs against the expected revenue. And with lenders increasing their buys like they are, with credit policy expanding moving into lower loan amounts, moving into lower credit bands, someone are moving into higher credit bands that just has a turbo charging on the whole business, which enables us to go out and market even more. So I think -- I'm thrilled that we were able to increase our offline spendable level that we were, and still drive profitability and I'd expect that to continue and then the offline spend helps the online spend. And I'm hoping to get back to the days where the revenues are a lot higher and the marketing to drive that as even a lot higher. But we just have – we're just seeing with lenders they just keep wanting more from us and we just keep giving it to them.

Kerry Rice

Analyst

Okay, great. Second question is just around the personal loans business. Can you talk a little bit about industry trend, particularly as price moves up, are you finding a price per loan moves up? Are you seeing any of the lenders look for other channels or kind of shift in any of the spending away from online channel to either partnerships or I think that you see is a lot of direct mail, but any – anything, any color there?

Douglas Lebda

Analyst

Sure. So, one thing that we're actually seeing and this is believe it or not a good thing, is it on a cost per funded loan basis, we are seeing pricing actually go down. And that's happening because conversion rates are going up. So, because lenders are increasingly effective at closing these loans, their cost per funded loan goes down, which obviously gives them room to not only up their bids, but also to expand the population of customers if they want. So, we're definitely, the trends I think are our friend in personal loans as well, that said obviously, particularly the online lenders are, they do believe it or not a lot of direct mail for example and drive a lot of volume that way. They also get volume from Credit Karma and they get some volume from BankRate, but LendingTree hits their cost per funded loan goals and then the best brand in the business can go market against that. And in addition to that, I'm starting to hear some very good signals from the banks and the non sort of just online vendors, who I believe will aggressively get into this space, because it's quite frankly not rocket science to have an instant approval online for a personal loan in the same way that big banks did it probably a decade ago even for home equity loans, where they also needed an appraisal or at least an automated valuation, which I would say to home equity, I expect to be the next kind of growth engine to come back as we're getting a lot of, a lot of good inquiries on home equity as well and then we'll start marketing back into that category also.

Kerry Rice

Analyst

All right. Thank you, Doug.

Gabriel Dalporto

Analyst

Yeah this is...just to emphasize Doug's point around bank lenders and others, we see a lot of interest in launching even more personal loans lenders, so we think that over time that market will just get deeper and deeper and more and more competitive for these.

Douglas Lebda

Analyst

Yeah the banks, definitely the banks and major financial institutions are not going to seed a big category to the online lenders and there'll be in the game as well.

Kerry Rice

Analyst

All right. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Hamed Khorsand of BWS Financial. Your line is now open.

Hamed Khorsand

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Could we start with, you're talking very positively about what your conversion rates are and bankers -- banks spending more with you, but it's transitioning to the EBITDA line, why isn't there scale on the business and why are you spending, so much on sales and marketing?

Douglas Lebda

Analyst

So the spend with LendingTree, first-off I mean, Hamed I think we've talked about this before. We believe, we market as far as we can to increase dollar profitability, so my analogy I'd like to get used with investors as if we only had a 10% variable marketing margin but spend $1 billion on marketing and that all fell through to the bottom-line we'd all be pretty happy. And I think that and what we did this quarter and I always call it out, as we always try to, we always endeavor want always happen not going with, but I -- with the trends been our friend for the last seven years and we've been able to execute. We always call out whenever we make additional investments in product technology or marketing and if we've – and in addition to that the offline advertising typically pays itself back over the next four months to six months. So if we have good news, we continue to spend to grow the business, so we try to maintain a balance between revenue growth and sustained an increase in profitability and that's what we're we are doing. EBITDA is up obviously about 90% year-over-year, and 25% quarter-over-quarter. So, on a percentage basis, you'll see those numbers move around, but we focus on bottom line dollars really.

Hamed Khorsand

Analyst

Okay. And then on the My LendingTree side, can you provide us any kind of data as far as how the customer traction is after they sign up? Is there any improvement as far as how long they stay connected with My LendingTree, and what you're seeing from the original million customers that did sign up with you?

Gabriel Dalporto

Analyst

Yeah. So I can, and I won't give specific numbers on this just because of competitive intelligence, but more definitely seeing monetization continue to increase the longer that people are on the side. In addition to that, it gets better for the new so called cohorts, who come on the site just because of the increased user experience – the better user experience, more frequency of alerts and just refining our logic in terms of when we reach out to people. So, one little small example for is that – for example we have to – every time we pull somebody's credit, there is obviously a cause to that, so we are getting better at predicting what changes in people's credit is and then when to send them alert. And I expect that trend to continue and at some point we'll report on all the monetization statistics of it, but it's safe to say that my LendingTree is definitely helping us to improve the – my LendingTree is definitely helping to improve our overall marketing cost and give us repeat business that's really staying sticky and by the way consumers are loving it. We're getting great feedback, but this is a great product for consumers. And I think compared to the other ones out there, we're at least equal to, if not a little better on some aspects.

Hamed Khorsand

Analyst

So, is it profitable yet?

Gabriel Dalporto

Analyst

[indiscernible] few anecdotal points. If you look back or as we look back at some of the initial cohorts when we launched the product in June 2014 and July 2014, those cohorts are still generating a pretty significant revenue, on revenue per user basis. So, we can – we are seeing that over time, we get repeated monetization even from some of our oldest cohorts.

Hamed Khorsand

Analyst

All right. Is that a profitable yet?

Gabriel Dalporto

Analyst

Oh, absolutely. Now it's even on a paid marketing basis, it's profitable. As I said within the first three months to four months and obviously if we're capturing it from organic volume off of a LendingTree or just free traffic from the web it's even – it's obviously very profitable, but yeah, yeah, on a paid marketing basis, just like all of our other products we can advertise free credit reports and actually make that profitable pretty quickly.

Hamed Khorsand

Analyst

All right. Great. I appreciate it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from line of Josh Goldberg a G2 Investment Partners. Your line is now open.

Josh Goldberg

Analyst

Hi, guys. Good morning. First obviously congratulations on just strong results, great call out the, the whole team Doug, Nikul, Gabe, Neil, [ph] Trent really just across the board almost 30% sequential growth from 69% year-over-year growth someone that's been in the company for this long, hard to believe, but congratulations. I guess, for me, it's just – it sounds like the next real growth engine can be credit cards. And if you look back at last year, personal loans kind of ticked up to about 3 million or so at this time last year and a year later, it's 15 million. And obviously it notes a different industry, in different regions, why it could go faster or slower, but do you feel that you're in position to have a credit card growth of that nature over the next 12 months to 18 months, and I have a follow-up?

Douglas Lebda

Analyst

Without getting the specific numbers, thank you for the kind words. I absolutely belief credit card can be the next significant growth engine for the company. And if you look at our share – if you compare, let's say our penetration in the online mortgage category, compared to some of our competitors and then you go over to credit card, we're just barely penetrating the credit card market, obviously bank rate owns something called creditcards.com, which is – I believe that's a $300 million business top line. I mean – so there is significant increases that we can make in cards and we think the LendingTree brand plays incredibly well, particularly compared to the brands out there. So, credit card is a unique animal in that -- you get improved monetization, as credit card companies get comfortable with the quality and with your compliance and with the volume that you can send them and once you saw those challenges, the payouts go up and then we can step on the marketing gas.

Josh Goldberg

Analyst

Okay, great. And then just on the mortgage side, obviously 38% top line growth in an environment, where mortgage originations are not growing at that level. Is there some breakdown you can give us of purchase versus refi, where you saw some of the upside relative to your expectations and obviously the level of confidence that this will continue, it is clearly the number one market in terms of size overall. And like you said, you are less than 2% in that market, even though it's a huge part of your revenue. So, maybe talk about what's really happened that sort of – kind of the pig in the pole that kind of got things going here in the third quarter and why you see it going forward?

Gabriel Dalporto

Analyst

Got it. So, purchase and refi are both growing and they are both growing and I know this seems, this might seem simplistic, they are growing because it's – it works for the lenders and if it works, they want to do it more and if we go back to a travel analogy or any kind of really search business analogy, once we get increased conversion rates, lenders want more of it, they upbids, they expand the categories that they are looking, they reduce their loan amounts and we get tremendous leverage on our model output, not only conversion rate from lead to close, but also the percentage of customers that we match and the number of times that we can match them. If you think about LendingTree matching let's say roughly 70% or 80% of mortgage customers with at least one lender, that's in Google terms, back in the day imagine a 20% or 30%, the people didn't have any paid search results and they weren't able to monetize those customers. We are monetizing more customers, we're monetizing those customers better and it's happening because of increased conversion rates on both purchase and refi.

Douglas Lebda

Analyst

And I think -- I just add up to our sales team here, they've done a phenomenal job of really embedding deeply with our lenders, growing that wallet share, helping them understand where they can make money and how they can scale their businesses, and then also adding new lenders, and banks have really kind of picked up their orders with us. So we are trying to put ourselves in a position to dominate under any type of mortgage environment, rising rate or falling rate to have a deep bench of lenders that's the economics work for, that are continuing to ask for more volumes. So really we had some rate progress on the sales side, this....

Josh Goldberg

Analyst

How much success are you getting in some of these bigger Tier 1 banks, which -- with your local introduction of product, with some of your other new enhancements on mortgage, can you really have that, that funnel really pickup as well?

Douglas Lebda

Analyst

Yes.

Gabriel Dalporto

Analyst

Yes. I think as the...

Douglas Lebda

Analyst

I think and when we're talking about banks, that's a big piece of the story is, the top banks in United States and we've got really good traction of them.

Gabriel Dalporto

Analyst

Yes, and when I, again I'll give you my search analogy or even a travel analogy the early days of online hotel shopping, if you went and looked for a hotel in New York City, you probably got the independent or the smaller hotels and then over time, the big guys start playing. And the big guys are, they want more volume. I just was at a bank conference a couple of week ago – a couple of weeks ago. And when I compared the size of their marketing budgets to the amount that they are spending online, their online spend is a fraction of what their offline spend is. And their comparison shopping spend with their marketplace spend is very, very small. So with the call product and the local introduction of product that business really helps to scale, even with the biggest banks.

Josh Goldberg

Analyst

Okay. Great. Well, thanks again. Congratulations and keep up the great works.

Douglas Lebda

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. And I am showing no further questions at the time. I'd like to hand call back over to Doug Lebda for any closing remarks.

Douglas Lebda

Analyst

Thank you very much, operator. And again thank you to everybody else. It's been just a thrill to run this company and to work with a team that – we get to work with and just see the continued growth and I seem to say this almost every quarter, but I'm still more optimistic than I've ever been. I keep guessing more optimistic and it really is the in a simple notion that on lender side, we're getting great conversion rates from lenders. We're able to add new products, able to penetration deeper into their spend. And on the other side of marketing just leverage the LendingTree brand, which is the best brand in this space, which makes our offline marketing very efficient and then obviously makes our online more efficient, and we – our penetration of – of these products today is very low over the next even 10 years. It's going to track to something where I believe that consumers are going to be comparison shopping for loans, as a standard in the same way they comparison shop online for everything else and the best days are certainly ahead of us and we're still very much in the early innings here. So, thank you all very much. We'll talk to you next quarter.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. That does conclude today's program. You may all disconnect. Have a great day everyone.