Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. (TKC) Q3 2025 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I'm Constantino, your Chorus Call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Turkcell's conference call and live webcast to present and discuss the Turkcell's Third Quarter 202 Financial Results. [Operator Instructions] The conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Ozlem Yardim, Investor Relations and Corporate Finance Director. Ms. Yardim, you may now proceed.

Thank you, Constantino. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Turkcell's 2025 Third Quarter Earnings Call. On the call today, we have our CEO, Ali Taha Koc; and CFO, Kamil Kalyon. They will provide an overview of our financial and operational results for the quarter, followed by a Q&A session. Before we begin, I would like to kindly remind you to review our safe harbor statement, which is available at the end of our presentation. With that, I will now turn the call over to Mr. Ali Taha. Ali Koç: Thank you, Ozlem. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you all for joining us today. This quarter once again demonstrated Turkcell's strong momentum powered by disciplined operations, sharp execution and the strength of our growth engines. We delivered 11% revenue growth, reaching TRY 60 billion, driven primarily by our core telecommunication business. Strong ARPU performance, a growing subscriber base and rising data center revenues all contributed to this outstanding performance. Group EBITDA increased 11% to TRY 26 billion, achieving a solid 43.9% margin, a clear reflection of our continued cost discipline. In addition to our operational success, prudent financial management strengthened our bottom line. Lifting net income from continuing operations up by 31.8% to TRY 5.4 billion. Competition remained intense this quarter. Even so, we added 569,000 net postpaid subscribers. Through targeted pricing and upselling, mobile ARPU rose 12%, once again proving our ability to deliver double-digit growth in a highly competitive environment. Residential fiber ARPU also grew by 17.3% year-on-year in the third quarter. Our strategic growth areas also continued to perform strongly. Data center and cloud revenues grew 51%, and our renewable energy capacity from solar fields across 4 cities in Turkiye has reached 37.5 megawatt. Next page, please. We are proud to reinforce our leadership with the successful outcome of the 5G spectrum tender, a defining milestone for Turkiye's digital future. The results were exactly in line with our expectations and reaffirm our leadership position. We secured 160 megahertz of spectrum, the maximum capacity available to a single operator in this tender. This allocation enabled us to deliver speeds exceeding 1,000 megabit per second while paving the lowest cost per megahertz per subscriber among all operators. 5G will be commercially launched in April 2026, marking the beginning of a new chapter in Turkiye's digital transformation. It will empower industries such as manufacturing, transport, health care and education with high-speed connectivity to regions that currently lack fiber access. Once 5G officially launches, these customers will be among the first to experience 5G speeds. And just as we have done over the past 30 years, we will continue to lead in this new era of connectivity. We are fully ready to shape Turkiye's 5G future and drive the next wave of digital transformation. Next page, please. Let's take a closer look at the key operational highlights from the third quarter. Competition in the mobile market was strong as we expected, maintaining our dynamic and customer-centric approach, we continue to expand our customer base. We recorded 569,000 net postpaid additions, bringing our total net gains to 2 million over the past 12 months. As a result, our mobile subscriber base exceeded 39 million. Leveraging our AI-driven dynamic micro segmentation approach, we executed our upsell strategies with precision. We offered customers precisely targeted offers, moving the vast majority of our base to higher tier plan. In addition, the share of postpaid subscribers, a key driver of revenue growth, rose by 4.6 percentage points year-on-year to 79%. These efforts, together with higher seasonality, delivered double-digit mobile ARPU growth of 12%, reflecting our continued focus on value-driven growth. Our mobile churn rate was 2.6%, primarily reflecting the ongoing competition and high activity in the number portability market. Next page, please. Now let's move on to our fixed broadband operations. With a focus on fiber customers, we had a net add of 33,000 this quarter, bringing our Turkcell fiber base to over 2.5 million. Including sales over other operators' infrastructure, we introduced 55,000 new customers to high-quality fiber services. Our fiber strategy is best described by a simple principle, high quality and high speed. With this approach, since last year, we remain committed to offering 1,000 megabit per second speeds and delivering greater value to our customers. Year-on-year, the number of subscribers on these plans more than tripled. With effective pricing adjustments, a higher proportion of customers on 100 megabit per second plus plans and 88% commitment rate to 12-month contracts, our residential fiber ARPU grew 17.3% year-on-year in the third quarter. As we continue to strengthen our fiber network, we expanded our footprint with 107,000 new home passes, reaching 6.2 million households. Our 42.6% take-up rate is a clear indication that our fiber investments are effectively planned. Next page, please. Let me now turn on to our strategic areas, beginning with Digital Business Services. Digital Business Services delivered robust 97% revenue growth, reaching TRY 4.9 billion, supported by recurring service income and stronger hardware sales. The backlog from system integration projects reached a remarkable TRY 5 billion. Data center and cloud revenues continued their strong momentum, increasing 51% year-on-year in real terms. We had targeted an 8.4 megawatt capacity expansion at the beginning of 2025, guided by our vision of keeping Turkiye's data within Turkiye, and we successfully activated that capacity in this quarter. Thanks to our early-stage investment, we have established a strong market position, becoming the leading player in the enterprise colocation market. We are preparing for our next strategic move in data centers and cloud businesses, which will further strengthen our leadership. Next page, please. Now moving on to another of our strategic pillars, techfin. Our techfin ecosystem, representing 6% of consolidated revenues achieved 20% year-on-year growth in the third quarter, outpacing the group's overall performance. This growth was mainly driven by our digital payment company, Paycell, which achieved a 42% increase in revenues. Within Paycell, POS and Pay Later services were the key contributors supported by favorable regulatory revisions in mobile payment limits and broader adoption of POS solutions. Our Financell brand, providing customers with fast and flexible financing solutions continued to expand its loan portfolio, reaching TRY 7.5 billion despite the high interest rate environment. The net interest margin improved to 5%, driven by more favorable funding costs. Financell continued to support the sales of Samsung A26, locally manufactured 5G smartphone exclusive for Turkcell with a total of 54,000 contracted sales since its launch in April. Next page, please. Despite global geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds, we delivered performance that exceed our expectations over the first 9 months of the year. In line with these strong results and the revised CPI outlook, we are upgrading our 2025 guidance. Reflecting our solid momentum and confidence in the sustainability of our results, we are revising our revenue growth expectations upwards to around 10% and raising our EBITDA margin target to 42% to 43% range. Even as we continue our intensive investment cycle, we are revising our operational CapEx to sales target to around 23%, mainly driven by the acceleration in revenue recognition. As for our data center and cloud revenues, we are also revising our growth guidance upwards to around 43%. With that, I will now hand over to our CFO, Mr. Kamil Kalyon, to walk us through the financial highlights.

Thank you very much, Ali Taha. We had a solid quarter driven by continued momentum in our core business and techfin expansion. We achieved 11.2% year-on-year revenue growth, fueled by strong execution across our key business lines. Turkcell Turkiye remained the main top line driver, contributing TRY 5.5 billion of additional revenue. This was supported by double-digit real ARPU growth, a larger postpaid base and solid performance from digital business services. Techfin added TRY 569 million in revenue, driven by solid growth at Paycell, particularly across POS and mobile payment verticals. On profitability, margins reflected our ongoing investments to enable 5G rollout and to capture the strong growth momentum in Paycell transaction volumes. At the same time, personnel and energy costs contributed positively to our overall performance. Overall, we maintained a solid profitability level, demonstrating the strength of our operating leverage and disciplined cost management. Next slide, please. Profit from continuing operations increased 31.8% year-on-year to TRY 5.4 billion, reflecting focused execution and effective cash management. EBITDA contribution totaled TRY 2.5 billion for the quarter, remaining the key driver of profit growth. Despite persistent competition, Turkcell sustained its leadership through a clear strategic focus and efficient execution. We prudently managed our net finance income and expenses this quarter, resulting in a year-on-year contribution of TRY 1.5 billion. With FX depreciation decreased to nearly half of last year's level, we recorded a positive FX impact of TRY 912 million. Despite a higher nominal debt level versus Q3 2024, our strong financial discipline and proactive funding strategy led to a decline in interest expenses to TRY 677 million. Meanwhile, although interest income remained limited, returns were supported by a well-diversified and efficiently managed investment portfolio. Our strong cash position, together with the slower inflation growth year-on-year resulted in a monetary loss this quarter. Next slide, please. Turning to our investment strategy with a clear focus on 5G readiness. CapEx intensity was 17.4% this quarter, reflecting our continued commitment to strengthening network infrastructure and preparing for next-generation technologies. With the largest spectrum allocation secured from the 5G tender, we are maintaining our investment momentum at full speed. This quarter, approximately 80% of CapEx was directed towards our core businesses, mobile and fixed broadband. Our base station fiberization rate surpassed 45% this quarter, laying the groundwork for a seamless and efficient 5G transition. In our data centers, we activated an additional 8.4 megawatts of IT capacity, bringing the total to 50 megawatts. On the renewables side, solar capacity reached 37.5 megawatts with further expansion expected in Q4. We have started to see savings from renewable energy investments this year with a more visible impact expected in 2026. Given the expected ramp-up in 5G investments and seasonal factors in Q4, we continue to manage our CapEx with a disciplined and value-focused approach. Our revised guidance reflects both the progress of our investment programs and our commitment to efficient capital allocation. Next slide, please. Moving now to our balance sheet. Our cash position reached TRY 122 billion in Q3. The second dividend installment will be paid in Q4, while under the 5G tender, the first 2 installments are scheduled for 2026. We consider our current liquidity as strong, sufficient to cover upcoming 5G payments and debt service over the next 2.5 years. We are well prepared, having issued a Eurobond earlier this year and secured Murabaha fundings on favorable terms in the first half. Our net leverage ratio increased slightly to 0.2x, but remains comfortably within healthy levels, reflecting our continued financial discipline. Given the 5G payment schedule, we expect leverage to remain below 1x in the upcoming periods. Debt repayments of around USD 1 billion are expected to be completed by year-end, of which USD 800 million is denominated in foreign currency. Next slide, please. Finally, a brief update on our FX risk management, 81%. As of Q3, we held USD 3.9 billion FX debt and USD 3 billion FX-denominated financial assets and USD 800 million derivatives portfolio. We maintain a dynamic FX risk management strategy. We actively manage a short-term derivatives portfolio to mitigate potential FX volatility while accounting for higher hedging costs. We closed the quarter in a neutral FX position. Following the acquisition of the 5G license, our net foreign exchange position is expected to increase. We will closely monitor market conditions and proactively manage this position over the next 1.5 years until the full 5G license payments are completed. Therefore, during this period, we will not apply our neutral position definition. That concludes our presentation. We look forward to addressing your questions. Thank you very much.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Singh Maddy with HSBC.

My first question is on your CapEx and dividend outlook, especially given the recent 5G auction win. I wonder -- for this year, you have given the guidance for CapEx, so that's fine. But I was wondering whether next year, we should expect a significant jump in the CapEx to sales intensity and whether this spectrum payment is going to affect the dividend payments at all? So that's the first question. And then the second question is on your pricing action during the quarter? Did you increase any prices? And how was the competitive response to that? Are you comfortable around the pricing environment? So that's the second one. And then the final one, actually on your final comment about the net short FX position, you said the definition will not be applicable going forward. So can you please explain what do you mean by that? And how should we think about the FX losses going forward, yes?

Thank you very much, Maddy, for the questions. First question and third question will be responded by me. First of all, -- for the next year, CapEx intensity, we are not expecting higher jumps. As you know, starting of this year, we declared 24% CapEx sales ratio for this year. Now we revised it to 23%. For the next year period, we do not -- we will not be in a position exceeding the 24% around the CapEx intensity levels will be around this 24%. We will see the budget figures that will come from the business lines. The other one, as you know, our dividend policy is distributing our 50% net income of the year. We are proposing to the general assembly and general assembly decided. As you know, we have -- as [indiscernible] said, we are a very dividend-friendly company. And if you chase our company, we will be -- we have been distributing dividends for many years period. Therefore, for the 2026, our AGM has not been decided about this issue, but our dividend policy is still distributing the 50% of the net income. For the third question, as you know, we are declaring our FX position as minus -- plus USD 200 million. And when we look at the 5G tender, the results and officially, the tender results will be ratified by the governmental bodies approximately in January 2026. Therefore, the FX position -- net FX position or this liability will be in our balance sheet starting from 2026. Therefore, we will look at the position at that time. But as Ali mentioned, the 5G tender price will be paid within 3 installments. In the first installment will be in January 2026. Therefore, it means that 1/3 of the tender price plus 20% VAT amount, which corresponds 44% or 45% of the total amount will be paid in January 2026. Therefore, we will look at the -- our FX position in January 2026, and we will decide how we will manage this FX position starting from 2026. As you know, the decision will be taken under the scope of the macroeconomical conditions, hedging costs and Turkish internal macroeconomic conditions. Therefore, we will see it in January 2026. I will hand over the mic for the second question to Mr. Ali. Ali Koç: Regarding the price adjust, I will divide this question into two different parts, mobile side and the fixed side. For the -- as the leading mobile operator and the leader and the biggest operator, mobile operator in Turkiye, we have adjusted our prices in almost every quarter between 2021 and 2024 to reflect the inflationary environment. Considering the slowing pace of inflation and competition conditions in the market, we updated our prices in January and July into 2024. Following 14% price increases implemented in January 2025, we carried out further price adjustments on our micro segmented packages such as youth and regional offers in June and August. On top of price adjustments, thanks to our successful upsell performance, we registered above inflation mobile ARPU growth of 12%. With respect to fixed broadband market, following the competition, we increased prices in December 2023, August 2024, March and October 2025. We are driving ARPU growth by increasing the share of customers within a 12-month commitment, boosting transition to high-speed packages and also widening the price gap between our TV+ bundled offers and data-only packages. This successful efforts and initiatives enables us to outperform inflation and achieve at the fixed market -- fixed broadband market, 17% real growth performance in our residential fiber ARPU. As Turkcell, we continue to focus on value as the main differentiation point from the competition. Hence, rather than competing on price, we focus on creating additional value for our customers. And we will continue to closely monitor market conditions and the competition in the upcoming quarters as well.

If I may ask a follow-up on the spectrum part. So the payment is in hard currency. I was wondering whether the asset itself will be recognized in hard currency as well.

Normally, as you mentioned, the payments will be done in U.S. dollar terms. Therefore, we will -- our liquidity position is fair enough to make all the payments in both in TL side and the U.S. dollar side. Therefore, starting from the January 2026, we will look at the macroeconomical conditions, FX rates, TL rates and the most important one, the hedging rates, for example, hedging costs are very important in order to decide. But as I said, we have enough TL and the U.S. dollar money in our hands. Therefore, we will decide it in January 2026 by taking into consideration the macroeconomical conditions on that date. It's a little bit early to give a guarantee or to give a color how we will make the payments. We can prefer to make dollar payments or maybe we can prefer to make TL payments. But at TL, we will be keeping our U.S. dollar money in our hands, and it will not create additional problem from our perspective.

My question was more on the balance sheet entry on the asset side. So you will recognize the spectrum as an asset, right? But the value, I'm not sure whether that will be put in a lira number or a dollar number.

Normally, it will be included into our balance sheet in 2026, and we will make this capitalization in the TL terms. And as you mentioned -- as you imagine, that starting from 2026, this asset will generate an inflation profit starting from the depreciation in the income side starting from 2026.

The next question comes from the line of [indiscernible] with Barclays.

Congrats on the results. I have just a couple of questions. So my first one is on your 2026 outlook. Do you think that the revenue growth that you've delivered in 2025 or planning to deliver is sustainable going forward given the 5G regime coming? And also -- and also on your profitability, do you think like current margin -- EBITDA margin levels are sustainable for next years? And second question is also on your -- do you have any long-term target for your net leverage? Or maybe where do you see the net leverage ratio next year and going forward after the 5G payments are done? Ali Koç: I can start with the first one. Let me talk a little bit about the current year, the great year and a great quarter. So we had another solid operational and financial results this quarter and which was actually beyond our initial plans. We continue to expand our subscriber base in both mobile and fixed segments, while delivering a real ARPU growth in each quarter of 2025 through our dynamic tariff and pricing management, higher postpaid share, also successful upselling actions and rising demand for high-speed connection also supported our ARPU performance. So consequently, in the first 9 months, our consolidated revenue grew by 12% year-over-year. And also techfin, if you talk about the techfin in the first 9 months, delivered a 25% year-over-year growth, making a very meaningful contribution to our top line. Also, our strategic investments, data center and cloud services also achieved robust revenue growth of 51% compared to the same period last year and significantly exceeding our previous full year 2025 guidance. EBITDA grew by 15%, leading to a 43.7% EBITDA margins. Building on our strong 9-month performance, we have revised our full year both revenue growth and as well as the EBITDA margin expectation and guidance. So to remain prudent while revising our guidance, we also considered the reduced magnitude of price adjustments compared to last year. And we are expecting a very competitive environment in the following years on 2026 expectation as we are in the planning process. It is too early to comment. However, our goal is to maintain our micro segment management strategy, along with our AI-driven technologies, along with our revenue growth initiatives and continue growing above the inflation rate.

For the second question, as I mentioned in my presentation, at the end of this year, we will be paying the second installment of our dividend payment, and we have some additional repayment of debt for 2025. And in January, as I mentioned, we will be paying the 44% of the total tender price for the 5G side. Therefore, our expectation is this leverage ratio would be around 0.7 or 8x. And as I mentioned in my presentation, again, our aim is to keep this level lower than the 1x.

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from the line of [indiscernible] with [indiscernible].

Good results. Actually, all of my questions have been answered.

The next question comes from the line of Demirtas Cemal with Ata Invest.

Congratulations for the good results. My question is rather some technical issues in the income statement. We see monetary loss in third quarter versus like the monetary gain in the previous quarters. Could you just tell us more about the changes that lead to monetary losses in this quarter because it offsets a portion of the higher-than-expected operating profit when we go to the bottom line? And the other question is again about the TOGG participation side, we see lower losses unlike the previous 2 quarters. Do you think it's going to be the permanent? Should we expect lower the losses contribution from the TOGG, your subsidiary side? That's my second question. And again, could you just give any direction about 2026 from your side? And again, I would like to ask what kind of value-added -- the things that could come into surface in 2026 as now the 5G is done, please, in terms of licensing. What are the opportunities rather than the organic growth of the company? What could be changing in 2026 from your perspective?

Cemal, thank you very much for your technical questions. First question regarding the first question, yes, you're right. Our monetary gain declined by TRY 2.4 billion compared to Q3 of 2024. There are certain reasons. One of them is the slowdown in inflation rates. As you know, last year, inflation was in the same period around 8.9%. Now currently, it's declined to 7.5%. Therefore, this is the first reason for the lower monetary gain. The second one and the most important one, as you know, we sold our Ukraine business in 2024. It means that you are taking a significant portion from your balance sheet, especially generating inflationary income in your balance sheet. Therefore, due to this effect, Ukraine subsidiary sale led to a negative composition against nonmonetary assets. And furthermore, the capital reduction executed in our Netherlands company subsidiary in Q4 in 2024 indirectly led to a monetary loss due to indexation in Q3 2025. Therefore, this is the reasons of this one starting...

Sorry for interrupting, but before passing to the next question, when I look at the -- my question is rather compared to second quarter, what -- I know that there might be changes from quarter-to-quarter, but even what changed from second quarter to third quarter? The inflation is higher, the quarter-over-quarter change. I don't know if you have any justification for the Q-over-Q comparison, the year-over comparison fair. Just if you have any comments before answering the next question.

Normally, from Q3 -- Q2 to Q3, you're asking in 2025. Am I right?

Yes, yes, yes.

As far as I remember, we do not have a significant change regarding the year-over-year side. Yes, the Ukraine business is very important for this one. But Q2, Q3, we do not have a significant change in the inflationary side. But as you know, this -- some of the -- how can I say, in the CapEx side, there are some CapEx amounts are eliminated, as you know, for the 5G side and the 4G side. Therefore, this might affect the inflationary accounting side. But in Q2 and Q3, I do not remember the significant result. But starting from Q2 or Q3, we have started to generate inflationary loss for this year. But for -- starting from 2026, our 5G license amounts and the additional CapEx amounts will be included in our balance sheet, and we will be starting to see significant amount of monetary gain in our balance sheet starting from 2026. But for this year, as I mentioned, the main loss item is coming from the Ukraine sale asset and the inflation rates. The second question is regarding the TOGG. As we mentioned in our previous calls, there are some problems, especially in the market -- electric vehicle market in 2025. And starting from the Q2, TOGG started to take the necessary actions for the cost optimization. And as you might remember, there are certain changes in the special consumption tax base in third quarter. And this change led to an increase in vehicle prices, which was also supported by the launch of the new model. Therefore, TOGG recorded a moderate improvement in its performance during this quarter. Most probably this improvement will continue in Q4. Therefore, starting from -- we hope that Q3 2025 would be a significant milestone for the TOGG side. In the coming periods, we are expecting more performance from the TOGG side. But as you know, this is a production investment and there are heavy EBITDA -- amortization expenses of the company. But we are -- we can observe the positive impacts of the precautions that are taken by the TOGG company for this quarter. We hope that this performance will continue in Q4 because you know the new model is also in the markets right now. And there are some extra models are presented to the market, especially 4x for electric vehicles. There are important demand for these cars. Therefore, we will see the positive impact of these actions in the Q4 also. Ali Koç: Regarding the 5G, Cemal, thank you very much for the great question. Yes, 5G era is starting. So starting from April 1, 2026, we are going to launch 5G all over the Turkiye, and it's going to create new value-added services and opportunities. Especially with 5G, a new era of flexible and personalized tariff is the beginning. The age of one-size-fits-all plans is coming to an end. And today, for example, Turkcell serves more than 39 million mobile subscribers, which means 39 million unique tariff possibilities. In this environment, our goal is to maintain the highest level of customer satisfaction by offering plans tailored to each individual's need. We also aim to accelerate 5G adoption because 5G is going to bring high speeds, lower latency, but we need to -- our customers to have 5G phones. So we also aim to accelerate 5G adoption by supporting device financing and establishing new partnerships with smartphone manufacturers. Following our recent collaboration with Samsung, for example, we have already bought 100,000 5G-enabled devices. We plan to -- which are built in Turkiye, domestically produced A26 phones, Samsung phones. We plan to form similar partnership to further increase the number of 5G-ready phones in the market. Through these initiatives, we will make the next-generation devices more accessible as well as drive broader 5G usage across our customer base. So in order to give you a brief information about what is the difference between 4G and 5G, 4G technology was designed primarily for people, but 5G opens the door to a world where machines communicate with each other, enabling smart cities, connected factories, smart factories, industrial automation. And as a new value-added services over the next 5 years, we anticipated that the autonomous driving and connected car sectors will gain momentum in Turkiye. During this period, data consumptions and speed requirements are expected to rise significantly. And additionally, similar increases in data demand, speed requirements will emerge across government services as well as logistics, supply chain, smart manufacturing, the energy sector and smart city ecosystem, driven by the adoption of hybrid and private 5G networks. So stay true that 5G will unlock new revenue opportunities across not only the automotive industry, but also the government services and logistics and energy and smart cities. So as new technologies mature, Turkcell is positioned to be a leading operator, enabling Turkiye digital transformation through 5G and delivering the best and the greatest 5G technology to our customers. So how we are going to do it is the tender is a solid proof for it. So by securing large-scale 5G frequency resources, we gain a significant competitive advantage in both capacity and the quality because we got the highest frequency spectrum. The wider the spectrum will allow us to deliver superior customer experience in densely populated areas, ensuring high speed, low latency connectivity even under heavy network loads. It also enables us to serve a much larger number of people. So we are going to bring this fixed wireless access customers. We call it Superbox 5G, fiber-like performance. Even if you don't have a fiber, we are going to provide you 1,000 megabit per second speeds with our Superbox 5G-enabled boxes. So even if you don't have your fiber in your house in anywhere you go, we are going to provide the best speeds within a wireless domain, and it's going to give you a huge flexibility and then it's going to come up with a huge efficiency.

[Operator Instructions] Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to Turkcell management for any closing comments. Thank you. Ali Koç: Thank you very much for joining us, and I hope to see you in the next quarterly meetings. Thank you very much for attending.

Thank you for joining us. Hope to see you for the year-end results. Thank you.

Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for calling, and have a pleasant evening.