Earnings Labs

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Jan 28, 2016

$465.45

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Thermo Fisher Scientific 2015 Fourth Quarter Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. I would like to introduce our moderator for the call, Mr. Kenneth Apicerno, Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. Apicerno, you may begin the call.

Kenneth J. Apicerno - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Good morning and thank you for joining us. On the call with me today is Marc Casper, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Stephen Williamson, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please note, this call is being webcast live and will be archived on the Investor section of our website, thermofisher.com, under the heading Webcast & Presentations until February 26, 2016. A copy of the press release of our fourth quarter 2015 earnings and future expectations is available in the Investors section of our website under the heading Financial Results. So before we begin, let me briefly cover our Safe Harbor statement. Various remarks that we may make about the company's future expectations, plans and prospects constitute forward-looking statements for purposes of the Safe Harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward-looking statements as a result of various important factors, including those discussed in the company's Annual Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 26, 2015 under the caption Risk Factors, which is on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission and also available on the Investors section of our website under the heading SEC Filings. While we may elect to update future-looking statements at some point in the future, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so even if our estimates change. Therefore, you should not rely on these forward-looking statements as representing our views as of any date subsequent to today. Also during this call, we'll be referring to certain financial measures not prepared in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, or GAAP. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is available in the press release of our fourth quarter 2015 earnings and…

Kenneth J. Apicerno - Vice President-Investor Relations

Operator

Thanks, Stephen. Operator, we're ready to take questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now conduct the question-and-answer session. Your first question comes from the line of Derik De Bruin from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Derik De Bruin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Hi, good morning. Marc N. Casper - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning. Stephen Williamson - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Good morning.

Derik De Bruin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Great. So, I think we're all a little bit surprised that the EPS guidance is a little bit lower for 2016 than we had anticipated. I guess – I mean, Stephen, you went through a number of the ones, I think where our model was off. I think we had the share count was a little higher and the interest expense was a little bit higher, I think, sort of giving the biggest hits there. But can you just talk a little bit more about sort of like the mix impacts? If I remember correctly from the old Invitrogen, Life days, as that business sort of picks up, it has a much bigger impact in terms of the hit to the gross margin on that business from FX. I guess, can you talk a little bit more about sort of like mix dynamics, how that's playing out and sort of – you obviously are seeing stronger strength in the LPS business, and just sort of walk through what's going on and just sort of how you're thinking about sort of the product mix here and how much of that is impacting the business? Marc N. Casper - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So, Derik, I'll start and then Stephen will add to it. So, thanks for the question. There's $0.19 of FX headwind in the 2016 numbers, right? So, that's actually what the big thing that needs to be understood, right? There was $0.06 incremental after our guidance in the fourth quarter that we drove past and actually beat. So when you take it, 6% to 8% is our guidance for the year; on an FX-neutral basis, it's 8% to 10%. And obviously, it's only assuming the $500 million of capital deployment, which is the buybacks we already did in 2016. Obviously, we're going to get the benefit of Affymetrix later in the year. And we obviously have tremendous amount of capacity to do other things. We just don't want to decide exactly what we're going to do, sitting here, at the end of January, but there are things that we will do to drive more but we wanted to provide absolute clarity of very strong underlying operating performance, big FX headwind that we're working our way through and lots of balance sheet opportunity down the road. Stephen, anything you want to talk about on mix? Stephen Williamson - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: So, mix, no, nothing unusual in the mix side that's driving anything positive or negative in 2016.

Derik De Bruin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Great. And just one quick follow-up question. When you sort of look at the end markets, what are sort of your expectations in terms of China and Latin America and sort of how does that flow into 2016? Marc N. Casper - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So from a geographic perspective, we executed very well in China during the course of last year. We clearly gained share from everything that we've heard from others. And we're expecting China to be one of our fastest-growing markets, probably low-double-digit type growth. It's hard to predict exactly but it will be a nice contributor to our growth for this year. For Latin America, Brazil was very soft last year. It's not a huge market for us and we're not assuming any improvement in our numbers. You can see it when Stephen was talking about rest of world. That's primarily Latin America declined a little bit last year and we're assuming a similar type environment.

Derik De Bruin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Great. Thanks. I'll get back in the queue. Marc N. Casper - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Derik.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ross Muken from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Ross Muken - Evercore ISI

Analyst · Ross Muken from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead

Hi. Good morning, guys. So, I guess as you guys were sort of staring at the consensus estimates and the $8 to $8.18 range, and you guys were contemplating where the guidance was and you were feeling where there were pushes and pulls in the P&L and where the Street had sort of gotten it wrong. I mean I guess what was sort of the internal debate around what you could push forward, whether or not – Affy [Affymetrix], which obviously pushed off some cap allocation, e.g., you could have done more buyback, had you not done that and that may have helped, I guess, versus the range but longer term may not have been the right decision. I guess, what were some of the key debate points? And then from a messaging perspective, do you feel like you kind of outlined enough for us to have figured this out more so than we did or do you think it really, with some of the macro moves, whether it was FX, et cetera, in the back half of the year, that stuff was moving around too much and it was difficult to sort of message? Marc N. Casper - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So, Ross, great question. There was no debate. We run the company to do the right thing for our shareholders and for our customers. We don't sit there and say that the consensus is right or wrong. We say what is great operating performance and great use of our capital to create shareholder value. So literally, there was zero debate. We look at what's out there externally. I mean that's why you heard longer remarks today, to really provide clarity on how we're thinking about the world. I think the things that I would take…

Ross Muken - Evercore ISI

Analyst · Ross Muken from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead

So, when you think about – obviously, again, this is a tough macro, so clearly the underlying ex FX is pretty good growth. Where do you see the biggest pushes and pulls just from an economic perspective in terms of some of the volatility? Obviously, we've looked at what's happened to the biotech sector and people worry about funding. There's been, obviously, the industrial side, some dislocations in parts of the world. FX movements have been a big deal. When you look at where the pushes and pulls are in the guide where you can really have on a top line basis sort of a differentiated outcome, where do you see the most sensitivity, I guess? Marc N. Casper - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes, so, Ross, so if you think about last year, we entered the year with a challenging environment. We delivered our strongest organic growth of 5% in a long time, right? And delivered it very solidly despite the fact that not every end market was robust. When we think about this year, we're assuming, as we did last year, we'll finish with about 4%. That's what we're targeting, but if we can do better we will. And if I think about the environment, one, academic and government, a little bit better than last year because of NIH funding. So we're expecting to be at the company average, which is better than the low-single digits last year. Diagnostics and healthcare, we're also expecting to be at the company average or about the company average, which is a little bit better than last year. The big swing factor is going to be biopharma. And it's not going to be the end market conditions; it's just going to be, we had a teens growth or low-double-digit growth last year and we're assuming from a starting point that we're going to grow mid- to high-single digits against the tough comps. So, that's the swing factor on the upside to it. And the team has done a good job over the last five years, six years, seven years of executing in that segment, and we'll keep you posted on how we do. So, I think it gives you good sense of how we're thinking about the world.

Ross Muken - Evercore ISI

Analyst · Ross Muken from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead

Great. Thanks. Marc N. Casper - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Ross.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tycho Peterson from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Tycho W. Peterson - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · Tycho Peterson from JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Hey, thanks. A question on the restructuring initiatives you talked about. If you look at kind of what's going on in the industrial world, all these companies are taking pretty aggressive restructuring actions. Can you maybe talk about whether this is the first of potentially several steps, whether you think you're doing enough with this initial step, and how you came to kind of the magnitude of the initial restructuring? Marc N. Casper - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Our business is growing 5% organically, so we're not in restructuring mode. What we're doing is saying we want to ensure we're going to drive strong profitability growth for the long term and there are things that we can do that have good paybacks but cost a bunch of money up front in terms of optimizing facilities and you have double costs, those kinds of things. So, we're getting them underway now so that when those things are put into place, basically in 2017, you get a further tailwind on restructuring. We've managed this company through multiple recessions. Both Stephen and I have been here 15 years, right? But right now, end markets are good. Bookings were very strong, right? So if something happens that slows growth down, we know how to take the actions to drive short-term profit growth to deal with a tough environment. But we ended the year with our best quarter in many years and very strong bookings. So, we're just doing the prudent things to drive earnings growth and we'll monitor the end markets very, very closely.

Tycho W. Peterson - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · Tycho Peterson from JPMorgan. Please go ahead

And then on capital deployment, as you get back in the back half of the year, should we think about maybe more emphasis on buybacks in light of the multiples you're seeing from an M&A standpoint right now? Marc N. Casper - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: What I would say is that we have a significant capacity to deploy, and we will look at what is the right thing for the shareholder base as the months unfold this year, whether it's more buybacks or more M&A opportunities. We're evaluating the different choices. We got a good M&A pipeline. We have an attractive stock. So, you'll see us continue to be active as the year unfolds.

Tycho W. Peterson - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · Tycho Peterson from JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Okay. Then, last one for Stephen. Can you just quantify the extra day impact? Stephen Williamson - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: The extra day impact in Q4?

Tycho W. Peterson - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · Tycho Peterson from JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Correct. Stephen Williamson - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: I'm sure it contributed to the overall number, but it's not a significant part of the growth.

Tycho W. Peterson - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · Tycho Peterson from JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Okay, thank you. Marc N. Casper - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Tycho.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Beuchaw from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Steve C. Beuchaw - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking the questions. I'm going to do my best to try to put words in your mouth. As I listen to the commentary around the strength of the order funnel, the commentary around end market outlooks for 2016, it sounds like the one growth consideration that might drive a bit of incremental slowing is a normal and appropriate degree of caution around pharma, just because the comps are simply tough, no signal of slowing in the order funnel. So as I look at the model and I say, okay, there's a guide for 7% organic in the first quarter, 4% for the full year, it implies some slowing over the balance of the year. I want to say that's just because we're taking a conservative view on how pharma plays out here in the early days of the year. Is that the right way to think about it? Marc N. Casper - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Steve, everything is accurate up until the calendarization issue. So we're being prudent on the full year guidance, because we have a tough comparison in biopharma. Our aspirations, of course, will be high, and we'll keep you posted. The layout for the calendarization is we literally have almost a full extra week in Q1 and obviously a full – almost a full less week in Q4. So from a modeling perspective, roughly 7% in the first quarter, and obviously a bigger offset in Q4, kind of still gets to the 4%. So we are actually assuming kind of level activity, and the calendar just leads you to 7% in the first…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Isaac Ro from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Isaac Ro - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Good morning, guys. Thanks. I wanted to ask a question about your 2016 guidance, as it relates to gross margin. I don't think you guys gave a lot of color on what you're expecting there. But as I look at the fourth quarter performance, obviously, LPS had a great result, and that tends to be your lowest-margin division. So as I think about what you're looking for for this year, should we assume that out-performance in LPS could weigh a little bit on gross margin and accordingly drop through to EPS as well? I'm just trying to square up the other questions on the 2016 EPS guide. Stephen Williamson - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yes. So I'm expecting a slight improvement in gross margins year over year in aggregate, and then the rest of the expansion comes from SG&A. So in terms of mix, I'm not expecting a dramatic change in mix the way that we're assuming that these things play out over the coming year. Isaac Ro - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Okay. So if I had to kind of deconstruct the delta between sell side 2016, kind of consensus EPS and your guidance, it looks like it's mostly FX, and then maybe to a lesser extent share repurchase? Stephen Williamson - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: I – I don't know. I don't know what you are modeling, so we gave you – we gave the detailed guidance of what we are assuming in our model. So - Isaac Ro - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Right, but assuming you guys have a view on what consensus numbers we're looking at, I just want to make sure I understood the sources of the delta. Stephen Williamson - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Honestly, I have no idea what people are assuming for foreign exchange. The estimates give a top line and give an EPS number, and I don't see any detail there. So I can tell you what we have assumed in our model going forward. Isaac Ro - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Right. Right, no. I got the FX guidance. Thanks a bunch. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jon Groberg from UBS. Please go ahead.

Jonathan Groberg - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · Jon Groberg from UBS. Please go ahead

Great. Thanks and first of all, congratulations on a strong quarter. I think it was your highest growth rate since first quarter of 2010, if we're right here, so congratulations on that. Marc N. Casper - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Jonathan Groberg - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · Jon Groberg from UBS. Please go ahead

I guess if I'm doing the math, it looks like on your organic growth, plus the life synergies you laid out, the life EBITDA synergies it kind of gives you $0.66 cents or so, and then you're talking about a 2% headwind from FX, you don't include any of the capital deployment. I guess I'm thinking a little bit further out, Marc, if you think about what you laid out at your analyst day on 2018, it sounds like you went out of your way to highlight that you still think the margin target is achievable. Kind of – what's your view on what you laid out at 2018 as what the EPS could look like? Has that changed at all today? Marc N. Casper - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I mean, obviously, Jon, we'll get into that in May. We've never been concerned, even if we didn't take the actions about the ability to get to the 24 to 26 or drive a very strong performance that we outlined in May, but our goal is not to be at the lower end of that range. Our goal is to be at the higher end of that range, right? So we're taking the actions now to put us higher, you know, higher up in those ranges. So, when I think about last year, one of the things we got tremendously positive feedback was talking about philosophy and the philosophy of how we're dealing with FX, and I think what you're getting today is we're telling about you the philosophy that we – when we laid out our commitments in May, the world looks different, and we sort of don't care. We're going to navigate through it and deliver outstanding short and long-term financial performance and hence while picking a small point around a $15 million investment, I think it gives you the sense of the philosophy that we're very proactive in managing the business to deliver a really great financial performance.

Jonathan Groberg - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · Jon Groberg from UBS. Please go ahead

Okay. That's helpful. And then just a quick follow-up, it looks like, one, just to clarify, it looks like you're not going to provide book-to-bill anymore and then what are your pricing expectations for 2016? Stephen Williamson - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yes, so, actually, Jon, so I didn't give book-to-bill information. It's just not that relevant a metric for the company now, where we have over 75% recurring revenue stream. So, yes, for a large instruments business, it's a relevant metric. For us, it's – we just don't see it as that relevant. I didn't include it in my script and we don't include it in the recon package. Just so you know what the number is, it's actually slightly positive, 0.5% for Q4. So – but as I said, it's just not that relevant of a metric for us. And then in terms of your second question – I've completely forgotten what your second question was.

Jonathan Groberg - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · Jon Groberg from UBS. Please go ahead

Just in terms of pricing benefit you expect in 2016. Stephen Williamson - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Sure. So, I think about the underlying pricing environment hasn't really changed from what we're seeing of our end markets from the last – really the last sort of three years or four years including this year. Now what we did in 2015 was drive some FX offset actions with some additional targeted price actions which brought our pricing number up. And we'll get a little bit of carryover from that, so pricing year over year in 2016, it will be very similar to 2015, so just over half a percent of price, but underlying, I don't think the pricing dynamics are significantly different in the industry.

Jonathan Groberg - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · Jon Groberg from UBS. Please go ahead

Thanks.

Kenneth J. Apicerno - Vice President-Investor Relations

Operator

Thanks, Jon. So, operator, we have time for one more.

Operator

Operator

Certainly, your last question comes from the line of Jack Meehan from Barclays, please go ahead.

Jack Meehan - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays, please go ahead

Hi, thanks. Good morning. Marc N. Casper - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning.

Jack Meehan - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays, please go ahead

I'm curious for the fourth quarter we have now seen a few years where the fourth quarter was seasonally stronger. I guess I'm curious what your view was on budget flushes toward the end of the year, what was sort of true growth in the fourth quarter and what might have – what we can be expecting in terms of the first quarter, whether there are some moving parts there. Marc N. Casper - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So, Jack, good question. So, the way the world is playing out over the last few years is that customers generally are being conservative early in the year, and I don't mean just one quarter but literally in first three quarters of the year, to deal with, you know, kind of unexpected adverse events whether they are macroeconomic or geopolitical. So we are seeing it across a wide range of customers where there's a conservatism. And as the year unfolds, and bad things really haven't happened, there's a much stronger year-end money, and we were very well positioned to capture it. Our team did a great job. When we look at the first quarter, because customers do a lot of activity late in the year, their demand is going to be a little bit softer but it's been a little bit softer in each of the previous few quarters. So I think as Stephen laid out the outlook for the year, that reflects the fact that customers start out conservatively and then build their spend as the year goes on. So I think we have that well characterized.

Jack Meehan - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays, please go ahead

Got it. And then just one follow-up similar to that, the academic segment, specifically, just given the NIH budget getting wrapped up toward year-end. What is your view? I think historically, it's been more the visibility around funding than the actual rate of growth itself. Just curious around the pace of some of that new funding going to work, what your expectations are for 2016. Marc N. Casper - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, so obviously, it's good news that our customers know that they can have better budgets. We think that some of that will be in Q1, but more likely Q2, Q3 is where you'll see the strength on the NIH-derived spending in terms of how the year will play out. Marc N. Casper - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So let me wrap it up. We are very pleased to deliver another solid year. We're obviously looking forward to continuing that momentum in 2016, and, of course, thank you for your support of Thermo Fisher Scientific. Thank you, everyone.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.