Kevin Mackay
Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead
Thank you, Scott. Hello, everyone and thank you very much for joining us today. With me here in Vancouver is Vince Lok, Teekay Tankers, Chief Financial Officer and Brian Fortier, Group Controller of Teekay Corporation. During today's call, I will be taking you through Teekay Tankers fourth quarter and FY '14 earnings results presentation, which can be found on our website. Beginning with our recent highlights on slide 3 of the presentation, Teekay Tankers reported adjusted net income of $0.21 per share in the fourth quarter, a significant increase from the third quarter adjusted net income of $0.03 per share. For FY '14, Teekay Tankers earned adjusted net income of $0.39 per share, compared to an adjusted net loss of $0.29 per share in FY '13. The improved results were primarily related due to stronger Suezmax, Aframax and LR2 spot tanker rates earned in 2014, combined with our strategic initiatives to increase spot market exposure. For the fourth quarter of 2014, the Company declared and paid a quarterly dividend of $0.03 per share. Since inception, Teekay Tankers has declared dividend in 29 consecutive quarters, with dividends paid to date now totaling $7.425 per share. Teekay Tankers dividend is currently fixed at an annual level of $0.12 per share payable quarterly. In December as part of our strategy of increasing of our exposure to strengthening spot tanker market, Teekay Tankers agreed to acquire four LR2 product carriers and one Aframax tanker from third-parties. Two of these vessels were delivered into our fleet in mid-February, one delivered this morning and two remaining vessels are expected to deliver by the end of the first quarter. Based on this delivery schedule and current spot rates, this transaction will be immediately accretive to net income. Since our last earnings call in November, Teekay Tankers has continue to build out its in-charter fleet, securing new in-charter contracts for two Aframax tankers and one LR2 product tanker at an average rate of $19,200 per day for periods ranging from 12 to 24 months, with options to extend beyond that. These three vessels add approximately 900 days to our overall spot tanker exposure in 2015 and increase our in-charter fleet to 11 ships. In the first quarter of 2015 to date, spot tanker rates have continued to strengthen, with rates booked to date significantly higher than rates realized in the fourth quarter of 2014. Turning to slide 4, I will provide further details of our recent vessel acquisitions. The five modern second-hand mid-sized tankers that Teekay Tankers agreed to acquire in December will have a total aggregate purchase price of approximately $230 million. These acquisitions will be funded with a combination of debt and equity, with the equity component funded with a portion of the proceeds from the $125 million equity offering completed by Teekay Tankers in December, which includes a $20 million investment by our sponsor, Teekay Corporation. In addition, we also completed a new $127 million debt facility in January of this year. These strategic acquisitions benefit Teekay Tankers in several ways. First, the low cash breakeven enables us to maximize earnings from the current robust spot tanker market. Secondly, the longer-term the four LR2's provide us with flexibility and optionality to trade the vessels in either the crude or refined product segments, depending on market conditions. And finally, the young age of the acquired vessels, which increases our directly-owned fleet to 33 ships, reduces the average fleet age by one year. In summary, this transaction is consistent with our stated strategy to grow and renew our fleet, while increasing our exposure to an improved spot tanker market. Turning to slide 5, I will provide an update on Teekay Tanker's fleet employment mix and the very deliberate actions we have taken to actively increase the Company's spot market exposure which we believe is benefiting and will continue to benefit shareholders. Based on our view, the spot tanker rates would on average exceed tank charter out rates. We continue to increase the Company's spot market exposure through a combination of the recent fleet acquisitions, securing additional in-charter vessels and transitioning some of our owned vessels from fixed rate employment to spot rate employment as their existing change out contracts expire. With the 11 in-charter vessels currently in our fleet, we have increased Teekay Tankers spot exposure by approximately 3,900 revenue days for FY '15. On a fleet basis, our spot market exposure for the next 12 months now totals 37 vessels or 85% of revenue days. Based on our expectations, the spot tanker market will remain firm. The increase in our spot exposure should translate into increased earnings and free cash flow. The blue line in the chart on the right, shows that for every $5,000 increase in average spot tanker rates for the 12-month period ending December 31, 2015, free cash flow per share is expected to increase by $0.51 per share, compared to $0.35 per share for the 12-month period ended December 31, 2014. This increase in earnings are, highlights Teekay Tankers strong operating leverage to the firming spot tanker market. At current spot Aframax rates of approximately $30,000 per day, our free cash flow yield is over 30% based our current share price. Turning to slide 6, we take a look at recent developments in the crude tanker spot market. As indicated by the chart on the left, Teekay Tankers fourth quarter earnings outperformed earnings for fourth quarter of 2013 by approximately $10,500 per day for Aframaxes and $11,200 for Suezmaxes and we're our highest fourth quarter earnings since 2008. The strong rates were primarily driven by combination of winter weather delays, low oil prices prompting stockpiling for both strategic and commercial reserves and high refinery throughput which drove increased demand. The chart on the right shows that globally mid-sized tanker rates have averaged close to $9,000 per day higher over the last 12 months, compared to the 12 months prior. While rates at the start of 2014 dropped off with the dramatic winter spike, rates in the first weeks of 2015 have only marginally softened as we enter a period of seasonal refinery maintenance. In addition to lower oil prices, encouraging the filling of both strategic and commercial reserves, particularly in China, where the government continues to fill the second tranche of its strategic petroleum reserve, positive fleet fundamentals and changing trading patterns are providing the foundation for a sustained positive rate environment. We expect the ongoing positive demand resulting from lower global oil prices will continue to support mid-sized tanker rates in the near-term. Turning to slide 7, I will provide further commentary on the positive roles that lower oil prices are having on tanker demand in the near-term. Lower oil prices are having a positive impact on the tanker market in a number of ways. Firstly, owners trading their vessel spot are enjoying increased earnings as a result of lower operating costs. For every $10 per barrel drop in the price of oil, we enjoy the equivalent of around $2,400 per day in bunker fuel savings. Secondly, low oil prices are positively boosting refinery margins, which leads to greater crude throughput and therefore stronger tanker demand. And lastly, we see there is potential for significant levels of floating storage to emerge during 2015, should the contango price structure steepen. As the chart on the bottom of the slide indicates, the price of oil is currently in contango. Although the current structure first developed in August of 2014, the economics that encourage the use of floating storage did not develop until January of this year, at which point more than 30 VLCCs were contracted on period charter with storage options. While these vessels currently continue to trade in the spot market and have not yet been idled for actual storage, we believe as shore inventories continue to decline through 2015, the storage options on these vessels will ultimately be exercised, effectively removing around 5% of the VLCC fleet from the market. Floating storage on this scale will have a positive knock-on impact from the Suezmax sector as the removal of the larger tankers in the spot trading fleet reduces competition for Suezmaxes on certain main trade routes. At a more macro level, changing trade patterns are stretching out the global tanker fleet as shown on slide 8. As surplus Atlantic Basin crudes have found new and growing markets in Asia, there has been a sustained annual increase in long-haul movements from West to East. Specifically cargoes from West Africa to the U.S. Gulf, traditionally a staple Suexmax trade route, have declined by close to 70% due to the surge in U.S. shale production, displacing demand for Nigerian light sweet crude. In contrast, trade on Suezmaxes between West Africa and Asia have increased by close to 75% and trade from West Africa to Europe have also increased 70% over the last four years. In addition, the lack of a natural backhaul cargo from West Africa to the Asia trade, have led to growing inefficiency in the fleet as ships discharging in the East face longer ballast voyages back to the Atlantic load ports. As a result, many owners are choosing instead to load in the Middle East, rather than ballast back to the Atlantic, which leads to further displacement of the vessels in the Atlantic Basin as tonnage supply remains east of Suez. Such changes to traditional trade patterns have stretched the mid-sized tanker fleet, reducing supply of available tonnage and increasing both the occurrence and periods of volatility in spot rates. Turning to slide 9, I will provide an update on spot earnings in the first quarter of 2015 to date. First quarter Suexmax, Aframax and LR2 rates so far have been significantly higher than average realized rates for the third and fourth quarters of 2014. Based on approximately 60% spot revenue days booked, Teekay Tankers first quarter to date Suezmax bookings have averaged approximately $39,000 per day, up significantly from $26,600 per day in the fourth quarter of 2014 and our first quarter to date Aframax bookings have averaged approximately $30,000 per day, up from $25,700 per day in the fourth quarter of last year. For the LR2 segment, with 80% of our spot revenue days booked, our first quarter to date LR2 bookings have also trended higher, with returns on average increasing approximately $26,000 per day, compared to $21,900 per day in the fourth quarter of 2014. As we approach mid quarter, the fundamental tightness in vessel supply as well as the ongoing impact of low oil prices continues to support firm crude tanker rates, with high levels of naphtha moving into Asia, providing ongoing support for robust LR2 product tanker rates. With the current high rate environment anticipated to continue in the near-term, we believe that Teekay Tankers strong operating leverage and increased spot exposure positions us very well to benefit from the expected fundamental strength in the global tanker market. With that operator, we now are available to take some questions.