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TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC)

Q4 2025 Earnings Call· Fri, Mar 27, 2026

$5.08

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the metals company Fourth Quarter 2025 Corporate Update Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Craig Shesky, Please go ahead, sir.

Craig Shesky

Analyst

Thank you very much. Please note that during this call, certain statements made by the company will be forward-looking and based on management's beliefs and assumptions from information available at this time. These statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties, many of which may be beyond our control. Additionally, please note that the company's actual results may differ materially from those anticipated, and except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement. Our remarks today may also include non-GAAP financial measures, including with respect to free cash flows and additional details regarding these non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in our slide deck being used with this call. You're welcome to follow along with our slide deck or if joining us by phone, you can access it at any time at investors.metals.co. I'd now like to turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Gerard Barron. Gerard, please go ahead.

Gerard Barron

Analyst

Thank you, Craig, and apologies to those on the line who -- we are a few minutes late. We're waiting for a wide across the line. But welcome to you all. And before we get to the path forward, I'd like to take a moment to reflect on our journey over the last year. One year ago to the day in our fourth quarter earnings call, we announced a regulatory pivot that fundamentally changed our company's destiny. Instead of the uncertainty and gridlock of the ISA, we chose the certainty and clarity of the U.S. regulatory regime built upon a long-established legal framework under DSHMRA and catalyzed by the political will of this administration. In April, this political will was made evident by the executive -- President Trump's executive order, unleashing America's offshore critical minerals and resources, which marked America's return to leadership in deep seabed minerals. Some of the directives in this EO have already been delivered, including the modernization of NOAA [Technical Difficulty]

Craig Shesky

Analyst

Gerard, sorry to interrupt. Your line is cutting in and out.

Gerard Barron

Analyst

Road map for [Technical Difficulty] in 2026, we focused on accelerated execution, starting with permitting. Our consolidated application submitted to NOAA in January of this year has been deemed substantially compliant, and we expect our permit to be granted in less than 1 year from today. This permitting clarity also provides confidence to us and our partners to get building in anticipation of commercial production. Offshore, we have reached commercial agreement on key terms with our long-term strategic partner, Allseas, and continue to progress the engineering work for the long lead items for our forthcoming production system, and we expect this agreement to be finalized in the coming days. Onshore, it's also clear that the U.S. wants to dominate the onshore processing and refining polymetallic nodules, establishing a counter to China's stranglehold on the production of critical minerals. To do that will require support from the government itself requisite [Technical Difficulty] at the Port of Brownsville, Texas and have also reached agreement with our partner, Mariana Minerals to progress this feasibility work as part of the TMC owners team, but more on this shortly. Since day 1, we knew success would depend on building a bench of exceptional partners and with the expertise to tackle complex challenges and the conviction to back a new industry. And as this chart shows, we've brought together a strong group of experienced partners across the value chain, each bringing a unique skill set to our vision of reimagining the metals and mining sector. What's changed and what matters is momentum. Many of our existing partners have deepened their commitments, reinforcing their belief in the long-term opportunity. We're also welcoming new partners who share our belief that this industry will be built in the United States. That growing alignment is a clear validation of where…

Craig Shesky

Analyst

Thanks, Gerard. One quick note that we shared actually in recent weeks in our social accounts. We recently joined the Defense Industrial based Consortium, DIBC, partnership within the Department of [indiscernible] and investment prioritization direct [Technical Difficulty] of our capabilities. This initiative gives the government the tools that need to provide with commercial solutions that can help close supply chain vulnerabilities and strengthen the defense industrial base. And of course, critical minerals and seabed are focused for the U.S. and allies. And over the past year, we've seen investors and operators effectively vote with their feet, gravitating toward regulatory frameworks that offer clarity and a credible path to commercialization. While the ISA remains in gridlock, the U.S. has emerged as a leading jurisdiction and certain allies are relying upon the U.S. and certain areas of expertise to develop seabed resources. This shift is being echoed at the government level, while in March, the U.S. and Japan announced a new critical minerals action plan with an explicit focus on accelerating cooperation on commercially viable deep sea mining. And against this backdrop, we remain the only seabed mineral developer with SEC compliant mineral reserves, which is the clearest definition of commercial viability, positioning us at the forefront of this emerging industry. In January, NOAA finalized revisions to accelerate permitting under the Deep Seabed Hard Minerals Resources Act, introducing a consolidated application process that meaningfully streamlines the path to commercial recovery. And TMC moved quickly to take advantage of that clarity, submitting the first consolidated application under this new framework. This application expands our expected commercial recovery area from 25,000 square kilometers to approximately 65,000 square kilometers and is designed to significantly reduce permitting time lines. Importantly, it reflects the strength of our technical readiness and our ability to meet NOAA requirements for…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from the line of Heiko Ihle with H.C. Wainwright.

Heiko Ihle

Analyst

Can you guys hear me?

Craig Shesky

Analyst

Good morning, Heiko. Yes, we can.

Gerard Barron

Analyst

Good morning, Heiko, yes.

Heiko Ihle

Analyst

I'm very intrigued by those negotiations for the module processing and refining hub in Brownsville, obviously, given recent geopolitical risk factors that have just been going up quite a bit and just in general uncertainties that are going on, I think this might be quite interesting. A couple of things on that. Can you walk us through what you see an impact with the shipping expenses if this Brownsville hub goes ahead and maybe quantify it?

Gerard Barron

Analyst

Sure. I think the -- look, there are many exciting options about bringing material straight to the U.S. and shipping is one of them. Energy costs, of course, is another because the biggest input into our cost base when we process nodules is energy. And we applaud this administration for realizing that abundant energy leads to prosperity. And that's -- there's no better example of that than the U.S. compared to some other markets. And it's our estimate that you can actually process nodules cheaper in the site where we've located, Brownsville, Texas compared to China or Indonesia or Japan because of energy costs. And so -- but shipping is also better as well. And it does mean having to bring them through the Panama Canal. And it will also -- the site we've chosen does have some deepwater berths available to it. They won't take the biggest ships that are available and that we'd like to use, but in time, we think they can. And -- but no firm numbers, but improvements to be made.

Heiko Ihle

Analyst

And then I know it's early, but can you walk me through -- and you may not even have all these answers yet. But can you walk me through key permits and time lines you think we need to build all this infrastructure, please?

Craig Shesky

Analyst

Yes. It's important to note, Heiko, too. I mean, what we're beginning here is site-specific feasibility work. At the same time, what I can say is that the particular site we're looking at does have many permits. We continue to have continued discussions, very positive discussions with Governor Abbott's office in Texas and other agencies there. But it's important to note, a lot of this is going to be for a prerequisite of us making plans and moving forward, going to be dependent on some of the support we get at the federal level. So really, the key permit here is the grant of a commercial recovery permit by NOAA. And certainly, when we're talking to various agencies and cabinet departments, it is that permit that would unlock, we think, a lot of the support and potential investment for a facility like this. And one of the reasons I think that you're seeing TMC engage in some of this work on feasibility as well as us alongside our partner, Allseas, progress engineering work and beginning to think about ordering these long lead time items is due to our confidence in the grant of that commercial recovery permit in a timely manner.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Matthew O'Keefe with Cantor Fitzgerald.

Matthew O'Keefe

Analyst

Yes, just a question. I want to follow up on Heiko's Texas question there. You are working on a feasibility study there. It sounds like Mariana is going to be a part of that. What's the timing on getting that done? And will we get to see sort of the results of that?

Gerard Barron

Analyst

Yes, sure. Well, certainly, Mariana will be playing an important role as part of our owners team. We already have Hatch working on the refresh of that -- of the PFS, which is based on bringing all those numbers to a Brownsville site. But we anticipate -- and that will be ready very soon. But we also anticipate well before the end of the year, having a, I guess, in the old language, a BFS on what we're planning to put on the ground in Texas. And so the date that has been talked about is end of October, and so not far away. And we certainly expect Hatch and others to be involved in that as well.

Matthew O'Keefe

Analyst

And that's a good group. And then is that going to be a hydromet facility? Or are you going to look at an option of doing sort of the RCEF front end like you're going to be doing in Japan?

Gerard Barron

Analyst

Yes, that's the exciting part. For the last -- since -- in fact, since Dr. Jeffrey Donald joined our group and pivoted us back to more of a pyro front end, that's where we've been building lots of expertise on how we get raw nodules into those intermediate products. And the plan is to build the pyro in Brownsville, if we were to go down that pathway. We're very fortunate that we have an amazing technical partner in Japan that we continue to have a great working relationship with. And -- but boy, a nickel refinery, a nickel processing plant hasn't been built in 80 years yet here in America, yet the demand for nickel is going at an increasing clip. We know it's needed to make every ton of stainless steel. We know it's used in super alloys. We know it's used across AI and data centers and military uses and electrification. And so the uses and the demand for it is going up, yet we import 100% of our nickel. So something is not kind of a fit there, Matt. So there's an opportunity, I guess. And we just see that this might be that moment where the administration says, yes, we want to fix that problem.

Matthew O'Keefe

Analyst

Yes. No, for sure. That's why I was kind of asking, it seems like a pretty exciting turn and would love to see the numbers on that. More on that, just switching off the processing back to the recovery. You said you're sort of getting long lead time items, I'm assuming for Hidden Gem and the whole -- that whole process. So what would you anticipate -- assuming you get your permit within 12 months, what would you anticipate the timing to get Hidden Gem back on the water? And do you foresee it being as is or with additional collector capacity?

Gerard Barron

Analyst

Yes. We are still standing by our guidance of commissioning Q4 next year. And it will -- we've elected to run with a 2-collector model. And so that is -- basically gives us the opportunity to get out on the water. I guess that will be early '28. And we'll kick off with one collector in production, but we'll soon move to a second collector being in production as well. And so as you well know, we have a production boat that is production ready now just on a production number that's not high enough. And so we want to see a higher production number because the more tonnes you amortize over the cost of the floating steel above, the better the economics. And I think we proved in 2022 that we can do this reliably at commercial scale. So now it's about making money.

Craig Shesky

Analyst

It's important to note, Matt, too, the connective tissue for the ramp-up offshore, but then also what the potential processing and refining plans might be onshore. Certainly, this administration wants to be able to say, if we can bring this back domestically, it's helpful to be able to do it during this administration. And the way you do that is ramp up in relatively bite-sized amounts, starting, let's say, with production capacity that could handle nodules coming from a vessel like the Hidden Gem, which has 3 million tons per annum nominal capacity. So kind of matching as best we can ramp up for both the offshore production and then having a home for the processing and refining of those nodules is certainly part of the work that we and our team of engineers are doing in the coming months.

Matthew O'Keefe

Analyst

All right. And if I may just ask one more question. On the permitting process, not so much the process, you've made that pretty clear. One of the -- under the NOAA process, there is an additional piece of ground that wasn't covered by the PFS. It wasn't covered by the initial assessment that you've added. I'm just curious sort of why and what your plans are for that? I mean, can you really do any work on that in the near term? And is it infringing on anyone else's claims that might be under the previous permit regime?

Gerard Barron

Analyst

Yes. Look, it was just a natural fit. It was fitting between 2 blocks that we had hold over. And at the end of the day, we will -- while we're out there, continue to take observations of that. And I guess what we'll aim to prove it's a continuous piece of ground, and it doesn't require any particular environmental work done on it. And so -- and we imagine that once production starts out there that there'll be more collaboration between some of the license holders as well. And I think no doubt, there will be some people that end up being granted licenses who don't have production vessels and/or who want help getting their applications through the permitting process. And as you know, we probably know more about that than anyone on this planet. And we're certainly getting a lot of inbound into how we might be willing to collaborate with some players. And I -- and, you know, we see this as preproduction. I think it's -- we want to see more people in production out there. But what I'm pretty certain no one is planning to do is to put plans for a processing plant on the ground anywhere. I see a lot of applicants starting to talk about them being successful at moving to the first phase. We know from that journey, there's a lot of road left in front of them, and we'll be here to help them and maybe supply services to them along the way. And -- but in the meantime, to fully explore just how committed this administration is to bringing a processing plant so we can bring nodes straight to the U.S.A.

Craig Shesky

Analyst

I think we're going to, Michelle, take a few questions potentially from our chat. So there's a question from Jakob Stanski. We mentioned government support is needed for the U.S.-based processing plant. And can we clarify what type of support this means, financial permitting or otherwise? It's a good question, and I think the answer is all of the above. Certainly, as we noted earlier, progressing the commercial recovery permit is the most important prerequisite. We also, of course, would rely upon both at the federal state and local levels, what we think are very supportive administrations to help really make some of these plans a reality. But again, the prerequisite for a lot of this work is site-specific feasibility work. So ensuring that we get that right and are doing it at a place like the Port of Brownsville, where we have truly everything that we need to stand up a potential nodule ecosystem that's going to be critical in our decision to push forward on this. And we do have really the unique ability with this resource of maintaining capital-light options for the processing. So it's not like most ore bodies where you have no choice but to build processing and refining close to where the ore body is. We have flexibility here in the nature of this nodule resource and that you can collect them and ship them really North, South, East or West, but it's the desire of this administration to change the game and kind of release themselves from the stranglehold that China has had on the critical metals. And to do that, as Gerard noted, it's not just a TMC story. So we have the resource and we have the capability to help do this. But we're making all of the decisions, obviously, with…

Gerard Barron

Analyst

Look, I think there are some exciting areas for collaboration, and I wouldn't rule them out.

Craig Shesky

Analyst

I see one more question on the Hidden Gem. Looking at sort of the investment or acquisition of a second vessel like the Hidden Gem, what would be planned before that? Who might manufacture it? Who would the partners be on that front?

Gerard Barron

Analyst

Well, taking a converted drillship and making it fit for picking up nodules proved to be a pretty efficient move. And there's an abundance of those vessels. I saw Transocean recently scrapped 4 of them for quite cheap money. And so that's an option. And we are -- we do have inbound inquiry from people who have vessels who would like to use them. Of course, the vessel is the first step. The operator is the important one. And just to be clear, Allseas want to operate more vessels in the CCZ, and we want them to operate more vessels for us in this area. And so -- and obviously, there are efficiencies in having similar type vessels from a parts, from administration perspective. And so stand by.

Craig Shesky

Analyst

Operator, any other questions on the phone line?

Operator

Operator

I'm showing no further questions on the phone lines.

Craig Shesky

Analyst

Okay. Gerard, perhaps over to you.

Gerard Barron

Analyst

Well, yes, yes. Well, thank you, everyone. We've got a lot of very long-term shareholders who have been supporting us since our go public in 2021 and of course, before that, when we were deep green. And it's exciting to see the direction the business is heading. It was exciting to report some of those updates today. It's frustrating not being able to give more regular updates, but we have to be very sensitive in how we message that. To the team and our partners, thank you for an enormous heavy lift from everyone who works at TMC. It's a very dedicated, hard-working team, and it's an honor to work alongside you all. And to our shareholders, thank you for being there and coming with us on this journey and look forward to keeping you updated as updates become available. Over and out.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.