Earnings Labs

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (TMHC)

Q1 2016 Earnings Call· Wed, May 4, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Taylor Morrison’s First Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce Mr. Jason Lenderman, Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasury.

Jason Lenderman

Management

Thank you, Vanessa, and welcome everyone to Taylor Morrison’s first quarter 2016 earnings conference call. With me today are Sheryl Palmer, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Dave Cone, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Sheryl will begin the call with an overview of our business performance and our strategic priorities. Dave will take you through a financial review of our results along with our guidance for the next quarter and for the full year. Then, Sheryl will conclude with the outlook for the business after which we will be happy to take your questions. Before I turn the call over to Sheryl, let me remind you that today’s call, including the question-and-answer session, includes forward-looking statements that are subject to the Safe Harbor statement for forward-looking information that you will find in today’s news release. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to those factors identified in the release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and we do not undertake any obligation to update our forward-looking statements. Now, let me turn the call over to Sheryl Palmer.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Thank you, Jason, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today. With the first quarter of 2016 behind us, I’m pleased to share our results for what could only be described as a unique period. Despite the implications produced by the volatility in the stock market over the last several months, we had a healthy start to the spring season. Consistent with past quarters, I will share some thoughts about the business and industry in general and walk you through our vision and approach for the rest of the year. From there, Dave will provide a review of our operating results and I will close with some final remarks. Our hope is that you leave today’s call with the appreciation for our continued belief that the underlying market conditions for our industry are sound and that Taylor Morrison is well positioned to take advantage of those fundamentals. This conviction allows us to be consistent in our strategy and in the tactical execution of our plans. With that in mind, and before I dive into the details of our quarterly performance, I want to talk about a handful of national economic indicators that still suggest an overall healthy backdrop for homebuilding. Months of supply for both existing homes and new homes continue at good levels as demand and supply find an equilibrium. Existing home supply is roughly flat year-over-year at 4.5 months and new home supply is still in a good place at under six months. Building permits missed some estimates in the month of March but it’s important to note they were still up year-over-year and during that same release, February was revised upward, which represented a nine-year high. If we take a step back and look at the larger trends for these metrics, as opposed to focusing…

Dave Cone

Management

Thanks, Sheryl, and hello, everyone. Before I begin, I want to remind everyone of two changes communicated in our last earnings call. The first change was the expansion of our segment reporting from two to three areas within our home building operations. First, the West area which is comprised of operations within California, Arizona, Colorado and Illinois. Second, the Central area comprised of operations within Texas. And lastly, the East area which is comprised of operations in North Carolina, Georgia and Florida. For purposes of this call, I will focus on total company results with some added color where necessary for different segments. The second change was a shift in how we communicate margin results. Moving forward, I will only reference the GAAP homebuilding margin rate or put another way, the margin rate that includes capitalized interest. The intent in doing this is to simplify our financial story while also providing the best data points for financial modeling purposes. For the first quarter, net income was 26 million, which equated to $0.21 in earnings per share. As a reminder, the first quarter of 2015 included the sale of our Canadian operations as well as the hedge gain associated with that transaction. After adjusting for these two items, our adjusted net income was 21.1 million for the first quarter of last year. When doing that, our first quarter 2016 net income and EPS growth year-over-year is approximately 23%. We believe pointing this out is important in understanding our results from continuing operations given the transformative year we experienced in 2015. Home closings gross margin, including capitalized interest, was 18.2% for the quarter which was ahead of our expectations. On a year-over-year basis, our home closings gross margins increased 30 basis points. The main driver of the improvement was 65 basis points…

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Thank you, Dave. Dave mentioned a couple of topics that I’d like to expand on. First, let’s talk about labor. As Dave explained, we have seen some positive movement in certain markets such as Houston. There has been a gradual labor transfer happening between the oil industry and other industries such as homebuilding. That transfer was probably slower than some might have thought, so we have started to see some benefits come through. Of course, there still are markets in which labor is just as constrained as it was last year and we don’t expect any significant relief, only that pressure points will continue to move through different phases of the construction schedule. Phoenix is a good example for this case. Demand is high, volumes are up year-over-year and the frontend trade continued to fall further behind. Recognizing this is likely be a new normal for the industry for a while, we continue to work closely with our division to instill a superior plan production cadence in order to assist our trade partners in optimizing their efficiencies. Given our significant growth over the last few years and to complement the good work the team has done to continue growing our legacy business, we thought it was critical to further focus the team on enhanced excellence in operations. Alan Laing, our Executive Vice President of Homebuilding Operations just completed three months with the company and has already made a substantial impact. With the continued labor shortages that we have now been discussing in our industry for more than three years and a rising land and construction cost environment, the teams under Alan’s leadership have a heightened focus on the benefits that our new scale provides. As we have said since our IPO, there is a right time to aggressively grow our…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. We have our first question from Ivy Zelman with Zelman & Associates.

Ivy Zelman

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning, everybody. I appreciate you taking the questions.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Good morning.

Ivy Zelman

Analyst

Sheryl, can you start by just chatting a little with us about what’s going on in California? Obviously, the performance there on a year-over-year basis was under pressure. Do you feel good about that market? There’s been concern about high end and slowing, but many have not reported that in California. So, tell us what’s going on there. And then maybe just take us around some of the other markets, west – at the Mississippi? What’s happening in Arizona and Nevada and update in some of the core markets in terms of fundamentals and your level of conviction that things are off to a good start for this spring?

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Okay, you bet, Ivy. So let me start with I think California is what you specifically asked and I will head around the country. California is a few different stories to be quite honest about it. Let me take the stay and kind of break it apart. Let me start with the quarter and then I’ll kind of roll into March. Most of the story for us in California really just comes down to availability of products this year and then really the comps that we’ve had in 2015. So if I start in southern Cal, probably three quarters of our sales in Q1 '15 were delivered from four communities. And they were unique products, attached products and good price points. One of them was the Costa Mesa product, which was the lowest price point in the market. We had a lot of volume I guess is what I’m saying. And so when we look at where our sales came from and then we look at what’s happened with our new communities in southern California and the average sales price, which is now about $1 million, our paces are actually in line with our expectations. As I move up into northern California, we did have also some good comps there within the first quarter of 2015 and similar where we had some very, very high volume communities in first quarter of last year generating significant paces. As we’ve closed out of some of those communities – some of our new communities would be what I would call them more normal pace. When we get to the Bay, that’s a little bit different story. Last year we sold through the majority of our Silicon Valley project and when we replaced those, those generally tend to be in, like the East Bay.…

Ivy Zelman

Analyst

Extremely helpful, Sheryl, thank you for that. And I think just to follow up in summary on that, it sounds like there’s really not markets that at this point other than maybe Chicago which might be a little bit softer than you expected, generally it sounds like things are on track. So if we took Houston out which was down 25% I believe year-over-year, do you know what orders were year-over-year excluding Houston? I think we had a question from a client. And then secondly, the bigger question is on capital deployment and strategically where you’re investing for growth because what we hear from many is the challenges with respect to inflationary land and all of the components that go into that including impact fees and others. It’s much harder to pencil returns. So when you talked about – I think, Dave, you talked about how much money, I think you said 1 billion, that you’re on track to spend. Where is that money going? Where do you see within the portfolio the best opportunities and are you buying for now '18 and beyond and you’re pretty much set for '17?

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Okay, so let me hit the sales first, Ivy. I don’t have the breakout with me on sub-Houston but I think it’s important when you look at the central numbers to realize that Houston was down, no doubt about it. And as we’ve talked about, we had very strong compares and those continue. When I looked at Houston last year, some of our strongest months in 2015 were actually March and April. So that continued for us through the second quarter. Dallas, as I also mentioned, so that was a central number you saw down 25%. So Dallas was slightly down but not much at all, so most of it did come from Houston. On the capital deployment standpoint, as Dave mentioned, we’re going to spend just somewhere around $1 billion this year. When we look at what we approved in the first quarter, Ivy, it was across the board to be quite honest. Probably a little lighter in Houston of all markets, but we approved the land. So there’s really two ways to look at it. We look at both the dollars that went out the door and the spend that we approved. And when I look at the lots that we approved, there was a fair amount in our new markets; Atlanta and the Carolinas, some in California, Dallas. As you know, we’re bringing Taylor Morrison to Dallas and Phoenix as well. As you know, we did the land auction in Phoenix on the state land. I think your point about the markets, we’re having to take great care and consideration as we always have in our underwriting and the cadence around that, because some markets, we’ll take a step back and some markets we’re still very aggressive in.

Ivy Zelman

Analyst

When you mentioned the approval as opposed to thinking about something on there that’s new, is again think about your manufacturing machine of what you’re incrementally approving is going into the machine for '16 and '17 versus what’s new for '18? And I think just recognizing the last part of my question, and then I’ll go online and come back is what percent of your overall mortgage originations are sold direct to Fannie and Freddie of your total originations on an annualized basis or roughly speaking?

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Okay.

Dave Cone

Management

So on the land side, Ivy, are you getting to how much of that do we have in the pipeline already?

Ivy Zelman

Analyst

Yes, I guess that’s what I’m trying to say. Like you approved it, you’ve been in due diligence, you’ve been on the land development side.

Dave Cone

Management

Yes, so '16 is obviously we’re done; '17 we’re probably 95% there. So most of the land buying we’re doing now is '18 and beyond.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Yes, and I think the other thing, Ivy, which obviously you recognized is that a lot of the spend that’s going out, that $1 billion that Dave spoke of, those are deals that could have been approved 12 to 24 months ago.

Ivy Zelman

Analyst

That’s what I wanted to make sure people understood, so that’s exactly right.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Yes, so you’re exactly right there. A good chunk of that came into the year already preapproved before they could be takedowns over a long-term period. Specifically on what we’re selling to the agencies, I think what you’re getting to is jumbo, recognizing some of the chatter that’s been out there. We now have the ability to sell directly to Fannie on the conforming business. But as you might know that it’s pretty new for us. So we have that outlet if necessary and we’re glad to have it. But we’re actually not having any problems selling jumbo product off of our lines.

Ivy Zelman

Analyst

Great. Thanks, guys. Good luck.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Rehaut with JPMorgan.

Michael Rehaut

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Thanks. Good morning.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Good morning, Michael.

Michael Rehaut

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Just had one question around the – bigger kind of picture question around the gross margins. And I know you’ve obviously reiterated guidance for this year despite the better than expected performance in the first quarter. But as we look out and I know that you kind of sometimes refrain on giving guidance further than this year what you’ve already – you don’t give more than one year. But just over the next two to three years if you could just kind of remind us where that low to mid-18% should go. If we have a situation where, again, you’re looking at kind of a stable home price cost environment, certainly the underwriting you’d expect to do, obviously most builders are in the low 20 to 20s type of range. As you grow the business, I would assume also the interest amortization leverage improves. Any thoughts around the next two or three years directionally from the gross margin level would be helpful, I think.

Dave Cone

Management

Yes, Michael, you hit on a lot of the key factors. So if you look at a low 20s environment, as we get scale, it’s obviously going to help us from an interest perspective. Also, we’re continuing with some of the purchased price accounting and that needs to roll off over, call it the next year or so. And then in addition to that, there is a component of new markets typically taking time to gain scale, get the benefits from national, regional rebates and cost advantages. So margins initially start off a bit lower but in time we try to work them up more so to the company average. So given a lot of the acquisitions that we had now, plus where we are from a spec perspective. I talked about our desire to kind of accelerate some of the spec sales here this year to get that number down on a per community basis to about one. It’s putting some short-term pressure but as we work through that, I think you should see something more normal for us going forward.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

I think I’d add to that, Michael, from a long-term perspective, some of the things I spoke about in my prepared comments around planned production. If you look at the growth the company has had over the last 24 months, we really have the opportunity to advantage ourselves from the growth that we’ve had and make sure that our efficiency levels are where they need to be. And with Alan’s arrival, we have wonderful initiatives that will continue to allow us I believe to get what the market gives us and make sure that we can get more than our fair share.

Michael Rehaut

Analyst · JPMorgan.

That’s very helpful. And then I guess on the flipside, the SG&A continues to be an area of relative strength and I think kind of at the better end of the peer group. As the company continues to grow over the next couple of years, do you think there is some incremental room to improve there because at some point the incremental variable equals where you are? And so it kind of gets tougher every year but certainly you’d expect perhaps a little bit of leverage as you grow. Is that the right way to think about it?

Dave Cone

Management

That is. I mean we do expect some leverage. Obviously, if you’re using 60 as kind of the compare point, we have expenses rolling through related to M&A and integration. Again, as well as the new market typically run a little bit higher SG&A, not to mention the investments that we’ve made back into the organization, as I mentioned more so from the people system standpoint. So this is to help prepare us for that future growth, Michael. And that’s going to help drive the leverage. So it’s going to come through the top line as we move forward.

Michael Rehaut

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Great. Thanks very much.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Thanks, Michael.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Nishu Sood with Deutsche Bank.

Nishu Sood

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Thank you, and thanks for all the detail in the prepared commentary. My first question is about the trend in gross margins from 1Q to 2Q. Dave, you mentioned that the efforts to reduce specs will be a primary factor in causing the trend line to fall in gross margins into the second quarter. So a couple of things around that. Is that the main factor? What gives you the confidence that the gross margins will have a strong enough trend in the back half of the year to keep you on track for the full year guidance? And also around the reducing spec, you’re being aggressive in terms of reducing spec. I just wanted to dig into that a little bit. 1.5 is not a huge number relative to some of the numbers we see out there for other builders trying to get it down to one. It is the spring season, so you would think you’d have the luxury of taking a little bit more time especially with the demand factor up being things stable and decent. Specs might actually help to mitigate some of the delivery issues in some markets. So why be so aggressive on spec at this time enough that it’s going to kind of temporarily derail the gross margin trend?

Dave Cone

Management

Thanks, Nishu. I guess first I want to emphasize we’re not changing our underlying spec strategy. That’s still a very critical component due to our overall strategy. What we’re really talking about is just managing it more efficiently. We want to really focus on selling the specs and getting in a position to close it when we’re done with construction. So it’s really that lag time at how long they sit out there finished before we close them.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

And just to add to that, Dave, just to make sure that what you’re talking about is our finished spec strategy. So that 1 to 1.5 is finished spec, it’s not total spec.

Nishu Sood

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Got it, okay. So that makes sense. And then in terms of the confidence, what are the factors that are going to – or what gives you the confidence that what you’re seeing in your backlog on the spec versus the to-be-built margins, what gives you the confidence that it will rise in the back half of the year?

Dave Cone

Management

Yes, well let’s maybe start with Q2 because the spec obviously plays a component and it’s also purchased accounting. So we have probably about 30 basis points of impact there. And if I were to look at Q2 relative to the year, this is kind of the peak year for the purchased accounting and the spec as far as impact on the margin and the quarter. We did beat our guidance in Q1, so some of this is a little bit – was a pull forward into Q1 taken that out of Q2. But the backlog when we look at Q3, that’s what really gives the confidence. We’re showing backlog north of 18% as we move through the rest of the year. So unlike last year where Q2 was kind of our peak margin for the year and 2016 Q2 is going to be the low point for the year, but it is going to trend higher than through the rest of Q3, Q4.

Nishu Sood

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Got it, very helpful. My second question is kind of a similar flavor question on SG&A. You had great closings growth in 1Q, 31% well above I think the 10% to 15% you’re guiding for the year. But SG&A leverage was negative in terms of – the SG&A percentage is higher than it was a year ago. You’re still expecting the full year SG&A to be on track. So you kind of mentioned it, Dave, but I just wanted to dig into it a little bit. It sounds like there were some significant integration expenses in 1Q. Is the fade on the integration expenses what gets you back to being flat on a year-over-year basis on SG&A or what are the main factors there please?

Dave Cone

Management

Yes, it’s really two things. So what we’re really seeing is short-term deleverage here in the first half. So it is a couple of things. M&A costs and then some integration cost as we continue to work through that. That is definitely having an impact. But we’re also having to anniversary some of the investments that we made kind of Q2, Q3, a little bit into Q4 of last year. So as we lap that for Q1, it is our toughest compare. As we look to the back half, we actually expect to leverage the back half on SG&A.

Nishu Sood

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Got it, okay. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mike Dahl with Credit Suisse.

Mike Dahl

Analyst · Credit Suisse.

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Hi, Mike.

Mike Dahl

Analyst · Credit Suisse.

Hi. Sheryl, I wanted to go back to a couple of your answers to Ivy’s questions just to maybe elaborate a little more just since there are some heightened sensitivities in the market around California in particular. So just to confirm again, it sounds like when you walk through your portfolio, you’re seeing this as primarily a product issue and kind of temporary positioning in comps and you are not seeing a step back in the high end buyer in California. Is that fair? And if so, maybe you could also touch on Marblehead specifically and how you’re seeing that project and demand play out?

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Yes, that’s a fair question, Mike. Specifically, are we seeing a step back? No. Did we see through the quarter different trends? We absolutely did. So this isn’t just California but we absolutely saw it in California too. January was good, February was a little better and March really wasn’t. It was slightly down. April has picked up significantly specifically in our California market. So I would point to that being a slowdown in the market, I think some of it’s in timing, like I said. The devil’s really in the detail when I dig and I look at the absorption, I look at when new communities are coming on line when we’re basically sitting there with closed out product in other communities. And then when I look at some of the new stuff that’s opening in April and the success we’ve had, I’m still good. Now having said that, as I’ve always said we don’t sell to a specific kind of global pace. It’s based on the underwriting we do for every community. And so for example, if we’re introducing new communities in southern Cal that have an average – $1.5 million, we’re not expecting to do those at the same pace in Newport that we might have in Costa Mesa for an attached product. So I know we like to do a year-over-year compare but for us what we really hold ourselves to is making sure that these communities are performing for the underwriting. Specific to Marblehead, which I think was the last part of your question and then you’ll have to tell me if I missed anything, Michael, is it actually follows a very similar trend line that I just articulated. First quarter; January was okay, February was okay, March was kind of slow and April bounced back and we were actually way over budget in March. So I like to see that that will continue but we haven’t seen anything specific to the high end buyer in any of our California markets.

Mike Dahl

Analyst · Credit Suisse.

Okay, great. And you didn’t miss anything there but it sounds like so everything is – maybe there are some puts and takes through the first four months of the year but net, you’re performing to underwriting.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Yes, I would have been surprised if we hadn’t seen some kind of movement given the volatility in the stock market. I think as I said last quarter, generally people are being a little bit more cautious and I also think they have more choices than they did a year ago not just in Taylor Morrison. But I think the decision process is taking a little longer.

Mike Dahl

Analyst · Credit Suisse.

Fair. And then on Dallas specifically because I think you highlighted that as being a very strong market and certainly something that we hear and others have said. But then it sounded like you made a comment that your sales were still off a little bit. And so just wanted to understand is there something going on there in terms of similar issues in terms of product positioning or community count that we should be aware of that’s keeping that sales pace depressed in Dallas relative to what looks to be a strong market?

Sheryl Palmer

Management

No, it’s a great market. You have that exactly right, Michael. No, Dallas truly as I mentioned – hopefully I mentioned in my prepared remarks. Dallas – or rather in my first question with Ivy, Dallas is really about the timing of our closeouts in the first quarter and the ramp up what we’re selling for models or what we’re selling for trailers. So no, we feel very, very good about the Dallas market. April when we actually got the merchandize that continues to be very strong. So no, don’t take any signals there at all.

Mike Dahl

Analyst · Credit Suisse.

Okay. And one last one for Dave maybe. I think you made a comment around some of the – or maybe Sheryl made the comment, but some of the comments around Houston labor easing. And Dave, I think last call you had mentioned when we think about the Houston margin maybe we see incentives pick up a little bit but you do expect to see some of that easing and labor pressures offset. So can you kind of talk through how the experience has actually been and are you seeing enough of easing in labor pressures to offset anything that you’re seeing on the incentive side in Houston specifically?

Dave Cone

Management

Yes, we definitely have started to see some easing in the Houston labor as we move through into last year. So maybe a little bit of that where we got year end in the first quarter but a lot of that we’re going to see as we move through the next couple of quarters. But yes, our belief is still that the benefit we get there will probably be traded off with some incentives. So we’re in the same point.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

And I think the good news around Houston, if I could add to Dave’s comment, is we’re seeing it on the labor side but we’re also seeing it on the land side. For the first time in a long time we’re seeing a different level of discussions with land sellers, our ability to negotiate. Price is always the last to happen but we are seeing it in term. We’re seeing it in a willingness for this talk. And so it’s going to take a little time to get that all through the P&L on both the land and the construction. But I think we have some opportunities ahead.

Mike Dahl

Analyst · Credit Suisse.

Great. Thank you.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jack Micenko with SIG.

Jack Micenko

Analyst · SIG.

Hi. Good morning.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Good morning.

Jack Micenko

Analyst · SIG.

I think in the prepared comments you had said Houston was 10%. I’m just curious, was that land or is that dollars or how do we put that 10% in context?

Sheryl Palmer

Management

It was inventory. It was real estate inventory, Jack.

Jack Micenko

Analyst · SIG.

Okay, great. And then getting back to Nishu’s question on the specs, is any of that some alignment with sort of integrating the acquisitions more and maybe more aligning?

Sheryl Palmer

Management

No.

Jack Micenko

Analyst · SIG.

Now it’s just across the board.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

No. I just want to make sure that everyone understands the message. As Dave said, this is not a change in strategy. This is a discipline within the organization that you want to sell, we love that, and they’re an important part of our short and long-term strategy. But what you really want to do with specs is sell them before they’re complete and close them within the months that they complete. And so we think from just a pure discipline standpoint in the field, it makes sense to carry one finished spec on average per community compared to one and a half to make sure that we’re turning those and that we have a good cadence around our strategy, the kinds of spec, the way we merchandize our spec. So that’s what it is. It’s actually just a good business practice.

Jack Micenko

Analyst · SIG.

Okay. And then just one real quick one, [indiscernible] ticked up a little, was that mostly out of the central market?

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Yes.

Jack Micenko

Analyst · SIG.

Okay, all right. Thanks for taking the questions.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

You bet.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Patrick Kealey with FBR.

Patrick Kealey

Analyst · FBR.

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

You bet.

Patrick Kealey

Analyst · FBR.

So just wanted to focus on I think you said you saw 23% kind of year-over-year growth to start off the quarter in April. Is there any particular market that was driving it so far or was that essentially broad-based kind of ex-Houston, if you will?

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Yes, pretty broad based across all markets and I would – as I said in my comments, Patrick, even that Houston still down because it’s up against some tough comp, it still compared to what we’ve seen over the last six months plus really, really good. So it was really across the whole portfolio I’m delighted to report.

Patrick Kealey

Analyst · FBR.

Okay, great. And also think you mentioned for kind of your mortgage services business, first-time buyers made up 31% and I think millennials were 25%. So can you maybe give us what that split looked like maybe a year ago just for comparison purposes? And then maybe if you could also kind of give us some color on what you’ve actually seen out of the first-time buyer cohort to start out the year? I think that would be helpful.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Yes, I can do that. So first-time buyers if I were to give you a compare – sorry, give me one second. It’s absolutely up from about 28% through first-time buyers to 31% in 2016. And as I also mentioned, our boomer buyer is also up. The other interesting that came out is because I think it’s important when we talk about first-time buyers. We’re also tracking millennial buyers very, very closely. And when I look at millennials, interestingly enough, Ellie Mae just put out a report this week on kind of millennial borrowers around the country and recognizing this is a cohort of about 87 million, about 90% of them said they want to buy a home one day. And when I look at our millennials and how that aligns to Ellie Mae, we’re pretty consistent generally running somewhere in that low 30% across most of our markets. But I think it helps to sell the discussion that millennials aren’t homebuyers.

Patrick Kealey

Analyst · FBR.

Okay, great. Thank you.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

You bet.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jay Mccanless with Sterne, Agee.

Jay Mccanless

Analyst · Sterne, Agee.

Hi. My questions have been answered. Thank you.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Thanks, Jay.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Alvaro Lacayo with Gabelli & Company.

Alvaro Lacayo

Analyst · Gabelli & Company.

Good morning, guys.

Dave Cone

Management

Good morning.

Alvaro Lacayo

Analyst · Gabelli & Company.

I just had a quick follow up on just order pace on the West. I mean you guys sort of detailed the moving pieces in California. Was California the only reason there was a bit of softness in order pace year-on-year? And then there was a comment about sort of normalized pace in one of your segments within California. How should we think about the order pace in the West going forward for the rest of the year?

Sheryl Palmer

Management

If I look at the first quarter and the orders being flat, it was California. Denver was generally flat, a few units maybe. So California was down, Arizona was up and Denver was generally flat.

Dave Cone

Management

And we had obviously Chicago in there which wasn’t in there last year.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Yes, our smallest market. So it was really California that made up the total numbers.

Alvaro Lacayo

Analyst · Gabelli & Company.

Got it, okay. And then just on backlog conversion, it was stronger year-on-year. Just wondering how you think about it for the rest of the year? And I know you mentioned some puts and takes and Houston labor easing, but just some of the drivers of the stronger conversion and if you expect to see that in the next coming quarters?

Dave Cone

Management

I think you’ll see the conversions more or less in mind was last year, probably in the second and third quarters and probably something similar for the fourth quarter.

Alvaro Lacayo

Analyst · Gabelli & Company.

Okay, great. That’s it for me. Thank you.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. Our next question comes from Alex Barron with the Housing Research Center.

Alex Barron

Analyst · the Housing Research Center.

Thanks. Good morning. I was hoping you can comment a little bit more on Texas, what do you expect the direction of your community count in Houston I guess to go the remainder of the year? Is your strategy to just let communities wear off as they close out or are you guys still trying to kind of maintain a flat community count [ph]?

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Our Houston market when I look at what’s coming on and off the line this year, it’s generally I think pretty flat when I combine both the Darling Houston and the Taylor Morrison Houston business. Then I look at the one opening and coming down, so generally flat.

Alex Barron

Analyst · the Housing Research Center.

Okay. And then can you comment a little more on why Dallas you said was down a little bit? Is that timing of communities or is that signaling maybe that market has kind of hit a peak you think?

Sheryl Palmer

Management

No, it’s not any signal. It’s absolutely the timing of – when I look at what we had opened first quarter last year from a compare and the timing of our closeouts in first quarter and our new openings, a number of communities we had opened in first part of this year. We’re kind of entering that closeout mode, so they’re just going to have the same level of product. And then we had a number of new communities coming online and maybe models not open kind of a presale environment, so no. As we got those open actually in April we saw some great resilience. So no, no signals about the market, just facts based on kind of year-over-year mix.

Alex Barron

Analyst · the Housing Research Center.

Great. Thanks so much.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Thank you so much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We have no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over to Sheryl Palmer for closing remarks.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Thank you all for joining us today and have a wonderful afternoon.