Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) Q1 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Greetings. Welcome to Travel + Leisure's First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference is being recorded. At this time, it is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Andrew Burns, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you, Andrew. You may now begin.

Thank you, Rob. Good morning, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that our discussion today will include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and the forward-looking statements made today are effective only as of today. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise these statements. The factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed in our SEC filings and our press release accompanying this earnings call. You can find a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in the earnings press release available on our Investor Relations website. Please note that all references to EBITDA, net income, diluted earnings per share and free cash flow made during the call are on an adjusted basis as disclosed in our earnings release. This morning, Michael Brown, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of our results and our longer-term growth strategy. And then Erik Hoag, our Chief Financial Officer, will provide greater detail on our results, capital allocation strategy and outlook for 2026. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the call up for questions. Finally, all comparisons today are to the same period of the prior year, unless specifically stated. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mike.

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Travel + Leisure delivered another great quarter. Thanks to the hard work of our team, we are carrying forward the positive momentum achieved in 2025. First quarter EBITDA exceeded guidance, driven by strong execution in our Vacation Ownership business and resilient owner demand. In the quarter, we achieved gross VOI sales growth of 7% EBITDA margin expansion of 180 basis points and EPS growth of 31%. Our strategy starts with delivering outstanding vacation experiences for our owners and members. We convert that owner satisfaction into recurring demand, predictable cash flow and consistent capital returns. Our first quarter results are a clear validation of that strategy and a proof point of the durability of our model even as the macroeconomic environment remains uncertain. In the quarter, we generated revenue of $961 million, EBITDA of $225 million and EPS of $1.45 with compounding growth across the P&L. We are seeing continued strength in our Vacation Ownership business with 7% gross VOI sales growth and above planned VPG. Tour growth of 5% was above our 2025 tour growth rate of 3%. I'd like to emphasize that we achieved these impressive results while executing on our resort optimization initiative, which naturally pressures those metrics. During the quarter, we returned $128 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Our dividend increased 7% to $0.60 per share, and we repurchased 1.2 million shares in the quarter. At the same time, we are investing in the business to drive long-term profitable growth. We continue to make meaningful progress advancing our multi-brand strategy and digital road map and this balanced approach, delivering near-term results and returning meaningful cash to investors while investing for the future is central to how we create long-term shareholder value. Since our last call, macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risk have been prominent in the news. I'd like to start with recent trends we are seeing with our consumer and across the business. Overall, our owner base remains healthy. They are prioritizing travel, and we are not seeing any meaningful shifts in their behavior. First quarter gross bookings were up year-over-year. The booking window remains steady at approximately 100 days and average length of stay is unchanged year-over-year at just over 4 days. The distance traveled to our resorts in Q1 was actually up slightly to last year, indicating consumers' willingness to travel to our resorts. The data suggests that in uncertain economic times, our value proposition becomes even more relevant. For the 80% of owners that have paid off their loan, they are vacationing for the cost of annual maintenance fees. This value proposition is clear to our owners and is best reflected in our 97% retention rate for owners that are current on their loan or have paid it off. As we enter our peak sales season, we are mindful of the macro backdrop and its potential to influence consumer behavior. That said, the trends we are seeing remain healthy. Our value proposition continues to resonate and the model is performing as designed, positioning us to outperform across cycles. During the quarter, we continued to make meaningful progress advancing our multi-brand strategy and saw clear proof points of its success. Margaritaville is rapidly approaching $150 million in annual VOI sales, reflecting the success of our revitalization efforts and new partnerships. In the Accor Vacation Club brand, we expect to nearly double our VOI sales in 2026. We also began selling Eddie Bauer Adventure Club at select sales centers. In March, we welcomed guests to our first Eddie Bauer Resort in Moab, Utah. We are seeing strong interest and early momentum has exceeded our expectations. Sports Illustrated Resorts sales are now underway at our new Nashville sales center. We also announced our new Sports Illustrated resort location in Baton Rouge, home to Louisiana State University and Southern University. As the brand's fourth resort, Baton Rouge is a highly complementary sports-centric university market that fits well within the clubs growing portfolio. Overall, combined VOI sales from these brands are expected to approach 10% of our sales mix this year, and we expect that to increase further in the years ahead. Scaling our multi-brand strategy remains a critical pillar of our long-term growth plan, enabling us to reach new customer segments and meaningfully expand our addressable market. The progress we are seeing across the portfolio gives us confidence that this strategy is gaining traction and developing as we envisioned. On the partnership front, we recently renewed and expanded a 5-year agreement with United Parks & Resorts, owner of SeaWorld and Busch Gardens, building on the highly successful strategic partnership that began in 2013. In addition to our current on-site kiosk and promotional activations, the new agreement expands our presence across additional parks. This meaningfully increases our ability to introduce new families to our Vacation Club offerings and provide current owners with exclusive events and experiences. Overall, the expanded partnership strengthens our top-of-funnel demand prospects and supports new owner growth. Turning to the resort optimization initiative we announced last quarter. This effort involves removing a small number of aging, lower demand resorts to strengthen our overall resort system for owners while also improving the financial health of Travel + Leisure and our club HOAs. I'm pleased to report that we are realizing all the expense savings outlined last quarter, and we've been able to sustain our historical sales growth rates despite the resort closures. In summary, we've started 2026 from a position of strength with clear visibility into the key drivers of our performance and momentum in our core Vacation Ownership business. We are reiterating our full year outlook, and I remain confident in our ability to drive growth, generate meaningful cash flow and continue creating long-term shareholder value. Now I'll turn the call over to Erik to further elaborate on our results, capital allocation framework and outlook. Erik?

Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. I'll frame my comments in 3 parts: how the business performed, how we ran it and how we're allocating capital. Starting with performance. First quarter results were ahead of our expectations, continuing the trajectory we discussed on our February call despite a more volatile macro backdrop. What stands out is not just the strength of our results, but how the business performs across different environments. The compounding in the first quarter is clear. Revenue grew 3% EBITDA grew 11%, net income grew 22% and earnings per share grew 31% with tour flow feeding the top line and operating leverage and capital allocation driving outsized growth in earnings per share. Looking at our Vacation Ownership business, this segment continues to operate at a high level with results in the quarter showing steady demand and strong execution. Gross VOI sales were $549 million, up 7% year-over-year, driven by tour flow growth of 5% and continued strength in volume per guest, which increased 3% to $3,321. Tour flow remained strong in the quarter, consistent with the momentum we saw exiting 2025. While our new owner mix was slightly below prior year levels, we remain confident that it will increase as the year progresses. Top of funnel demand remains strong, and we view mix in the quarter as more a function of conversion dynamics rather than a change in underlying demand. Segment EBITDA was $191 million, up 20% year-over-year, with margin expansion driven by operating leverage, improved inventory efficiency and the benefits of our resort optimization initiative. From a broader perspective, demand remains stable. While we're always mindful of the macro environment, it's important to remember that most of our VOI sales come from existing owners who have effectively prepaid for their vacations. As a result, their travel behavior is less sensitive to economic changes, and our performance is driven by the strength of those long-term relationships through repeat usage, retention and ongoing upgrade activity over time. Credit performance remains within our expectations with provision rates slightly down year-over-year in the first quarter. We are seeing some movement in early-stage delinquencies, particularly in more recent vintages, which we would expect to influence provision over time. With that said, we still expect our full year provision rate to be modestly below prior year levels. The underlying credit profile of new originations remains healthy with weighted average FICO scores remaining above 740 and average down payments trending above 20%. Turning to Travel and Membership. In the quarter, transactions were flat year-over-year, reflecting a continued mix shift within the business with declines in exchange activity, offset by growth in travel clubs. Exchange membership was approximately 3.3 million subscribers, down about 2% year-over-year. As expected, the mix shift continues to pressure revenue per transaction and segment revenue was $165 million, down 8% year-over-year. Segment EBITDA was $59 million, down 13%. This reflects the continued mix shift within the business with declines in the higher-margin exchange business and growth in lower-margin travel clubs. Travel and Membership remains a capital-light, high-margin business that generates significant free cash flow. Our focus is on managing the business for cash and flexibility as we reposition the platform to improve returns over time. Shifting to the balance sheet. We exited the quarter with leverage in line with our expectations, just below 3.2x. As a reminder, leverage typically trends higher earlier in the year and declines as we generate free cash flow over the course of the year. Liquidity remains strong with over $1 billion of available capacity, including cash on hand and our revolver, supported by consistent free cash flow generation and the continued access to the securitization markets. In March, we executed our first ABS transaction of the year, raising $325 million at a 98% advance rate and 5.1% coupon. This transaction reflects our ability to access capital at rates well below the average interest rate on our portfolio, creating significant net interest income even in a more volatile macro environment. Overall, the balance sheet provides the liquidity and flexibility to allocate capital across growth opportunities and return meaningful cash to shareholders. Before I review our outlook, I want to take a moment to discuss capital allocation. Our framework remains unchanged. We focus on deploying capital where it generates the highest risk-adjusted return on a per share basis while maintaining a resilient balance sheet and returning excess capital to shareholders through a consistent dividend and share repurchases. When returns are compelling, we also pursue opportunistic M&A that is well aligned with our strategy and accretive to growth. When you step back, the business continues to generate returns well above our cost of capital while returning a meaningful portion of that value to shareholders. Moving to the outlook. We are reaffirming our full year 2026 guidance, which reflects continued strength in the Vacation Ownership business, cost management in travel and membership and the impact of our resort optimization initiative. While still early in the year, performance in the first quarter was ahead of our plan, and our full year outlook continues to appropriately reflect both the current environment and the trends we're seeing in the business. For the full year, we continue to expect gross VOI sales to be in the range of $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion, EBITDA in the range of $1.03 billion and $1.055 billion and volume per guest to be in the range of $3,175 and $3,275. We continue to expect to convert roughly half of our full year EBITDA into free cash flow. During the quarter, we took inventory drawdowns in our Chicago and Nashville Sports Illustrated resorts, where sales are now underway. That investment did impact first quarter free cash flow, but does not change our full year free cash flow conversion expectation. We continue to expect our full year adjusted tax rate to be approximately 29% and year-over-year EPS growth to be in the teens, supported by EBITDA growth, lower interest expense and share repurchases. For the second quarter, we expect gross VOI sales to be in the range of $660 million and $690 million, EBITDA in the range of $260 million and $270 million and volume per guest to be in the range of $3,200 and $3,250. This reflects a continuation of first quarter trends, while recognizing that growth can vary across quarters based on mix and timing. Our outlook reflects a business that's performing as expected with downside appropriately managed given the current environment and upside driven by execution. To close, the business continues to perform as designed. We're seeing steady demand, strong execution across the platform and continued conversion of earnings into cash over time. As we move through 2026, we remain focused on executing against our plan, allocating capital to the highest return opportunities and compounding value on a per share basis. Rob, we can now open the line for questions.

[Operator Instructions] And the first question comes from the line of Chris Woronka with Deutsche Bank.

Congratulations on a nice start to the year. Michael, you guys have started off with a nice collection here of the Sports Illustrated, Eddie Bauer and Margaritaville Resorts. So 3 distinct brands in addition to the core brands that you started with. The question is kind of to what extent do you think you can possibly grow those brands further? And are you seeing any attractive opportunities on the hotel conversion front to kind of enable those?

Yes. We're very pleased with how each of the brands. The additional one that I'd add to that is Accor Vacation Club, which is the newest one post-COVID and since our name change. And that, as we mentioned, will double the sales this year. When you look across all of those brands, our anticipation is we want to grow each of them to support the growth of our battleship brand, the Wyndham brand. As we start to look at how each of them can grow, I think the total revenue potential varies by brand. However, as we've stated on a number of calls, is we want to get each of these up to about $200 million plus. And if you start to think about those 4 brands and stack that level of growth, you can have a lot of visibility into that 6% to 8% total VOI run rate for the foreseeable future. Fundamental to our strategy is to do things pragmatically, do a brand, start executing, do another one, start executing. And if you look at the cadence of what we've done in adding brands, added a core, growing that brand, then add the second one and the revitalization of Margaritaville, as you heard, highly successful. And then the last 2, Eddie Bauer, we started lightly last year, and it's really picking up momentum in Q1. And then we'll start Sports Illustrated. So we believe the success of adding new brands is the execution of the ones we already have, starting with Wyndham ending with our latest announcement -- latest start-up sales, which is Sports Illustrated. So those are key to our strategy, and we think we're going to grow. And I think that validates and is providing more clarity and precision around our long-term growth rate on VOI.

Okay. Very helpful. Just as a follow-up, I know you guys mentioned a little bit of uptick in early delinquency activity. I guess I don't know, Erik, if there's any more detail you want to add. And the question that comes out of it is, do you think that ultimately opens up an opportunity to essentially reacquire some of that inventory at favorable pricing? Or are you not quite down that path yet?

Thanks for the question, Chris. So maybe a couple of comments on the loan loss provision. Maybe I'll start with how we actually performed. So maybe even going back to the fourth quarter, fourth quarter provision was roughly 19% was down year-over-year. Full year 2025 provision was 20.7%. The first quarter start to the year, we're down to 19%. So we've had 2 quarters of year-over-year decline. Second, regarding the early-stage delinquency, predominantly in newer cohorts of loans, loans originated over the last several quarters. I do think that these will ultimately manifest into the provision. But third, there are several components to the loan loss provision calculus that I think are worth noting. First, I just mentioned delinquencies. Second, down payment rates, which are up, which is a good guide for the provision for us. FICO scores remain stable and healthy at above 740, which is another good guide for the provision. And maybe the last thing I'd say associated with this is the percentage of sales financed is also down, which is another good guide for the provision. So it's really those elements that give us confidence in projecting that the full year provision should be down year-over-year. And Chris, to your question, yes, when defaults happen, that does give us the ability for us to take that inventory back and resell it at today's prices with a very low cost of sales.

Our next question comes from the line of Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities.

Mike, I wonder if you could just put to bed any concerns, and it sounds like you have already, but just finalize it here. Any changes or concerns for the remaining 3 quarters versus your guidance early in the year? Certainly, the algebra says if you beat on 1Q versus your guide, but maintain implied the rest of the year down slightly. Is it simply just Iran has happened since you reported in mid-February that kind of keeps you cautious and there's nothing else in your business that has -- your outlook has changed. Is that a fair assumption?

You've nailed it, Patrick, but let me first say -- let me first speak to our business. We reported in mid-February. It's 2 months later. Nothing's changed in our confidence in the building for the remainder of this year prospectively. You've seen the results in Q1, which was -- I would characterize as an extremely strong quarter. We had a great Q1 last year. I view this quarter as better. We beat the high end of our range. If you remember last year, we had Liberation Day April 1, I believe it was. And we expressed that, that uncertainty led through in the way we thought about the rest of the year this year. There's a war going on, which creates macro and geopolitical uncertainty. And we don't want to be tone-deaf to that reality. But if you just step back and look at our consumer, great first quarter, 3 weeks into Q2, continued momentum exactly as we saw in Q1. If you look prospectively, yes, it's great to look in the rearview mirror. But looking forward, we look at our summer bookings, they're up year-on-year, a great sign given that Q2 and Q3 is our high season. We get a daily report card in the form of VPG continues to perform extremely well. Erik just spoke that we're monitoring early-stage delinquencies, but that's more retrospective. And I think between the macro uncertainty, not micro uncertainty, we think our business is performing extremely well. I think the last piece of this puzzle is that Q1 is about 21% of our full year number at the consensus point. If that number was 29% versus 21%, we might be having a different conversation. But early in the year, business is performing well, macro economy, we just want to be cognizant of what's going on outside of our business. And given that it's very early in the year, be thoughtful about that. So that was a very extended way to agree with you.

Okay. I just wanted to put that to rest. I'm sure you -- as the quarter progressed, you may get questions, so we have the answer in writing there. Erik, my question for you. You talked about the earlier-stage delinquencies, specifically in newer cohorts. Does that means the newer first-time buyers? And specifically, what is it about those? Is it maybe a little bit weaker -- relatively weaker financial demographic, a younger customer than, say, your less newer or your legacy cohorts? Could you explain a little bit more about that?

Yes. Sure, Patrick. So when I say newer cohorts, these are the more recent cohorts, I think the last 3 quarters. When you sort of double-click into the characteristics within the cohorts, there's not a single attribute that I would say is maybe worth calling out. It's not tied to FICO. It's not tied to product type. It's not tied to income band. It's -- we were seeing a little bit of wobble associated with the loans that have originated in the last several quarters.

Our next questions are from the line of Stephen Grambling with Morgan Stanley.

I think I heard in the comments that you said that the new owner mix was a little bit lower than expected and you attribute that to conversion dynamics. I'm wondering if you could just expand on what is happening in terms of the conversion dynamics there that might be impacting it and how you expect that to evolve over the course of the year?

Stephen, this is Mike. I would say that's a result of a positive story we have, which is growth in our new owner tour growth. There was a lot of commentary last year around our ability to grow new owner tours in Q1. Although our total tour growth was 5%, our new owner tour growth was 7%, which is extremely strong. That's always step one in driving new owner mix into your total business. When we talk about conversion dynamics, basically, our close rate was lower in Q1. That's natural. Anytime you scale the business and grow new owner tour flow or any tour flow, you're likely to suffer maybe a little bit of underperformance on close rates. We've got that, but we've got step 1 accomplished, which is great new owner tour growth in Q1. We think that will continue to be strong as we head into the high season with both our new partnerships and just the way we've developed some of the smaller ones on a regional basis. And we believe, as we tend to do quarter after quarter, improve the execution when we get focused on something that we think is a little bit behind. That's what happened in Q1. But again, I'll just reiterate that probably the big storyline for us in Q1 was the new owner tour growth year-on-year, which was 7%.

That's helpful. And then one unrelated question just on free cash flow. I think you made a couple of comments in the intro remarks. But can you just maybe elaborate on any kind of puts and takes to think about impacting free cash flow conversion over the course of this year? And then maybe if you can remind us how to think through free cash flow conversion differences between the segments even as we think about the Vacation Ownership versus T&M segment?

Sure. So let's start maybe a little bit with free cash flow, and we can talk about the segments on the backside. Free cash flow for the full year, we're reiterating our roughly 50%, roughly half of adjusted EBITDA should convert to free cash flow. I will say that the pace of free cash flow in 2026 will be backloaded. We've got inventory investments that we're making -- we've made in the first quarter associated with Nashville and Chicago. We've got inventory investments in the second quarter as well. So you're going to see the concentration of our free cash flow more back loaded. And then from a conversion perspective, with the benefit of our ABS transactions and being able to generate cash off of those, the free cash flow conversion across segments is very similar.

Our next questions are from the line of David Katz with Jefferies.

I think a lot of the commentary around the VOI business is very clear. What I'd love to get just a little more color on is what you're including as we go through the quarters for the remainder of the year in your guidance for, one, the travel and exchange is flat, the high end of the bracket and down some number, the bottom end, that kind of help is what I'm looking for. And then with respect to the resort optimization, I'd love to get a clearer sense of what exactly you're baking in for the quarters and the remainder of the year and whether comps from that are sort of flat, challenged, et cetera. I think hopefully, that's a clear question.

It is, David. So it's Erik. So let me give you a couple of components associated with what's driving the year for us. So we had mid-single-digit tour flow growth in the first quarter. Our second quarter and our full year expect similar trends, mid-single-digit tour flow growth. We expect gross VOI sales to also be mid-single digits in both the second quarter and in the full year. I think about the Travel and Membership business as a little bit of an extension from where we finished 2025. And some of those stats are the following. The Travel and Membership business was down 9% in 2025. They were down 10% in the fourth quarter. They're down 13% here in the first quarter. So I think an extrapolation of the travel and membership business in 2026 is a fair base case to pursue. And then the resort optimization initiative has been a bit of a tailwind for us to start the year. When the Q is filed later this morning, you're going to see that the developer obligation, our carry costs, that savings is manifesting itself right into the P&L. And the one thing that we are also seeing is that despite the fact that we've closed several sales centers with the resort optimization initiative, our gross VOI sales have continued to remain very strong. So as I think about the rest of the year, it's very much a continuation of the mid-single-digit guide that we've got for the second quarter. It's an extrapolation of travel and membership. It's the manifestation of the resort optimization savings and all of that compounding through the P&L to teens EPS growth as we continue to repurchase shares.

Our next questions are from the line of Ben Chaiken with Mizuho Securities.

Maybe we could talk about WorldMark and Eddie Bauer. I think you said Eddie Bauer was exceeding your expectations. I mean my understanding is that you're effectively combining these 2 portfolios. I would imagine that would create a pretty powerful upgrade opportunity. So my question is, one, am I on the right track regarding this upgrade opportunity? Two, if so, have those upgrades started? And was that contributing to some of the strength in 1Q? And then three, as you see it, is the bigger opportunity upgrading the 180,000 or so WorldMark customers? Or is it selling the new combined portfolio to new customers entirely, the WorldMark, Eddie Bauer?

Great question. Yes, what we're trying to do is basically put a booster to WorldMark. The WorldMark owner base has a clear travel demand. And we've heard time and time again, they love that outdoor experience, the chance for families to be together for pet-friendly resorts and in not urban centers. And the plan for WorldMark is to highly, highly align the Eddie Bauer Adventure Club with it so that it, in effect, operates as a singular club. The success in Q1 is right along the lines of what you laid out, Ben, is it's a new product offering with a slightly different experience that owners are going to get to enjoy. What I would say is, though, even though it exceeded our expectation, I don't think we've really unleashed the full power of what that brand is going to be. And what I mean by that is that in our world, it takes time to get fully registered in all jurisdictions, and we're partially -- we're registered in a few, but not all. We've opened only 9 sales locations. And we've only announced one resort. You can expect more this year, and you can expect more in nice destinations. And I think as the WorldMark base sees those new destinations, the upgrade opportunity, the ability to own WorldMark and buy incremental opportunity or credits into the Eddie Bauer system will only get strengthened. So ultimately, we want to preserve and grow the WorldMark brand through this brand extension, which is the Eddie Bauer Adventure Club. As you mentioned, it's off to a great start. It's on the back mostly of upgrades, but it is our full intention to start feathering into the Eddie Bauer mix, new owners. And I think it really attracts a new opportunity, gives us a new chance to grab some partnerships that maybe otherwise wouldn't be available in some of our other brands.

Understood. That's helpful. And then switching gears a little bit. There's kind of this never-ending question regarding the exchange business. Maybe you can walk us through your feelings on both sides as it pertains to keeping or disposing of the asset and then what your current stance is?

Well, as we've always shared, we're -- we will make our decisions on what we think is best for shareholders and the optimization of return for shareholders. We're all clear on the landscape of the Travel and Membership business. Exchanges in natural industry secular decline for the reasons we've all spoken about in the past. Despite that and despite what's happened over the last 3 to 5 years in that business, we've been able to maintain our overall travel and leisure mid-single digits growth enterprise-wide on an EBITDA basis. We believe that is very much in our grasp despite what's happening on the exchange side. We continue to focus first on organic growth and by adding new business lines and new focus. We think the outlook that we laid out in Travel and Membership is the realistic, but we're looking to outperform that. And outperforming it is not easy, but we're constantly looking both inside the timeshare space and outside for new lines of business. And we're actively working on those business lines, and we're going to keep working until we can change or bend the curve to be additive to our story, not basically absorb it as part of our mid-single digits growth. What I would add on top of that is if there is a strategic opportunity, we'll evaluate it. And if it makes sense, we would not hesitate to make that type of move. But at this point, we're super focused on trying to bend the curve from the current decline trajectory because we know with the strength of our VO business that provides an additive nature to our EBITDA growth.

The next questions are from the line of Ian Zaffino with Oppenheimer.

As far as VPGs, how do we think about that? And I know you gave guidance for the full year, but how do we think about that throughout the year? I'm just thinking about -- you were talking about mix earlier. Does that kind of impact how you're thinking about VPGs because I guess we were under the belief that VPGs would be coming down just given more new owner mix and now it seems like the mix is changing a little bit. So any kind of color you could give us on where you think VPGs are going? And why?

Well, you're thinking about it the right way, Ian. VPG will take natural pressure on an enterprise basis when you get a higher new owner mix. We're heading into Q2 and Q3, which naturally has a new -- a higher new owner mix, which we expect to happen definitely in Q2 and again in Q3. So you would expect some natural pressure on VPG, but that's a mix issue, not a performance or an execution issue. So as you look at the cadence, you would expect those higher VPGs in Q1 with a higher owner mix, which is what we got. But Erik's laid out our range for the year, and I think that's accurately reflecting both the cadence and how we think we'll ultimately perform on VPG.

Okay. And then I guess as a follow-up, I know the question of Iran kind of came up, any kind of potential softness you might see. Like how do you think that's actually going to play out? Is it a matter of fuel prices are high and that's what might soften demand? Is it just kind of like a sentiment thing where consumers don't want to either travel or spend money on a DO? How does it actually manifest itself, you think or kind of what's baked into what you're expecting?

We'll give you our best thinking about how we think it would show early signs of showing up in our individual performance. And it's why we highlighted some of the travel trends we're watching. We would expect a little bit of conservatism in the consumer travel behavior. First and foremost, your booking windows would shrink. They have not so far this year. I would expect people to transition away from air travel to drive-to destinations. That has not transpired so far this year. I would also look at VPGs to modify. They haven't. They've continued to perform extremely well. We said we're monitoring early-stage delinquencies. There's nothing in the travel trends that's noticeably moved. In fact, it feels like it's actually moved the positive direction that would cause us to say there's an early radar sign or signal that says the consumer is weakening. I say all that knowing that every week, we look at these because we're looking for early signs. They just -- all we can report is what we know on April 22 and what we would know on April 22 is early warning signs have not shown up in our travel trends, but we'll continue to monitor them.

Our next questions are from the line of Lizzie Dove with Goldman Sachs.

I guess on a similar theme, just thinking about that new owner mix that you mentioned and being a key focus for this year. I guess, like I think typically, in precedent times where there's a macro slowdown, like getting that new owner to make that big purchase has typically been tougher. Can you maybe walk through how you're thinking about like levers that you have to drive that new owner growth this year as you push that more for the remainder of the year?

Well, it all starts with what happened in Q1 is you have to see the guest. And then secondly, you have to look at your conversion rates. And the 7% growth in Q1, I can't emphasize it enough is a big one coming out of Q1. We have laid the groundwork with our partnerships. We've laid the groundwork with the execution to be able to grow top of funnel key metric. And now our focus will be, and our team is already very focused on it is the next stage down the funnel, which is conversion. Unquestionably, as consumers' confidence rises and falls, just like every single metric that's in every single business, it fluctuates. And we will have fluctuation in almost all of our metrics on the owner and the new owner side. I think what we rest on is that as we monitor and get ahead of any metric that starts to adjust, our team is quick to react, whether it's in cost management, whether it's changing our strategies either on the marketing side or the sales side that we feel, as we mentioned in our prepared remarks, we think we can outperform across all cycles because there's a ton of value in the business. We've got the key metrics in place being top of funnel, both owner arrivals in the summer and new owner tours that we can execute further down the funnel and have a lot of levers to make sure that we ultimately deliver the results we've put out to the Street.

Got it. That's super clear. And then going back to the strategic review that you're undergoing. I think last quarter, you mentioned the swing factor was somewhere in between $15 million and $25 million in terms of EBITDA benefit. I know we'll get the Q later, but just any sense of like how we're tracking and kind of range of outcomes in terms of like coming in at the low end versus the higher end of that as we get through the year?

Yes. So just to clarify, when you say strategic initiative, you're referring to the resort optimization initiative, correct?

Yes, yes.

Yes. So as Erik mentioned, when you see the Q, you'll see great proof points is that we're realizing full, if not slightly above the cost savings. So we're super encouraged, first and foremost, that the cost savings are being fully realized. Our team is doing a great job combining very process-oriented of extracting those. Again, as a reminder, the resorts we're taking out have an average tenure of, I believe, about 40 years. So we're looking at more aged resorts with lower demand. And our focus really now is around the consumer and helping them determine having all the facts of their options, whether they want to stay in their ownership or exit and working through on a one-on-one basis, the population of owners who ultimately need to make a decision. But when it comes back to the economic side of the equation, we're realizing the savings we expected, if not slightly ahead. But it's sort of like our full year guidance. It's early in the process. We have 3 quarters to go, but super encouraged around the execution being at or slightly above plan through the first 90 days.

The next questions come from the line of Trey Bowers with Wells Fargo.

Just a couple of modeling questions on the free cash flow side of things. As we think about inventory for the year, is there a chance that as we look to EBITDA to free cash flow conversion, if another city where you wanted to add inventory popped up, could that shift things or if just kind of the pace and timing of VOI sales caused what would be some of this conversion to kind of get pushed into '27? And then second, just around nonrecourse debt. Is that expected to be kind of neutral this year or a bit of a draw or a bit of a positive?

Yes. So free cash flow, the pace of free cash flow in 2026 is going to be back-end loaded. With the Chicago and Nashville spent the inventory investments that we made in the first quarter, we've got additional investment that we're making in the second quarter. So we've got some conviction around converting roughly half of EBITDA into free cash flow on the full year, but you're going to see it really manifest in the back half of the year. From a portfolio perspective, I would say it's generally neutral.

Okay. And then just from the brand perspective, are there other Sports Illustrators or Eddie Bauers out there that you guys are talking to? Both of those brands are not brands that I think a lot of people are super resonate with consumers, but obviously, it's doing something really positive for you guys. Could you just maybe walk through why Eddie Bauer and SI are kind of brands that are bringing in new owners? Is it the brand itself? Or is it kind of just what you've done with the brand that is causing it to resonate?

Well, I would say that I believe the Sports Illustrated brand highly resonates and is an iconic brand that almost everyone associates with a sports experience. I like to equate it to Margaritaville, which is not your typical hospitality brand and yet everyone associates it with a lifestyle. So I think those retail brands that express a lifestyle, both Sports Illustrated and Eddie Bauer are highly reflective of how we think hospitality is changing to be lifestyle-based. And we just simply have taken the opportunity to find new markets through those lifestyle brands. I would add to it is Accor is a traditional hospitality brand. And in the grand scheme of things, we're trying to combine lifestyle and our core hospitality brands of Wyndham and Accor and ultimately grow the top line. So yes, I think, first of all, they're great brands and that they strongly are identifiable with the lifestyle, and that is resonating with the consumers as they make decisions.

And one more, if I could sneak it in with Accor. Will the license fees around that be similar to what you guys have with the guys at Wyndham? Or is that a different structure to that deal?

It's roughly the same.

Our final question is from the line of Brandt Montour with Barclays.

So I'm having a little bit of trouble wrapping my head around the delinquency stuff. I wanted to go back to that quickly because it's not really super clear to us what's driving it if there's no obvious characteristic you'd call out or nor really, it seems like that you want to blame the macro for this. So you've seen a lot of many delinquency cycles. You called it a wobble. How would you say it feels -- this one feels in terms of how it would play out? Like is it worse than -- is it -- I'm assuming it's better than the one you saw at this time last year? And then what are you kind of assuming when you say that the provision should still get better and you called out a bunch of good guys. On the bad guy side, what are you kind of assuming in terms of like where it stabilizes, when it stabilizes or anything you can kind of give us there?

Brandt, the first thing I'd say is that it's early-stage delinquencies. It's early in the cycle. We've seen it, wanted to communicate it. And the reason I wanted to bring up some of the good guys that are also running against the loan loss provision is just that, that as we sit here in the middle of April, we've still got conviction that the loan loss provision will be down year-over-year based on just the confluence of things that make up that calculation. So the delinquencies that we've seen, the early-stage delinquencies that we've seen, I would say just that. They are more recent vintages. But beyond the more recent vintages, there isn't a characteristic that I would specifically call out, and we're monitoring it and we're working it, and we've got aspirations to bring it down.

Okay. And the second question is actually on AI. You guys have showcased some great progress in terms of your guest experience and the technology stuff that you've done. But I wanted to more ask about how you're using or planning to use new AI tools on the distribution side, i.e., enhancing the top of funnel and sort of working with the bigger models out there that are disrupting some of the ways in which consumers find their travel options. And so is that something you're doing directly or planning to do directly with tech companies? Are you working through the brand companies that you partner with to speak to them and work with them? Or what can you tell us about progress on that initiative?

Let me start with AI, and then I'll just move to some technology updates as well to show some -- as you said, showcase some positive things we're doing. On the AI front, we view sort of 2 opportunities there is -- first is on the customer experiences to start in the search and book window and then expand outward from there. So we really want to get our owner-based engaged when they're looking at resorts, planning their resorts, creating as little friction as possible and getting their destination confirmed and in their inbox as a confirmed reservation. That's the starting point. Secondly is as we look at AI in the distribution side of the equation, I think the bigger opportunity for us on the Stage 1, Stage 2 basis is going to be on sort of non-full product type of vacations, whether it's rental, short-term product, low transaction prices, that's where you're best to start as opposed to trying to transact on an average transaction price of $25,000-ish through AI. I think we want to start with lower transaction prices and move up the chain from there, and that's work going forward. On the digital side, a lot of exciting things happened. We talked about Club Wyndham app that we launched and was received very well. We spoke recently about the WorldMark app that we launched last year. We already have 20% of our bookings which is pretty amazing how recent that app was launched and how quickly that was adopted by our WorldMark owners. Already 20% of our bookings are happening through the WorldMark app. And we launched the Margaritaville app in Q1. So when you think about the cadence of reducing our friction, some of it's AI, but a lot of it's just the quality of our IT team and the speed at which they've worked with the business to get usable, tangible customer experience technology out into the market that we're getting affirmation that it's working through the actual level of bookings we're seeing from our owners.

This now concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Michael Brown for closing comments.

Thanks, Rob. Thanks for joining us today, everyone. To wrap up, we've had a great start to 2026, and our strategic priorities are clear. We remain focused on disciplined execution to deliver strong results in 2026 while continuing to scale our multi-brand strategy to drive long-term profitable growth. Erik and I look forward to continuing the conversation with many of you at upcoming conferences and again on our second quarter call. Thank you for your time and continued interest in Travel + Leisure.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.