Bruce Chan
Analyst · Evercore Partners
Thanks, Kent. Hello, everyone, and thank you very much for joining us. With me here in Vancouver is Vince Lok, Teekay Tankers' Chief Financial Officer; Brian Fortier, Corporate Controller of Teekay Corporation; and Peter Evensen, Teekay Corporation's Chief Executive Officer. During today's call, I will be taking you through Teekay Tankers' fourth quarter earnings results presentation, which can be found on our website. Beginning with our recent highlights on Slide 3 of the presentation. Teekay Tankers generated cash available for distribution before reserves of $0.13 per share in the fourth quarter. This is up slightly from the $0.12 per share generated in the third quarter, mainly due to stronger spot rates earned by our LR2 product tankers that provided a lift to overall earnings. We reported an adjusted net loss of $0.09 per share, in line with our adjusted net loss reported in the third quarter of 2012. The company declared a dividend of $0.03 per share for the fourth quarter, which is Teekay Tankers' 21st consecutive quarterly dividend and will be paid out on March 11 to all shareholders of record on March 4. Our dividend remains liquidity neutral, and in the fourth quarter, all cash available for distribution after reserving for debt principal repayments and estimated drydock expenses will be distributed to shareholders. We continue to focus on managing our fleet to ensure we maintain strong fixed cover during this period of cyclical weakness in the tanker markets. During the fourth quarter, we concluded a number of in and out-charter transactions, which when taken together, maintain our fixed rate coverage for fiscal 2013 at 42%, while providing Teekay Tankers the extension options to increase its tanker market exposure should spot rates exceed the option rate levels. In line with managing our fleet exposure to the spot market, we completed the sale of a 1998 built Aframax tanker that had been trading on the spot market for net proceeds of $9.1 million. Teekay Tankers remain financially well-positioned with total liquidity of $327 million as of December 31, with no significant debt maturities until 2017, allowing us to evaluate future growth opportunities without the need to raise additional equity at TNK. Lastly, reflecting a change in our previous approach of funding fleet growth through follow-on equity offerings, the Teekay Tankers' Board of Directors has amended its dividend policy from a variable dividend to a fixed dividend, commencing with the first quarter of 2013 dividend, payable in June 2013. The dividend will be fixed at an annual level of $0.12 per share payable quarterly, which allows the company to retain a portion of our operating cash flow to fund future growth rather than require an equity offering, which would be dilutive to our shareholders at today's low share price. Turning to Slide 4. We have provided a review of our fourth quarter financial results. As I mentioned, our fourth quarter cash available for distribution of $0.13 per share was up slightly from the third quarter, as seasonally stronger spot tanker rates were delayed into the latter part of the quarter and lower OPEC oil production offset any substantial firming in tanker rates. On a positive note, our long range product tankers benefited from increased demand for product shipments, a trend we believe will continue in the medium-term due to increased refinery capacity east of the Suez Canal. Turning to Slide 5. We have provided the details of our recent time-charter transactions and vessel sale. We continue to actively manage our operational leverage appearing time-charter-out contract, in the money time-charter-in contracts to maintain our current 2013 fixed coverage of 42%, while locking in additional cash flows. On a combined basis, the recent time-charter transactions on the Aframax tankers, Esther Spirit and BM Breeze, will generate a fixed profit of over $3,000 per day for the next year. Moreover, the optional charter periods on these contracts provide Teekay Tankers with additional upside to extend our spot market exposure should the tanker market improve. In addition to our recent chartering activity, we also proactively sold our oldest ship, a 15-year-old tanker trading spot, avoiding expensive drydocking costs while reducing the company's exposure to older vessels that face increasing discrimination from charterers in the current weak tanker market. Turning to Slide 6. During the fourth quarter, we recognized a noncash vessel impairment charge of $353 million, primarily related to our Suezmax fleet acquired from Teekay Corporation, but initially acquired by Teekay Corporation as part of the OMI Corporation acquisition in mid-2007 at a high point in the cycle for vessel values. Due to drop down accounting rules, vessels acquired from Teekay Corporation are recorded on Teekay Tankers' balance sheet at Teekay Corporation's original purchase price as opposed to the actual purchase price paid by Teekay Tankers. As you can see, from the asset value graph on the right of the slide, vessel values over the past 5 years have fallen significantly, and ships recorded on the books of these historically higher values have become impaired. As a reminder, vessel impairment analysis under U.S. GAAP is a 2-step task. The first step, comparing estimated undiscounted future cash flows to the current vessel book values on an individual ship basis. If the estimated future cash flows on an undiscounted basis are less than the current book value, even if by a relatively small amount, the vessel would fail step 1 and, therefore, would require a write-down to fair value under step 2. Earlier in 2012, we estimated that a recovery of the conventional tanker market could begin in the latter part of 2012 or early into 2013. Over the course of last year, the market sentiment and our views on this changed. And by the fourth quarter of 2012, it was apparent that such a recovery would likely not occur in this timeframe. As such, the delayed market recovery has contributed to our reduction in our estimated future cash flows from our conventional tanker fleet. With lower estimated future cash flows and relatively high book values, these vessels failed the step 1 test in the fourth quarter. And given the large decline in vessel values as shown in the graphs, the resulting impairment charges required for these vessels under step 2 of the test were significant. It is important to note that for the 13 vessels TNK acquired in June of 2012, these ships had been recorded on our balance sheet at Teekay Tankers' actual purchase price at that time, which was lower than Teekay Corporation's book value, none of those vessels would have been written down. As a result of the vessel write down, our annual depreciation expense is expected to reduce by approximately $22 million or $0.26 per share, commencing in 2013. I would like to stress that this vessel impairment charge is noncash in nature, and does not impact the company's cash available for distribution or cash dividend, nor does it affect any covenants related to Teekay Tankers' debt facilities. Moving to the market slides on Slide 7. We summarized developments in the spot tanker market during 2012. Last year can be characterized as the year of 2 halves. In the crude tanker sector, strong demand in the first half of the year gave way to a weaker second half, particularly for the Suezmax sector, as shown by the bars on the top of the slide. Demand for crude tankers in the first half of the year was driven by crude oil stockpiling, ahead of the EU sanctions on Iranian oil, which took effect from July 1, coupled with high levels of global oil production, particularly from OPEC. The combined effect of crude oil demand for stock piling purposes and an increase in long haul OPEC barrels led to a significant increase in crude tanker ton-mile demand throughout the first half of 2012. Looking at the second half of 2012, the picture was very different, with rates in the large crude tanker segments falling to historically low levels during the summer months. This collapse in rates was due to much lower levels of tanker demand once oil inventories had been replenished, coupled with reduced OPEC oil production. Rates did exhibit a modest rebound to 6-month highs in the fourth quarter on the back of regular seasonal factors. However, tanker rates have since weakened in the early part of 2013. In the product tanker market, the pattern of earnings was opposite from the crude sector, with a very weak first half of the year, giving way to a much stronger second half. LR2 spot rates reached a 3-year high of approximately $20,000 per day during the fourth quarter of 2012, driven by a combination of increased long haul naphtha movements into Asia and reduced competition from crude tanker new buildings on the East-West gas oil trade. Rates have since moderated slightly, though earnings in the LR2 sector continue to outperform the Aframax and Suezmax crude sectors. Turning to Slide 8. We take a look at developments in tanker asset prices. Second-hand tanker prices, as shown by the green line on both charts, held relatively steady through the first half of 2012, reported by a relatively strong freight market environment as outlined in the previous slide. However, asset values declined in the second half of the year in tandem with the weakening freight market. And by the end of the year, stood approximately 15% lower than they did at the start of 2012. In total, tanker asset prices have declined by approximately 60% since the peak of the market in mid-2008. Though prices declined in 2012, we believe we are at or near the bottom of the ship price market. This is borne out by some of the sales that we saw during the latter part of the fourth quarter, which were concluded at price levels similar to, or in some cases, above last done. In the Newbuilding market, illustrated by the blue lines on both charts, we also believe that prices are at or near the bottom. In recent weeks, we have seen a strengthening in the Korean won versus the U.S. dollar, as well as higher steel prices, both of which add support to Newbuilding prices. In addition, the last 3 months have seen an uptick in vessel ordering activity at the top tier shipyards, not just for tankers, but also for container ships, LNG carriers and offshore units. Together, these factors should put a floor under Newbuilding prices in the coming months, and we believe that any reduction in prices from hereon will be minimal. Slide 9 illustrates our outlook for tanker fleet utilization as shown by the green area on the chart, which we believe will reach a bottom during 2013 before undergoing a modest recovery next year. For the year ahead, we forecast tanker demand growth of approximately 3.5%, a reduction from 2012 levels due primarily to expected lower OPEC oil production, leading to a reduction in average voyage distances. However, with the fleet growth forecasted to be around 3.5%, the net result is no change in tanker fleet utilization. The spot rate is expected to be broadly similar to those experienced in 2012. For 2014, we believe that tanker fleet utilization will begin to improve, deferred by lower tanker fleet growth and higher tanker demand growth on the back of a recovering global economy. Should the level of new tanker ordering remain low through 2013, which we believe it will, partially due to a lack of available financing for most owners, and this recovery should extend beyond 2014 and lead to a period of improved tanker rates. Looking at the supply demand balance by segment, we believe that the Aframax and LR2 sectors offer the best fundamentals due to their small order books and favorable demand outlook, particularly for LR2s, as I will outline on the next slide. Slide 10 looks at the changing landscape of the product tanker market. In particular, the growth in long haul product tanker movements, which we expect will emerge over the next few years. On the map, regions colored in blue are those which are expected to see growth in refining capacity over the next 5 years, while those in red are expected to see a decline in refining capacity. Refining capacity in the U.S. is expected to remain unchanged during this time, although this masks some regional disparities with refineries on the east coast and in the Caribbean at risk of closure, while refining capacity in the Midwest, U.S. Gulf and West Coast regions could expand due to the benefit of access to cheap shale oil. The arrows on the chart shows some of the long haul product trade routes, which we expect to grow as a result of these refinery changes. Middle East and India are expected to become increasingly pivotal as suppliers of refined products, particularly to Europe, but also to Asia, Australia and Latin America, naphtha movements from both Europe and the Middle East to Asia are also expected to increase due to growing demand from Asian petrochemical plants. Finally, the expansion of the Panama canal from 2015, coupled with the rapid growth in product exports from the U.S. Gulf, will lead to an increase in product movements from the U.S. to Latin America and even to Asia. In sum, changes to global refining patterns are expected to be very positive for the global products trade in the coming years, and an increase in long haul movements is expected to be particularly beneficial for LR2 demand. Turning to Slide 11, Teekay Tankers remains financially strong and well-positioned for growth. Our total current liquidity of $327 million places us in a unique position among conventional tanker companies to pursue accretive growth opportunities without the need to issue new equity in Teekay Tankers. As discussed on Slide #6, the vessel impairment charge in our fourth quarter results was noncash, in nature, and had no effect on any of the covenants related to our debt facilities. This lack of covenant concerns provides us with considerable financial flexibility. Teekay Tankers' favorable debt profile continues to have low principal repayments through to 2016, as well as low levels of debt amortization, enabling us to retain our available liquidity for future investment opportunities. In addition to Teekay Tankers' strong balance sheet, we believe moving to a fixed dividend policy provides a sustainable dividend level based on our existing fleet size and employment mix. This prudent policy will enable us to retain an increasing amount of operating cash flow as the tanker market recovers to invest at an opportune time in the tanker cycle, and therefore, increasing the total value created for Teekay Tankers' shareholders over the long term. Wrapping up on Slide 12, we provide a cash available for distribution outlook matrix for the first quarter of 2013 based on our expected fleet employment profile, as well as guidance on our off-hire days recorded in the quarter thus far. Based on a weighted average of approximately 2/3 of days booked for the first quarter, for Aframaxes, LR2 and Suezmaxes, spot rates have averaged approximately $10,800 per day, $15,400 per day and $13,400 per day, respectively. We have continued to include our cash available for distribution matrix in this quarter's earnings presentation as we believe this measure continues to reflect Teekay Tankers' cash equity return, even though the company has moved to a fixed dividend policy. Even in a low spot rate environment, Teekay Tankers generates positive cash available for distribution, allowing us to pay a fixed quarterly dividend from vessel earnings, while retaining operating cash flow for future growth opportunities. With that, Michelle, we are now available to take questions.