TriNet Group, Inc. (TNET) Q2 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Good day, and welcome to the TriNet's Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Alex Bauer, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you, operator. Good morning. My name is Alex Bauer, TriNet's Head of Investor Relations. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to TriNet's Second Quarter Conference Call and Webcast. I'm joined today by our President and CEO, Mike Simonds; and our CFO, Mala Murthy. Before we begin, I would like to preview this morning's call. First, I will pass the call to Mike for his comments regarding our second quarter performance. Mala will then review our Q2 financial performance in greater detail and comment on our 2026 financial guidance and outlook. Please note that today's discussion will include our 2026 full year financial outlook and other statements that are not historical in nature or predictive in nature or depend upon or refer to future events or conditions such as our expectations, estimates, predictions, strategies, beliefs or other statements that might be considered forward-looking. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and assumptions and are inherently subject to risks, uncertainties and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict and that may cause actual results to differ materially from statements being made today or in the future. Except as may be required by law, we do not undertake to update any of these statements in light of new information, future events or otherwise. We encourage you to review our most recent public filings with the SEC, including our 10-K and 10-Q filings for a more detailed discussion of the risks, uncertainties and changes in circumstances that may affect our future results or the market price for our stock. In addition, our discussion today will include non-GAAP financial measures, including our forward-looking guidance for adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income per diluted share. For reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures to our GAAP financial results, please see our earnings release, 10-Q filings or our 10-K filing, which are available on our website or through the SEC website. With that, I will turn the call over to Mike. Mike?

Thank you, Alex, and thank you all for joining us. At the midpoint of 2026, I'm pleased with the progress we've made on our priorities. We kept our focus on our customers and executing our strategy, resulting in higher retention, increasing sales momentum, prudent expense management and improved earnings performance positioning us to raise our full year earnings outlook. While the operating environment remains challenging, the team is striking the right balance on two important fronts. First, as we previewed last quarter, our health fee pricing work over the previous 18 months positioned us to renew customers at rates more closely aligned with market trends going forward. We saw the benefit in Q2 with a balanced combination of insurance performance and significantly improved customer retention. Second, I'm encouraged by the balance we are achieving in continuing to invest meaningfully in growth and client service initiatives while also managing expenses prudently. Looking forward to the second half, we believe TriNet is well positioned for continued improvement in operating and financial performance. We've made good progress on our margins and operating fundamentals. We're now increasingly focused on realizing value from our growth-oriented investments. TriNet's path to sustainable growth will start with revenue growth as pricing outpaces a slowing rate of WSE volume decline. Then WSE volumes will stabilize and begin to grow driven by further improvements in retention paired with new sales increases. Starting with pricing. We now have our insurance cost ratio back in our targeted range and we'll continue to renew business, assuming the elevated high single-digit trend being felt across the market persistent. With our pricing more in line with market trends, our service proposition is becoming the biggest determinant as to whether our SMB clients stay with TriNet and continuing to improve our retention rates is our second key to reestablishing growth. Our primary KPI for customer service is the Net Promoter Score, and I'm pleased to report that in Q2, we remained at much improved levels continuing to trend from last quarter. Overall, attrition in the quarter improved by 36% year-over-year. Importantly, when we break this down to look at the drivers, we saw a 58% year-over-year decrease in attrition related to health fee pricing and a 47% year-over-year decrease in attrition related to service. We are encouraged by these improvements as our goal is to achieve and sustain long-term retention at rates several points higher than our historical experience of about 80%. Success in our view, requires pairing our people with industry-leading technology. AI and HR is most valuable when combined with judgment rooted in deep domain expertise and a strong service orientation, long-standing TriNet strength. On this score, we're pleased with the performance of TriNet Assistant since its launch this spring. This AI capability is both delivering a strong improvement in our customer experience and freeing up capacity for our teams to focus on higher-value work. Thus far, 50% of customer-initiated chat sessions have been addressed through TriNet Assistant, resulting in lower service case volumes for our colleagues. These chat sessions include benefits, payroll and other workforce management-related inquiries. Moreover, customer satisfaction with TriNet Assistant is strong and highlights growing trust with the experience. TriNet Assistant is just one of several exciting AI projects designed to improve our customer experience, manage costs and fuel our growth. We'll share more as these initiatives move into production. A second important investment in our client experience is our acquisition of Cocoon. Leave of absence has been a significant compliance and employee experience pain point for our customers and the broader SMB market. And with Cocoon we addressed it with a best-in-class solution. I'm pleased to report that our integration is on track. Our first cohort of customers has migrated to the solution. Our second and third cohorts are expected to be completed by year-end which leads us prepared to onboard new PEO customers during our busiest time in January. The third ingredient in achieving sustainable growth is new sales. In the second quarter, sales ended flat year-over-year with sequential improvement through the quarter. The challenges we encountered in March persisted into April before abating. Sales momentum has returned, leaving us encouraged as we look forward. We outlined several initiatives at the start of the year designed to improve our distribution and further differentiate our benefits offering, and we've made meaningful progress on both fronts. First, we're doing a better job retaining our most experienced sales consultants. The total number of reps with more than 4 years of experience is up 7% year-over-year. As we've discussed, senior reps are our most productive, and we've seen that become even more true over time. The productivity of our senior reps improved by 13% year-over-year in Q2, and on average, they were 5x more productive than our first-year reps, retaining and growing our senior reps is critical. Over the next 2 years, we expect this group to grow further as successful Level 2 and 3 reps graduate into their ranks. We created our ASCEND program to build a repeatable means of hiring, training and retaining sales professionals feeding a much higher percentage of them into our senior rep ranks than was the case through our historical approaches. Our first ASCEND class of just over 20 reps moves into production in Q3 and as we have expanded our ASCEND program nationally, over 100 new reps have been hired into the program. We expect to send cohorts to graduate quarterly into production throughout 2027 and form the primary means by which we build a strong culture and sustainable sales talent factory. During 2025, we slowed our traditional hiring as we built out the ASCEND program. This resulted in an overall contraction of the sales force in the second half of 2025 and the first half of this year. With our new recruiting, selection and training motions now rolling new reps into production, we expect to show year-over-year increases in total sales consultants in the current quarter, and we expect to see this growth continue. Finishing the year with approximately 20% more sales consultants than we finished 2025. Like each element of our strategy, with our sales force, we focus on approaches that generate sustainable long-term improvement. We are heading into our busiest selling season with a sales force that has more experienced reps and is growing in absolute numbers as well. A second element of our distribution strategy is our broker channel, which continues to demonstrate growth. This channel expands our distribution through national broker partnerships with incentives for new sales and retention. At the end of Q2, the broker channel represented 32% of new sales with RFPs up a robust 54% year-over-year. While this channel is more competitive than direct sales, we believe that deeper broker partnerships should result in more broker-generated leads aligned with our target customers. Retention based incentives to brokers are critical for this alignment. Benefit brokers have deep expertise, and we know that benefits is a primary reason that our targeted clients come to the PEO business model. TriNet is uniquely positioned here given our national scale and ability to take and manage risk. As the fall selling season comes into focus, our insurance services team has introduced innovations to our health plan offering. First, we expanded our benefits plan library to cover a wider array of price points and invested in AI to match client needs around coverage and cost with the appropriate set of bundled plan choices. These bundles will be in market for our fall selling season. Second, in July, we launched our enhanced health plan pricing engine, creating a more structured, responsive and scalable pricing model. We believe the new health plan pricing engine will improve proposal quality, speed and consistency, strengthening broker and seller confidence and leading to greater stability in pricing over time. The combination of benefits, investments and added distributions underpin our confidence in growing sales through the second half of 2026. In summary, we believe we are progressing well against our growth plan. At midyear, we are raising full year earnings guidance. Our health plan pricing is better aligned with market trends. Retention is improving and our focus on customer service, including the Cocoon integration and application of AI is delivering results. We are retaining our senior reps, expanding the sales force as our first ASCEND class joins the team entering the fall selling season with our benefits bundles and improved health plan pricing process. Our performance this year and our improved outlook reflects our disciplined execution and meaningful progress. Having completed much of the work required to stabilize the business, we are focused on driving returns from the growth investments we've made. As a final note, earlier this week, we announced that TriNet was recognized by time, Newsweek and U.S. News & World Report as a top workplace. We have asked a lot of our colleagues over the last 2 years, and this sort of recognition reflects our colleagues' dedication and our continued focus on building a strong culture. I know many of our colleagues are listening to this call, and I want to thank all of them for all they're doing to deliver these strong results and build our growth story in a high-quality and sustainable way. With that, I'd like to turn things over to Mala. Mala?

Thank you, Mike. I'm pleased with TriNet's second quarter execution, which was characterized by disciplined pricing, better-than-expected insurance results improved retention, prudent cost management and solid financial results. Our focus remains on executing our strategy and returning our business to top line growth. With that, let's dive into our second quarter financial performance. Total revenues were $1.2 billion, declining 5% year-over-year in the second quarter impacted by lower WSE volumes when compared to last year, offset in part by insurance and professional service revenue pricing. Q2 total revenues reflect the impact of our first quarter repricing efforts. An impact we expect to feel throughout the year. Exiting Q1, our WSE count was modestly lower than originally forecast and as we exit Q2, we are realizing modestly better insurance performance. We finished the quarter with approximately 300,000 total WSEs, down 12% year-over-year and flat sequentially. As a reminder, total WSEs include platform users or those users who are accessing our platform as well as co-employed WSEs or those users receiving the full benefit of our PEO services. We ended the second quarter with approximately 274,000 total co-employed WSEs down 11%, largely due to the cumulative impact of our repricing actions in the first quarter. Our full year retention forecast remains on track and we expect to see year-over-year retention improve through the second half. On CIE, historically, the second quarter is our strongest quarter. This year, we saw customer hiring consistent with what we saw last year and in line with our forecast. CIE didn't move backwards in the quarter, but we have yet to see it accelerate. Professional services revenue in the second quarter was $159 million, declining 8% but outperforming our forecast. Professional service revenue continues to be impacted by lower co-employed WSEs. The out-performance relative to our forecast was due to firm pricing continued favorability in our reporting methodology for state tax-related revenue and revenue from Cocoon. ASO continued to perform in line with expectations. Interest revenue in the second quarter was $12 million, a decline of 33% versus the prior year and in line with our forecast. As in the first quarter, the expected reduction of cash balances for certain tax credits drove the decline, consistent with our initial interest revenue guidance for the year. Turning to Q2 insurance services performance. Insurance service revenues declined 4%, primarily driven by lower overall WSEs offset by pricing. Insurance costs declined by 8% year-over-year. As a result, our second quarter insurance cost ratio came in at 86%, a 4-point year-over-year improvement. In the quarter, we saw health cost trends stabilize in the high single digits, slightly favorable to our forecast and in line with broader trends. In the quarter, we realized fewer inpatient procedures than forecast, and we experienced lower pharma cost inflation than expected. On pharma costs, the adoption of biosimilars such as for HUMIRA and STELARA and the stabilization of GLP-1 usage kept cost inflation lower than forecast. We do not view our lower pharma cost inflation as a change in trend given the probable future introduction of high-cost drugs. Given how we've managed our risk over the last year, we realized approximately two points of year-over-year improvement in insurance cost ratio from favorable prior year development, just as we did in the first quarter. The other two points of our year-over-year improvement was due to the recovery of previously expensed insurance administrative costs incurred in the previous decade. This onetime benefit was a small part of a larger recovery to which we were one of many recipients. In the second quarter, operating expenses, which exclude insurance cost and interest expense, declined by 1% year-over-year. Expenses in the quarter included incremental Cocoon costs as well as other personnel-related expenses. With our improved earnings in the first half, we have an opportunity to strategically invest in growth and efficiency. In the second half, we are accelerating investments into three broad buckets: our distribution efforts, our benefits offerings and our service model. These investments will incorporate AI throughout. Most of this incremental spend is slated for the current fiscal year. Turning to earnings. Second quarter GAAP earnings per diluted share were $1.15 and adjusted net income per diluted share was $1.55. Our business remains a strong cash-generative business, which supports our investment priorities and business execution. During the second quarter, we generated $128 million in adjusted EBITDA, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 10.9%. We generated $88 million in net cash provided by operating activities and grew free cash flow by 18% to $67 million. Free cash flow benefited from disciplined expense management and better than forecast insurance performance. Our capital priorities remain reinvesting in our business for growth, M&A and returning capital to shareholders via share repurchases and dividends. In the second quarter, we leveraged our cash generation to return $31 million to shareholders across share repurchases and dividends. We repurchased approximately 500,000 shares for $18 million and we paid a $0.29 dividend in the quarter. Turning to our 2026 outlook. We are adjusting our full year guidance to reflect our first half performance and updated 2026 forecast. For total revenues, we are currently trending at or slightly below the midpoint of our current guidance range, primarily due to lower insurance service revenues. Professional service revenue guidance is being raised, reflecting our stronger than forecast performance. Given the out-performance of insurance costs in the first half, we are improving our ICR range and raising both our adjusted EBITDA margin and earnings per share ranges. The improved ICR range includes most of the first half favorability including our onetime recovery benefit. In the second half, we expect normal ICR seasonality, which means second half ICR should be higher than the first half driven by utilization patterns, deductibles being met and pooling limit resets. While they have moved beyond our difficult yet necessary repricing efforts, health cost trends remain persistently high. As such, we will continue to price in the aggregate, targeting the high end of our long-term 87% (sic) [ 86% ] to 90% ICR range. For 2026, Total revenues remain in the range of $4.75 billion to $4.9 billion, while our professional services revenue range is raised to $647 million to $663 million. We are improving our ICR range lower to 89.5% to 88.5%. Our adjusted EBITDA margin range is being raised to 8.5% to 9%. GAAP earnings per diluted share are now in the range of $2.85 to $3.35, with adjusted earnings per diluted share raised to a range of $4.50 to $5.10. I'm encouraged by our second quarter results and the ongoing execution of our plan. We remain disciplined with our pricing as we navigate persistently high medical inflation and continue to make progress on our key strategic priorities. Our year-to-date financial performance has enabled us to raise our full year guidance. We remain prudent with our investments while expanding margins year-over-year. And we believe we are better positioned for the second half. With that, I will pass the call to the operator for Q&A.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Jared Levine with TD Cowen.

To start, Mike, I wanted to dig into in terms of the flat sales growth in Q2 despite some of the improvements in both productivity and I guess, retention of the most experienced sales reps there. I guess what drives the confidence to return to sales growth in the second half of the year here? Is that more so growth of the remaining base? Or I guess, some additional increases in productivity or headcount on that most experienced tenured cohort there. That would be great.

Thanks for the question. And we mentioned the -- we saw sort of decisioning get elongated at the -- and we talked about that with sort of the tail end of the first quarter, and that sort of persisted into the first part of the second quarter. And we've seen sequential month-over-month improvement as we work our way through 2Q and just kind of sitting here in July, encouraged with the results here, too. So it feels like to sort of see the momentum emerging. To your point, it is good to see kind of our total rep staffing number inflect here again, where we sit in July and be back into growing that total number going forward. And the other piece, I think, I just would highlight again is the growth in the broker channel has been very encouraging for us. So that's been a driver of this emerging momentum. So if you look at it in terms of the pipeline, at the end of 1Q, we talked about a 12% year-over-year increase in broker-driven RFPs now that's up over 50% growth as we close out 2Q in terms of the number of RFPs. So, there's just a number of factors, these investments that we've been making in the ASCEND program, the staffing program, retaining senior reps, getting the broker channel going that sort of gives us a lot of confidence that the full year growth that we talked about in sales is still absolutely our target and expectation and that material here in the second half.

Got it. And then I wanted to dig into the updated ICR guidance here. So at the midpoint of the range, if I kind of look at the second half, it doesn't seem to suggest any improvement year-on-year. I guess I would have expected some improvement just due to the repricing effort. So are there any kind of onetime impacts in the second half that we should be aware of in terms of that comp? Or maybe is this just an element of conservatism? I guess, can you kind of help us understand kind of why that second half doesn't seem to suggest any improvement year-on-year on that ICR?

Yes. Thank you for the question. If I think about our ICR trajectory through the year. Just let's start with the fact that we have seen significant out-performance in ICR year-to-date, both in Q1 and Q2, as we said in our prepared remarks. We've talked about the drivers of the Q2 out-performance year-over-year, 4.2 of which is prior period development capability. The second is a onetime item. We've also talked about the fact that if you look at medical trends at this moment in time, they are persistently high. Now we are seeing slight favorability in our book relative to what we had previously assumed when we set guidance. But I would say the trends remain in the high single digits as we have shared all along. So with that as a background, if I now think about the second half, there are a few things that are informing our guidance. The first is our historical experience does suggest that we could see some lumpiness and volatility in our claims experience in the second half. And we are essentially factoring that in as we think about the guidance range. Recognize the guidance range, if you look at the change in guidance and anchor to the more favorable end of the guidance, that essentially accounts for a lot of the year-to-date capabilities that we have seen. The other thing I would just remind you and everyone is we do see second half seasonality in ICR, and we expect to see that this year as well. And that is essentially based on utilization factors, the fact that deductibles are being met, pooling limit resets, all of that, we expect to see this year as well. So that's sort of informing all of -- we have put all of that into our guidance as we have thought about our new updated improved guidance.

The next question comes from David Grossman with Stifel.

This is [indiscernible] for David Grossman, Mike, maybe one for you. Now that you've had some time to implement your go-to-market changes, and they're beginning to take shape, specifically in the broker channel. What's resonating most with the brokers and leading to this kind of increase in RFPs? And yes. I guess let's just start with that.

Thanks for the question. And we are encouraged with the growth in the channel for really two reasons. One is the results that are emerging and the second is just the potential. So as we look at sort of where the RFPs are coming from and the amount of production on individual kind of local broker basis. We know we're in a lot of ways just sort of beginning to scratch the surface a potential. And we talked about this 2 years ago, PEO is an under-penetrated market, but SMBs that get health care, 90% plus of them get it through health insurance brokers. So what's resonating. I think it's boringly simple, but it's making sure that we put the right talent at the local level matched with the right broker producers, hence the need to sort of retain our senior people that you've got to meet expertise with expertise. We've redesigned processes to make sure we're giving trusted adviser access to brokers as our standard operating procedure and including them in renewal discussions. It's making sure that you're putting dedicated client service personnel against not just customer by customer, but the broker block overall. So there's no one factor, but it's really sort of thinking about the life cycle from prospecting quoting, all the way through renewing a book of business where you're trying to really show up as a partner for these firms.

Great. And then just a follow-up on the retention you guys are seeing with total WSEs roughly flat sequentially and the improvement in retention, when should we expect kind of the WSE growth to start to trend positively? I know you said stabilized and then turn positive. And then when a client does decide to leave where are they typically going? Is it getting brought in-house and a different solution. But if you could give some insight there, that would be great.

Yes, sure. I do think we've got good evidence here in 2Q on the progress we've made in putting a really firm foundation in place, getting like Mala was saying, the ICR back into our targeted range. Seeing retention increase nicely here in the second quarter, having our NPS at a stable and a really positive spot. So that firm foundation, I think, is really important to us. And our next sort of mile markers revenue growth. So as this retention is improving, it slows the rate of decline in the WSEs. We continue to price as Mala said, for that high single-digit market-wide health care cost trend and that -- those pricing actions outpaced the WSE decline and the net is revenue growth. And so we can sort of see our way to that the next mile marker and then following that, to your specific question is like, okay, now as we're capturing the full value of the growth investments that we talked about in the distribution, both our reps and channel in our benefits offering in our service proposition, the sum total of those investments is what turns the corner on the WSE growth. And we're not in a spot like today to try to pinpoint the exact timing of that. But in terms of like the next couple of mile markers, it feels like quite comfortable there. To where do they go? I mean, I think I've talked a little bit in the prepared remarks, it is very encouraging to see the health care reason, which typically means they're leaving us due to health care pricing. They're very often going into an open market solution of some type. That as a reason is coming down. Also service as the reason for departure is coming down as we continue to invest in the NPS results that we're generating. I don't see any dramatic changes in the competitive landscape. We have a good robust set of competitors out there. But in general, if it's health care, they're very often ending up in open market solutions and multi-vendor. If it's a service related, that's where we might lose to another competitor.

The next question comes from Tobey Sommer with Truist.

This is Tyler Barishaw for Tobey. Sticking with the WSE growth, saw some slight improvement in the year-over-year rate in the quarter. How should we think about it in the second half? Should we expect a similar slight improvement on a year-over-year basis?

Yes. What I would say is, we said this in our prepared remarks, I would expect in the second half, a couple of things to happen, we do expect retention to improve on a year-over-year basis as we traverse through the second half. We saw that in Q2, and we expect to continue to see that as we go through the year. And then the second thing I would say is, as Mike has elaborated in his prepared remarks, we are also looking for new sales to ramp as we go through the second half. So if you think about the drivers that are informing sort of behind your question, I would look for those two as we think about our WSE trajectory in the second half.

The next question comes from Kyle Peterson with Needham & Company.

Great. I wanted to start out on the ASO progress. It sounds like that is going well. But I guess maybe just a quick update, how is that progressing relative to plan? And any other feedback or thoughts on the traction you guys are seeing there so far?

Yes, absolutely. The ASO product is one we're quite excited about. And good to see continued double-digit growth here in the quarter. As we talked about, it's a relatively small business in the scheme of things that we're looking to grow. I would say it also presents a great opportunity for us to be thinking about innovation and where can we take different approaches to that market. So we're excited about the growth, I would say, equally excited about what we're learning in that market and how we can apply that learning to some different approaches over time. But yes, it remains something that we're quite focused on.

One other thing, when we had given our guidance at the beginning of the year, what we had talked about was a net headwind to our 2026 guidance in the range of $10 million to $15 million. As of now, we are tracking towards the more favorable end of that range.

Okay. Great. That is very helpful. And then as a follow-up, I wanted to dig a little more into the insurance profitability. Good to see the quarter and the outlook better. I guess kind impact. It sounds like some of the things that have been timing driven with some the inpatient procedures being down and it sounds like you guys are expecting kind of pharma costs not to, I guess, stay below forecast. So I guess, how should we think about like how much of an impact was potential timing this quarter versus anything better in the core that would be maybe a little more sustainable moving forward?

Yes. Yes. I would not characterize the favorability that we have seen in our performance both in the quarter and year-to-date as timing. What drove our improvement in cost ratio year-over-year and as well as versus our expectations is really two things. One is the onetime benefit that we spoke about in our prepared remarks, that was about half of our year-over-year improvement. The other one really is prior year development favorability. And what I would say on that one is it's just really important to understand what that means. The way we work our insurance book is we monitor prior period development in our medical reserves as an indicator of emerging cost trends. And in recent quarters, claims have developed more favorably, slightly more favorably than we had initially expected, and that obviously suggests that the underlying health care cost growth has been moderating relative to the assumptions that we had embedded when we built up our reserves. So the important point is the favorable emergence that we are seeing behind the prior period development is consistent with the stabilization in health care cost trends. And I wanted to elaborate on this because what's important is the stabilization. It's still high. Let's not forget that it's still in the high single digits, but it is stable. And so that is not timing. It is a trend.

The next question comes from Brendan Biles with JPMorgan.

Excited to hear all the talk about sales and selling motion. Two kind of quick questions on that. First of all, how are you retaining the sales folks, the high-performing sales folks for longer I think that's a great development, how sustainable is that? And then lastly, looking back on the fall selling season, kind of like premortem, what metrics are you going to use to define success? And how will you know that it's a very successful fall selling season here?

Brendan, thanks for the question. On the retention of senior reps, I think pretty straightforward. One is making it a focus looking at things like incentives for sure, again, looking back probably 18 months ago, I think the revenue leadership team has done a very good job in investing in the front line and regional management teams and improving them as leaders and building a stronger culture there. I think a lot of it is also making sure that we're providing good tools and good support. We spent a lot of time talking about how do you pull sales friction out of the process. We're really looking at that entire life cycle and saying, where can we improve our tooling, where can we make things easier where can we provide a second set of hand and for that, one of the exciting things that the team has done is as we're bringing new people into the ASCEND program, they are assigned out to senior reps. And so obviously, there's the mentorship advantage to the junior people, but it also means that our ASCEND folks are right there to help, and to take some of the administrative work and keep prospects moving through the pipeline for the senior folks. So there nice symbiotic relationship that's developed there. So again, a lot of little things that contribute to just being able to tell a compelling story about why this is a fantastic place to build a sales career. And then in terms of success in the second half, for us, it's showing good strong year-over-year growth, which again is what we're anticipating here as we look at the pipeline and look at the investments that we've made in it. We would love to continue to see the acceleration on the broker side. As our sales reps staffing in total and some of the newer reps are rolling out into production, we were very much targeting growth in our direct channel, which remains our primary go-to-market motion as well. So those are some of the things we're looking at.

The next question comes from Kevin McVeigh with UBS.

Great. I'll add my congratulations as well. I guess -- how are you thinking about, Mike, I guess, two things. It seems like the broker channel is going to more influence the revenue trajectory, if that's right? Help us understand where that's been historically, what you expect it to be in terms of contribution? And then with that, remind us what's the profitability of a new client as opposed to existing?

Great. And just to clarify, Kevin, is that last of broker versus direct question? Or are you saying -- or the question is just more like what's the first year of profitability for any channel?

Any channel. You've got a sales commission in there and stuff like that. So I think at this point being, you're going to see some nice momentum as that attrition improves initially, and then just how you're thinking about that?

Yes. No, that makes great sense. So thinking of [ tied ] rough terms, about 1/3 of our new business coming in year-to-date is through the brokerage channel and that's growing. I would expect as the staffing clicks in -- we're making some targeted investments here in marketing to support as direct starts to move again in the right direction. I would expect that direct will remain more than half of how we're acquiring you clients over the medium term as far as we can see. But again, think about it in terms of the mix at about 1/3 broker. Yes, the business model is one where profitability builds with tenure, and that's both because of the cost of acquisition but then when you're a risk-taking PEO like we are, the reality it is, you're going to understand that risk a lot better and once you've been through, say, two renewal -- annual renewal cycles on the insurance products, that's going to put us in a much better place in terms of getting that price lined up really well with the risk. So it really underscores why retention is so important, not only in driving volume growth, but in terms of the margins we're targeting in the business.

That makes a ton of sense. And then I guess, Mike, if you can say whether next question when you think about AI within the organization, right, we can't do a call without talking about AI. But are you leveraging that to get better intelligence on existing clients? Do you think -- when you think about AI fully implemented, if it slows the WSE growth, which it might, I don't know if it will or not, there's probably offset maybe pricing maybe it's new plans. But how are you thinking about it as you implement it internally, both from a revenue perspective as well as from an expense?

Yes. Well, 6 question in before AI hit, Kevin. So that's good. I think the -- what we're very excited about. I'll give you a very good simple use case. And so what our data and analytics team has done is built what we call a customer health score. And what that does is it uses AI to monitor every single interaction that we have with anyone inside of any one particular client. And what we do is based on the sentiment of the type of transaction or service order, it helps us kind of aggregate that into a collective score which not surprising correlates really well to what ultimately would be the NPS and the retention. So what AI is increasingly doing is enabling us to take all this what sort of transactional information and aggregated up to being a lot smarter and proactive in how we manage that client base. And ultimately, that helps us do a better job for our clients. It helps us drive up that NPS and drive up retention, which is a big revenue driver for us. So whether it's helping our service teams be on the front foot, more proactive to drive retention, whether it's the AI that we're using to select the right health care bundle in the fall selling season based on client preferences or whether it's TriNet Assistant that's helping today largely our WSEs get answers to their questions any time day or night. It's -- we're actually really, really excited about the impact that it can have, first and foremost, on us doing a better job for our clients, second growth and certainly there's efficiency gains, too.

Just a quick follow-up on these points. Is it affording the opportunity to make better decisions in terms of client selection upfront?

Yes, I would say that we're playing with some things on that front. I wouldn't look at you and say, hey, the new business that we're writing today is materially informed based on sort of insights driven by AI, but I think that's very possible use case for us down the road.

I do believe that the use of AI that we have in our sales motion we are giving tools to our salespeople when they are prospecting to be better informed about the clients that they are going after. And that makes them more effective and ultimately will result in a better win rate. So it has those kinds of ancillary benefits and we are going to invest more into tools like that. Just talked about use of AI in our benefits bundle. If you think about our use of AI on the customer service side, we've talked in our prepared remarks about TriNet's Assistant. What's exciting about that is it actually allows us to up-skill our colleagues on the service delivery side because a lot of the calls are now being handled through TriNet's Assistant. So it all has direct and many indirect impacts, if you will, on revenue and efficiency and importantly, NPS.

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mike Simonds for any closing remarks.

Thanks, everybody, for joining today. Mala and I look forward to continuing the dialogue in person in many cases, over the coming weeks. And with that, Megan, we can conclude today's call.

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.