Bruce Chan
Analyst · Wells Fargo
Thanks, Kent. Hello, everyone, and thank you very much for joining us. With me here in Vancouver is Vince Lok, Teekay Tankers' Chief Financial Officer; and Peter Evensen, Teekay Corporation's CEO. During today's call, I'll be taking you through Teekay Tankers second quarter earnings results presentation which can be found on our website. Beginning with our recent highlights on Slide 3 of the presentation, we continue to pay out essentially all of our free cash flow in the form of dividends to shareholders after reserving for estimated dry dock expenses and principal repayments. In the second quarter of 2012, Teekay Tankers declared a dividend of $0.11 per share, down from $0.16 per share in the previous quarter mainly due to a weaker spot tanker market for Suezmaxes and Aframaxes, as well as a onetime transaction cost of $750,000 associated with the recent 13-vessel acquisition. Our second quarter dividend, which is our 19th consecutive quarterly dividend, will be paid out on August 27 to all shareholders of record on August 20. In June, we successfully completed the acquisition of 13 modern conventional tankers and related time-charters and debt facilities from our sponsor, Teekay Corporation, for a total purchase price of $454.2 million. The transaction has made Teekay Tankers one of the largest owners of midsized conventional tanker tonnage and has enhanced our modern fleet at a time of increasing discrimination by charterers against older tonnage. We continue to focus on tactically managing our fleet to enhance our fixed rate coverage during this period of weak tanker markets. During the second quarter, our fixed rate fleet earned an average of $20,400 per day, which is more than $3,000 per day higher than the average rate of $17,100 per day earned by our spot-traded vessels. Our ability to obtain new time-charter coverage to replace charters that have recently expired is a competitive advantage because it supports the stability of our dividend. In addition to the 9 vessels in the fleet acquired from Teekay Corporation with existing time-charter out contracts, we recently time-chartered out 2 additional Aframax tankers at above market rates, leveraging Teekay Corporation's extensive chartering relationships. In combination, the additional time-charter coverage provided by both the acquisition and recent time-charters has increased Teekay Tankers' fixed-rate coverage from 29% to 47% for the 12-month period commencing July 1, 2012. Lastly, Teekay Tankers remains financially well-positioned following the recent transactions with total liquidity of $386 million with no significant debt maturities until 2017. Our strong balance sheet and liquidity places us in a strong position to pursue future accretive growth opportunities. Turning to Slide 4. We have provided the details of our recent time-charter transactions. We continue to actively manage our fleet employment to ensure the right mix of downside protection through fixed coverage in the current weak tanker market and upside potential from spot exposure. Given the weakening tanker market outlook over the near term, we recently entered into 2 additional 1-year time-charter out contracts at rates above the current spot market. In addition, we have the opportunity to charter in an additional spot-traded Aframax tanker at a relatively low rate, which when combined with one of the recent out charters, locks in approximately $2,000 per day of cash flow for the initial 6-month firm period of the in-charter contract. In-charters are an ideal way to take on operating leverage without requiring a large capital commitment, preserving our balance sheet and liquidity for future acquisition opportunities. The options on the in-charter also provide us with flexibility to extend if the spot market turns out to be stronger than expected, or redeliver if it turns out to be weaker. On Slide #5, we have provided an updated summary of Teekay Tankers fleet employment profile with the 13 vessels recently acquired from Teekay Corporation highlighted using green bars with black labels and Teekay Tankers pre-transaction fleet shown as blue bars with the blue labels. As I noted a moment ago, many of the acquired time-charters provide coverage through 2012 and into 2013, locking in revenue at a time when we expect further spot market weakness and volatility. As a result of these additional fixed-rate charters and our recent chartering transactions, Teekay Tankers fixed cover for the 12 months commencing July 1, 2012, has increased from approximately 29% before the transaction, to approximately 47% post transaction. Currently, Teekay Tankers fleet consists of 28 owned vessels, one, time-chartered in Aframax and one, 50% owned VLCC Newbuilding scheduled to be delivered in the second quarter of 2013. Slide 6 provides our dividend outlook matrix for the third quarter based on our current fleet employment profile and various spot tanker rates. Based on approximately 40% of days booked for the quarter, spot rates are showing segment-specific volatility, averaging approximately $11,800 per day in the Aframax LR2 segments and $14,000 per day in the Suezmax segment. However, current Aframax and Suezmax spot tanker rates are currently lower than what we have earned so far this quarter, and we expect spot rates to stay at these lower levels for the remainder of Q3 for reasons I will go into on the following slides. It is also important to note we have heavy dry-docking commitments in the third quarter of 2012, with 3 ships scheduled for dry-dock during this period. While this reduces our revenue days for the quarter, taking the ships out of service during the traditionally weaker summer months helps prepare our fleet to maximize revenue days during the expected stronger winter market. It should also be mentioned that we have increased our debt principal reserved, post-acquisition, to $5 million. Consequently, the acquisition may not appear as accretive to the dividend, but is accretive to cash available for distribution. Turning to Slide 7. We take a look at recent developments in the spot tanker market. As shown by the chart on the slide, spot tanker rates are historically at their weakest during the second and third quarters of the year. This was particularly evident during 2011 when excess vessel supply and weak tanker demand ensured that rates remain very low through the spring and summer months before regaining some ground over the winter. The first half of 2012 has played out slightly differently in that tanker rate volatility continue to feature well into the second quarter, particularly in the Suezmax sector, which saw a brief spike to $35,000 per day during May. This increased volatility was a result of very high levels of global oil production through the first half of the year in order to satisfy demand for crude oil stockpiling due to fears surrounding the Iranian embargo, which, in turn, meant an increase in spot tanker movements compared to 2011 levels. However, demand for crude oil stockpiling has declined in recent weeks, compounded by a slowdown in global oil demand due to a weakening global economy. This has started to affect tanker rates with earnings in the Aframax and Suezmax sectors falling to approximately operating cost levels in the recent weeks. As a result, we expect that spot rates for the rest of the quarter will average below what has been booked for Q3 to date. The one brighter spot in recent weeks has been the LR2 market, which has strengthened primarily due to an increase in naphtha movements from the Middle East and Europe into Asia. As a result, earnings on the benchmark, Middle East to Japan route, recently reached their highest point since the third quarter of 2010 at approximately $16,000 per day. Turning to Slide #8. Our outlook for the second half of 2012 is for a weak summer market to gradually give way to stronger rates as winter market fundamentals kick in during the fourth quarter. Winter market rate catalysts include the onset of heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere, the return of refineries from autumn maintenance programs and transit delays due to adverse weather conditions. And we expect that these factors will lead to improved rates during Q4. The table on the bottom part of the slide lists some of the additional factors which could affect the tanker market during the second half of the year. On the upside, lower oil prices compared to the first half could lead to a recovery in oil consumption, particularly in the OECD where demand is more price-sensitive than in the non-OECD. The recent reopening of refineries, which have previously been idled in the U.S. and Europe, could also be positive for crude tanker demand, though some of the U.S. East Coast refineries are trying to access cheap domestic shale oil rather than more expensive seaborne imports. Finally, storm activity in the Gulf of Mexico could yet have an impact on tanker rates in the Atlantic despite a relatively quiet start to the hurricane season. On the downside, a weakening global economy due to ongoing economic headwinds in Europe and slower growth in the U.S. and China could drag on oil demand growth during the second half of the year. Slowing demand growth could, in turn, spur OPEC production cutbacks if oil prices start to decline, which would be negative for crude tanker demand. In addition, non-OPEC supply problems due, for example, to unplanned outages in the North Sea or geopolitical pressures in regional producers such as Syria and Sudan, could also have a negative impact on crude tanker demand during the second half. Slide 9 provides an update of our tanker supply and demand growth outlook for 2013. The most significant change is that we have downgraded our tanker demand growth estimate by around 1 percentage point based on a weakening global economy. This is in line with what major forecasting agencies are reporting as shown by the chart on the right-hand side of the slide, which shows the Energy Information Administration, or EIA, oil demand forecast for 2013 in each of their monthly reports this year. At the beginning of the year, the EIA was forecasting oil demand growth of 1.5 million barrels per day in 2013, with strong growth of 1.3 million barrels per day in the non-OECD and moderate growth of 0.2 million barrels per day in the OECD. However, the EIA has gradually downgraded its demand estimate over time, and in its August report was forecasting growth of just 0.9 million barrels per day in 2013, including a decline of 0.1 million barrels per day in the OECD and more modest growth of 1 million barrels per day in the non-OECD. As a result of these changes, we now estimate that tanker demand will grow by approximately 3% to 4% in 2013 rather than the 4% to 5% growth forecast, which we had used in prior earnings presentations. This tanker demand growth is expected to be offset by fleet supply growth of around the same magnitude, meaning that our base case view is for a relatively balanced tanker market in 2013, with overall fleet utilization remaining in the low 80% range. However, the demand side of the equation is a major source of uncertainty in our forecast, and is likely to be the main wildcard factor for the tanker market during 2013. Despite a weaker demand outlook for 2013, certain sectors of the tanker market look set to benefit from much lower supply growth over the next 12 to 24 months. This is particularly true in the Aframax and LR2 sectors as highlighted in the charts on Slide 10. The Aframax LR2 fleet underwent a period of high fleet growth in the years 2006 to 2011, but this fleet growth has slowed considerably during 2012 due to a decline in vessel deliveries and an increase in scrapping. Going forward, the Aframax LR2 fleet is set to benefit from a favorable fleet and order book profile with just 52 vessels currently on order versus a fleet of 890 vessels. This fleet count includes 135 vessels aged 15 years or older that are increasingly being discriminated against by charterers and which face potential scrapping decisions in the near term. According to our estimates, the Aframax LR2 fleet could shrink during 2013 and 2014 as scrapping of old, commercially-obsolete vessels outweighs the delivery of new vessels into the fleet. The Suezmax sector, as shown by the charts on the right-hand side of the slide, does not have quite so favorable supply fundamentals with an order book of 69 vessels against a fleet of 423 vessels, of which, just 49 are aged 15 years or older. This means that the Suezmax fleet growth is likely to remain high in 2013 at around 7%, though the order book drops off considerably after 2013, which should lead to significantly lower, or even flat, Suezmax fleet growth from 2014 onwards. Turning to Slide 11. Teekay Tankers remains financially strong and well-positioned for future growth. Including the $40 million of incremental undrawn credit lines that we assumed as part of the 13-vessel transaction, Teekay Tankers' total liquidity is currently $386 million, placing us in a strong position to pursue further accretive growth opportunities. Post transaction, Teekay Tankers has maintained its low principal repayment schedule through to 2016, allowing us to continue to pay healthy dividends to shareholders throughout the current market trough. Additionally, unlike many of our peers in the spot tanker space, we will continue to have no financial covenant concerns, and as a result, we'll retain considerable financial flexibility. This places us in a strong position to pursue future growth opportunities without requiring further equity raises. Turning to Slide 12. We have provided Teekay Tankers' second quarter adjusted income statement which highlights the accounting impact of our recent 13-vessel acquisition. Due to drop-down accounting requirements in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, we are required to present the financial impact of assets acquired from Teekay Corporation during the quarter as if they were owned by Teekay Tankers for the entire time they were owned and operated by Teekay Corporation. To provide you with a better reflection of the actual contribution from the 13 acquired vessels during the second quarter, we have prepared an adjusted income statement which reconciles to the reported GAAP income statement and breaks out the financials for the 13 vessels for the period when they were owned by Teekay Corporation and also highlights the adjustments that we customarily include in Appendix A. For comparative purposes, we have also prepared a similar adjusted income statement reconciliation for the first quarter of 2012. I won't walk through the Q2 adjusted income statement on Slide 12 in detail on today's call, but as you can see, because Teekay Tankers acquired the 13 vessels late in the quarter, it had minimal impact to our Q2 adjusted results, but had a significant impact on the pre-acquisition GAAP results. Looking back on our highlights for the second quarter, Teekay Tankers acquisition of 13 conventional tankers in the second quarter of 2012 was a uniquely structured transaction, which provided several benefits for the company. Number one, Teekay Tankers emerged with a younger fleet on average at a time when the weak tanker markets are leading to increased charterer discrimination against older tankers. Secondly, the acquisition enhanced our fixed rate time-charter coverage at a time when the oil demand outlook for 2013 appears to be weakening. And finally, it actually enhanced Teekay Tankers' available liquidity, providing the company with a strong financial position from which to pursue future growth opportunities. With that, operator, we are now available to take questions.