Douglas Lebda
Analyst · Value Advisory
Yes, so the MBA statistics, our purchases, up 16, refi, down 36 for a net market contraction of down 20. Keep in mind, the interplay for us, though, is when refi goes down, lenders still want to do it but they'll just pay more to get it. And so our pricing will go up, our transmit rate, transmits per et cetera will all go up. We do not give detailed transparency on that because, when we did it before, honestly, everybody modeled it wrong. So then people did, "Oh my god. When refi goes away, your current metrics hold," and they believe the metrics is constant. We take the volume away and it just doesn't happen. It switches on a dime, and we see it even inside of a week. If rates tick up a little bit, our marketing cost goes up, but so does our unit economics on the revenue side and so we manage the business at that VMM dollar level. So it'll be harder to get the lead, but lenders will pay a lot more for them. And net-net, we feel that those balance each other out and that it's a share gain. It's how can we get more share of spend, and how can we get more share of traffic? And seeing that we're a 1% share player today, should LendingTree, with a 17-some-odd-percent brand awareness, be a 2%, 3% and 4% share of the U.S. mortgage market? We think the answer better be yes, or we don't deserve to do what we're doing. And so that's where it comes into -- I mean, it's -- there's really only 3 things we do here. We sell to our advertisers, we market to our consumers and we build a better product that'll make us less dependent on paid marketing over time and given our share of consumers, if you look at our competitors, they're -- a lot of them are bigger and we can steal share of the consumer side with airways that we know. We know we can have a better product to make us indispensable to the consumer. And we can certainly sell more to lenders. So that's what drives us, not the overall -- not the market going up or down. We intentionally put variability of pricing and on the marketing side into the business so that we -- so that our overall business is not variable. It's just a different equation of supply and demand.